Summer 2019 - General Discussion

Graces7

lawred2 wrote: »

Smashing stuff for the next few weeks if the predictions on here come to pass

"Smashing" stuff out here in the night as my big pot of glorious nasturtiums got blown off the gatepost and is badly broken... Did not think it was going to be windy enough to do that or would have brought it in,,

Not a good start to the week...., along with hay fever.... But no midges as the wind is high....:D It can surely only get better...

west mayo offshore maelstrom

appledrop

There is s wind out of there this morning that would cut through you. Brrrrrrr feeling cold after nice weather. Hopefully sun will come out + warm it up. 14 degrees at moment.

Emme

It feels more like the 1st October than the 1st July.

June 2019 has got to be one of the worst on record, if not THE worst on record.

Thelonious Monk

Horrible morning in Dublin but this is the exact weather I think of when I think of typical July and August weather here

Graces7

estivation in progress...

Donegal Storm

Awful morning, pouring down sheets of horizontal rain

Emme

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Horrible morning in Dublin but this is the exact weather I think of when I think of typical July and August weather here

True, but May and June 2019 have been worse than usual. There wasn't even any proper exam weather.

Thelonious Monk

Emme wrote: »

True, but May and June 2019 have been worse than usual. There wasn't even any proper exam weather.

The attempt at a heatwave is probably all we'll get this year!

Gonzo

I decided to do a comparison between June 2018 and June 2019 for my local area in Dunshaughlin. Bare in mind that even during the hot spells of 2018, our area often lost out on the heat that was much more obvious further west due to onshore east winds. July and August 2018 proved generally warmer for my area than June 2018 once we lost the easterly winds. But the difference between both Junes is quite obvious and shows just how bad June was this year.

June 2019 Max’s for Dunshaughlin.
23C – reached 1 day (28th June)
20C – reached 2 days
19C – reached 2 days
18C – reached 5 days
17C – reached 6 days
16C – reached 5 days
15C – reached 3 days
14C – reached 2 days
13C – reached 0 days
12C – reached 3 days
11C – reached 1 day (12th June)
Days Above 16C = 20, Days Above 21C = 1, Days above 25C = 0

June 2018 Max’s for Dunshaughlin
27C – reached 1 day (27th June)
26C – reached 1 day (28th June)
25C – reached 1 day (25th June)
24C – reached 1 day (26th June)
23C – reached 2 days
22C – reached 2 days
21C – reached 4 days
20C – reached 4 days
19C – reached 5 days
18C – reached 6 days
17C – reached 3 days
Days Above 16C = 30, Days Above 21C = 12, Days above 25C = 3

Gonzo

Next week is beginning to look more like a cool spell will develop for a few days, with a cold northerly wind taking effect as an area of low pressure moves from Scandinavia over towards the Uk and this may effect Ireland too.

Temperatures lowering from next weekend after a relatively warm week this week. The UK looks more effected by the chill than Ireland, with Scotland and eastern UK looking very chilly by this time next week. Temperatures in Ireland may get to mid teens, but some chilly nights. Western Ireland will be the best place to be with milder and more settled conditions.

Saturday still looks relatively warm and settled over Ireland, but the cool air is already digging into the UK and heading our way.



Still mild across western Ireland on Tuesday 9th of July, but the cool air arriving in eastern Ireland.



Western Ireland may escape with milder and more settled conditions as the high pressure will always be closer to our west with low pressure to our east keeping the eastern half of the country cooler. The high pressure may try to move eastwards from next Wednesday bringing back milder conditions.

Temperatures generally struggling for first half of next week.



After mid week next week, it may become milder again but that's too far ahead and not certain yet.

Hooter23

Nice irish summer weather...much better than being roasted like in other countries;)

Gonzo

Hooter23 wrote: »

Nice irish summer weather...much better than being roasted like in other countries;)

It was lovely here this morning with some warmish sunshine, but it's gone all cloudy now. Still feeling quite mild.

lawred2

so Gonzo - Saturday 13th - what's your gut feeling for North Dublin?

