Death knell for petrol and diesel cars?

turbbo

Danzy wrote: »

Typo meant petrol and diesel.

Diesel is dead to big car makers and petrol isn't far behind.

Quote a non Japanese based company that is saying Diesel is dead - the Japanese car companies never really got into diesel - hence the Diesel is dead rhetoric coming from Toyota. If Diesel is dead so is Petrol - It's carbon emissions that the governments have to curb. Hybrids and the like are just a way for car companies to buy themselves time - they really need to speed up and join Tesla and start making proper EVs with reasonable comfort levels, and reduce the cost because at the moment they are no match for what Diesels offer.

pwurple

InTheShadows wrote: »

People are living in cloud cookoo land if they think Ireland has the infrastructure to deal with charging for all these proposed EV's.

LOLs. The HORROR

Seeing as all you need is access to a frikken socket, I think we can manage it.
:rolleyes:


Ref: We're in our 5th year of driving EVs. Charge at home or at work, once a week. You'd swear Ireland was the size of south america the way people go on.


And for the record, our 5 year old car has a battery degradation of 0%. Still showing at 97% cell health, same as the day we swished silently off the forecourt in it. The 3 year old one is the same.. Ireland doesn't have the extremes of high and low temperatures that cause battery damage in cars.

Professor Moriarty

turbbo wrote: »

Quote a non Japanese based company that is saying Diesel is dead - the Japanese car companies never really got into diesel - hence the Diesel is dead rhetoric coming from Toyota. If Diesel is dead so is Petrol - It's carbon emissions that the governments have to curb. Hybrids and the like are just a way for car companies to buy themselves time - they really need to speed up and join Tesla and start making proper EVs with reasonable comfort levels, and reduce the cost because at the moment they are no match for what Diesels offer.

Volvo are phasing out diesel on all new models.

Danzy

InTheShadows wrote: »

People are living in cloud cookoo land if they think Ireland has the infrastructure to deal with charging for all these proposed EV's.

If the will is there it is readily doable.

Given the accelerating growth of electrics across Europe currently it will leave us falling behind.

Can't be good news for new non electric car sales. It's been coming in fairness and it's something that needs to happen.

ELM327

PaddyFagan wrote: »

The article (in the OP) is clearer than others I’ve read. No petrol or diesel new cars from 2030 on, no NCTs for petrol or diesels from 2045.

So no car sold in 2020 will be impacted - unless less you’re getting a 25 year finance deal

And of course, they may yet back down - I suspect some “classic” rule for the NCT will be worked out.

Paddy

40 year old cars do not require NCT on rolling basis anyway, so <2004 cars not affected

GreeBo

jmayo wrote: »

And do you think that marvelous new EV, hybrid, whatever car is magically constructed without any pollution ?
And if it is electric or hybrid then where does all that lithium magically appear from ?

No. How much pollution in manufacturing an ICE car?
Not sure why you keep referring to magic...

jmayo wrote: »

BTW how often do you replace your car ?

When it becomes uneconomical to run it or it no longer suits me needs.

jmayo wrote: »

And yes you can make all the snide rolleyes you like, but if you just replace your fully functioning tablet, and especially your phone, just to get the latest one you are bloody well polluting the planet for no reason.

Indeed. Did anyone advise anyone else to do anything like this? Or are you just strawmanning?

jmayo wrote: »

Likewise with the eejits running out to buy the likes of a new fridge with a bloody tablet.

See above.

jmayo wrote: »

Well it does have around 12kg of lithium.

Of course the mining and refining of that has no pollution effects according to some round here. :rolleyes:

Did anyone here actually say this Worzel?

BarryD2

GreeBo wrote: »

THey have a long, long way to go to reach the fuel costs of Petrol or Diesel.

Does that not depend on taxation policy? Duty and VAT on petrol/ diesel is a handy income for Revenue as it stands. Diminish that and how do you replace? A nice fat duty on swappable batteries or some such mechanism. It will be found. There's no free lunch.

bcklschaps

n97 mini wrote: »

I was listening to the news on the radio today and I don't know how many times I heard the word "tax". Doesn't seem like anything other than a tax a strategy. No gas boilers beyond 2025. Why not develop a biogas strategy? Gas is clean burning after all.

