Death knell for petrol and diesel cars?

namloc1980

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

And I'm saying the infrastructure is being rolled out. There is the Ionity network. Lidl are installing charging points in all their stores. Local authorities have to provide hundreds of charging points every year as part of the plan.

Home charging solution for the large numbers of urban dwellers without off street parking is a must to make EVs viable in an urban environment.

Gile_na_gile

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/climate-plan-1m-electric-cars-by-2030-target-does-not-look-realistic-1.3929310

Every new car would have to be electric to make the target....

Obvious set of obvious policies:
1. Programme of adding charger points to lamposts in urban areas with limited private parking.
2. Implement mandated charging points of 20% for all new car parks.
3. Increase budget for infrastructure to install banks of FCPs with charging from ESB itself, as well as Ionity/Tesla etc.
4. Mandated use of EVs for civil service, commercial, where appropriate.
5. Bring EVs to every town and village as a travelling roadshow like done recently in Wexford.
6. Greater state involvement in securing supply of EVs to our island, in collab with UK/NI pending Brexit nonsense.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

How far are you driving each way?

About 25km each way assuming going directly between work and home, 2 or 3 times a week I wouldn’t go directly home which would extend the distance up to around 30km.

drunkmonkey

Even if we've a million EV's on the road by 2030 there's still going to be more voters driving Diesels and Petrols. Roughly 1.5 million. Let's see how far they can jack fuel prices/ car tax before the yellow jackets come out.

This pretty much nails the bullcrap that is this plan, were already no where near the numbers given for EV's on the road by 2020 https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/motors/climate-plan-1m-electric-cars-by-2030-target-does-not-look-realistic-1.3929310?mode=amp

bk

namloc1980 wrote: »

Home charging solution for the large numbers of urban dwellers without off street parking is a must to make EVs viable in an urban environment.

Actually one of the disappointing upsides of Irelands housing market, is that most people do have their own parking spot.

Compared to most EU countries, we have relatively few apartments and relatively few homes without parking.

That isn't to say that we don't need to do anything for apartment dwellers (which I am myself BTW), etc. Just that there is comparably few of them.

BTW The plan does include two items to help the above:
- 200 new "slow" EV public charging points per year.
- Subsidy for free charging point is being extended to shared apartment parking.

Also the plan mentions changes to planning requirements to make EV charging a requirement for new builds.

GreeBo

adocholiday wrote: »

I have a 60km commute each way to work, I drive a 2010 diesel car and I intend on driving it until it's dead. I was going to upgrade to an electric when I moved but price, lack of charging options where I work, and the fact that the tech is evolving at a rapid pace completely put me off. 31k for the most basic Hyundai Ioniq electric is madness IMO.

Did you actually look at the spec though?
The "most basic" has pretty much what would be top spec in a non EV.

The tech is going to continue to evolve, if you continue to wait you will have paid for a couple of new EVs in running costs on your diesel.

adocholiday wrote: »

If the government are serious about going green they need to seriously invest in public transport. I'd take a train or bus if it were viable for me, but even though I live a 5 minute drive from a direct train into Dublin the fact that it's a single line with only 2 morning services and 1 viable evening service means that it's not even an option for me. So unless electric vehicles become viable for people outside the cities and/or public transport is massively upgraded, I'll be driving a petrol or diesel car until it is forcefully taken from me.

EV's are already viable for people outside of cities.
60KM is nothing to an EV these days.
Kona and Nero do over 400KM to a charge.

It wont be forcibly be taken off you, it will be priced away from you.

GreeBo

jmayo wrote: »

I drive a 12 year old diesel and have had it for 8 years, the one before that was 7 years old, and the one before that was 11 years old when I got rid of it.

Now yes they may be smoky on start up. Actually the 7 year old one was very smoky when the engine blew and the injectors went into meltdown.

But I am not having any impact on environment on creation of brand spanking new cars every few years.

And I am not also buying new electric battery powered goods every year or two just so that I can claim I have the latest gizmo.

What environmental impact is one having if they are going out every other year and buying new devices and now new cars that have fancy hitech rare earth mineral batteries ?
How much of the worlds salt flats are going to be left, how many more heavily polluted areas are we going to see in Tibet ?

