Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

20silkcut

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just a reminder of how long trade deals can take in the real world.

EU does a deal with South America.

Really when you look at that deal and how long it took to reach agreement and a further 8 years now to implement and you think that Britain is facing the prospect of tearing up every trade deal it is currently in at midnight on October 31st this year.
Just really makes you think no deal is an absolute fantasy. Certainly as a long term strategy it is utter la la land. No way Britain could tolerate unbalanced trade deals. It’s too diverse a country.
Trading blocs would absolutely tear Britain apart with relish if they were isolated in world trade suddenly like that on oct 31st.

trellheim

Reminder for all : the 2016 referendum made no binding commitment to implement the referendum.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Referendum_Act_2015#The_Act

Only Theresa May on triggering A50 started any clock ticking

Anytime Brexiters mention the vote, this should be thrown back in their faces.

Akrasia

trellheim wrote: »

Reminder for all : the 2016 referendum made no binding commitment to implement the referendum.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Referendum_Act_2015#The_Act

Only Theresa May on triggering A50 started any clock ticking

Anytime Brexiters mention the vote, this should be thrown back in their faces.

Also the fact that a UK Court found that the leave campaign acted so illegally that if the result was actually binding, they would have been forced to call a re-run of the vote. The only reason they didn't force a re-run was because the result wasn't actually binding.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-referendum-corruptly-won-but-result-stands/

Lackadaisical

It sounds like we've one unbelievable mess coming up in October and realistically we don't have many options.

Leaving the EU isn't a sane option, as it would cause absolutely huge economic problems here.
The Tories don't seem to comprehend that they're offering us absolutely nothing other than some kind of vague suggestion that we could become somekind of powerless, de facto dependency or some mad fantasy that we just rejoin the UK, which is utterly politically unacceptable in a way they don't seem to even begin to understand.

Reimplementing the border will be seen in the North as a breech of the GFA and things will start to go crazy.

From a NI nationalist point of view though they also need to remember the long game. The Republic's strong economic footing is absolutely essential to any future United Ireland, so doing anything rash that causes a major mess here ultimately undermines the cause of of Irish unity.

It's going to be a mess and I'm not seeing any real solution.

Professor Moriarty

Lackadaisical wrote: »

It sounds like we've one unbelievable mess coming up in October and realistically we don't have many options.

Leaving the EU isn't a sane option, as it would cause absolutely huge economic problems here.
The Tories don't seem to comprehend that they're offering us absolutely nothing other than some kind of vague suggestion that we could become somekind of powerless, de facto dependency or some mad fantasy that we just rejoin the UK, which is utterly politically unacceptable in a way they don't seem to even begin to understand.

Reimplementing the border will be seen in the North as a breech of the GFA and things will start to go crazy.

From a NI nationalist point of view though they also need to remember the long game. The Republic's strong economic footing is absolutely essential to any future United Ireland, so doing anything rash that causes a major mess here ultimately undermines the cause of of Irish unity.

It's going to be a mess and I'm not seeing any real solution.

It's time to meet fire with fire. Everytime Johnson, Hunt, Mogg & Co threaten Ireland with tearing up the GFA and a hard border, Vradakar and Coveney should threaten to veto and hinder every single subsequent trade negotiation that benefits Britain.

Seth Brundle

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's time to meet fire with fire. Everytime Johnson, Hunt, Mogg & Co threaten Ireland with tearing up the GFA and a hard border, Vradakar and Coveney should threaten to veto and hinder every single subsequent trade negotiation that benefits Britain.

If the leave with no deal then they are the ones walking away from an internationally recognised agreement. They also will come to the EU looking for a deal with little to offer in return. They will be the ones at a disadvantage and they will know it.
If we start threatening them now it will do us absolutely no good.

Professor Moriarty

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If the leave with no deal then they are the ones walking away from an internationally recognised agreement. They also will come to the EU looking for a deal with little to offer in return. They will be the ones at a disadvantage and they will know it.
If we start threatening them now it will do us absolutely no good.

Maybe, maybe not. It might concentrate Brexiteer minds if it were implicitly made clear that if they mess us around then we will mess them around. Subservient acquiescence, or the appearance of, only emboldens them. At any and all bilateral meetings between the Irish and the British, I would be very clear that our future goodwill in trade negotiations between the EU and Britain should not be taken for granted.