And then there's no mention of agriculture, which is the biggest source of emissions, but is projected to just grow and grow. Almost as if they're aiming for 100% of our emissions to come from agriculture.

"Kite flying" is exactly what this whole report is. Fine Gael spin doctors have been burning the midnight oil since the local/EU elections.

They see an opportunity to tap into the Green wave (if you were cynical, you could say they are trying to steal the Green parties clothes).

I wouldn't worry unecessarily about anything in this report...some very watered down proposals will probably make it into legislation somewhere down the road.

GreeBo

BarryD2 wrote: »

Does that not depend on taxation policy? Duty and VAT on petrol/ diesel is a handy income for Revenue as it stands. Diminish that and how do you replace? A nice fat duty on swappable batteries or some such mechanism. It will be found. There's no free lunch.

There is still a massive gap in costs to run an EV.

Today it will cost you €265 a year to travel 20,000KM+ in electricity costs.
Whats the equivalent diesel cost?

Maintenance costs are far lower on an EV...what consumables are you replacing?

A battery is currently around 7K, lets go mad and say they tax that up to 10K.

You are still miles ahead of where you would be with an ICE.

No one is saying its free, anyone who has looked into it is saying its miles cheaper.

creedp

bcklschaps wrote: »

"Kite flying" is exactly what this whole report is. Fine Gael spin doctors have been burning the midnight oil since the local/EU elections.

They see an opportunity to tap into the Green wave (if you were cynical, you could say they are trying to steal the Green parties clothes).

I wouldn't worry unecessarily about anything in this report...some very watered down proposals will probably make it into legislation somewhere down the road.

Fully agree with 1st 2 sentences. Not so sure about the 3rd. Govt completely hamstrung in trying to deliver their promise to reduce income taxes prior to election .. great excuse to revert to relying on one of the old reliables that has largely been ignored in recent years

Danzy

GreeBo wrote: »

There is still a massive gap in costs to run an EV.

Today it will cost you €265 a year to travel 20,000KM+ in electricity costs.
Whats the equivalent diesel cost?

Maintenance costs are far lower on an EV...what consumables are you replacing?

A battery is currently around 7K, lets go mad and say they tax that up to 10K.

You are still miles ahead of where you would be with an ICE.

No one is saying its free, anyone who has looked into it is saying its miles cheaper.

It is cost and profit margin, the fight to maintain Market share that will ultimately kill the Internal Combustion engine not Govt tax breaks, not corporate concern for the environment.

Diesel and Petrol will fall behind and the cost of improving their efficiency and the potential room to are not justifiable use of capital.

Diesel and Petrol are going to be replaced, same as they pushed out whale oil and timber.

elperello

GreeBo wrote: »

There is still a massive gap in costs to run an EV.

Today it will cost you €265 a year to travel 20,000KM+ in electricity costs.
Whats the equivalent diesel cost?

Maintenance costs are far lower on an EV...what consumables are you replacing?

A battery is currently around 7K, lets go mad and say they tax that up to 10K.

You are still miles ahead of where you would be with an ICE.

No one is saying its free, anyone who has looked into it is saying its miles cheaper.

You are correct.
The equivalent cost for 20,000 km is much higher in a diesel depending on the model chosen.
The thing is though lots of lower income people can gather 5 or 6 thousand euro to buy a diesel and pay the fuel as they go.
People like that haven't a hope of buying an electric car.

Mike9832

GreeBo wrote: »

There is still a massive gap in costs to run an EV.

Today it will cost you €265 a year to travel 20,000KM+ in electricity costs.
Whats the equivalent diesel cost?

Maintenance costs are far lower on an EV...what consumables are you replacing?

A battery is currently around 7K, lets go mad and say they tax that up to 10K.

You are still miles ahead of where you would be with an ICE.

No one is saying its free, anyone who has looked into it is saying its miles cheaper.

What battery is 7k to buy?

