Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42

Johnson will have to have a very publicly pro Brexit cabinet. So Baker etc will have to be brought in (I doubt JRM will take a role on the basis that he 'needs' to stay with the ERG) so whilst Francois would be a disaster I'm not sure that is actually going to play any part in the consideration.

He isn't out being a proxy for Johnson for the good of his health!

FrancieBrady

Leroy42 wrote: »

He isn't out being a proxy for Johnson for the good of his health!

That's why I asked...he seems to be very very pro Johnson...like a man who had been promised something.

Peregrinus

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That's why I asked...he seems to be very very pro Johnson...like a man who had been promised something.

He may have been promised something (though I very much doubt that something is a seat in cabinet). But equally he may not; he could just be very enthusiastic, or very keen to make a good impression.

farmchoice

im starting to think Johnson may be on the verge of orchestrating his own downfall on this one.
its now pretty clear that not only does he not have ''even a sketch of a plan of how to deliver brexit'' he also now realizes the non runner that is no deal. BUT he has backed himself into a corner. he knows and hunt knows that whoever gets it is going to have to talk the tory party down off the ledge, better to leave that to hunt who they can then sack post end of brexit and he can come charging back.
what is the point of becoming the shortest PM in history?

Hermy

Strazdas wrote: »

Population (5.4m people) and it's fairly well off too. A country like that could easily go it alone as an independent state.

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

Sam Russell

Hermy wrote: »

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

But think of all the high skilled remainers in England that would love to move north back into the EU, not to mention the industrial businesses that could not wait to move back into the single market. How far north would Nissan need to go?

Hurrache

At one point the UK signed a joint declaration with Japan that they'd lobby the EU to lift bans on food from Fukushima. Chlorinate chicken will have to take a back seat to radioactive foods.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1144152931412914177

kunst nugget

farmchoice wrote: »

im starting to think Johnson may be on the verge of orchestrating his own downfall on this one.
its now pretty clear that not only does he not have ''even a sketch of a plan of how to deliver brexit'' he also now realizes the non runner that is no deal. BUT he has backed himself into a corner. he knows and hunt knows that whoever gets it is going to have to talk the tory party down off the ledge, better to leave that to hunt who they can then sack post end of brexit and he can come charging back.
what is the point of becoming the shortest PM in history?

To come out and say we're leaving on October 31st, deal or no deal, to get a few extra votes from the Tory membership was bafflingly dense. It seems like he'll say whatever he thinks the other person wants to hear, whether he believes it or not. I don't know how he'll squirm out of this. Especially when he has the likes of Mark Francois going to the media and making things ten times worse.

Peregrinus

Scottish GDP is estimated to be about $237 billion. If it were an independent country (and if indepenence did not signficantly alter its GDP one way or another) that would put it in the same league as Portugal ($237 billion) or Romania ($239 billion).'

Going by GDP per capita, independent Scotland ($43,700, on the same assumption) would come between Belgium ($43,600) and Germany ($44,500).

kunst nugget

My particularly favourite Mark Francois moment is when he ripped up the letter from Airbus CEO Tom Enders, warning the government that they would probably pull out of the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit, during a BBC interview saying:

My father Reginald Francois was a D-Day veteran, he never submitted to bullying by any German, neither will his son. So if Mr Enders is watching, that’s what he can do with his letter.

54and56

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Johnson will force them to give concessions on the backstop at the last minute. That's the way the EU roll apparently.

The EU have taken what might appear to be a negotiating weakness i.e. full transparency and turned it into a strength by being open on what they are prepared to offer given the UK's red lines and by being inclusive with all EU26 members to build a unified position which they then publicly communicate with such consistency that it makes it very difficult for the UK to peel off member states and very difficult for the EU to backtrack on the position they have taken and support they have committed to in relation to the backstop.

If we get to 23:59 on Oct 31st and the EU blinks or backtracks on any of the fundamental positions agreed in the WA without the UK having first moved some of it's red lines the EU will never again be taken seriously in a negotiation.

90% of Irish population (including all mainstream political parties) support the ROI govt position which Simon Coveney neatly summarised in January as:-

"Peace and the Good Friday Agreement are more important than Brexit."

Basically "No Backstop = No Deal".

