007 Mafia: GoldenWolf - GAME THREAD

Barney92

Drumpot wrote: »

The game is over tonight if we lynch a Villager. What good is a VIG if the game is over?

It’s a risk v reward equation. We risk losing the game by lynching a villager. We have a slightly better chance if we have one less villager in the list of uncleared people to lynch tonight.

As I said, if dandy doesn’t work some Magic he’s a shoe in so VIG doesn’t need to come out. I suspect there will be chaos after 7 and that wolves may even consider a counter VIG claim.

If VIG came out now we could park Whippy and the Vig, let them form our village core and we could at least start looking into the remaining 7(7) people (villagers don’t need to investigate themselves).

Whatever happens from here the odds are against us so I’m not sure why any play, including VIG coming out, should not be entertained.

Whilst I'm not sure if it is coming from a good place, I actually agree with drumpot here. It would be great if we got a wolf this evening, the vig wasn't munched and we got another wolf in tomorrow's lynch and then the vig got a shot off, it seems quite unlikely. The vig coming out removes a potential lynch candidate and still makes the wolves think about who to munch next time. Vig could hurt them but once the vig is gone the motion detector is essentially a seer. If they detect movement once the vig is gone, and it wasn't the munched party then they've found the wolf.

Clarabel

Drumpot wrote: »

I didn’t say the VIG was dead. Who are you talking about “a wolf wouldn’t want peolel to be looked at ?” Please explain. It’s ironic you accuse me of not reading the thread as you don’t seem to understand my posts!

Also what has being drunk got to do with anything? I know one wolf who pretended to be drunk and they won the game. Your explanation of your drunk team team post is so dodgy it’s not funny.

How do i or anybody here know you are drunk? You talk as if we should just take your word for it and then question others as though you have some moral authority from a cleared village vantage point.

- 2 morning kills yesterday and today
- one was presumed JOAT (no confirmation)
- one was presumed Vig (no confirmation)

Oooh .... they the JOAT and Vig killed rather than are dead.

Drum, I think my story is fairly consistent, it was my birthday on Wednesday, posting dropped. I was prepping all day yesterday, I had party 1 last night, what sober person is awake at 2:30.

Again what did I post that was so Dodge? I suggested we relook at everyone. Why is this a bad idea?

Sorry for having confidence when I post (again that's my sarcastic voice)

Drum why haven't you gone back to see who started the wagon on you?

I'll also address me being involved in Dandy and Kitten pocket post. I am the one that pointed it out. They've been on my FFA from start and voting with them felt wrong. I pointed it out, why would a wolf do that?


I am not going to be around today and I plan on drinking all day, I'll send you a picture Drum . So I've tried to do some strategic voting.
I've left kitten I'm going to trust her for now
I think there's enough people on Dandy to get him lynched (which I'd be delighted with)
So if a Drum wagon does start my vote will support there. Sorry if it lands up being outlier (but in that case you can count me for Dandy)


You've got me for about 15 mins if you think my voting strategy is wrong.

Whiplashy

I’m all caught up now.

Dandy for you to post what you did about Cheezy and then pull that crap with just getting your posts in and f*****g off again without any useful input was probably the wolfiest play I’ve ever seen. I really hope you’re a wolf actually because that was terrible play from a villager especially given our current situation.

Whiplashy

Drumpot wrote: »

Why?

If we munch a villager what good is a VIG to the village?

I don’t some of you are actually thinking this through.

Well firstly us villagers aren’t going to be munching anyone........

If we lynch a wolf tonight we have an extra kill tomorrow from the vig. If they out themselves they’re definitely dead. We need that extra kill if we can get it.

Choc Chip

Drumpot wrote: »

Are you saying you think this information makes BH less suspicious and Dandy more dodgy?

Is that what we take from this?

I just put it up as I'd taken down voting times in a table so had the info to hand - I deliberately said that I have no idea about waganomics and I don't know how to interprete votes. I think it was clarabel who asked necro for a lesson in it in the deadroom - I'd like one too. I've got the information but without knowing what to do with it, it's not much use.

No wolfy ploy in the last vote. I was on cheezy all day, but I made it clear that I was trying to get him to interact. I got cold feet near lynch and moved to kitten, but when she said that she could help the village, i moved back to cheezy. They were both on my ffa, which I need to go back and read because I feel like it's just us going back and forward and i'm not looking at anyone else.

I'm going out right now but I'll be back later. I do feel like I might be tunnelling on you drumpot and i've not even looked at some of the others. I'm not clearing you, but i'm going to look at some of the others when i get back and try and widen my net a bit.

