Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18

Inquitus wrote: »

It's not gonna make much headway here, all our stores clearly label irish beef with the bord bia stamp, no chance of me buying dodgy beef. Even McDees and BK only use Irish beef.

That's not the market this beef is really aiming for. It's after ready meals, low end restaurants and the like.

Seth Brundle

J Mysterio wrote: »

Dont recall seeing this at the time, but brilliant speech.

Recorded at the Pierhead on the 21st February 2018, Dáithí O’Ceallaigh (former Irish Ambassador in London) shares his sobering assessment of Brexit, from an Irish Perspective. This event was hosted by the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.

Great speech!
I’d love to see the Q&A session after that.

J Mysterio

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Great speech!
I’d love to see the Q&A session after that.

Same, shame it was cut.

jm08

Shelga wrote: »

Jeremy Hunt is heavily pushing his policy of reducing the corporate tax rate to 12.5% if he is elected as PM- 'just like Ireland'.

Also says that if the only way to leave the EU is with no deal 'then I will do that.'

The economy will tank in the case of a no deal exit, so he can reduce corporation tax as much as he wants- if businesses are making less money then that's significantly less tax for the exchequer anyway.

Marr asks him again about his terrifying comments at the hustings in Birmingham that he thinks destroying companies like that one in Kidderminster is worth it for ideological reasons, he says "I would do it with a heavy heart." Is he actually insane? How was this party ever considered the party of business?

I watched that. Its very misleading the way he claims that Ireland became prosperous because of the 12.5% corporate tax rate without mentioning that access to the single market was probably more important.

Leroy42

And that Ireland had little other choice but to do that (or at least to do something different from other countries) as we had little other advantages and needed it to kick start a badly underperforming economy.

UK does not suffer any of that. A strong economy, an advanced country both in terms of infrastructure and business, a centre of trade.

Water John

Not to derail but years ago I met my boss at the the time for lunch. He ordered the steak and commented afterwards how nice it was. I hadn't the heart or inclination to tell him that the hotel had been outed the week before as using Brazilian beef. Just had a wry smile to myself.
That's who will use such beef. Someone chasing the cheapest.

Nody

On a side note EU signed a FTA with Vietnam today (assuming ratification which should not be a major stumble block) removing 99% of all tariffs which is yet another FTA for UK to create afterwards. The number of countries that "they were going to write new FTAs with" that EU did not have are shrinking fast...

Laois_Man

Just watched BJ on Sophy Ridge - still won't rule out proroguing parliament, is still convinced that the EU leaders including Varadkar are not being genuine when they saw the WA will not be reopened - is still ranting about the EU's losses in car sales as the classic example of their "powerful incentive" to reopen it - and in the next breath still says the will hold back the £39 Billion until they get a deal.

:rolleyes:

Ridge isn't as bad as most, but I would like to have seen her press him further on the logic of the EU destroying its own future existence for the sake of selling a load of cars to the UK, most of which they are still going to sell anyway!

devnull

Didn't see this on TV, but Boris sat down with Sophy Ridge on Sky News today:
https://news.sky.com/story/the-full-transcript-of-sophy-ridges-interview-with-boris-johnson-11751712

Some of his answers are pretty odd and scary, clearly didn't know what the minimum wage was in the UK among other things and dressed it up as mistaking it for the London living wage, which paints him as someone who is in something of a bubble. Also seems to promise a lot that he won't be able to deliver on.

Also trying to suck up to her a lot as well, particularly at the end.

Scoondal

On topic : UK is now likely to leave EU with "No Deal" from EU. Is Ireland prepared for this likely chaos ?

Professor Moriarty

Scoondal wrote: »

On topic : UK is now likely to leave EU with "No Deal" from EU. Is Ireland prepared for this likely chaos ?

It's very possible but it's not likely.

McGiver

Nody wrote:

today (assuming ratification which should not be a major stumble block) removing 99% of all tariffs which is yet another FTA for UK to create afterwards. The number of countries that "they were going to write new FTAs with" that EU did not have are shrinking fast...

But but but those would be English deals!
Without any bloody German and French having input or god prevent the tiny nation of Estonians!

They seriously talk this line in the media now.

Not a single one of them is able to reply question on:
1. What deal they will make which the EU either doesn't have or prevent them from having?
2. Most importantly, what are they going to offer and sell in those magical deals? Turnips? Given they are mostly a service economy and in the process of detonating a nuclear bomb under their manufacturing base.