Have a BBQ planned for the young lad's birthday

Gonzo

lawred2 wrote: »

so Gonzo - Saturday 13th - what's your gut feeling for North Dublin?

Have a BBQ planned for the young lad's birthday

bit early to say yet, but Saturday doesn't look that warm in Dublin with cooler air moving in. Temperatures could be between mid teens to high teens but it should be fairly dry. If it's sunny, then it should feel quite pleasant.

Graces7

Hooter23 wrote: »

Nice irish summer weather...much better than being roasted like in other countries;)

or buried in hail..

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0701/1059398-mexico-hail/

sryanbruen

June 2019 provisionally had an IMT of 12.9c making it the coldest June since 2011 (12.2c) and the third coldest of the 21st century so far - the other being June 2002 (12.8c).

Data from Met Éireann.

gozunda

Graces7 wrote: »

or buried in hail..

https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0701/1059398-mexico-hail/

Hail all Irish weather! :pac:

Today looks good to get some hay cut hopefully...

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

I decided to do a comparison between June 2018 and June 2019 for my local area in Dunshaughlin. Bare in mind that even during the hot spells of 2018, our area often lost out on the heat that was much more obvious further west due to onshore east winds. July and August 2018 proved generally warmer for my area than June 2018 once we lost the easterly winds. But the difference between both Junes is quite obvious and shows just how bad June was this year.

June 2019 Max’s for Dunshaughlin.
23C – reached 1 day (28th June)
20C – reached 2 days
19C – reached 2 days
18C – reached 5 days
17C – reached 6 days
16C – reached 5 days
15C – reached 3 days
14C – reached 2 days
13C – reached 0 days
12C – reached 3 days
11C – reached 1 day (12th June)
Days Above 16C = 20, Days Above 21C = 1, Days above 25C = 0

June 2018 Max’s for Dunshaughlin
27C – reached 1 day (27th June)
26C – reached 1 day (28th June)
25C – reached 1 day (25th June)
24C – reached 1 day (26th June)
23C – reached 2 days
22C – reached 2 days
21C – reached 4 days
20C – reached 4 days
19C – reached 5 days
18C – reached 6 days
17C – reached 3 days
Days Above 16C = 30, Days Above 21C = 12, Days above 25C = 3

And yet according to ME, Dunsany only finished 0.2 degrees below its long-term average for June. One of the warmest places in Ireland when compared to its LTA.

Expecting days and days above 20c is unrealistic for anywhere in Ireland, even in June.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

June 2019 provisionally had an IMT of 12.9c making it the coldest June since 2011 (12.2c) and the third coldest of the 21st century so far - the other being June 2002 (12.8c).

Data from Met reann.

If anything I thought this June felt colder than June 2011, maybe because I'm older but I definitely felt the cold more than ever this June. In 2011 we lit the fire a few times but not continuously for the first 3 weeks. June 2011 probably was wetter tho.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

If anything I thought this June felt colder than June 2011, maybe because I'm older but I definitely felt the cold more than ever this June. In 2011 we lit the fire a few times but not continuously for the first 3 weeks. June 2011 probably was wetter tho.

I felt the exact same Gonzo. June 2011 at least had some decent warmth for us in the east. Got to go to Malahide Beach on the 26th in the low 20s. Didn't get to enjoy the 25c on 3rd June 2011 thanks to school but it was one of the best warm and sunny days I can remember with not a single cloud.

June 2011 was much sunnier than 2019 mind you and actually, it was quite a nice June in terms of sunshine amounts.

Only part of June 2011 that felt that cool to me was the second week with plentiful showers.

JCX BXC

lawred2 wrote: »

so Gonzo - Saturday 13th - what's your gut feeling for North Dublin?

Have a BBQ planned for the young lad's birthday

The 13th!

You've been here long enough to know you have at least another week (minimum) before you get anything remotely close to an accurate forecast.

lawred2

JCX BXC wrote: »

The 13th!

You've been here long enough to know you have at least another week (minimum) before you get anything remotely close to an accurate forecast.

sure I know that - that's why I asked for a gut feeling!

