Summer 2019 - General Discussion

Lucreto

This year is looking like is it resembling 2011.

We had a rubbish Winter followed by a rubbish Summer and if the trend continues this Winter will also be rubbish.

Hooter23

Cloudy in Galway...usual summer weather...usually when we get promised a week of fine weather we only end up with 2 maybe 3 sunny days...last summer was probably a once in 1,000 year event for ireland:pac:

Seanachai

Hate this type of muggy heat, was in a small comms room with a broken cooler unit yesterday and I thought I was going to melt. People coming back from holidays and talking about clear blue skies.

Graces7

Just been outside briefly. Very briefly. The air is thick with pollen and all kinds of nasty things. Eyes and nose streaming... Watered what I could swiftly... So glad I went that long walk before 5 am as it was viable then.. But everything is growing as if in a greenhouse so all is well! Bees in ecstasy...

west mayo offshore

snowstorm445

Lucreto wrote: »

This year is looking like is it resembling 2011.

We had a rubbish Winter followed by a rubbish Summer and if the trend continues this Winter will also be rubbish.

2011 was a horrible year tbh. Returned from abroad that year and I remember being quite excited after coming home during the previous winters, instead it ended up being cool and miserable during the summer and then promptly switched to mild muck around September. Christmas was about 20 degrees warmer than the one in 2010. Brief cold snap in February and that was it (while England and the rest of Europe got a week of snowy easterlies).

Thought it was an outlier of a year but it has pretty much set the stage for every winter since then over the past decade (some were even worse), and quite a few of the summers as well (excluding 2013 and 2018 I think).

Artane2002

Lucreto wrote: »

This year is looking like is it resembling 2011.

We had a rubbish Winter followed by a rubbish Summer and if the trend continues this Winter will also be rubbish.

No, the winter preceding Summer 2011 wasn't rubbish, December 2010 was in that winter ! Unless you're not a fan of snow/cold?

lawred2

Very warm under direct sun in tayto park

Ultimate Seduction

Anyone from Limerick think this summer hasn't been bad atall so far. ?

About 10 bad days start of June other than that it's been very pleasant? I can't understand all the negative posts here everyday while I'm out sunbathing.

Gonzo

a nice day here in Meath, i'll be in Spain from tomorrow morning for a few days of hopefully very warm sunshine. Once we're done with this fairly settled and warmish week, the outlook doesn't look great for mid July, hopefully the models with show an improvement when I come back.

The Specialist

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Anyone from Limerick think this summer hasn't been bad atall so far. ?

About 10 bad days start of June other than that it's been very pleasant? I can't understand all the negative posts here everyday while I'm out sunbathing.

Na it’s been nothing but a massive disappointment so far, a one day freak heatwave and just grey middling ****e apart from that. We were spoiled last year.

Gonzo

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Anyone from Limerick think this summer hasn't been bad atall so far. ?

About 10 bad days start of June other than that it's been very pleasant? I can't understand all the negative posts here everyday while I'm out sunbathing.

Summer has been mostly awful so far. First 3 weeks of June were low to mid teens, many days hovering around 11 or 12C and lots of rain. Last week was very disappointing considering the potential, and remained mostly cool or average in the east with only 2 warm days which ended up partly cloudy. This week is about the best week so far and after next weekend things may turn poor again and plenty of cool.

sryanbruen

Emme wrote: »

Thanks. It seems like most years have a negative NAO for summer. "Summers" 2007 to 2012 were horrific but the past May and June has put them in the shade.

Would unseasonably warm weather in Spring indicate a negative NAO? This February was unseasonably warm and there was a warm dry spell in late April which has been unmatched since in many parts of Ireland. I remember April 2007 also had an unseasonably warm spell and it was a negative NAO year.

You didn't mention summers 2014 and 2017. Was there any NAO factor there?

-NAO summers have been more frequent in the past decade than any of the previous few since the 70s. There usually isn't this high frequency of -NAO summers. The reason for this is a mystery but theories out there point towards either low solar activity being the cause and the blocking just (unfortunately) ending up in Greenland's position for a lot of the years OR arctic amplification with the warmer temperatures that have become evident in the past decade up in the Arctic Circle. However, the latter is more of a chicken and egg scenario. Is it the warm temperatures (from anthropogenic causes) that cause or favour Greenland blocking OR is it the blocking that causes the warm temperatures? Naturally, -NAO is more likely to occur in summer anyway (despite this unusual frequency of such events in the past decade or so) due to a weak jet stream (as the temperature contrast in the North Atlantic isn't as stark in summer as it is in winter). Due to the weak jet stream, you tend to see more blocked patterns in summer too and less changeability.

