Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And adding the "softer Brexit" option, 59% favour a solution that keeps the UK at least in the Single Market and Customs Union.

Exactly.

J Mysterio

Priceless tweet yesterday morning from Julia Hartley-Brewer in response to Ruth Davidson. Hartley-Brewer is a real Brexit maniac and a prime example of the privileged elite who don't really give a damn about others and just want glorious Brexit at all costs.

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1143893495956037632

Her tweets have been increasingly wild and inflammatory.

BobbyBobberson

Her tweets are symptomatic of many brexiteers and where they are now. A couple of years ago no one ever dreamt of a hard Brexit, where as now No Deal is all that some will accept.

serfboard

farmchoice wrote: »

[Johnson] knows and hunt knows that whoever [wins] is going to have to talk the tory party down off the ledge

The problem with this is that the Tory party then gets hammered by Farage in the next General Election.

And if this whole Brexit process has taught us anything, it's that the survival of the party is the most important thing to Tories. Sure even the referendum itself was an attempt to fix a problem in the Tory party.

trellheim

it's that the survival of the party is the most important thing to Tories. Sure even the referendum itself was an attempt to fix a problem in the Tory party.

No, it's worse than that ( How so you may ask). The sin is hubris - they equate the good of the Tory Party with the good of the country

Strazdas

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Her tweets are symptomatic of many brexiteers and where they are now. A couple of years ago no one ever dreamt of a hard Brexit, where as now No Deal is all that some will accept.

It's fascinating to see how the narrative has shifted in the last two years. Even May's deal which has numerous red lines is now seen as a 'soft Brexit'.

Part of the reason they've gone to the extremes is that they reckon any deal is too messy and complicated so they think ripping up everything is the simplest and quickest way of getting to Brexit.

Popeleo

Laois_Man wrote: »

Meanwhile the Brexiteers are shouting from the rooftops about this poll

https://humanevents.com/2019/06/26/no-bregrets-brexit-more-popular-than-ever/

Hard to know what polls to believe and what not to. I wouldn't trust any of them!

That website should come with a health warning. So Breitbarty.
I think I need a shower after reading there!

J Mysterio

This may be slightly obscure, and don't ask me how, but I got down this rabbit hole which ended with me looking at the 'peerage of Ireland' Wikipedia page. It's a horrifying thing really, especially when considering these titles aren't really recognised here, but this for me really underlines the inequality in society - particularly in the U.K - and the awful class divide they have.

Seems a great majority of these Irish 'peers' have managed to pass down their titles for hundreds of years, along with the huge swathes of often gifted land, with large country houses and accompanying shedloads of cash. The children are sent to private schools in England before attending Oxford and Cambridge.

Looking at the current 'Earl of Limerick' as an example.. He attended Eton and Oxford and was a Director of the Deutsche Bank. Following the death of Lord Lyell in 2017, there was then a contest of these aristocrats to select a successor to take Lord Lyell's seat in the House of Lords. The 'Earl of Limerick' stated that he was "passionate about contributing lifetime experience in overseas commerce to make Brexit successful."

I'm not sure who won, but whomever it was, they will influence British law for the rest of their life and claim £300 a day for their trouble. They are completed insulated from society at large and have huge influence in the direction of the UK.

It's no wonder really that the Tories have made such a damn mess of Brexit. They are these people by and large, and the cow tow to them. Just look at Boris - accountable to no one.

Professor Moriarty

Guy Verhofstadt, the EU's Brexit coordinator, seems to be damping down expectations just a tiny little bit today:

"Johnson is a man who continues to dissemble, exaggerate, and disinform and is unable to stop spreading untruths. Chief among them is the myth that Britain can tear up the withdrawal agreement that May negotiated with the EU, withhold its financial commitments to the bloc, and simultaneously start negotiating free trade deals.

To Johnson’s followers, however, he is more prophet than politician: only he can deliver a mythical ‘true Brexit’ that will deliver the prosperity promised during the referendum campaign. As is often the case with populists, reality does not square with Johnson’s combination of false promises, pseudo-patriotism, and foreigner-bashing.

He and his fellow Brexiteers speak of a ‘global Britain’ that will trade freely with the rest of the world, even as they drag their country down a path strewn with uprooted trade ties and substantial new barriers to commerce.”

Water John

The civil servant in charge of No Deal planning in the UK, gets out before it all hits the fan.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/27/brexit-civil-servant-in-charge-of-no-deal-planning-quits

“There is actually a Mr Big of no deal in Whitehall, very clever and very well paid, who was so integral to the process we joked that if he was hit by a No 53 bus on Parliament Square, Brexit wouldn’t happen!”, former Conservative Party MP Stewart Jackson wrote in the Times in an article sources said was a reference to Shinner.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1144259367233052679

Does this still qualify as "project fear"?

...or do we call this, Project Gear?

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1144259367233052679

Does this still qualify as "project fear"?