BTW if they are talking about phasing out fossil fuels by 2030 how are they going to construct and maintain all these necessary wind farms ?
How will they power the ships and trucks necessary in the construction of these wind farms ?

So you are confirming that your old diesel is polluting and costing you more and more to keep on the road.

I dont think anyone said you have to buy a new car every few years and as for the gizmo comment :rolleyes:

Danzy

only buy Diesels if you are going to drive them in to the ground time wise.

Their resale values are collapsing in many neighbouring countries.

Started here as well this just will speed up an already present trend.

GreeBo

Danzy wrote: »

only buy Diesels if you are going to drive them in to the ground time wise.

Thats just throwing good money after bad if you are commuting long distances.

ShadowHearth

Atoms for Peace wrote: »

You'll have to pry the manual gear stick from my cold dead hand hand before I'll drive an EV. Petrol for ever!!
But seriously what about hydrogen, the cleanest fuel source there is.
The environment impact of producing all these batteries and cars is not being considered at all, we dont seem to have learned from the last cock up when a green government started an idiotic diesel fad.

I am really as far as it could be from politics. I just know there was election or something recently, and the only reason I know it, because all country was plastered in posters. Then I heard the Greens? Won it. First thought I had: wasn't the same party who completely ****ed up last time and made diesel great? How the **** these people are back in power?

One way or another, it's just going to be another increase in tax for us. Not actual fight for better future.
As for next car I am on the fence. One side of me telling me to keep my car and wait out until 2020/2021 and go full electric as by that time there will be more on the market. The other part of me says: soon you won't be able to have cool petrol cars, so go mad now while something is still there! Get Cupra or i30N and have the last good "**** yeah"!!!

sk8board

To come back to the thread title, is the death knell going to sound for petrol and diesel private vehicles - yes i think that's pretty obvious at this stage - however its baffling that people are worrying about making a decision today to buy a diesel Ford Focus for July 1st, when in reality its 2-3 cars down the line they will need to make that call, and then the Gov will have got off their ass and the decision itself won't be a cliff-hanger.

The death knell happens when we replace our national fleet of 2.4 million cars. To put it in perspective, according to beepbeep we have sold just 3,000 EV's since 2014, and maybe half that in imports. Even with monstrous annual growth in EV sales (which i believe will happen), that changeover will still take decades to reach a tipping point.
If every new car sold for the next decade was electric, it would represent 1m of that 2.4m national fleet.

The government aren't going to make changes that affect voters until there is a critical mass of viable EV options for people to purchase. For now, like the rest of us, they're happy to let early adopters spend big bucks on Leafs, Konas, Niros and model 3's, and see how the public opinion reacts.

This is a generational changeover.

BarryD2

jmayo wrote: »

I drive a 12 year old diesel and have had it for 8 years, the one before that was 7 years old, and the one before that was 11 years old when I got rid of it.

Now yes they may be smoky on start up. Actually the 7 year old one was very smoky when the engine blew and the injectors went into meltdown.

But I am not having any impact on environment on creation of brand spanking new cars every few years.

And I am not also buying new electric battery powered goods every year or two just so that I can claim I have the latest gizmo.

What environmental impact is one having if they are going out every other year and buying new devices and now new cars that have fancy hitech rare earth mineral batteries ?
How much of the worlds salt flats are going to be left, how many more heavily polluted areas are we going to see in Tibet ?

BTW if they are talking about phasing out fossil fuels by 2030 how are they going to construct and maintain all these necessary wind farms ?
How will they power the ships and trucks necessary in the construction of these wind farms ?

Service and maintain it and keep it going as long as possible - that is the most responsible Green response. Despite what social media and government policy may be.

There is a massive gap between current use, supply and culture and what is proposed. Anyone who thinks that the EV & Heat Pump options will have the same cost benefit structure going forward is deluded. We pay for energy now and we'll be paying more for it in years to come, whether that's from fossil fuels or other sources.

Danzy

GreeBo wrote: »

Thats just throwing good money after bad if you are commuting long distances.

What I meant was buy Diesel presuming you'll scrap the car, not sell it 2nd hand.