Brexit is a UK initiative. If they want a deal with the EU they need to sign the WA their government negotiated otherwise they should stop begging for extensions, leave on a No Deal and accept that they will default to being a 3rd country with the same customs and excise status as Cambodia or Haiti.

If Ireland has to choose between protecting long term peace Vs short term economics Ireland will always choose peace and there is no way the EU will ever abandon a fully committed member country to appease anti EU hard Brexiteers.

54and56

Hermy wrote: »

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

Here's the main difference between Scotland and Norway in relation to their ability to prosper as small independent countries - https://www.nbim.no

volchitsa

Hermy wrote: »

In terms of population Norway trails slightly behind with 5.2m people but in terms of land area and economy Norway is significantly larger.

Don't think land area matters much, plenty of city states prove that. And much of Norway is always going to be sparsely populated and even more sparsely farmed, for climatic regions.

As for economy, they are wealthy now thanks to proper investment of their oil wealth, the UK squandered Scotland's equivalent in tax breaks for the English.
But they were a stable independent country before the oil boom, and there's no reason to think they would have stopped being one if it had never happened.

The difference is they might well have felt the need to join the EU in that case. Just like Scotland.

sink

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/lumi_1984/status/1143587403770322947

"For goodness sake, Scotland by itself? How's it going to survive?"

"What does it have? Oil, and a monster in a lake?"

I can't see the Scots putting up with British politics 2019-style for much longer.

I like they way they talk about the Queen having to go overseas to visit Balmoral, I didn't realize that Scottish independence meant having to create a whole new sea, that might hurt the economic argument somewhat.

Hermy

54&56 wrote: »

Here's the main difference between Scotland and Norway in relation to their ability to prosper as small independent countries - https://www.nbim.no

I've read about that before recently - think it came up in a quiz question.
It's really something.

branie2

Boris Johnson is promising an Australian style points system for immigrants if he is elected.

ambro25

branie2 wrote: »

Boris Johnson is promising an Australian style points system for immigrants if he is elected.

Are there any major differences between this promised "Australian-style" PBS, and the existing, 11-year old, 'hostile environment'-tweaked British PBS?

lawred2

Hermy wrote: »

I've read about that before recently - think it came up in a quiz question.
It's really something.

I think we should invade personally

In all seriousness... just what stage in a nation's evolution do you have to be at to have such levels of foresight and social consciousness?

We're not there yet anyway. That's for sure.

Professor Moriarty

As of June 2019, Scotland to remain as part of the UK has a 3% lead. However, as of April 2019 and in the event of a No Deal Brexit, Scotland to leave the UK has an 14% lead.

54and56

lawred2 wrote: »

I think we should invade personally

In all seriousness... just what stage in a nation's evolution do you have to be at to have such levels of foresight and social consciousness?

We're not there yet anyway. That's for sure.

Did a family weekend city break to Oslo a few years ago and was blown away by just how civilised and forward thinking the country is.

They haven't allowed the windfall from oil taxes to turn them into flash Harry's, they've basically taken a very mature view that this is a one time injection of cash which is best used in the long term to support the country they are via better infrastructure, education, social supports and basically better quality of life without losing their existing identity. Everything works (super public transport), crime is very low and their politicians for the most part seem very accessible (they walk and cycle between Govt buildings so you can literally bump into the PM on any given day) plus they genuinely seem to view their role as being the custodians of society and public service rather than an opportunity to line their own pockets.

It's the underlined bit that really separates them from us/Scotland etc but I do think we are slowly moving in that direction.

VinLieger

branie2 wrote: »

Boris Johnson is promising an Australian style points system for immigrants if he is elected.

Which China and India will undoubtedly demand 100% exemptions from during trade negotiations

A Dub in Glasgo

54&56 wrote: »

It's the underlined bit that really separates them from us/Scotland etc but I do think we are slowly moving in that direction.

Scotland do not get a choice in the matter, Westminster has urinated all the oil revenue up trying to be a global player wall

Laois_Man

Meanwhile the Brexiteers are shouting from the rooftops about this poll

https://humanevents.com/2019/06/26/no-bregrets-brexit-more-popular-than-ever/

Hard to know what polls to believe and what not to. I wouldn't trust any of them!

trellheim

Someone like Gavin Williamson has been given their orders about how this is to play out. Boris does not have several capacities required to see the long view here, so I wonder who is leading in the smoke-filled room.