Peregrinus

20silkcut wrote: »

Yes without getting into too much detail there are massive ongoing food safety concerns with Brazilian beef and the US and China have banned its import.

A quick google will tell ya all you need to know.

And yes it does tie into brexit.
This demonstrates that the EU is fully prepared to abandon its own standards in light of the brexit situation it is a very worrying development.
It is the throw under the bus moment.
We just did not predict it would be this bus.
And it may not be the last thing thrown under a bus.

I have to say, no, I don't think so. The Mercosur trade agreement doesn't come with any exemptions from EU product standards. It only authorises the increased importation of beef which meets EU standards, and the EU continues to police standards on the ground in Brazil. There have been problems with Brazilian beef exports to other countries, but the EU is much more active in enforcement of its product standards, and has at various time imposed blanket bans on Brazilian beef, bans on beef from specified provinces of Brazil or bans on beef other than from specified Brazilian ranches. The Mercosur deal doesn't change any of this. If there is evidnece of quality problems with Brazilian beef imported into the EU, now is the time to link to it.

murphaph

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to say, no, I don't think so. The Mercosur trade agreement doesn't come with any exemptions from EU product standards. It only authorises the increased importation of beef which meets EU standards, and the EU continues to police standards on the ground in Brazil. There have been problems with Brazilian beef exports to other countries, but the EU is much more active in enforcement of its product standards, and has at various time imposed blanket bans on Brazilian beef, bans on beef from specified provinces of Brazil or bans on beef other than from specified Brazilian ranches. The Mercosur deal doesn't change any of this. If there is evidnece of quality problems with Brazilian beef imported into the EU, now is the time to link to it.

And it's not as if we haven't had periodic scares within the EU too (BSE in British beef, Dioxins in Irish pork and Dutch & German eggs, miss-labelled horse meat etc.). The thing is the EU reacts to these things and they do happen less frequently than other places around the world. I think that given how seriously the EU takes food safety, it's unfair to state that authorised imports from Mercosur countries would be dangerous to public health.

Even within the EU countries can ban imports from other countries if there is a health concern (for example British beef for many years after BSE was discovered). I have no doubts that Brazilian beef would be banned too if there were concerns, FTA or no FTA. An FTA is not a licence to send sub-standard produce to the EU.

20silkcut

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to say, no, I don't think so. The Mercosur trade agreement doesn't come with any exemptions from EU product standards. It only authorises the increased importation of beef which meets EU standards, and the EU continues to police standards on the ground in Brazil. There have been problems with Brazilian beef exports to other countries, but the EU is much more active in enforcement of its product standards, and has at various time imposed blanket bans on Brazilian beef, bans on beef from specified provinces of Brazil or bans on beef other than from specified Brazilian ranches. The Mercosur deal doesn't change any of this. If there is evidnece of quality problems with Brazilian beef imported into the EU, now is the time to link to it.

The quality of the beef is not the issue. Beef is beef. If there are issues it can be easily banned or restricted.
It’s the traceability regime that is undermined in this deal. Some Brazilian cattle are not tagged until they arrive at the factory. Or they are tagged in batches.They could come from anywhere and could be originally from areas with foot and mouth, which is rampant in South America. Boundaries between farms are non existent in some areas.
In the EU every single animal can be traced back to every farm it was on right back to the original farm the day it was born. Why have such an advanced highly technical system of tracing, which is an onerous system to maintain for everyone involved ,if there is beef being shipped halfway across the world to be sold beside our beef with no such traceability. What is the point of the traceability system?? If someone dies, yes you can trace the animal back to Brazil. But can the root cause be identified?? Yes they can ban Brazilian beef but , will they jeopardize the entire FTA over the deaths of one or two people?? Any bans will be fairly temporary I think. And while EU inspectors can force standards upwards in processing facilities etc the systemic traceability issues would take years to improve if ever.
Farmers in the EU could now have a case for abandoning traceability it would cut some serious costs and a huge amount of stress. Make Eu farmers a lot more competitive too.
Maybe we could clear forests like Brazilian farmers too.

An Claidheamh

Scoondal wrote: »

On topic : UK is now likely to leave EU with "No Deal" from EU. Is Ireland prepared for this likely chaos ?