GreeBo

elperello wrote: »

You are correct.
The equivalent cost for 20,000 km is much higher in a diesel depending on the model chosen.
The thing is though lots of lower income people can gather 5 or 6 thousand euro to buy a diesel and pay the fuel as they go.
People like that haven't a hope of buying an electric car.

If they are doing high mileage then a loan will actually be cheaper than buying a replacement used car every few years or struggling to keep the same one of the road after its useful life.

The difference between the fuel and paying off a loan can be small enough, especially if you buy a used EV.

GreeBo

Mike9832 wrote: »

What battery is 7k to buy?

I wasn't referring to a specific one, but for example
https://greentecauto.com/repurposed-batteries/nissan-leaf-battery-replacement-program


They will take your old battery and sell you are a refurb for a fraction of the cost of a new one.
They also repurpose the old ones for deep storage (house batteries etc)

It's easy to say "oh batteries will die and then what"
But people have been refurbing car engines, gearboxes and clutches for decades, why wouldnt a whole new industry in battery refurb spring up?

I fully expect that my current car will be my last ICE but, like many others, I can not afford to just jump to EV. Or rather that I can not justify a multi thousand write off and putting myself into massive debt for it.

I am just rolling up to 100k on my car and could easily expect to get another 100-120k. Now that easily allows the EV market to mature, for me, and still be well within any punitive measures timeline but there will be many many others who will not be in this situation.
Punishing people who already have ICE cars, or can not afford to purchase new EVs, is not the answer. Blocking people BUYING new ICE is, let the current fleet fade out without punishing current owners and you will be able to bring this in sooner, with less resistance, and in a less regressive manner to lower income people.

uck51js9zml2yt

shopper2011 wrote: »

What makes you think e-cars are the solution? Bicycles and public transport IMO. There is not enough resources in the world to replace petrol and diesel cars with electric.

That's fine in a city but I live 40 km from work and there is no public transport from where I live.

Deisel is my only option.

is_that_so

bcklschaps wrote: »

"Kite flying" is exactly what this whole report is. Fine Gael spin doctors have been burning the midnight oil since the local/EU elections.

They see an opportunity to tap into the Green wave (if you were cynical, you could say they are trying to steal the Green parties clothes).

I wouldn't worry unecessarily about anything in this report...some very watered down proposals will probably make it into legislation somewhere down the road.

Most of what is in it came from a Joint Oireachtas Committee. There's really nothing too shocking in it unless you're dead against the idea in the first place. Indeed some of it makes a lot of sense even if you wonder how much of it might be achieved.
Who's going to water the proposals down? The only possible issue is how carbon tax will be applied.

is_that_so

shopper2011 wrote: »

What makes you think e-cars are the solution? Bicycles and public transport IMO. There is not enough resources in the world to replace petrol and diesel cars with electric.

Bicycles are not really an option much over about 10km each way and are out of the question outside urban areas. Public transport can solve a lot of urban problems but outside of that it has less scope.

Mike9832

GreeBo wrote: »

I wasn't referring to a specific one, but for example
https://greentecauto.com/repurposed-batteries/nissan-leaf-battery-replacement-program


They will take your old battery and sell you are a refurb for a fraction of the cost of a new one.
They also repurpose the old ones for deep storage (house batteries etc)

It's easy to say "oh batteries will die and then what"
But people have been refurbing car engines, gearboxes and clutches for decades, why wouldnt a whole new industry in battery refurb spring up?

True it will pop up

Markcheese

25 years ago diesels were driven by farmers... (and sales reps), By 10 years ago they were ubiquitous.
Once it becomes the done thing.. Then almost everyone will go electric.. And those "new" electrics will take 10 years or so to completely trickle down,
No one will ban petrol or diesel cars... But cost will convince those who can to change...
And commercials will still be diesels...

GreeBo

Killian Wonderful Steakhouse wrote: »

That's fine in a city but I live 40 km from work and there is no public transport from where I live.

Deisel is my only option.

Well, EV is an option, if you can afford it and for 40KM commute, you can pickup a used leaf for cheap.