Clarabel

Drumpot wrote: »

Well look at it this way. As of now Dandy hasn’t put in any defence of a very suspect post that I highlighted. If I am a wolf , why would I bother doing anything else? Village kills a villager tonight and wolves win?! What benefit is it for any wolf to do anything at this stage? There is no need to push things, that’s why we should maybe look at some lower posters.

Actually The more I think about it we may actually have to have our Vig come out. Tonight is all or nothing, if we kill a Villager the game is over so it’s no benefit to the village keeping the VIG hidden. Having the VIG our condemns then to death in morning but means we have one less villager to look through.

If Dandy doesn’t make a reasonable defence then he’s dead the rights and the VIG doesn’t need to come out. If things start getting messy (which they seem to around lynch time) we may need to get our VIG to come out. Don’t care if that’s a wolfy suggestion, I would appreciate if people would actually discuss the merits or pros/cons of it rather then just accuse it of being a dodgy suggestion.

By the way, does our 50 post count start yesterday morning?

I have two theories:
1. Kitten is the Vig and wolves know this through seer, Dandy is the spokes person for this - Wolves wanted VIG alive cause they thought a villager would be shot. Dandy has not defended kitten since, she's useless now cause has not shot tonight and wolves might win
2 Kitten and Dandy are both wolves and Kitten is pretending to be the VIG. In which case VIG is hidden right now. This explains whyKitten wasn;t munched.


Drum, post above is making me happier about you. I'm happy to discuss merits of VIG coming out. I'm happy either way, if it makes our pool smaller to catch a wolf

Choc Chip

Barney92 wrote: »

Whilst I'm not sure if it is coming from a good place, I actually agree with drumpot here. It would be great if we got a wolf this evening, the vig wasn't munched and we got another wolf in tomorrow's lynch and then the vig got a shot off, it seems quite unlikely. The vig coming out removes a potential lynch candidate and still makes the wolves think about who to munch next time. Vig could hurt them but once the vig is gone the motion detector is essentially a seer. If they detect movement once the vig is gone, and it wasn't the munched party then they've found the wolf.

Really have to go, but once vig comes out, motion detector is essentially a seer anyway. If they know who the vig is and who the vig has shot, any other motion is wolf muncher or munchee

Drumpot

Whiplashy wrote: »

Well firstly us villagers aren’t going to be munching anyone........

If we lynch a wolf tonight we have an extra kill tomorrow from the vig. If they out themselves they’re definitely dead. We need that extra kill if we can get it.

So we lose tonight if we lynch a villager? The choice is

- VIG comes out , works with you to help village find a wolf, one less person needs to be investigated so smaller pool of players to look at - 4 wolves in a pool
Of 7 (for villagers doing their homework)
- VIG doesn’t come out, you are our only confirmed goody who can’t really trust anybody and the village will hopefully pick a wolf of 4 in 9?

Whether you think I’m a wolf or a villager You don’t see the real benefits at this stage of the VIG coming out? Discuss the merits of the plan, not me, that’s all that matters now, is this a good plan for the village?

Barney92

Choc Chip wrote: »

Really have to go, but once vig comes out, motion detector is essentially a seer anyway. If they know who the vig is and who the vig has shot, any other motion is wolf muncher or munchee

Fair point. So vig coming out now means we gain a seer a night earlier than the shot from a vig would be. Okay we'd lose an extra kill but if we can get a wolf tonight then it's possible that the wolf given orders is detected.

Downside of that is it's not really a true seer because the other wolves will just be shown as no motion. So it's really a restricted seer. It may still outweigh the negatives of losing a vig though.

Vig coming out
Pro
Reduces change of lynch a villager (increased chance of lynching wolf)
Gives wolves a choice between detector and vig
May be able to detect wolf

Cons
Vig likely to be munched (not certain because of the possibility of a wayward shot) - lose our extra kill
Chances of detecting wolf giving orders is slim in scenario where vig is munched.

Clarabel

Player Subs total Start D2-1 Start D2-2 Posted D2 - 2 Start D3 - 1 Posted D3 - 1 Start D3 - 2 Posted Yesterday
Dublinandy2 146 158 12 201 43 206 5
Choc Chip 78 97 19 122 25 133 11
Clarabel 86 91 5 155 64 181 26
Bounty Hunter 75 87 12 99 12 113 14
Drumpot 55 67 87 20 97 10 116 19
kitten_k 48 57 9 82 25 102 20
Strawberry Milkshake 33 46 57 11 66 9 77 11
Whiplashy 45 55 10 99 44 112 13
Barney92 35 49 14 74 25 82 8
fixxxer 43 48 5 60 12 72 12


Not sure really what is meant by low posters....