They'll bottle it, if they wanted to leave with no deal they would have done it by now.

All talk

That said, if Varadkar is not prepared for a referendum on Irish unity, he should step down and allow someone who will.

We ought to be prepared for that as well, yet the Irish media won't talk about it

Leroy42

So the deal asks for nothing in terms of traceability?

As Peregrinus said, there are a lot of claims about what this deal is yet no one gas provided any evidence for these claims.

20silkcut

Leroy42 wrote: »

So the deal asks for nothing in terms of traceability?

As Peregrinus said, there are a lot of claims about what this deal is yet no one gas provided any evidence for these claims.

Google Brazilian beef traceability for yourself .
It’s all there.

The deal clearly states that it will allow 100,000 tonnes of this beef to be sold in the EU. That’s not a claim it’s a fact.

VinLieger

An Claidheamh wrote: »

They'll bottle it, if they wanted to leave with no deal they would have done it by now.

All talk

That said, if Varadkar is not prepared for a referendum on Irish unity, he should step down and allow someone who will.

We ought to be prepared for that as well, yet the Irish media won't talk about it

What are you talking about? Theres no point in talking about having a referendum until a border poll has been announced, doing anything prior to a border poll will just inflame tensions further and is ultimately pointless.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So the deal asks for nothing in terms of traceability?

As Peregrinus said, there are a lot of claims about what this deal is yet no one gas provided any evidence for these claims.

the beef that's already being imported is already not subject to such traceability

VinLieger

20silkcut wrote: »

Google Brazilian beef traceability for yourself .
It’s all there.

The deal clearly states that it will allow 100,000 tonnes of this beef to be sold in the EU. That’s not a claim it’s a fact.

Can you confirm there is nothing within the agreement about new traceability requirements though?

BobbyBobberson

More beef in here than between Johnson and Hunt, WAHEY!

I have to say the whole Tory leadership is completely drawn out, just get it over with ASAP so we can move on in the whole Brexit process. Hunt's shift to a hard brexit rhetoric quite interesting. Realises he wasnt getting anywhere and then goes on Marr with them comments.

Peregrinus

20silkcut wrote: »

Google Brazilian beef traceability for yourself .
It’s all there.

The deal clearly states that it will allow 100,000 tonnes of this beef to be sold in the EU. That’s not a claim it’s a fact.

Yes, but it doesn't say that it's allowed to be sold whether or not it complies with EU beef standards. Of course, it doesn't allow that.

I take the point you make about traceability. But, remember, traceability isn't about protecting the consumer; it's largely for the benefit of producers. It's about locating problems in the beef production chain so that (a) producers who aren't at fault aren't penalised, and (b) problems can be tackled and eliminated.

If, as you say, in some areas of Brazil farm boundaries are non-existent, then traceability to an individual farm would be pointless at best; misleading at worst. Would the EU ban beef from an entire country, or a province, or a particular plant, if they couldn't identify the farm at fault? Of course they would; they have done that in the past. Frequently. They don't wait for even "1 or 2 deaths" either.

And this wouldn't "jeopardise the entire FTA", since there is no provision in the FTA which allows the import of substandard beef, so such a measure would not breach the FTA. While it might obviously piss off the farmers affected by the ban, particularly those who consider that they themselves are not responsible for the problem, it would please other farmers within the Mercosur area, since (unless affected by a similar ban due to problems in the production chain of which they are part) they would remain free to sell to the EU, and the quota would be available to them.

These issues arise with or without the Mercosur trade deal. The EU is not self-sufficient in beef, and the excess of consumption over production is projected to grow. So there will be more and more imports, if not from Mercosur countries then from non-Mercosur countries. The quality standards, and the challenge of enforcing them, arise in either case. Arguably, the security of having a quota for export to the EU gives the Mercosur beef producers an incentive to invest in quality assurance systems so that they can be confident of being able to take advantage of the quota.

trellheim

Hunt's shift to a hard brexit rhetoric quite interesting. Realises he wasnt getting anywhere and then goes on Marr with them comments.

He has to be able to out-Boris with that and win over the membership. No centre ground at all , just extremism and mugging for the camera

CelticRambler

lawred2 wrote: »

the beef that's already being imported is already not subject to such traceability

The EU would beg to differ: from page 21 of this 2015 report -

The trend reversed in 2008, when the economic crisis started and when the Brazilian beef imports dropped19. Per capita consumption fell by 7% in the EU-28 and by 12% in the EU-15 in ...