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I felt the exact same Gonzo. June 2011 at least had some decent warmth for us in the east. Got to go to Malahide Beach on the 26th in the low 20s. Didn't get to enjoy the 25c on 3rd June 2011 thanks to school but it was one of the best warm and sunny days I can remember with not a single cloud.

June 2011 was much sunnier than 2019 mind you and actually, it was quite a nice June in terms of sunshine amounts.

Only part of June 2011 that felt that cool to me was the second week with plentiful showers.

Another reason why June 2019 felt so cold for me was what came before it, the cold Spring really didn't help things, our house just bottled up the cold that started in March and never recovered till last week.

Oneiric 3

My June 2019 stats for Co. Galway:



And for June 2018 just to compare:




Syran above mentions that Dunsany came in the warmest (as compared to average) station this June, yet I find it a little odd that Dunsany only has LTA June temp of 13.0c? This seems a little cool compared to most other stations around the country. One would think that on average, this would be one of the warmest stations in the summer, and coldest in the winter, given its proximity in relation to the prevailing SW winds.

Graces7

As innocent a morning as ever dawned. Grey and quiet with great swathes of cloud and barely a breeze to stir the air. My cats and I were out very early


west mayo offshore peace

sryanbruen

With no break in the negative NAO, this -NAO event is now the joint longest on record back to 1950 with Summer 2011. GFS ensembles show the NAO continuing negative throughout the forecast period so we should beat 2011’s -NAO event by a considerable margin.

https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1145949327103336450?s=21

Emme

What is negative North Atlantic Oscillation and how does it affect weather? Just for those of us who don't have much knowledge of meteorology.

sryanbruen

Emme wrote: »

What is negative North Atlantic Oscillation and how does it affect weather? Just for those of us who don't have much knowledge of meteorology.

Blocking areas of high pressure either as a mid-Atlantic ridge (high pressure covering the North Atlantic Ocean blocking weather systems from pushing in from the west) or high pressure centred around Greenland/Iceland and equally low pressure undercutting it over the Azores or western Europe. To put this into perspective, here's a 500mb height chart with a negative NAO from Summer 2011. There is vast amounts of blocking over Greenland and underneath it, we have a trough of low pressure covering Ireland with a northeasterly flow digging cool air from the Arctic into that trough.



Negative NAO in summer usually translates to cool and wet conditions. Summers 2007 to 2012, 2015, 2016 and now 2019 so far have all had a -NAO (2013 and 2018 had a +NAO. In the case of Summer 2018, it was record breakingly positive not only for length but also amplification). And just for learning sakes, negative NAO in winter usually translates to either cold and dry or cold and snowy. Each -NAO event is different and depends on the exact positioning of the blocking. For example, a western based -NAO where the blocking over Greenland is centred over towards Canada will result in the cold conditions there whilst we have milder conditions.

Emme

sryanbruen wrote: »

Negative NAO in summer usually translates to cool and wet conditions. Summers 2007 to 2012, 2015, 2016 and now 2019 so far have all had a -NAO (2013 and 2018 had a +NAO. In the case of Summer 2018, it was record breakingly positive not only for length but also amplification). And just for learning sakes, negative NAO in winter usually translates to either cold and dry or cold and snowy. Each -NAO event is different and depends on the exact positioning of the blocking. For example, a western based -NAO where the blocking over Greenland is centred over towards Canada will result in the cold conditions there whilst we have milder conditions.

Thanks. It seems like most years have a negative NAO for summer. "Summers" 2007 to 2012 were horrific but the past May and June has put them in the shade.

Would unseasonably warm weather in Spring indicate a negative NAO? This February was unseasonably warm and there was a warm dry spell in late April which has been unmatched since in many parts of Ireland. I remember April 2007 also had an unseasonably warm spell and it was a negative NAO year.

You didn't mention summers 2014 and 2017. Was there any NAO factor there?

Oscar Bravo

Cloudy and calm in Castlebar. not a bad day at all.