Seasons don't have much bearing on each other, contrary to the popular belief that they do like the good April, poor summer I see thrown around a lot (though there is a saying about early winter in November: "ice in November to bear a duck, the rest of the winter will be slush and muck"). It's merely coincidence than anything concrete. Aprils 1955, 1995 and 1997 were all exceptionally dry and followed by warm summers (1955 and 1995 being classic drought summers). Aprils 1959, 2003 and 2014 were all warm/very warm and followed by decent summers (1959 being a classic extended summer and record sunny for parts of Ireland that hasn't been beaten up to the current day). Yes, there seems to be a recent coincidence that a good April is followed by a poor summer like 2011, 2007 and 1987. Unseasonable warmth in February/March seems to have a better resemblance of being followed by a poor summer historically than a good April.

The +NAO that we had from April 2018 to March 2019 was unusually long with record amplification, particularly in Summer 2018 as I mentioned. The only times we did have a -NAO was late October and mid-November 2018. This has meant persistent low pressure systems brought to Greenland/Iceland away from Ireland for much of the period (of course, there are exceptions like November and early December). This highly amplified +NAO was perhaps driven by the North Atlantic SST profile which was very unusual last year. Conversely, since April, we've had a record long -NAO with no +NAO days. We now have a tripole in the North Atlantic which favours -NAO. I explained this in my Summer 2019 forecast which I'll quote below. I wanted to use Summer 2019 as a test for the North Atlantic SSTs and so far despite what I said in parts... it's been correlating very well with the evident tripole.

Summer 2014 had -NAO too I forgot to mention (July 2014 was relatively +NAO). 2017 was neutral with a +NAO June and first half to July followed by a -NAO second half to July and August. -NAO in June 2014 was with high pressure mainly over Ireland so was on the warm and dry side (like June 2010) but -NAO in August 2014 meant a very cool and wet month.

sryanbruen wrote: »

There is almost a tripole developed through May in the North Atlantic which is an important indicator for Winter, not so much for Summer. But I wonder if this could have an impact on the Summer as it favours -NAO which in Summer usually results in cool and wet conditions (not always as positioning of blocking differs every time). The infamous Summers from 2007 to 2012 all had -NAO, although only one year had a visible tripole in the North Atlantic during May - 2010. In Spring 2018, a horseshoe shape of cold SST anomalies had developed in the North Atlantic Ocean which was theorised to increase the chance of a strong Azores High through Summer 2018 and thus increase the risk of a hot season. This was indeed the case and there was record breaking +NAO, unprecedented even in recorded history. However, after researching for Summer 2019 and using the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic through May 2019, I'm not so sure on this theory as Mays 1992 and 1993 had a very similar profile (as did May 1976 which I used as a primary baseline for Summer 2018) to May 2018. I could not find a great match to May 2019 in the archive in terms of North Atlantic SSTs but closest matches I could get were May 1954, May 1980, May 1995, May 1997, May 2002, May 2003 and May 2004. Quite a mix of summers here! Summer 1954, 1980 and 2002 were all very dull and the latter was relatively warm (due to August, whilst June and July were quite cool) and wet. Summer 1997 had a poor June, a mild/warm and mostly dry July, a hot and exceptionally wet August in the south. Summer 2003 had a hot August - June and July were also warm but thundery. Summer 2004 had a warm June, cool and unsettled July and a very warm but wet August. I don't think I need to say Summer 1995 which was a drought summer. Notice that 5 of the 7 years here had warm or hot Augusts whilst two (1995 and 2003) were very dry and two (1997 and 2004) were very wet, the other (2002) was quite dry but not exceptionally so. In contrast, Summers 1954 and 1980 were among the poorest of the 20th century.

sryanbruen

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Anyone from Limerick think this summer hasn't been bad atall so far. ?

About 10 bad days start of June other than that it's been very pleasant? I can't understand all the negative posts here everyday while I'm out sunbathing.

Certainly wouldn't like to be sunbathing under persistent cloud, 17c and a nagging northeasterly wind.