I see that Irish farmers are a bit pissed off with the new EU deal with several south American countries.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059112-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-what-you-need-to-know/

Earlier this week the IFA president, Joe Healy, said the deal is a sellout of EU values.

He said it is reckless of the European Commission to agree to a trade deal that would see tens of thousands of tonnes of substandard beef from Brazil and other South American countries come into the European market.

Is this any worse than a possible UK US deal after Brexit?

Seth Brundle

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I see that Irish farmers are a bit pissed off with the new EU deal with several south American countries.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059112-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-what-you-need-to-know/


Is this any worse than a possible UK US deal after Brexit?

How? It isn't allowing imports of beef or any other products that don't meet EU standards.

Capt'n Midnight

fash wrote: »

Most of this comes down to the UK's history with Ireland. Other countries would have a cleaner break (although continental Schengen states would have to put up borders and possibly drop a currency).

For the currency thing we pegged our currency to the Sterling for ages.

These countries are pegged to the Euro as are Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Bulgaria.

There's also the countries in the ERM and or signed up to join the Euro.

Joe_ Public

Deleted User wrote: »

I see that Irish farmers are a bit pissed off with the new EU deal with several south American countries.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059112-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-what-you-need-to-know/


Is this any worse than a possible UK US deal after Brexit?

Maybe this deal has some disadvantages for us, but not sure we were in much of a position to be getting precious about our interests given we will likely need a lot more EU goodwill over the coming months. Tough on Irish farmers maybe, but there's a bigger picture here perhaps.

BluePlanet

Deleted User wrote: »

I see that Irish farmers are a bit pissed off with the new EU deal with several south American countries.

Is this any worse than a possible UK US deal after Brexit?

Inaccurate bluster by a interested party that wants to restrict competition to protect their own pocket book.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Maybe this deal has some disadvantages for us, but not sure we were in much of a position to be getting precious about our interests given we will likely need a lot more EU goodwill over the coming months. Tough on Irish farmers maybe, but there's a bigger picture here perhaps.

I've heard talk Ireland should veto the deal.....that would be an insane move given the current political situation

Besides, there may be many plus points to the Mercosur deal for Irish businesses. We export a hell of a lot more products apart from beef.

20silkcut

Strazdas wrote: »

I've heard talk Ireland should veto the deal.....that would be an insane move given the current political situation

Besides, there may be many plus points to the Mercosur deal for Irish businesses. We export a hell of a lot more products apart from beef.

I think it’s more the double standards that is the issue here. Traceability, protection of the environment place huge restrictive regulations on European farmers. Now there will be beef on the shelves in Europe that does not adhere to any such restriction. Basically the EU is saying yes we are fine with importing beef that has no traceability and is produced in countries that destroy rainforests and habitats to produce it. It’s a bit rich.
Really proves that all this environmental stuff is just virtue signaling posturing and that money and trade is all that matters at the back of it all.
A prime example of real politik.

Farm to fork carbon neutral what does that mean now??

Lackadaisical

France is hugely concerned about it. So there'll still be a long way to go on that deal yet.

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-and-3-others-warn-mercosur-deal-could-destabilize-farm-sector/

54and56

Deleted User wrote: »

I see that Irish farmers are a bit pissed off with the new EU deal with several south American countries.

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0628/1059112-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-what-you-need-to-know/


Is this any worse than a possible UK US deal after Brexit?

Its a standard enough protectionist response from the industry body, they've no choice but to complain otherwise their members would wonder what they are paying the leadership for but the bottom line is trade deals are always give and take. If the amount of beef is limited in volume and must meet the same high standards as locally produced beef it won't put the local producers at an economic disadvantage. If they can't produce a KG of beef at a competitive price relative to an equally high quality produced South American KG of beef which has the additional bureaucratic cost of being exported into and shipped to the EU our local producers need to up their game.

Funny how our farmers love being able to export but don't like it when farmers in other countries want to do the same :rolleyes:

Leroy42

Or could it be that only the meat that meets the regs isxalliwed? Would be very strange that the EU just ignore their own regulations.

At the least it would probably be on the basis of improving standards over time with early access to help fund the change.

But back to Brexit, it shows that the EU is growing and targeting the very markets that brexit is based on getting to reduce the impact.