...or do we call this, Project Gear?

There are 1900 employees at that plant. Not to mind the supply jobs that are generated outside the plant. I don't think this is project fear more the dastardly Johnny Foreigners twisting Britain's arm.

kunst nugget

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There are 1900 employees at that plant. Not to mind the supply jobs that are generated outside the plant. I don't think this is project fear more the dastardly Johnny Foreigners twisting Britain's arm.

Time for Mark Francois to wheel out his 'My father, Reginald Francois, was a D-Day veteran. He never submitted to bullying by any German, and neither will his son.' quote again.

Patser

kunst nugget wrote: »

Time for Mark Francois to wheel out his 'My father, Reginald Francois, was a D-Day veteran. He never submitted to bullying by any German, and neither will his son.' quote again.

'My father Reginald Francois, helped the French escape the clutches of the Germans, and this is how they repay us. Bloody French!!!!


Oh, my surname, completely coincidental'

Sam Russell

kunst nugget wrote: »

Time for Mark Francois to wheel out his 'My father, Reginald Francois, was a D-Day veteran. He never submitted to bullying by any German, and neither will his son.' quote again.

Except they are French.

KildareP

The EU Commission closed their Scottish offices today:

https://twitter.com/eucommscotland/status/1144197512372391936?s=21

Patser

Coincidentally here's Francois yesterday saying it would be worth destroying the British car industry, in the name of sovereignty as at least it would be 'their choice'

https://www.indy100.com/article/mark-francois-no-deal-brexit-sky-news-adam-boulton-car-industry-8977136

Frank Bullitt

Patser wrote: »

Coincidentally here's Francois yesterday saying it would be worth destroying the British car industry, in the name of sovereignty as at least it would be 'their choice'

https://www.indy100.com/article/mark-francois-no-deal-brexit-sky-news-adam-boulton-car-industry-8977136

I am more interested in what he will be saying if there is a hard Brexit and the place is in ruins. Will he start blaming the EU then?

kunst nugget

Sam Russell wrote: »

Except they are French.

I didn't realise Opel was owned by French company Groupe PSA... can't trust any of those ruddy Europeans at all.

kunst nugget

Gintonious wrote: »

I am more interested in what he will be saying if there is a hard Brexit and the place is in ruins. Will he start blaming the EU then?

Are you being rhetorical here? Because the most obvious answer would be 'well duh!'

Sam Russell

kunst nugget wrote: »

I didn't realise Opel was owned by French company Groupe PSA... can't trust any of those ruddy Europeans at all.

It used to be owned by the Americans - General Motors since forever. The German Gov were going to take it over during the crash, but the USA Gov bailed out GM and they refused to sell it to the German Gov. Merkel was furious.

Now it is PSA owned, so PSA now build Nissan, Renault and Opel vans in Luton - work that out.

seamus

Water John wrote: »

The civil servant in charge of No Deal planning in the UK, gets out before it all hits the fan.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/27/brexit-civil-servant-in-charge-of-no-deal-planning-quits

“There is actually a Mr Big of no deal in Whitehall, very clever and very well paid, who was so integral to the process we joked that if he was hit by a No 53 bus on Parliament Square, Brexit wouldn’t happen!”, former Conservative Party MP Stewart Jackson wrote in the Times in an article sources said was a reference to Shinner.

At 33, bloody hell.

Did a quick bit of research on this guy, there was quite a bit of kerfuffle when he was originally appointed as a senior advisor on £100k at 28 years old.

By all accounts he has a mixture of being very clever and hardworking, and a lot of posh connections.

But ultimately he cannot be more than 15 years out of college, no matter how good he is at anything. And is it really possible that amount of experience is sufficient to lead the most important project in modern British history?

Sounds like Shinner is clever enough to know that **** rolls downhill, but it has to land on someone at the bottom, and he was going to be that someone.

An Ciarraioch

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Guy Verhofstadt, the EU's Brexit coordinator, seems to be damping down expectations just a tiny little bit today:

"Johnson is a man who continues to dissemble, exaggerate, and disinform and is unable to stop spreading untruths. Chief among them is the myth that Britain can tear up the withdrawal agreement that May negotiated with the EU, withhold its financial commitments to the bloc, and simultaneously start negotiating free trade deals.

To Johnson’s followers, however, he is more prophet than politician: only he can deliver a mythical ‘true Brexit’ that will deliver the prosperity promised during the referendum campaign. As is often the case with populists, reality does not square with Johnson’s combination of false promises, pseudo-patriotism, and foreigner-bashing.

He and his fellow Brexiteers speak of a ‘global Britain’ that will trade freely with the rest of the world, even as they drag their country down a path strewn with uprooted trade ties and substantial new barriers to commerce.”

That said, the Mercosur deal he references is somewhat of a double-edged sword for us - reports the beef quota will be 100,000 tonnes per year.

BluePlanet

Peregrinus wrote: »

Because he may, in fact, be the first to have to put up borders.