GreeBo

Danzy wrote: »

What I meant was buy Diesel presuming you'll scrap the car, not sell it 2nd hand.

Yeah I know, but running a car into the ground, especially a diesel is going to get very expensive after a while.

Better to buy a new EV now and finance it. Will be cheaper in the long run.

BarryD2 wrote: »

Service and maintain it and keep it going as long as possible - that is the most responsible Green response. Despite what social media and government policy may be.

Possibly the most environmentally responsible thing to do, not sure its a responsible thing on your wallet though.

drunkmonkey

You can't state and EV will be cheaper in the long run, you don't know Depreciation rates on current cars when the next crop start coming next year and you also don't know the cost of Electricity in the future. There's also insurance costs which I think could be off the wall once EV accidents are an every day thing.

ILikeBoats

ShadowHearth wrote: »

The other part of me says: soon you won't be able to have cool petrol cars, so go mad now while something is still there! Get Cupra or i30N and have the last good "**** yeah"!!!

Yes!

Danzy

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You can't state and EV will be cheaper in the long run, you don't know Depreciation rates on current cars when the next crop start coming next year and you also don't know the cost of Electricity in the future. There's also insurance costs which I think could be off the wall once EV accidents are an every day thing.

The last Toyota Diesels are being sold now, the largest car maker in the world, out of that business in last year.

All their Petrols to be hybrid, very shortly.

The Govt announcement on cars is a moot point, the car companies are walking away from Electricity and Diesel.

SleetAndSnow

Danzy wrote: »

The last Toyota Diesels are being sold now, the largest car maker in the world, out of that business in last year.

All their Petrols to be hybrid, very shortly.

The Govt announcement on cars is a moot point, the car companies are walking away from Electricity and Diesel.

Toyota announced they are pushing their fully electric range forward by 5 years 2 weeks or so ago? Not walking away

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-electric/toyota-speeds-up-electric-vehicle-schedule-as-demand-heats-up-idUSKCN1T806X

InTheShadows

People need to read up on how much damage a new car does to the environment in terms of production be it EV, hybrid, petrol or diesel. My 11 year old I30 Diesel which we bought brand new will be kept by us for another 10 years at the very least. It's the people who don't go out and change car every other year that are really doing the planet a service.

8-10

Kristopher Nervous Killer wrote: »

About 25km each way assuming going directly between work and home, 2 or 3 times a week I wouldn’t go directly home which would extend the distance up to around 30km.

Yeah I do 22km each way. I'd say you wouldn't know yourself in an electric. I go 650km on a 30L petrol tank in my hybrid so fuel costs are way way down. I drive pretty economically which I actually find makes me a safer driver overall. Lower tax and insurance too. Even less going full electric

cournioni

The One Doctor wrote: »

Diesel is polluting on a personal level. In a city, emissions are concentrated and people's health is affected in the long run. Children are much more likely to have respiratory problems.

The irony about all this is that the Greens were the party that made the diesel so popular. Their shortsighted policies caused a lot of health problems for people in towns and cities

The end will come for diesels. Diesels are more expensive than petrols over the long run anyway. €1000 injectors, DMF, DPF, ad blue, turbos, pump problems...

Transferring pollution from an exhaust pipe doesn't solve the issue. You will still have pollution somewhere and if that is from a power plant it most likely will not be localised anyway! You will have issues on some level. Consumption is the major issue and that won't stop while the population keeps growing.

What do you think will happen when extra capacity will be required from power stations if EV's ever become the norm? What makes you think that the infrastructure will ever be in place to service them? We can barely build roads or rail ffs!

€1000 is for a set brand new injectors (which more often than not is not a requirement). There are a few workshops that repair them with genuine parts for a fraction of that price.

GreeBo

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You can't state and EV will be cheaper in the long run, you don't know Depreciation rates on current cars when the next crop start coming next year and you also don't know the cost of Electricity in the future. There's also insurance costs which I think could be off the wall once EV accidents are an every day thing.

Well I know what the running costs for a 10 year old diesel are compared to a new EV.

Why will insurance costs be more for an EV than an ICE?