Barney and Dandy are lowest posters - Dandy already on the list. Should we review Barney as a low poster - but lets review rather than just lynch a low poster

Kitten has high posts but nothing of substance


Choc, Stawbs, whip and fixxer are next in group of lower posters -I'm not sure this helps?

fixXxer

Or vig comes out, wolves counter claim we have another messy vote lynch a villager and lose. I have a feeling that if we're lynching a wolf we'll have a vig claim anyway to mess things up and scatter the votes again.

Our chances of winning are slim, in my opinion vug stays hidden. We lynch Dandy tonight. We'll lose Whippy tomorrow morning but then we have a lynch and a vig shot and the vig can come out then.

Barney92

Drumpot wrote: »

Lucky last night wasn’t a lynch, was in bed by 9, absolutely exhausted.

Dandy will prob be my vote. Could of been an accident by a wolf but a villager using the word “pocket” in the middle of a CFD (or at least what looked like a frantic period that ended up killing a villager) just looks so bad.

And then they come back on thread and don’t even discuss it on any capacity, with multiple posts. My post just before his set out exactly why he was being accused so he didn’t have to look too far to see a summarized explanation. He knew he was being accused as he said it.

I can be lazy or too tired to scroll through the thread but I literally spelt everything out in my post just before dandy came back on air!!!! Feels like buying time. He could be exhausted and needs time to compose or get a story together. I’ve been lynched for less!

I missed the post the first time around due to the panic around the lynch but had been waiting for him to respond to it since your questioning of it yesterday morning. The ignore tactic seems to be a wolf move hoping it doesn't get any bigger. It doesn't seem to be working for him though

Clarabel

Drumpot wrote: »

Clarabel appears to be a bit confused and ...

story of my life :D:D

Drumpot wrote: »

If Barney and Dandy have pocketed her (as wolves) it makes sense as a wolf tactic. If it’s a wolf play by Clarabel, well it’s fooled me.

I felt pocketed at the time, I've never moved off Dandy.
What's this Barney pocket about?

Barney92

Barney92 wrote: »

Fair point. So vig coming out now means we gain a seer a night earlier than the shot from a vig would be. Okay we'd lose an extra kill but if we can get a wolf tonight then it's possible that the wolf given orders is detected.

Downside of that is it's not really a true seer because the other wolves will just be shown as no motion. So it's really a restricted seer. It may still outweigh the negatives of losing a vig though.

Vig coming out
Pro
Reduces change of lynch a villager (increased chance of lynching wolf)
Gives wolves a choice between detector and vig
May be able to detect wolf

Cons
Vig likely to be munched (not certain because of the possibility of a wayward shot) - lose our extra kill
Chances of detecting wolf giving orders is slim in scenario where vig is munched.

Further pro of the vig coming out. It's possible the wolves know who the vig is. In which case coming out would give the village information the wolves already have.

fixXxer

Barney92 wrote: »

Further pro of the vig coming out. It's possible the wolves know who the vig is. In which case coming out would give the village information the wolves already have.

How would they know? I cant see the matrix graph at work.

Clarabel

fixxxer wrote: »

How would they know? I cant see the matrix graph at work.

They have a seer

Barney92

fixxxer wrote: »

How would they know? I cant see the matrix graph at work.

Since we know there was a JOAT and we've also had an even night kill then we are in 2D. That means the wolves have a role cop. Presumably they've been role copping different players to the ones they're munching since they've not munched a roled player yet and may have found the vig.

From OP

Role Cop: Learns the role of the player they target each night. Note that the village does not have one of these in this set up.

Drumpot

This is a thin theory but it was something you said and then some posts around the last lynch:

This is Barney Responding to you during the lynch

Barney92 wrote: »

It took around two minutes because you can search for cheezy on a page and then note the time of the post. It was less me defending them, and more pointing out what I thought was a poor accusation.

This was very soon after Dandy’s Pitential wolf Gaff. If they were working together the potentially pocketed person was you.

Then this is your own post

Clarabel wrote: »

Drum I didn't want to answer but I agree with the reason for that pocket comment. I too find it odd that Kitten responded for Dandy.

I started the bandwagon on Uriel and then moved it to Kitten following Barney (I think) suggestion. Kitten panicked and moved it from her back to cheesy.