19 This fall in Brazilian beef imports is due to the reinforcement of the European requirements in terms of traceability. When the EU imposed these requirements on Brazil; only 412 Brazilian cattle farms were deemed eligible to sell to the EU, compared to around 10,000 prior to these requirements being introduced.

Although this "beef scandal" is of tenuous relevance to the immediacy of a no-deal Brexit, it shows how fragile the belief in, and understanding of, the EU project is even in Ireland. This is the Irish (and French) version of the Brexiteers expecting the EU to blink first and cave in at the last minute. Our farmers are utterly convinced that the EU is going to throw them under the bus - or has already done so - completely ignoring the enormous efforts by the EU's agricultural division to protect their business and create new opportunities for their product.

In that sense, the EU still hasn't learnt enough lessons from Brexit: these new trade deals should have been accompanied - or even preceded - by more information explaining why EU rules apply to everyone, regardless of whether they live in northern Europe or South America.

BobbyBobberson

trellheim wrote: »

He has to be able to out-Boris with that and win over the membership. No centre ground at all , just extremism and mugging for the camera

Oh I agree, only way he can do so. Seems to have given up on his slightly softer approach. Really is something when a tory PM hopeful is saying that to a national broadcaster.

CelticRambler

And one more before I go:
https://www.agriland.co.uk/farming-news/brazilian-producers-race-to-ramp-up-traceability-and-sustainability-as-brexit-nears/

There is no legal requirement in Brazil to register calf births and many animals move between herds, as in farms surrounding the rainforest, where there are no firm boundaries between farms.
...
Hornemann explained that a growing number of farmers looking to supply fresh beef for export are beginning to record births.

Once again: give someone an incentive to make money from a premium market (e.g. the EU), and they'll soon get their act together.

Tell me how

It's off topic for this thread but Phelim O'Neil was on Pat Kenny show this morning for a long interview.
Seemed to give good insight in to the Mercusor deal from the beef perspective.
Might be worth listening to on podcast for anyone interested in the beef specific question.

MrMusician18

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, but it doesn't say that it's allowed to be sold whether or not it complies with EU beef standards. Of course, it doesn't allow that.

I take the point you make about traceability. But, remember, traceability isn't about protecting the consumer; it's largely for the benefit of producers. It's about locating problems in the beef production chain so that (a) producers who aren't at fault aren't penalised, and (b) problems can be tackled and eliminated.

If, as you say, in some areas of Brazil farm boundaries are non-existent, then traceability to an individual farm would be pointless at best; misleading at worst. Would the EU ban beef from an entire country, or a province, or a particular plant, if they couldn't identify the farm at fault? Of course they would; they have done that in the past. Frequently. They don't wait for even "1 or 2 deaths" either.

And this wouldn't "jeopardise the entire FTA", since there is no provision in the FTA which allows the import of substandard beef, so such a measure would not breach the FTA. While it might obviously piss off the farmers affected by the ban, particularly those who consider that they themselves are not responsible for the problem, it would please other farmers within the Mercosur area, since (unless affected by a similar ban due to problems in the production chain of which they are part) they would remain free to sell to the EU, and the quota would be available to them.

These issues arise with or without the Mercosur trade deal. The EU is not self-sufficient in beef, and the excess of consumption over production is projected to grow. So there will be more and more imports, if not from Mercosur countries then from non-Mercosur countries. The quality standards, and the challenge of enforcing them, arise in either case. Arguably, the security of having a quota for export to the EU gives the Mercosur beef producers an incentive to invest in quality assurance systems so that they can be confident of being able to take advantage of the quota.

This bit is important because it's irrelevant. The amount of European beef production in not linked to the price of beef in Europe, as there is an oversupply of beef at present. Increasing supply from overseas as a preferential rate won't do anything positive to support beef prices.


Another interesting thing to come out of this is that it shows just how tenuous support for the European project can be, even among those that would be the strongest supporters in Ireland.

trellheim

I had to laugh when I heard the Irish farmers whinging, when we have an Irishman in as Agriculture Commissioner ( and yes, I am well aware that they are notionally removed of the country t-shirt when they go into the Commission )


Not one single bit of research was done, some boy texted someone else and rte phoned up with a line to take and bingo its a headline fk me we are small minded