If there is a crash-out Brexit, both sides will need to erect controls but neither side will want to be seen to be the first to erect controls. So there'll be a kind of Mexican standoff, with each waiting for the other to move, and both hoping that developments elsewhere will resolve the position before either has to move. (E.g. Ireland will hope that chaos at UK's channel ports, shortage of consumer goods, collapse in industrial output, will bring UK back to table before border issue get really pressing.)

But if the situation isn't resolved in this way fairly soon one of them will have to move first, and that will probably be Ireland, because we have an interest in maintaining the integrity of the SM and the CU both for our own advantage and in solidarity with other member states. (Solidarity is two-way, remember.) UK will already be suffering masive reputational damage and economic dislocation from crash-out Brexit; problems resulting from open Irish border will be small beer to them, so they can let them ride for longer than we can afford to.

So, forseeably, Varadkar will be moving on border controls before UK does. So, if nothing else, it's in his interests to manage Irish public expectations in this regard.

This is exactly the scenario i also envisage and similarly feel that Leo and the government may have scored an own goal on this.

The border is being weaponized.
It's all about the blame game, and this means the game is positioning oneself so that the other party gets landed with the blame.

I have a feeling that immediately after border infastructure is stood up, the EU gets the blame.
But I don't think that EU gets all the blame

We have a choice, and we'll get the blame too.
The Brits would rather we Irexit with them and by not standing up a border we would be helping toward that goal.

I think it's worth exploring what the blame may look like:
I imagine the Brexiteers will claim that it is Ireland that is unilaterally withdrawing from the GFA by standing up a border.
Of course we all know that in context this is rubbish, but this is the sort of nastiness that I am growing to expect from them.
It's possible that the Tories will use this faux position to more or less renounce the GFA.
Or at least allow them wiggle room to cherry-pick the bits they want from it - like the Northern Assembly etc and jettison the Irish Language bits etc.

I wonder, and i'm being really dark here: will they abandon the very concept of a NI refrenda to decide the consitutional status should a majority desire it? Basically scuppering any chance of a United Ireland?


What depths are the more sinister Tories willing to go?
It's not pretty rabbit hole to navigate.

Professor Moriarty

KildareP wrote: »

The EU Commission closed their Scottish offices today:

https://twitter.com/eucommscotland/status/1144197512372391936?s=21

Very poignant. Especially if you are a Scot. This is equally poignant. The whole speech is worth listening to (this video is only a segment) but the 25 seconds from 1.45 to 2.15 is particularly emotive.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

That said, the Mercosur deal he references is somewhat of a double-edged sword for us - reports the beef quota will be 100,000 tonnes per year.

Yeah but it's not agreed yet and we have a veto - though that's unlikely given our vulnerable position. Just have to trust that the consumer will continue to see Irish beef as superior and safer.

Patser

Sam Russell wrote: »

Now it is PSA owned, so PSA now build Nissan, Renault and Opel vans in Luton - work that out.

PSA are Peugeot, Citroen and now Opel (also DS an in house spin off luxury brand)

Renault and Nissan are a different partnership

funkey_monkey

BluePlanet wrote: »

I think it's worth exploring what the blame may look like:
I imagine the Brexiteers will claim that it is Ireland that is unilaterally withdrawing from the GFA by standing up a border.
Of course we all know that in context this is rubbish, but this is the sort of nastiness that I am growing to expect from them.
It's possible that the Tories will use this faux position to more or less renounce the GFA.

I'm not sure that they can renounce an internationally binding agreement without arbitration - which would ultimately tell them what they don't want to hear.

Or at least allow them wiggle room to cherry-pick the bits they want from it - like the Northern Assembly etc and jettison the Irish Language bits etc.

I don't think that would go down well with us and even less so with those who were previously wo/men of violence.

I wonder, and i'm being really dark here: will they abandon the very concept of a NI refrenda to decide the consitutional status should a majority desire it? Basically scuppering any chance of a United Ireland?.

Again this is part of the international binding agreement. If word of a plan like that gets out of Westminster, then a complete sh1tstorm would ensue both politically and militarily.

First Up

BluePlanet wrote:

The border is being weaponized. It's all about the blame game, and this means the game is positioning oneself so that the other party gets landed with the blame.

What's this obsession with "blame"?

Winning the "blame game" doesn't achieve anything; it doesn't change investment decisions, it doesn't maintain export sales and it certainly doesn't protect jobs.

The EU doesn't give a hoot about "blame" and rightly so. The focus should be - and is - on making the best of the situation.

L1011

Patser wrote: »

PSA are Peugeot, Citroen and now Opel (also DS an in house spin off luxury brand)

Renault and Nissan are a different partnership

Badge engineering. The Opel vans are sold with Renault and Nissan stickers on them

PSA and FiatChrysler swapped little and big vans between them badge engineered for years too. May still do but it was meant to end