Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet

First Up wrote: »

What's this obsession with "blame"?

Winning the "blame game" doesn't achieve anything; it doesn't change investment decisions, it doesn't maintain export sales and it certainly doesn't protect jobs.

The EU doesn't give a hoot about "blame" and rightly so. The focus should be - and is - on making the best of the situation.

That's a fair question.
I'm not sure, but i think it's part of self preservation for the Tories.
But I also think it's part of spinning a narrative where other decisions get built upon.

Sam Russell

Patser wrote: »

PSA are Peugeot, Citroen and now Opel (also DS an in house spin off luxury brand)

Renault and Nissan are a different partnership

It includes Vauxhall. The vans currently made by Opel/Vauxhall also sell as Renault and Nissan. Interesting. Renault are also French and it is there first mingle with PSA.

First Up

BluePlanet wrote:

That's a fair question. I'm not sure, but i think it's part of self preservation for the Tories. But I also think it's part of spinning a narrative where other decisions get built upon.

I understand why UK politicians indulge in it. No reason why anyone else should.

brickster69

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Yeah but it's not agreed yet and we have a veto - though that's unlikely given our vulnerable position. Just have to trust that the consumer will continue to see Irish beef as superior and safer.

It appears there may be no veto allowed by members for this deal.

https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/taoiseach-casts-doubt-on-mercosur-dail-vote/

A Shropshire Lad

Boris may actually become PM without being properly questioned about his plans for Brexit. I think that will be a real shame for the UK, not to mention Ireland.

They roll out his supporters such as Duncan-Smith or Priti Patel , badly briefed, who just trot out the same old lines. Meanwhile Boris is avoiding any real scrutiny and people seem more interested in his private life.

He needs a Paxman style grilling

lawred2

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Boris may actually become PM without being properly questioned about his plans for Brexit. I think that will be a real shame for the UK, not to mention Ireland.

They roll out his supporters such as Duncan-Smith or Priti Patel , badly briefed, who just trot out the same old lines. Meanwhile Boris is avoiding any real scrutiny and people seem more interested in his private life.

He needs a Paxman style grilling

Why do you think it matters? It's not a general election. And the cohort voting have largely proven themselves immune to all argument at this stage. It would all fall on deaf ears.

A Shropshire Lad

Boris reckons there will be enough whey for Mars Bars post Brexit... weight off my mind

Capt'n Midnight

54&56 wrote: »

Here's the main difference between Scotland and Norway in relation to their ability to prosper as small independent countries - https://www.nbim.no

At the end of the day the big difference is whether Edinburg or London make the big decisions.


Here's a thought experiment.

Let's split Scotland in two. Give one half almost all the industry and banks and the protestants and their work ethic and integrated into the UK economy and parliament but have the really big decisions controlled from London.

Let the other half have independence to make it's own decisions and not much else.


Ireland shows the two paths Scotland could go.
And things like the Naval base issue, parallel currency, remaining in the CTA have all been done before. And Scotland has things like Oil , Gas, Whisky , Salmon, and Electricity to export.

Independence from the UK is a well trodden path
unlike Brexit which only Greenland (pop 50,000 and simplified by only having a single industry) has gone down.

A Shropshire Lad

The Cons really hate Corbyn dont they. Hes portrayed as the boogeyman lurking in the undergrowth

ancapailldorcha

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The Cons really hate Corbyn dont they. Hes portrayed as the boogeyman lurking in the undergrowth

If nothing else, the pendulum effect means that either he or someone cut from the same cloth will be occupying No. 10 before too much longer. I watched some of Johnson's speech on Sky News' Youtube channel and found it to be the normal asinine fare we've been subjected to innumerable times.

Spanish Eyes

Brexit is a religion/cult now. No deviation, no one listening to other views. This is it.

Hermy

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

And Scotland has things like Oil , Gas...

In the event of Scottish independence how do they get the North Sea oil and gas?
Does London just hand it over as it's in their [Scotland's] territorial waters?
Is there a legal formality to guide the situation?
Or is it something more along the lines of a trade negotiation?