BarryD2

InTheShadows wrote: »

People need to read up on how much damage a new car does to the environment in terms of production be it EV, hybrid, petrol or diesel. My 11 year old I30 Diesel which we bought brand new will be kept by us for another 10 years at the very least. It's the people who don't go out and change car every other year that are really doing the planet a service.

And up to government policy to acknowledge and support this - instead of skewing the market and encouraging churning of the fleet as they've done in the past.

GreeBo wrote: »

Well I know what the running costs for a 10 year old diesel are compared to a new EV.

Not quite, you know the current running costs of a new EV. No way in the world that these will remain as they are, the only way is up.

lalababa

Eric Cartman wrote: »

GreeBo wrote: »

There will be thousands of second hand electric cars by then...whats the issue?

Unlike ICE cars, when they get to about 10 years old , the cost of replacing the battery makes them almost a writeoff. As they get cheaper it will make them worth scrap

That's only a popular unversed in car economics point of view. For the last 2/3 decades most ICE cars are of a quality that PROPERLY SERVICED will last 20+years . Even on this small Island nation (ie rust).
Now you take out all the servicing and problems going along with combustion engines and you are left with a even more long lasting setup. After 10 yrs when the battery is shot, you stick in a new (probably better) pack for 5k and motor on for another 10yr.s. this is the mechanical and economical reality. It is NOT the actual reality however as average Joe bloggs does not want to be seen in an old car.

knipex

unkel wrote: »

EVs are largely charged at night. Up to 75% of Ireland's night time electricity supply is from wind. This percentage increases every year. Should be up to 100% within the next few years (on a windy night of course)

That's because night time demand is low. Add 1 million EV's plugging in and that changes, demand rises and the percentage of electricity generated by wind drops like a stone..

You cannot have a reliable, demand led electricity system based on wind power. Its not physically possible unless you have terrawatt hours of storage

elperello

What will happen to all the diesel and petrol cars which are still being sold today?
The people who are buying them today for 30k + are hardly going to be tempted by a scrappage deal of 1.5k in three years time.

bear1

I wonder how much energy will be needed in order to crush all the cars that will then become eventually unsellable.
While I think we should be moving away from fossil fuels on a whole but to outright ban the sale of them in just over a decade is a bit unfair.
10 years ago they preached how diesel was the way forward, everyone went and bought them to just have 200e motor tax.
Now we are being told we need to have electric cars and there's nothing we can do about it.
Watch the tax on anything possible be increased to pay for all of this.

elperello

elperello wrote: »

What will happen to all the diesel and petrol cars which are still being sold today?
The people who are buying them today for 30k + are hardly going to be tempted by a scrappage deal of 1.5k in three years time.

Are garages going to stop selling petrol and diesel ?
I dont think so

knipex

8-10 wrote: »

These lazy myths are tiresome. It is demonstrably not shifting the burden equivalently onto power plants.

https://knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/the-four-most-prevalent-myths-about-electric-cars-10381

Electric cars is the future and I can't wait to trade up my hybrid to full electric. Never going back.

No offense but that link is a joke.

Concern about pollution from disposal of batteries.

Current cars have batteries too.

GreeBo

BarryD2 wrote: »

Not quite, you know the current running costs of a new EV. No way in the world that these will remain as they are, the only way is up.

THey have a long, long way to go to reach the fuel costs of Petrol or Diesel.

And even if they did, maintenance etc are all cheaper due to less moving parts.

GreeBo

BrownFinger wrote: »

Are garages going to stop selling petrol and diesel ?
I dont think so

They already make more from their shops and delis than they do from fuel.

If an EV owner has to spend 10 mins charging, what do you reckon they will do with that time? My money is on their money being spent in the shop.

Hence garages are going to devote more infra to EV charging than petrol pumps.
its only a matter of time.

elperello

BrownFinger wrote: »

Are garages going to stop selling petrol and diesel ?
I dont think so

I'd say you are right.
Petrol will still be needed for lawnmowers, outboard engines etc.

I was more thinking of where will the actual cars end up.
If the scrappage isn't near the market value of the car they might be exported to Africa.