Maybe I interpreted this wrong but it looks like Barney was influencing your vote.

Clarabel wrote: »

I felt pocketed at the time, I've never moved off Dandy.
What's this Barney pocket about?

This is one of my tunnel theories so it may not stack up. I think with so much on the line tonight I’ve nothing to lose by posting it.

Drumpot

Clarabel wrote: »

Player Subs total Start D2-1 Start D2-2 Posted D2 - 2 Start D3 - 1 Posted D3 - 1 Start D3 - 2 Posted Yesterday
Dublinandy2 146 158 12 201 43 206 5
Choc Chip 78 97 19 122 25 133 11
Clarabel 86 91 5 155 64 181 26
Bounty Hunter 75 87 12 99 12 113 14
Drumpot 55 67 87 20 97 10 116 19
kitten_k 48 57 9 82 25 102 20
Strawberry Milkshake 33 46 57 11 66 9 77 11
Whiplashy 45 55 10 99 44 112 13
Barney92 35 49 14 74 25 82 8
fixxxer 43 48 5 60 12 72 12


Not sure really what is meant by low posters....

Barney and Dandy are lowest posters - Dandy already on the list. Should we review Barney as a low poster - but lets review rather than just lynch a low poster

Kitten has high posts but nothing of substance


Choc, Stawbs, whip and fixxer are next in group of lower posters -I'm not sure this helps?

Posts like this deflate me. I’ve Been working off the assumption you are a bit swamped

Barney92

Drumpot wrote: »

This is a thin theory but it was something you said and then some posts around the last lynch:

This is Barney Responding to you during the lynch



This was very soon after Dandy’s Pitential wolf Gaff. If they were working together the potentially pocketed person was you.

Then this is your own post




Maybe I interpreted this wrong but it looks like Barney was influencing your vote.



This is one of my tunnel theories so it may not stack up. I think with so much on the line tonight I’ve nothing to lose by posting it.

I said I was voting for kitten. Clara seemed hesitant and then joined me on it after I explained that we would lynch kitten as it stood because of the tie break rules. So I may have influenced her vote but I'm not sure where the pocketing thing comes from.

Drumpot

Barney92 wrote: »

I said I was voting for kitten. Clara seemed hesitant and then joined me on it after I explained that we would lynch kitten as it stood because of the tie break rules. So I may have influenced her vote but I'm not sure where the pocketing thing comes from.

It’s more because she felt she was pocketed, that Dandy said it on thread and you happened to be influencing her. If she was as confused as she has come across this would make sense.

However , her post with that comprehensive list irks me. She has been misinterpreting things I’ve said more then once. Like totally misinterpreting my copy and paste post on Dandy. I’ve been working off above theory that Clarabel is a bit lost and could be targeted by wolves for a pocket.

Clarabel

Drumpot wrote: »

This is a thin theory but it was something you said and then some posts around the last lynch:

This is Barney Responding to you during the lynch



This was very soon after Dandy’s Pitential wolf Gaff. If they were working together the potentially pocketed person was you.

Then this is your own post




Maybe I interpreted this wrong but it looks like Barney was influencing your vote.



This is one of my tunnel theories so it may not stack up. I think with so much on the line tonight I’ve nothing to lose by posting it.

Okay, I can see that. I can explain. I was looking to create panic at the lynch. There was no panic on Uriel so when Barney suggested Kitten I was happy to move since she was already on my FFA. I don't feel I was pocketed by him.

Drum I'm really getting village off you now. I'm so confused. I know I'm tunneling though cause I can't do a FFA beyond people I've actively interacted with.

Barney92

Actually drumpot here is the last interaction between myself before clara's deeply pocketed comment. It was also two hours before her comment about being pocketed. It is me saying the genie thing didn't seem quite a fair accusation to level at cheezy and clara challenging me on it. How that equates to me pocketing her, or her feeling pocketed by me, I really don't know.

Barney92 wrote: »

It's not a good look but there have been posts about people suspecting cheazy pretty much throughout the day. Having a quick check there were posts at
5.28
8.48
9.02
11.26
12.42
12.59
14.26
15.47

I may have missed some. Genie could probably then have been levelled at any time throughout the day and not looked too out of place.

Clarabel wrote: »

We have a pair

Barney92 wrote: »

I may well be on the same team as cheezy, I don't know yet. But I will call out accusations that I see as potentially questionable.

