Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18

trellheim wrote: »

I had to laugh when I heard the Irish farmers whinging, when we have an Irishman in as Agriculture Commissioner ( and yes, I am well aware that they are notionally removed of the country t-shirt when they go into the Commission )


Not one single bit of research was done, some boy texted someone else and rte phoned up with a line to take and bingo its a headline fk me we are small minded

I don't think you'd be laughing if the price of the goods you produced or wages you took home were going to be depressed to facilitate increased trade in another sector.

VinLieger

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Another interesting thing to come out of this is that it shows just how tenuous support for the European project can be, even among those that would be the strongest supporters in Ireland.

That's a bit of a reach, you can disagree with this FTA but still support the European project as a whole, only the most short sighted, self involved, ignorant buffoons would consider this as a good reason to believe leaving the EU was a good idea.

Stop moaning ffs

Worth a read

https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1145285947560513536?s=21

ambro25

Laois_Man wrote: »

Just watched BJ on Sophy Ridge - still won't rule out proroguing parliament, is still convinced that the EU leaders including Varadkar are not being genuine when they saw the WA will not be reopened - is still ranting about the EU's losses in car sales as the classic example of their "powerful incentiv" to reopen it - and in the next breath still says the will hold back the £39 Billion until they get a deal.

:rolleyes:

Ridge isn't as bad as most, but I would like to have seen her press him further on the logic of the EU destroying its own future existence for the sake of selling a load of cars to the UK, most of which they are still going to sell anyway!

(re-)gripped as they are by the auld "they need us more than we need them" trope, I bet you're not going to see much coverage in UK media, about Brussels suspending the finmarket equivalence granted to the Swiss for Swiss shares trading on EU exchanges (30% of which in London) as of this morning.

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/AdamHawkinsGB/status/1145350216893304832

And Farage has not named a single one of them. Trawling through their Facebook comments I imagine before they can actually tell us who they are.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Please don't just paste tweets here.

BobbyBobberson

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AdamHawkinsGB/status/1145350216893304832

And Farage has not named a single one of them. Trawling through their Facebook comments I imagine before they can actually tell us who they are.

There were several black representatives there, so no one can play the racist card!
Edit: replying to the original comment about the make up of the candidates.

BobbyBobberson

Deleted User wrote: »

There were several black representatives there, so no one can play the racist card!
Edit: replying to the original comment about the make up of the candidates.

As someone commented below "It's like watching a random old white man generator with the diversity setting set to 0.01"

Well they are certainly putting people up for whenever this GE happens. If they have policies that extend beyond a Hard Brexit is another thing.

Leroy42

Deleted User wrote: »

There were several black representatives there, so no one can play the racist card!
Edit: replying to the original comment about the make up of the candidates.

Em, you do know that coloured people can be considered British as well!

It is not the British they are racist against.

Leroy42

Hunt has come out today and basically said that he will make a final call on No Deal Brexit on 30 September. If renegotians are not going as planned, or he doesn't see a prospect of a deal that he can get through HoC, then he will walk away and start full on no deal prep.

Both himself and Johnson are painting pretty tight spaces around themselves

BobbyBobberson

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1145647894772494338

Hunt turns September 30th to the day we all find out if No Deal happens.

Podge_irl

20silkcut wrote: »

Google Brazilian beef traceability for yourself .
It’s all there.

The deal clearly states that it will allow 100,000 tonnes of this beef to be sold in the EU. That’s not a claim it’s a fact.

It is not a fact, it is simply incorrect.

This has nothing to do with what is or is not "allowed" to be sold in the EU - nothing that determines the eligibility of beef for import and sale is altered in this deal. The quota merely refers to an amount of beef that will be hit with a lower tariff (not even zero tariffs) before the normal third-country tariffs take effect.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

Hunt has come out today and basically said that he will make a final call on No Deal Brexit on 30 September. If renegotians are not going as planned, or he doesn't see a prospect of a deal that he can get through HoC, then he will walk away and start full on no deal prep.

Both himself and Johnson are painting pretty tight spaces around themselves

Here is the quotes from the Guardian link posted by BobbyBobberson,

Following the vote for the new plan in the House of Commons I will then allow 3 weeks for negotiations with the EU. As prime minister I will make a judgement on 30th September as to whether there is a realistic chance of a new deal being agreed that can pass the House of Commons.