ThunbergsAreGo

Nikki Sixx wrote: »

You are right Paddy. But this will change attitudes towards Diesels in particular. That parity in the price of diesel and petrol can be brought in with the stroke of a pen. I can see some headline grabbing politician bringing that in sooner rather than later. Also the push towards electric cars will happen sooner than they are saying. I feel they are flying a kite to see people’s reaction. With the recent popularity of the Green Party, all these ideas can be fast tracked.

What is this popularity, they got 8%!

ThunbergsAreGo

BrownFinger wrote: »

Are garages going to stop selling petrol and diesel ?
I dont think so

I actually hadnt thought of the impact of that on the industry, likely lead to a number of job losses

Micky 32

Had a spin in a Tesla electric car couple weeks back. Getting in it i was just underwelmed thinking how boring the drive would be..

Afterwards i was left scratching my head staring into space and questioning myself was that actually an EV! It felt like a 300bhp car!

Leonard Hofstadter

Danzy wrote: »

drunkmonkey wrote: »

You can't state and EV will be cheaper in the long run, you don't know Depreciation rates on current cars when the next crop start coming next year and you also don't know the cost of Electricity in the future. There's also insurance costs which I think could be off the wall once EV accidents are an every day thing.

The last Toyota Diesels are being sold now, the largest car maker in the world, out of that business in last year.

All their Petrols to be hybrid, very shortly.

The Govt announcement on cars is a moot point, the car companies are walking away from Electricity and Diesel.

Toyota are still making diesels, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, all they've done is stop making them for passenger cars. All of their commercial vehicles and SUVs, like the Land Cruiser, will continue to be available with diesel. They still make their own diesels by the way.

lalababa

Micky 32 wrote: »

Had a spin in a Tesla electric car couple weeks back. Getting in it i was just underwelmed thinking how boring the drive would be..

Afterwards i was left scratching my head staring into space and questioning myself was that actually an EV! It felt like a 300bhp car!

Ha..ha.. yeah like we all live in an episode of top gear! Why would anyone need more than 100BHP or 90 or 80 ect. on a public road? Unless pulling a big heavy trailer? What are you going to do with a 300BHP car on a public road? Beat everyone off the lights?? Doing so might actually fall into careless driving category. As harsh acceleration can be dangerous.

Mike9832

GreeBo wrote: »

Did you actually look at the spec though?
The "most basic" has pretty much what would be top spec in a non EV.

The tech is going to continue to evolve, if you continue to wait you will have paid for a couple of new EVs in running costs on your diesel.



EV's are already viable for people outside of cities.
60KM is nothing to an EV these days.
Kona and Nero do over 400KM to a charge.

It wont be forcibly be taken off you, it will be priced away from you.

A 180km range Ioniq for €31,000 is not the solution to replace Octavia diesel's as someone previous suggested.

Kona and Niro are mad money

Until manufacturers stop with the rip off prices, electric is a waste of time

I can't understand how a bloody Kona is €50,000 ( less €10,000 grants to bring it to €40,000 otr )

It's not perfect, but to estimate what an EV should cost for now

ICE version top spec + battery cost

A petrol Kona is €28,000 for an amazing spec + €10,000 for a battery brings it to €38,000, less €10,000 grants brings it down to €28,000

How in the hell can Hyundai keep a straight face charging bloody €40,000 for one after grants, laughing all the way to the bank

Goverment announcements like this are music to the ears of autogiants, going to fleece people changing over to electric

Really hate incentives, grants , goverment interference

Let the market decide

Are the goverment going to lower electricity unit cost now that diesel and petrol will be going up?

****

Micky 32

lalababa wrote: »

Ha..ha.. yeah like we all live in an episode of top gear! Why would anyone need more than 100BHP or 90 or 80 ect. on a public road? Unless pulling a big heavy trailer? What are you going to do with a 300BHP car on a public road? Beat everyone off the lights?? Doing so might actually fall into careless driving category. As harsh acceleration can be dangerous.

I have a 300bhp diesel car and there's no way i'm swapping it for a 100bhp one it's much more fun to drive. I hope that doesn't upset you too much or give you sleepless nights :rolleyes:

Anyway you missed the point of my post.