Hooter23

Cloud starting to break up now as usual when the day is over :rolleyes:

Hal1

What do we want? https://imgur.com/gallery/frW3siR

nacho libre

I think what's happening is the same reason why we struggle to get potent northerly anymore. Could it be we will tend to see more summers like 2012 in the years ahead?

Ultimate Seduction

Gonzo wrote: »

Summer has been mostly awful so far. First 3 weeks of June were low to mid teens, many days hovering around 11 or 12C and lots of rain. Last week was very disappointing considering the potential, and remained mostly cool or average in the east with only 2 warm days which ended up partly cloudy. This week is about the best week so far and after next weekend things may turn poor again and plenty of cool.

Limerick isn't in the East

Ultimate Seduction

sryanbruen wrote: »

Certainly wouldn't like to be sunbathing under persistent cloud, 17c and a nagging northeasterly wind.

Sunbathing an exaggeration, but it's been pleasant enough to sit out in all day most days. Think people are spoiled by last year and early summer 2017. Expectations too high.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

I think what's happening is the same reason why we struggle to get potent northerly anymore. Could it be we will tend to see more summers like 2012 in the years ahead?

Knew you'd appear here when winter was mentioned! :P

Would need a serious refreeze in the arctic to get the kind of northerlies we used to have. Remember the April 1917 northerly I mentioned? That was so cold because its source around Svalbard observed nearly -50c at the end of March that year. These days, rarely get below -35c I think.

Yeah, a warm arctic is not good for the Irish summer if the theory on the -NAO is to be believed.

giveitholly

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Anyone from Limerick think this summer hasn't been bad atall so far. ?

About 10 bad days start of June other than that it's been very pleasant? I can't understand all the negative posts here everyday while I'm out sunbathing.

Yeah I think it hasn't been too bad,OK it has been a bit cool at times but I definitely remember a lot worse

klaaaz

Today was lovely mild and muggy despite hardly any sun, reached 20C. Unlike yesterday and Sunday's misery with those March type winds. Still no proper sun in 3 days in the East(bar early morning). Have noticed Met.ie forecasted "short sunny spells" today and "long sunny spells" tomorrow Wednesday, they didn't forecast some of that cloud during the mini heatwave last week either, can't trust them anymore!

Mars Bar

My first day back in Ireland from the Middle East. Tis a biteen chilly (I'm fooking frozen lads)

amadangomor

Hooter23 wrote: »

Cloud starting to break up now as usual when the day is over :rolleyes:

Notice this happens quite a bit. Anyone know if it is a pattern with some reason for it or just a coincidence?

igCorcaigh

22C for Thursday?

sryanbruen

giveitholly wrote: »

Yeah I think it hasn't been too bad,OK it has been a bit cool at times but I definitely remember a lot worse

It's not the cool temperatures that get me down, it's the lack of sunshine. May was one of the dullest on record in Dublin (contrast to much of the country having a sunny May) and June wasn't fantastic either (some days like Thursday 27th saved it from being exceptionally dull). Most months have at least one redeeming feature about them for me. May and especially June did not. The lack of sunshine combined with cool temperatures just makes it worse. I don't mind cool temperatures too much as long as it's sunny (yes I know I'm in the wrong country if it's sunshine I'm looking for).

acequion

Am heading away again on Friday, to Spain and then after that to Sicily. Summer and heat are things that are necessary in my life. In fact I'd also love to experience proper winter but neither time nor finances allow me the same leeway to travel then.

I really can't comment much on summer 2019 in Ireland apart from the past two weeks here in Kerry which haven't been bad at all. Last week we had temps in the twenties, this week the high teens and it's been calm all the way which is great for my patio flowers. Here's hoping this gentle weather continues!

Graces7

A lovely morning. Clear skies and utter calm. The tide is full and rattling the rocks gently, and the ocean a pale aqua turquoise with rosy patches where the clouds are tinted with the incipient sun.

Lovely...

west mayo

offshore

sad to see the epidemic of SAD ..weather is just ... weather. Living in it and around it contentedly is life

eon1208

Poetry

Artane2002

Glorious in Dublin 5. Looks like I'm going to miss out on a beautiful day since I'm leaving in a few hours!

Graces7

Lovely indeed; pollen count is also "wonderful" so will be trying a simple surgical mask so I can at least sit out a while..