If my judgement - and the judgement of my negotiating team - is that there is a deal to be done I will seek to conclude the negotiations and pass a new meaningful vote and any necessary legislation in the House of Commons before the end of October.

If my judgement is that there is no deal to be done I will immediately cease all discussions with the European Union and focus the whole country’s attention on no deal preparations.

So he thinks his new negotiating team will go to the EU and get a new deal. The new team will consist of,

A new political negotiating team will be convened with members of the ERG, the DUP, members of the One Nation Group and Welsh and Scottish Conservatives. It will be led by the Brexit Secretary and supported at an official level by Crawford Falconer. He will be supported by top experts from around the world. They will be tasked with producing an alternative exit deal, based on the alternative arrangements proposals, that can command a majority in the House of Commons and addresses, seriously and forensically, legitimate EU and Irish concerns about the Irish border and the integrity of the single market. This plan will be published by the end of August.

They will get a new deal that has evaded the UK for the past 2 years, because of reasons. Then he will assess on the 30th September if there is a chance for this deal and he will negotiate it, have it voted on in the HoC and pass all the legislation as well for the UK to leave on the 31st October.

What Theresa May and the best civil service in the world could not do in more than 2 years, he with the help of the ERG and DUP and the Scottish Conservatives will be able to get done in less than a month. We have gone back to full delusion again and cherry picking and unicorns.

BobbyBobberson

Leroy42 wrote: »

Hunt has come out today and basically said that he will make a final call on No Deal Brexit on 30 September. If renegotians are not going as planned, or he doesn't see a prospect of a deal that he can get through HoC, then he will walk away and start full on no deal prep.

Both himself and Johnson are painting pretty tight spaces around themselves

Yup, just looking at his twitter feed and he his going full hog on No Deal, good God. Corporation Tax mentioned again.

Enzokk

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Yup, just looking at his twitter feed and he his going full hog on No Deal, good God. Corporation Tax mentioned again.

This will be his budget plans,

This will include my existing policies of cutting corporation tax cut to 12.5%, increasing the annual allowance to £5m, and taking 90% of high street businesses out of rates, which I will introduce in any circumstance.

This will include a £6bn fund for the fishing and farming sectors who export to Europe to ease transition out of the European Union whilst honouring our international obligations. It will also consider what relief other industries will require.

So he has found a magic money tree as well it seems. Money for everyone that will be affected by no-deal. This is delusion upon delusion in search for the keys to number 10. Either he is going to upset the ERG when he turns on them and he gets an extension and he is in the same position as May was, or he will go for no-deal in which case he loses a no-confidence vote in the HoC.

BobbyBobberson

Hope their money tree writes off my student loans to them.

On a serious note it will all likely just lead to a GE in the autumn. No Deal wont happen, govt will fall and we have a GE.

What happens in that case with the EU? Say an election is called mid October, do the EU say "You have three months until after this election to sort it out?" Thoughts anyone?

Leroy42

It is very likely that any GE would return quite a lot of Brexit MP's. It probably, based on the polls, lead to an extremely divided HoC. With any government made up of a number of parties.

Not sure how that is in any way beneficial to the EU in terms of Brexit.

There is a government. They need to stand up and face the realities. Changing the deck chairs on the deck won't make the issues go away.

Enzokk

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hope their money tree writes off my student loans to them.

On a serious note it will all likely just lead to a GE in the autumn. No Deal wont happen, govt will fall and we have a GE.

What happens in that case with the EU? Say an election is called mid October, do the EU say "You have three months until after this election to sort it out?" Thoughts anyone?

I would not be surprised if the EU decides not to grant an extension. You will either have Jeremy Corbyn in office who still hasn't committed to a strategy nd while he delays it means he has less chance of being PM. Or you have Hunt/Johnson back with their unrealistic demands and we are back where we started, only the UK people have given a mandate for something. Or you have PM Farage who will want to leave. So I would think just letting them drop out and facing the consequences would be one option.


As for Jeremy Hunt, here Marina Hyde takes an interesting view of his plans.

https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/1145649333372706818

So Hunt says the UK must not take no-deal off the table as it will strengthen their hand and they must prepare for it as well. But he is telling the whole world who can read twitter about it. He may not be the brightest bulb out there, you know.

Tell me how

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hope their money tree writes off my student loans to them.