Danzy

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Toyota announced they are pushing their fully electric range forward by 5 years 2 weeks or so ago? Not walking away

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-electric/toyota-speeds-up-electric-vehicle-schedule-as-demand-heats-up-idUSKCN1T806X

Typo meant petrol and diesel.

Diesel is dead to big car makers and petrol isn't far behind.

lalababa

lalababa wrote: »

100BHP or 90 or 80

80BHP
80......GTFOH

Danzy

BrownFinger wrote: »

Are garages going to stop selling petrol and diesel ?
I dont think so

No but car manufacturers will stop making vehicles for them in any meaningful numbers.

InTheShadows

People are living in cloud cookoo land if they think Ireland has the infrastructure to deal with charging for all these proposed EV's.

tiberium

AMKC wrote: »

I fixed your post for you. It is no new gas boilers from 2025 but there will still be plenty of houses out there with both oil and gas boilers. I would say it will take another decade or two before there is no gas or oil boilers in any houses.

Also I think its great. I never liked diesel cars they are dirty but petrol were not too bad. I do think it will be great if there is a million electric cars on the roads in the next decade and less petrol as well as dirty diesel cars.

Where did you get that information the diesel is dirty? Older generation, yes.
But on new EURO6 diesel you can try to wipe the inner side on the outlet of the exhaust pipe and your tissue paper will remain clean...EURO6 is almost puffs out nothing...
Electric cars manufacturing process causes much more pollution and CO2 emissions (especially the battery) plus EVs has totally short range, too long to charge and too expensive.
The government are using the climate change to just push more taxes on us and does that brainlessly.

jon1981

jon1981 wrote: »

I wonder what the plan is for buses, trucks, vans, plant equipment...etc.

125,000 new cars sold last year in Ireland. Hitting 1m e-cars by 2030 is ambitious given the price point and lack of options such as reasonably priced SUV and MPV.

Try getting something like a V70 in an EV.

This would cause so much less issue if they said, no cars registered after 2025 will be allowed into XYZ.
It brings it in quicker and anyone buying a car after 2025 will buy EV, driving the EV 2nd hand market, allowing for less well off people to afford an EV easier in time for 2030

is_that_so

InTheShadows wrote: »

People are living in cloud cookoo land if they think Ireland has the infrastructure to deal with charging for all these proposed EV's.

It doesn't but part of the plan is to have it.

lalababa

I'm sorry. I just don't know how you can use all 300BHP on a public road. Is there a car computer app. that can measure it?

Micky 32

lalababa wrote: »

I'm sorry. I just don't know how you can use all 300BHP on a public road. Is there a car computer app. that can measure it?

Yes you can if you want to, quite handy for overtaking, i also like the feel of the acceleration, i love it Also more power especially torque makes the car more relaxing to drive without having to drive fast. When i get into my fathers 100bhp car i find the car more work and tiring to drive on a long drive.

But once again you're missing the point of my post about the Tesla. The point was EV's can be good.

jmayo

GreeBo wrote: »

So you are confirming that your old diesel is polluting and costing you more and more to keep on the road.

I dont think anyone said you have to buy a new car every few years and as for the gizmo comment :rolleyes:

And do you think that marvelous new EV, hybrid, whatever car is magically constructed without any pollution ?
And if it is electric or hybrid then where does all that lithium magically appear from ?

BTW how often do you replace your car ?

And yes you can make all the snide rolleyes you like, but if you just replace your fully functioning tablet, and especially your phone, just to get the latest one you are bloody well polluting the planet for no reason.

Likewise with the eejits running out to buy the likes of a new fridge with a bloody tablet.

Micky 32 wrote: »

Had a spin in a Tesla electric car couple weeks back. Getting in it i was just underwelmed thinking how boring the drive would be..

Afterwards i was left scratching my head staring into space and questioning myself was that actually an EV! It felt like a 300bhp car!

Well it does have around 12kg of lithium.

Of course the mining and refining of that has no pollution effects according to some round here. :rolleyes:

Danzy

InTheShadows wrote: »

People are living in cloud cookoo land if they think Ireland has the infrastructure to deal with charging for all these proposed EV's.

It isn't that big of a project over a decade.

The wider market will dictate though, we can stick with nearly all Diesel and Petrol and fall behind or pull the finger out and keep going.