Whatever about the EU having to reduce standards, what are the UK going to do?

murphaph

Seth Brundle wrote: »

How? It isn't allowing imports of beef or any other products that don't meet EU standards.

Yep, exactly. You can already buy beef from Uruguay or Argentina in my local German supermarket. The EU stations its own inspectors in these plants to oversee the process.

Ireland exports a lot more than beef these days and there's nothing stopping Irish beef being shipped to south America as a premium product just as it is in Germany.

Lackadaisical

The key to the long term success of the Irish agriculture sector is going to be about moving up that price chain and selling a premium product. I have never understood why Irish agriculture keeps chasing low price markets - things like producing bulk, unbranded powdered milk, or live exports to Egypt !?

At times it seems to be about producing volume rather than any strategy.

There'll always be pressure from cheaper suppliers, but you don't necessarily have to chase that either. There's a huge demand for high-quality, ethically produced, traceable product right on our door step and we are only scratching the surface of it.

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

I think it’s more the double standards that is the issue here. Traceability, protection of the environment place huge restrictive regulations on European farmers. Now there will be beef on the shelves in Europe that does not adhere to any such restriction. Basically the EU is saying yes we are fine with importing beef that has no traceability and is produced in countries that destroy rainforests and habitats to produce it. It’s a bit rich.
Really proves that all this environmental stuff is just virtue signaling posturing and that money and trade is all that matters at the back of it all.
A prime example of real politik.

Farm to fork carbon neutral what does that mean now??

You can already buy south American beef in the EU. It has to meet the same standards as EU produced beef.

20silkcut

murphaph wrote: »

You can already buy south American beef in the EU. It has to meet the same standards as EU produced beef.

Do you honestly think a developing country with myriad social political and economic issues is going to be bothered with highly technical beef traceability???

I’d say they’d eat the ear tags before they stick them on cattle over there.

There are massive issues with beef traceability in Brazil .


https://amp.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/brazilian-beef-back-in-the-dock-as-meps-highlight-traceability-issues-36931430.html

I know this is off topic but in my opinion it has relevance to Brexit in light of its hasty conclusion and whitewashing of EU standards to put pressure on brexiteers. Which is of course welcome but not very edifying.

And frankly I think this will only sow seeds of dis-unity within the EU. Especially between rural and urban areas.

20silkcut

20silkcut wrote: »

Do you honestly think a developing country with myriad social political and economic issues is going to be bothered with highly technical beef traceability???

I’d say they’d eat the ear tags before they stick them on cattle over there.

There are massive issues with beef traceability in Brazil .


https://amp.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/brazilian-beef-back-in-the-dock-as-meps-highlight-traceability-issues-36931430.html

I know this is off topic but in my opinion it has relevance to Brexit in light of its hasty conclusion and whitewashing of EU standards to put pressure on brexiteers. Which is of course welcome but not very edifying.

And frankly I think this will only sow seeds of dis-unity within the EU. Especially between rural and urban areas.

This kind of makes a great target for Brexiteers, they see the Irish farmers being overruled by Germany (and others) who will benefit more from this deal than the farmers.

murphaph

20silkcut wrote: »

Do you honestly think a developing country with myriad social political and economic issues is going to be bothered with highly technical beef traceability???

I’d say they’d eat the ear tags before they stick them on cattle over there.

There are massive issues with beef traceability in Brazil .


https://amp.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/brazilian-beef-back-in-the-dock-as-meps-highlight-traceability-issues-36931430.html

I know this is off topic but in my opinion it has relevance to Brexit in light of its hasty conclusion and whitewashing of EU standards to put pressure on brexiteers. Which is of course welcome but not very edifying.

And frankly I think this will only sow seeds of dis-unity within the EU. Especially between rural and urban areas.

If Romania and Bulgaria can manage it I don't see why Brazil should not. There are EU inspectors out in these countries inspecting and testing beef as it's produced.

You can't just look at one sector in isolation either. What about the improved ability of EU consumers (due to expanding markets) to actually buy EU produced food? A rising tide lifts all boats.

murphaph

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This kind of makes a great target for Brexiteers, they see the Irish farmers being overruled by Germany (and others) who will benefit more from this deal than the farmers.