On a serious note it will all likely just lead to a GE in the autumn. No Deal wont happen, govt will fall and we have a GE.

What happens in that case with the EU? Say an election is called mid October, do the EU say "You have three months until after this election to sort it out?" Thoughts anyone?

Tusk said that they would consider a further extension in the case of a GE or referendum.
Full remit will nearly have been done then, referendum, new PM, GE, consideration period, A50 2 year period, Extension 1, Extension 2, new PM, GE........

What will be interesting though is how they tell the UK they are going to interact with a new government. Unless Labour force JC to commit to a 2nd referendum, I can see him, or any Tory PM saying the current WA has to be cast aside and a new one negotiated.

Have to imagine a GE will turn in to a defacto leave vs remain with Tory voters being in the hardest spot of having to vote to support a 2nd referendum, or align themselves with Monsieur Farage.

marno21

Looks like Hunt and Johnson are having a dogfight to see who will become the last ever PM of the United Kingdom.

Meanwhile, the sound of fiddling echos around Islington as Corbyn watches on with indifference amongst dreams of nationalised railway operators.

CelticRambler

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The amount of European beef production in not linked to the price of beef in Europe, as there is an oversupply of beef at present. Increasing supply from overseas as a preferential rate won't do anything positive to support beef prices.

Yes, no, maybe. It's entirely possible that the consumption of beef in the EU will stagnate - or even fall - due to a combination of eco-activism saying it's bad for the world and quality beef producers (in the EU) pushing people to eat less but better.

This is the kind of unpredictable change that is already happening in Europe and in other markets, will almost certainly get worse, and is headache enough for businesses and governments to plan for. And it's in this shifting socio-economic landscape that Brexiteers want to build their future.

Now there's something to be said for being a small and agile business, able to respond quickly to dramatic changes and new opportunities. Now while GB is small, current evidence suggests that it is definitely not agile, and there a noted lack of specificity about what opportunities this new-and-improved, independent UK is going to target. In any event, nine out of ten such "small and agile" businesses end up in bankruptcy when the winds of change blow in another direction.

Joe_ Public

Out of interest does Hunt speculate anywhere as to who he'd negotiate with? Does Barnier get his band back together for one night only or does the EU put some sort of temporary committee in place to combat the UK's mighty no deal leverage? Sounds like a lot of hassle for them on the face of it.

Also, watching that Johnson interview with Sophie Ridge, after trying to deflect on a question about costing his fantasy plans and schemes with some waffle about a 14th century Tunisian lord, he then mentions something about £22-25bn "headroom". Now, i may be wrong here, but i took this to be actually referring to the war chest Phillip Hammond had built up in the event of a no deal exit. If thats the case as i believe, it is incredibly disingenuous of Johnson to justify his fantastical financial promises on this as this is money set aside for the emergencies that will arise in the ensuing chaos. As i said, i may be mistaken, but that is what i took from it.

ambro25

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hope their money tree writes off my student loans to them.

On a serious note it will all likely just lead to a GE in the autumn. No Deal wont happen, govt will fall and we have a GE.

What happens in that case with the EU? Say an election is called mid October, do the EU say "You have three months until after this election to sort it out?" Thoughts anyone?

If a UK GE was called mid October (to take place a few months later, I understand), then the manifestos and campaigning should provide all the indications which Brussels need, to stage a further extension with close, conditional milestones.

The EU needs to be careful, not to be seen to interfer with sovereign/domestic politics, so much to avoid giving fuel to British leavers, as to avoid giving fuel to nationalists and populists the length and breadth of the EU.

But it also needs to exhibit decisiveness, to avoid providing the US, Putin and Xiping with any realpolitik leverage. Whilst husbanding goodwill across the EU27 for internal coherence' sake (avoid a repeat PR of Greece).

Quite the tightrope, from a diplomatic PoV.

Leroy42

Leroy42 wrote: »

Em, you do know that coloured people can be considered British as well!

It is not the British they are racist against.

That's nationalism, not racism, A lot of countries have some elements of nationalism, Ireland included.

Joe_ Public

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Also, watching that Johnson interview with Sophie Ridge, after trying to deflect on a question about costing his fantasy plans and schemes with some waffle about a 14th century Tunisian lord, he then mentions something about £22-25bn "headroom". Now, i may be wrong here, but i took this to be actually referring to the war chest Phillip Hammond had built up in the event of a no deal exit. If thats the case as i believe, it is incredibly disingenuous of Johnson to justify his fantastical financial promises on this as this is money set aside for the emergencies that will arise in the ensuing chaos. As i said, i may be mistaken, but that is what i took from it.