Clarabel wrote: »

It didn't strike me as genie in particular. I didn't feel the need to rush out and do a huge amount of work to gather his posting times and defend him.

Almost two hours later - I had no posts between these two of clara.

Clarabel wrote: »

I feel deeply pocketed right now

Drumpot

Clarabel wrote: »

Okay, I can see that. I can explain. I was looking to create panic at the lynch. There was no panic on Uriel so when Barney suggested Kitten I was happy to move since she was already on my FFA. I don't feel I was pocketed by him.

Drum I'm really getting village off you now. I'm so confused. I know I'm tunneling though cause I can't do a FFA beyond people I've actively interacted with.

You were looking to create a panic at lynch? I’m not sure that’s great village play

And for somebody so confused you have been diligently keeping track of things

Clarabel wrote: »

Player Subs total Start D2-1 Start D2-2 Posted D2 - 2 Start D3 - 1 Posted D3 - 1 Start D3 - 2 Posted Yesterday
Dublinandy2 146 158 12 201 43 206 5
Choc Chip 78 97 19 122 25 133 11
Clarabel 86 91 5 155 64 181 26
Bounty Hunter 75 87 12 99 12 113 14
Drumpot 55 67 87 20 97 10 116 19
kitten_k 48 57 9 82 25 102 20
Strawberry Milkshake 33 46 57 11 66 9 77 11
Whiplashy 45 55 10 99 44 112 13
Barney92 35 49 14 74 25 82 8
fixxxer 43 48 5 60 12 72 12

Perhaps I’m the confused villager , not you!

Drumpot

Barney , imagine I’m a villager trying to work a few things out on thread. That’s what I am.

Maybe the pocket comment was dandy to team mate Clarabel accidently posted on thread?

I’ve been working off the assumption that Clarebel is finding it hard to keep up but that comprehensive list suggests the opposite.

I think I need to take a step back. I’m tunneling here.

Barney92

Drumpot wrote: »

Barney , imagine I’m a villager trying to work a few things out on thread. That’s what I am.

Maybe the pocket comment was dandy to team mate Clarabel accidently posted on thread?

I’ve been working off the assumption that Clarebel is finding it hard to keep up but that comprehensive list suggests the opposite.

I think I need to take a step back. I’m tunneling here.

You do come across as villagery, throwing out different ideas. I think a wolf would come across as more certain. That's making me doubt my idea of a you, choc, dandy team. Although maybe the wolves planned that one of them would just throw things out there. I'm not ruling you out of being on a team with dandy but seems to be getting less likely to me given his reactions to your posts. A wolf team would probably have planned an accusation and response there.

Bounty Hunter

God damn Tents suck!

Reading back has re-affirmed my belief that Drumpot & Dandy at the very least are not on the same wolf team.

Him questioning why do we believe Whippy when there has been no counter claim and suggesting that the Vig come out did initially seem dodgy to me but tbh I see the logic behind the Vig comment as it's do or die time this lynch and obviously the places wolves could hide would lesson with the Vig out.

Current votes;

Clara - Vote - kitten_k
Whip - Vote dublinandy2
DAndy - Vote fixxxer
Fixxxer - vote Dublinandy2
BH - vote Dublinandy2
Choc - vote kitten_k
Clara - vote Dublinandy2
Clara - Vote Drumpot

DAndy - 3 - Whip, BH, Fixxer
Fixxer - 1 - DAndy
Kitten - 1 - Choc
Drumpot - 1 - Clara

Felt sure DP had voted DAndy for some reason but either way I think DAndy will need to get on and explain some of his contradictory / pocket related comments if things are to change. He seemed to vote just before his string of 5 posts this morning but didn't mention Fixxer in them

Drumpot

BH I wasn’t questioning Whippys claim I was posting why we believe it. I was trying to put some sort of summary of where we are at at how we got here.

I haven’t voted yet but don’t see how it won’t be dandy.

If dandy comes in after 7 and starts explaining himself (or claims VIG) I call BS. It would be the perfect wolf play. Total chaos and panic which is what happened the last time.

fixXxer

<mOsT wOlfY>

Dublinandy2
kitten_k

Strawberry Milkshake
Choc Chip
Barney92
Clarabel
Bounty Hunter

Bagpot
Whiplashy
fixxxer

<mOsT vIlLaGe>


Mostly for notes for myself bu thats how I see things right now.

fixXxer

For better or worse we are going to have to ignore any role claims at lynch time.

Wolf will vig claim if going and try and get us to change, the chances of accidentally getting another wolf are pretty slim.