The Irish government can weigh up the FTA and veto it if it is on balance damaging to the Irish economy. The fact is that beef is a small component of that economy. It should not prevent a deal that works for the vast majority of the economy.

20silkcut

murphaph wrote: »

If Romania and Bulgaria can manage it I don't see why Brazil should not. There are EU inspectors out in these countries inspecting and testing beef as it's produced.

You can't just look at one sector in isolation either. What about the improved ability of EU consumers (due to expanding markets) to actually buy EU produced food? A rising tide lifts all boats.

If you read the article I linked you will clearly see that those EU inspectors in Brazil are clearly stating that Brazilian beef does not meet EU traceability standards. Not even close to it.

All very well saying that going forward we can leverage mercosur countries to improve their standards but it makes an absolute nonsense of the current stringent traceability regimes in EU countries. There are farmers in this country who face the full rigour of the courts of law for issues relating to cattle identification and movements it is taken deadly serious.

Maybe they could relax the regulations here. Then we could compete with Brazilian farmers.

No this deal is very cynical and utterly political driven and drives a coach and four through EU regulations and standards.

Leroy42

20silkcut wrote: »

murphaph wrote: »

You can already buy south American beef in the EU. It has to meet the same standards as EU produced beef.

Do you honestly think a developing country with myriad social political and economic issues is going to be bothered with highly technical beef traceability???

I’d say they’d eat the ear tags before they stick them on cattle over there.

There are massive issues with beef traceability in Brazil .


https://amp.independent.ie/business/farming/beef/brazilian-beef-back-in-the-dock-as-meps-highlight-traceability-issues-36931430.html

I know this is off topic but in my opinion it has relevance to Brexit in light of its hasty conclusion and whitewashing of EU standards to put pressure on brexiteers. Which is of course welcome but not very edifying.

And frankly I think this will only sow seeds of dis-unity within the EU. Especially between rural and urban areas.

So is the proposed deal based on allowing below EU standard beef to be imported?

20silkcut

murphaph wrote: »

The Irish government can weigh up the FTA and veto it if it is on balance damaging to the Irish economy. The fact is that beef is a small component of that economy. It should not prevent a deal that works for the vast majority of the economy.

Yes but the fact that the EU is ignoring its own standards here is very very damaging I can’t re-iterate that enough.
It is the cornerstone of the CAP which makes up the bulk of the EU budget and a huge amount of EU legislative energy goes into this so it’s not just an obscure issue in an obscure industry.
It is very much a core issue.

Lackadaisical

Looks to be very controversial in France

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UarexN1YKG8

"Paris (AFP) - The trade liberalization agreement between the EU and the four Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay) announced Friday night is deemed "unacceptable" by French farmers, including by the farmer and new Macronist MP Jeremy Decerle."

https://www.nouvelobs.com/monde/20190629.AFP9465/accord-ue-mercosur-inacceptable-pour-les-agriculteurs-francais-meme-macronistes.html

I could see this becoming more than a bit politically uncomfortable for Macron.

Google around for UE- Mercosur and you'll get a sense of French reaction.

I wouldn't be surprised if you see significant protests over it.

Reports that Macron is threatening to veto it too
https://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/emmanuel-macron-ne-signera-pas-le-pacte-commercial-ue-mercosur-si-le-bresil-quitte-l-accord-de-paris-6419995

I would have my doubts this will fly.

The issue with a UK-Mercosur deal is the UK will take what it's given. The EU doesn't need this deal as much as Mercosur does.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

So is the proposed deal based on allowing below EU standard beef to be imported?

It’s allowing 100,000 tonnes of beef to be imported from countries with very questionable traceability standards and highly questionable food safety standards. And extremely questionable environmental standards.

So yes it is far far below EU standards.

Capt'n Midnight

Deleted User wrote: »

This kind of makes a great target for Brexiteers, they see the Irish farmers being overruled by Germany (and others) who will benefit more from this deal than the farmers.

This means the UK can no longer use the "Germans need us to buy cars " card, because South America will take up the slack.

It's yet another trade deal the UK won't benefit from.


BTW
If you've ever read Fast Food Nation book there's a bit where the people working in abattoirs loved when the meat was for export to the EU instead of domestic consumption, because the EU had rules limiting how fast they could work. That was 20 years ago in the USA.