John_Rambo

Kristopher Nervous Killer wrote: »

My current diesel is two years old but we have diesels in the family from less than a year old to 15 years old

Did you end up actually buying a brand new diesel car on PCP finance?

GreeBo

Markcheese wrote: »

And commercials will still be diesels...

For now...

GreeBo

McCarthy6251 wrote: »

By the way, only about a million all-electric passenger cars are being exploited all over the world.

How long since they became widely available? (Arguably still not yet)
How long have ICE cars been around?

Mike9832

GreeBo wrote: »

Markcheese wrote: »

And commercials will still be diesels...

For now...

Government should lead by example here

Gardaí, Defence, Emergency services, basically the whole lot should be moving to EV if they are so suitable

Charge points to be installed at all those premises

Think 99% of Government fleet is diesel/petrol

Some clever lot

Markcheese

GreeBo wrote: »

For now...

True,
I reckon a lot will go hybrid, either phev or just Toyota style...( could be better than the pollution control on modern diesels,)
But I can't see heavy commercials not being diesel in some way (well for a long while anyway)

elperello

GreeBo wrote: »

If they are doing high mileage then a loan will actually be cheaper than buying a replacement used car every few years or struggling to keep the same one of the road after its useful life.

The difference between the fuel and paying off a loan can be small enough, especially if you buy a used EV.

I can see your point re. the loan replacing fuel costs but others are suggesting that the "fuel" cost of electrics will rise to replace the lost revenue from petrol and diesel.
I suppose that eventually used EVs will trickle down in the market and suit many peoples needs.

lalababa

Micky 32 wrote: »

lalababa wrote: »

I'm sorry. I just don't know how you can use all 300BHP on a public road. Is there a car computer app. that can measure it?

Yes you can if you want to, quite handy for overtaking, i also like the feel of the acceleration, i love it Also more power especially torque makes the car more relaxing to drive without having to drive fast. When i get into my fathers 100bhp car i find the car more work and tiring to drive on a long drive.

But once again you're missing the point of my post about the Tesla. The point was EV's can be good.

I am not happy with my 109BHP car ATM, I really really have to work hard to pass anything out or beat the crowd to the lights, and then double the work beating them away from the lights. Me right foot is f**ked I tell you, and the poor car is stressed out. I think you have me coverted and I will get a 300BHP next time round. And the next time after that sure I'd want a 400BHP. But seriously in what legal/safe driving situation can you actually use all 300BHP? Could you use them if perhaps you are in too high a gear when overtaking? But that wouldn't work 'coz you'd be well over the speed limit if using all those horses in a high gear.

Danzy

McCarthy6251 wrote: »

By the way, only about a million all-electric passenger cars are being exploited all over the world.

Bhp, the mining giant, predict that half of cars sold globally by 2030 will be Electric, an estimate they revised up from a short while ago.

drunkmonkey

lalababa wrote: »

I am not happy with my 109BHP car ATM, I really really have to work hard to pass anything out or beat the crowd to the lights, and then double the work beating them away from the lights. Me right foot is f**ked I tell you, and the poor car is stressed out. I think you have me coverted and I will get a 300BHP next time round. And the next time after that sure I'd want a 400BHP. But seriously in what legal/safe driving situation can you actually use all 300BHP? Could you use them if perhaps you are in too high a gear when overtaking? But that wouldn't work 'coz you'd be well over the speed limit if using all those horses in a high gear.

I think you should go test drive something with at least 200bhp. 109bhp would scare me to overtake in these days. 300bhp doesn't equal 300mph.

lalababa

lalababa wrote: »

I am not happy with my 109BHP car ATM, I really really have to work hard to pass anything out or beat the crowd to the lights, and then double the work beating them away from the lights. Me right foot is f**ked I tell you, and the poor car is stressed out. I think you have me coverted and I will get a 300BHP next time round. And the next time after that sure I'd want a 400BHP. But seriously in what legal/safe driving situation can you actually use all 300BHP? Could you use them if perhaps you are in too high a gear when overtaking? But that wouldn't work 'coz you'd be well over the speed limit if using all those horses in a high gear.