First Up

Hermy wrote:

In the event of Scottish independence how do they get the North Sea oil and gas? Does London just hand it over as it's in their [Scotland's] territorial waters? Is there a legal formality to guide the situation? Or is it something more along the lines of a trade negotiation?

They have been one country since 1603 so quite a lot more than oil to unpick

briany

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

The Cons really hate Corbyn dont they. Hes portrayed as the boogeyman lurking in the undergrowth

At the rate they're going, I could imagine they allocate time in Conservative conferences where they project Corbyn's face onto a big screen and subject it to a two minutes hate.

Hermy

First Up wrote: »

They have been one country since 1603 so quite a lot more than oil to unpick

Oh, indeed - Brexit has taught us that.

But the natural resources are of such value and the Captain's comment just got me thinking of the what if's.

Hermy

Hermy wrote: »

Oh, indeed - Brexit has taught us that.

But the natural resources are of such value and the Captain's comment just got me thinking of the what if's.

The oil in the North sea is in terminal decline, maybe a couple of decades at best and that is totally dependent on the open market price, if too low the oil will be left in the ground. It will depend on how successful the transition to renewables is over the next few decades.


The British isles (geographically speaking) has a vast untapped supply of wind & wave generating capability, so all the countries could go a lony way to self sufficiency in electricity in the future.


Regardless of the political outcomes.

CelticRambler

There's a report in the Indo (online) today citing a Bord Bia survey on the Brexit preparedness of Irish companies. Selectively quoting from the beginning and the end:

Bord Bia's report found that 93pc of companies have made preparations for Brexit compared to 74pc in 2018.

The latest Bord Bia Barometer shows a shift in focus from growth in the UK to maintaining market share, with 74pc of companies now actively seeking to expand in to new markets.

Accepting that Irish food companies are intimately integrated into the UK market, imagine that kind of a shift being replicated across 26 other EU countries, and perhaps even Commonwealth countries recognising that a certain and stable market of 500-million is a safer bet than one of 60-million that doesn't know what it wants.

One way or another, if 93% of Irish businesses are ready for any kind of Brexit, suddenly that no-deal scenario doesn't look so cliff-like for us. I'm not sure the same could be said for businesses in the UK.

Hermy

Deleted User wrote: »

The oil in the North sea is in terminal decline, maybe a couple of decades at best and that is totally dependent on the open market price, if too low the oil will be left in the ground. It will depend on how successful the transition to renewables is over the next few decades.


The British isles (geographically speaking) has a vast untapped supply of wind & wave generating capability, so all the countries could go a lony way to self sufficiency in electricity in the future.


Regardless of the political outcomes.

So maybe not the hot potato I thought it was.
Thanks for that.

Akrasia

CelticRambler wrote: »

There's a report in the Indo (online) today citing a Bord Bia survey on the Brexit preparedness of Irish companies. Selectively quoting from the beginning and the end:

Accepting that Irish food companies are intimately integrated into the UK market, imagine that kind of a shift being replicated across 26 other EU countries, and perhaps even Commonwealth countries recognising that a certain and stable market of 500-million is a safer bet than one of 60-million that doesn't know what it wants.

One way or another, if 93% of Irish businesses are ready for any kind of Brexit, suddenly that no-deal scenario doesn't look so cliff-like for us. I'm not sure the same could be said for businesses in the UK.

It's a polar opposite. Irish exporters have for so long limited themselves to a smaller market because the UK was so convenient and the supply chains were established. So the UK leaving could spark a boom in 'emerging' market exploitation (except these 'emerging markets' are the richest countries in the world)

On the other hand, the UK are shutting themselves out of the most lucrative markets in the world in favour of actual 'emerging markets' where the disposable incomes in the region are so low that they cannot afford to buy most of the things the UK have for sale.

Beechwoodspark

Wonder will the brexiters insult and abuse the Japanese govt for calling for a soft Brexit

Beechwoodspark

Typical bbc propaganda.