It would appear to be a strong 'nothing but the survival of the Tory Party is at stake' play .

Shelga

Say there was a time limit on the backstop of 2 years. Is the thinking then that the British would withdraw from it at that point and do whatever they want, while also being midway through a trade deal, so further along in their goals?

So ultimately we would have to erect a border anyway, if there is any divergence from current tariffs and regulations, which is what the UK wants, while paradoxically saying they don’t want a hard border.

When Jacinda Ardern initially announced that New Zealand was now going to measure wellbeing instead of GDP, I thought it sounded like a bit of a gimmick. But, the more I think about it, the more sense it makes- if you can measure accurately. (big if)

The contrast with Liz Truss, who was banging on again last night about never ending growth and expansion, and increasing incomes- it’s just not sustainable. As if the only marker for success is how much money you make and how much money your company brings in. It’s so depressing.

We need to radically re-think how we measure success for a country, with the impact on climate change being by far the number one consideration for all countries. Brexit is such a damaging distraction from what should be focused on right now.

ancapailldorcha

Don't dump names here and expect people to google them please. Post deleted.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

Meanwhile the Brexiteers are shouting from the rooftops about this poll

https://humanevents.com/2019/06/26/no-bregrets-brexit-more-popular-than-ever/

Hard to know what polls to believe and what not to. I wouldn't trust any of them!

Why are they shouting about it? If I were them I'd be hiding it away in a locked drawer. Maybe they haven't read it properly. This polling clearly states:

43% of people have Remain as their preferred option
28% of people have No Deal as their preferred option.

An Ciarraioch

Shelga wrote: »

Say there was a time limit on the backstop of 2 years. Is the thinking then that the British would withdraw from it at that point and do whatever they want, while also being midway through a trade deal, so further along in their goals?

So ultimately we would have to erect a border anyway, if there is any divergence from current tariffs and regulations, which is what the UK wants, while paradoxically saying they don’t want a hard border.

When Jacinda Ardern initially announced that New Zealand was now going to measure wellbeing instead of GDP, I thought it sounded like a bit of a gimmick. But, the more I think about it, the more sense it makes- if you can measure accurately. (big if)

The contrast with Liz Truss, who was banging on again last night about never ending growth and expansion, and increasing incomes- it’s just not sustainable. As if the only marker for success is how much money you make and how much money your company brings in. It’s so depressing.

We need to radically re-think how we measure success for a country, with the impact on climate change being by far the number one consideration for all countries. Brexit is such a damaging distraction from what should be focused on right now.

It took seven years to complete a trade deal with Japan, which would be of comparable economic size with the UK, so even in the event of a time-limited backstop, it would need to endure for a decade to cover all eventualities.

Professor Moriarty

Shelga wrote: »

Say there was a time limit on the backstop of 2 years. Is the thinking then that the British would withdraw from it at that point and do whatever they want, while also being midway through a trade deal, so further along in their goals?

So ultimately we would have to erect a border anyway, if there is any divergence from current tariffs and regulations, which is what the UK wants, while paradoxically saying they don’t want a hard border.

When Jacinda Ardern initially announced that New Zealand was now going to measure wellbeing instead of GDP, I thought it sounded like a bit of a gimmick. But, the more I think about it, the more sense it makes- if you can measure accurately. (big if)

The contrast with Liz Truss, who was banging on again last night about never ending growth and expansion, and increasing incomes- it’s just not sustainable. As if the only marker for success is how much money you make and how much money your company brings in. It’s so depressing.

We need to radically re-think how we measure success for a country, with the impact on climate change being by far the number one consideration for all countries. Brexit is such a damaging distraction from what should be focused on right now.

When Truss wasn't shouting at her, Maitlis nailed Truss with facts.

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why are they shouting about it? If I were them I'd be hiding it away in a locked drawer. Maybe they haven't read it properly. This polling clearly states:

43% of people have Remain as their preferred option
28% of people have No Deal as their preferred option.

And adding the "softer Brexit" option, 59% favour a solution that keeps the UK at least in the Single Market and Customs Union.