We have a 215 bhp at home and would see no problem at all with more.
Motorway driving is so much easier when there is still power to be had in 6th gear. Getting up to speed in a quick and safe manner is also not a bother (even if someone, in front, in their 1.4L 109BHP take longer than the merging lane to do so, and enters at 80kmh).

Load the car with 5 adults and all the golf kit in the back and still no drop off in necessary power.

So, while I don't have a 300bhp machine I can easily, safely, and legally use 215 and would not have an issue with more.

uck51js9zml2yt

GreeBo wrote: »

Well, EV is an option, if you can afford it and for 40KM commute, you can pickup a used leaf for cheap.

When the charge points aren't there for a family car, it's not an option.

zilog_jones

adocholiday wrote: »

I have a 60km commute each way to work, I drive a 2010 diesel car and I intend on driving it until it's dead. I was going to upgrade to an electric when I moved but price, lack of charging options where I work, and the fact that the tech is evolving at a rapid pace completely put me off. 31k for the most basic Hyundai Ioniq electric is madness IMO.

The price isn't that bad at all if you were going to buy a new car anyway. You need to look at the TCO - you'd easily save thousands a year on running costs doing that mileage with an EV versus a new diesel or petrol car.

cournioni wrote: »

Transferring pollution from an exhaust pipe doesn't solve the issue. You will still have pollution somewhere and if that is from a power plant it most likely will not be localised anyway! You will have issues on some level. Consumption is the major issue and that won't stop while the population keeps growing.

Large scale power generation is much more efficient than millions of individual ICEs running about the place - an EV powered entirely by coal power (which is not the case in Ireland) is still producing less CO2 than an ICE car.

Treatment of emissions at a large scale is more effective. The big fossil-fuelled power plants are not in densely populated areas. Renewable power generation will be increased anyway. You can even produce your own electricity, and there will be more incentive to do that when they bring in feed-in tariffs (which is part of the plan).

is_that_so

Mike9832 wrote: »

Government should lead by example here

Gardaí, Defence, Emergency services, basically the whole lot should be moving to EV if they are so suitable

Charge points to be installed at all those premises

Think 99% of Government fleet is diesel/petrol

Some clever lot

And when should all of that happen? Next Monday?

BarryD2

GreeBo wrote: »

Well, EV is an option, if you can afford it and for 40KM commute, you can pickup a used leaf for cheap.

I can understand your enthusiasm for EV cars but not your apparent blind belief! Can't help feeling that one would have to be a dealer or have skin in the game in some way to be so gung ho, when the current shortcomings are obvious and future potential policy and taxation arrangements are so opaque?

Maybe that's where we are headed but just can't see it happening in the sort of time scales mooted.

Micky 32

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I think you should go test drive something with at least 200bhp. 109bhp would scare me to overtake in these days. 300bhp doesn't equal 300mph.

I wouldn't bother he/she is just trolling...:p

BarryD2

BarryD2 wrote: »

I can understand your enthusiasm for EV cars but not your apparent blind belief! Can't help feeling that one would have to be a dealer or have skin in the game in some way to be so gung ho, when the current shortcomings are obvious and future potential policy and taxation arrangements are so opaque?

Maybe that's where we are headed but just can't see it happening in the sort of time scales mooted.

Maybe like myself GreeBo is just a happy EV driver. I personally can't see a single shortcoming for driving an EV for a 80 km commute over a diesel if you can can charge the car privately where you normally park overnight. Not only are the energy costs a small fraction but the performance and comfort would probably be better than a same class conventional car. And any current generation EVs can easily do two return 80 km return trips, i.e. don't even necessarily need to be charged every night (in case you are a two car family for example).

Mike9832

is_that_so wrote: »

And when should all of that happen? Next Monday?

Should already be happening

Skatedude

samih wrote: »

Maybe like myself GreeBo is just a happy EV driver. I personally can't see a single shortcoming for driving an EV for a 80 km commute over a diesel if you can can charge the car privately where you normally park overnight. Not only are the energy costs a small fraction but the performance and comfort would probably be better than a same class conventional car. And any current generation EVs can easily do two return 80 km return trips, i.e. don't even necessarily need to be charged every night (in case you are a two car family for example).