To answer my own question, of course Johnson is being entirely disingenuous and good to see the chancellor calling him, as well as his rival, out on it. If theres a special kind of hell reserved for certain people involved in this whole process, i hope there's a very good place where true patriots like Phillip Hammond ultimately get their due reward.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-leader/uks-hammond-warns-pm-contenders-over-post-brexit-spending-promises-idUSKCN1TW2CZ

An Claidheamh

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AdamHawkinsGB/status/1145350216893304832

And Farage has not named a single one of them. Trawling through their Facebook comments I imagine before they can actually tell us who they are.

Adam Hawkins must be an example of the level of TAF intelligence in the Brexit party.

On his twitter handle, he has the Irish flag with England, Scotland and Wales.....

First Up

Why should the EU agree to another extension? Its not as if an election would be contested on a Leave/Remain platform. Everyone can see the divisions and disarray in UK politics and an election won't change that.

The UK will leave on October 31; the only question is the degree of chaos that will accompany it. The EU has a future to plan; the UK can go fish.

Peregrinus

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Hope their money tree writes off my student loans to them.

On a serious note it will all likely just lead to a GE in the autumn. No Deal wont happen, govt will fall and we have a GE.

What happens in that case with the EU? Say an election is called mid October, do the EU say "You have three months until after this election to sort it out?" Thoughts anyone?

First, the UK has to ask for an extension. No extension can or will be given unless the UK asks for one.

There's a convention that, if the general election is triggered by a Vote of No Confidence in Parliament, the government become a "caretaker government" and must avoid any dramatic changes or irreversible measures until after the election. Some people argue that this means the government would have to ask for an extension. Others say no, a no-deal Brexit happening by automatic operation of Article 50 is something Parliament already approved when it voted to trigger Article 50; a caretaker government would be under no obligation to try to stop it happening.

So there might be some row over whether the outgoing government was constitutionally required to seek an extension. Of course, even if not constitutionally required, they might choose to seek one.

If the outgoing government doesn't seek an extension, it's game over and crash-out no-deal Brexit on 31 October, half-way through the election campaign. That'll be fun.

So let's suppose they do seek an extension, which seems more likely. How does the EU react?

They've been very strongly indicating that they won't grant an extension just so the UK can waste more time. The extension has to be something that might facilitate a resolution of the UK's hopeless indecision. But a general election does look like that thing. Obviously nobody knows what the outcome of a GE will be, but that very fact means that it's hard to rule out any possibility, from a government committed to choosing a no-deal Brexit (as opposed to merely failing to stop one), to a government that holds a second referendum, to a government that accepts the negotiated deal. And because these options are possible, and because the EU would be very reluctant to seem to push out a member that didn't want to leave yet and could yet stay indefinitely, I think the EU would grant the extension. But it would be fairly short - long enough to finish the election, new government to be installed, Parliament to reconvene, vote on a course of action. No longer.

If the new government came up with a course of action that would require longer to implement (e.g. drop the red lines and renegotiate Brexit on the basis that the UK would pursue a Norway-type solution) and could get Parliament to approve that, then they could seek another extension of the required length.

Mezcita

How about this? Boris seems fully aware of the potential loss of seats to the Conservatives if an election happens without the UK having left the EU. While asking for an extension immediately puts him in the same fire fighting situation which Mrs. May boxed herself into.

Therefore the UK (reluctantly) requests an extension from the EU. But Boris gets one of his minions to have a quiet word with the likes of Italy or Greece and asks them to object to an extension in return for some type of favourable deal to that country. As all EU states need to agree to a potential extension the UK is therefore out on the 31st of October.

That way the Brexit decision is fully out of the UK's hands and parliament can no longer do anything to stop it. Boris dodges the massively anti democratic bullet of proroguing parliament. Also cuts off the electoral threat of the Brexit party so that the Conservatives still have a fighting chance once another election happens. Tea and cucumber sandwiches on the 1st of November before all hell breaks loose.

Too Game of Thrones?

First Up

Mezcita wrote:

Too Game of Thrones?

Too Fawlty Towers.