Saying the astra will def be built in UK then as an afterword she says quietly, if, a satisfactory deal is reached

Hermy

Hermy wrote: »

So maybe not the hot potato I thought it was.
Thanks for that.

20- 30 years ago it would have been completely different as the UK was for a period of time a nett exporter of oil, these days I doubt they even produce enough for an independent Scotland to export.

Laois_Man

The BBC are continuing their fine job of making sure those voting in the Tory Leadership ballot are making a well informed decision...

J Mysterio

That's an absolutely shocking cover page. Facepalm.

Also this on BBC editorial policy:

https://twitter.com/RCorbettMEP/status/1144369238217547776?s=20

"Over the last 10 years (in which the European Union & Brexit have been regularly debated) #BBCQT has invited UK MEPs onto its show some 50 times. Every single one has been a #Brexit supporter. Never had a Remainer. Never had a #Labour, #LibDem, Green, SNP, or PlaidCymru MEP"

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

They have been one country since 1603 so quite a lot more than oil to unpick

Nitpick: Scotland and England were united in the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707.

Peregrinus

Hermy wrote: »

In the event of Scottish independence how do they get the North Sea oil and gas?
Does London just hand it over as it's in their [Scotland's] territorial waters?
Is there a legal formality to guide the situation?
Or is it something more along the lines of a trade negotiation?

There are multilateral treaties to which the UK is a party that set out rules for determining a countries territorial waters, exclusive economic zone, and other rights in relation to adjacent seas and oceans. Unless the UK and Scotland agree something different, these rules will apply to divide the UK's existing waters, rights, etc between Scotland and the rump of the UK. The great bulk of the UK's oil reseves lie in areas which, under these rules, will be assigned to Scotland. Productive fishing grounds are more evenly divided, though I think Scotland would still get the larger share.

Enzokk

Caroline Flint seems to have a novel ideal for a second referendum, either take the deal or leave without a deal.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1144357973701144591

So basically a confirmation referendum to try and find out what the 52% that wanted to leave really voted for. This shouldn't be the job of Farage, who has never proposed a detailed plan for leaving or what deal he wants, or Gove and Johnson. This would be up the the electorate to decide on what they were supposed to want.

10000maniacs

Enzokk wrote: »

Caroline Flint seems to have a novel ideal for a second referendum, either take the deal or leave without a deal.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1144357973701144591

So basically a confirmation referendum to try and find out what the 52% that wanted to leave really voted for. This shouldn't be the job of Farage, who has never proposed a detailed plan for leaving or what deal he wants, or Gove and Johnson. This would be up the the electorate to decide on what they were supposed to want.

The problem with that is very few of the people who voted out voted for either May's deal or a hard Brexit.

Peregrinus

Enzokk wrote: »

Caroline Flint seems to have a novel ideal for a second referendum, either take the deal or leave without a deal.

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1144357973701144591

So basically a confirmation referendum to try and find out what the 52% that wanted to leave really voted for. This shouldn't be the job of Farage, who has never proposed a detailed plan for leaving or what deal he wants, or Gove and Johnson. This would be up the the electorate to decide on what they were supposed to want.

This isn't really a novel idea; it has been floating around on and off ever since it became apparent that the UK couldn't decide what kind of brexit it wanted.

It's open to an obvious objection on democratic grounds; of the three courses of action wihch are realistically deliverable - remain, the WA, no-deal - opinions polls show clearly that "Remain" is far and away the most popular, and is quite likely more popular than the other two put together. So if you exclude it, and offer the people a choice only between the other two, that's clearly a rigged poll, set up to deny the people the option they probably prefer, and force them to endorse one of two less popular options. Apart from being objectionable in principle, it's unlikely in practice to produce any kind of settled consensus. People would not regard a referendum rigged in this way as conferring any real legitimacy.

(It also wouldn't establish what kind of Brexit "the 52%" preferred since, of course, the 48% would have a vote as well.)

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

Nitpick: Scotland and England were united in the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707.

True; the 1603 Act didn't close the deal.