And that's the elephant in the room, the majority of people cant charge at home,

drunkmonkey

Skatedude wrote: »

And that's the elephant in the room, the majority of people cant charge at home,

and that's exactly why public/shared transport should be the number one issue when it comes to transport. Instead we've dirty Dublin polluting the whole country and making up laws to fix a Dublin problem and enforcing them on the whole country. The M50 should be turned into an electric train line.

Skatedude

Skatedude wrote: »

And that's the elephant in the room, the majority of people cant charge at home,

This is my only reservation and that's why I explicitly mentioned it. You don't necessarily need to charge at home though but you absolutely do need a parking space where you normally park to have a socket nearby. Even a regular 3 pin socket 8 hours a day is enough for roughly 100 kilometers of driving a day. If you normally drive less than that daily you can share the sockets.

is_that_so

Mike9832 wrote: »

Should already be happening

There's always a timescale but first it needs a plan. 2-5 years I would say.

bonkers67

drunkmonkey wrote: »

and that's exactly why public/shared transport should be the number one issue when it comes to transport. Instead we've dirty Dublin polluting the whole country and making up laws to fix a Dublin problem and enforcing them on the whole country. The M50 should be turned into an electric train line.

The main problem is agriculture. I don’t think there’s too much of that happening in our cities.

jmayo

bonkers67 wrote: »

The main problem is agriculture. I don’t think there’s too much of that happening in our cities.

Yeah the problem is our most successful indigenous Irish owned industry that will never leave to find another low tax compliant cheap labour site and provides much needed jobs and export revenue.

Sure lets fook it up. :rolleyes:

BTW people here have mentioned how one can charge your car overnight at home.

But have they thought how people in apartment blocks and townhouses will manage where they don't have parking spot outside their front door ?

How much will it cost to put charge points in apartment block parking spaces and who would pay for it ?
And they have to be ones that only the parking spot holder would have keyed access to so not your usual bog standard cheap solution.

Agriculture is a huge contributer. Hardly a shocking revelation.

sk8board

Until now the government didn’t have to lead the change, as viable electric cars weren’t available. Easy to side-step the issue.

Now that there are a couple of viable EV options for sale, the greens did well in European elections and people start to see that they could be a viable alternative, then the Government will start to fly kites like this for the next while.
Today’s announcement has no dates and no costings. It’s just a kite.

We are decades away from the national fleet being electric. It’s simply not physically possible to do it sooner, much as we might like it

Mike9832

jmayo wrote: »

Yeah the problem is our most successful indigenous Irish owned industry that will never leave to find another low tax compliant cheap labour site and provides much needed jobs and export revenue.

Sure lets fook it up. :rolleyes:

BTW people here have mentioned how one can charge your car overnight at home.

But have they thought how people in apartment blocks and townhouses will manage where they don't have parking spot outside their front door ?

How much will it cost to put charge points in apartment block parking spaces and who would pay for it ?
And they have to be ones that only the parking spot holder would have keyed access to so not your usual bog standard cheap solution.

How much will it cost the ESB to upgrade the electric network?

You can't charge 950,000 electric cars on current network

That will cost billions upon billions to upgdade

Imagine a big estate or apartment blocks charging 800 electric cars a night at 7kW for 8 hours straight lol

Government talking garbage as usual that will cost the tax payers billions

meeeeh

Or will it be? There are some figures which should make for at least concerning reading, if not outright worry when it comes to electric cars, and one of those came from the company that made the first ever car - Mercedes-Benz. Launching its new EQC all-electric crossover this past week, Mercedes casually mentioned that after 200,000km of daily use, an electric car’s total well-to-wheel emissions will have fallen to 60 per cent of those of a petrol-engined car, or 30 per cent if all of the juice going into the batteries comes from renewable sources.

This is from an article I posted earlier. It would be stupid of governments to accelerate the scrappage of ice cars considering how long it takes to make significant dent in emissions in comparison to ICE cars.