DCM 2019

chris85

Damo 2k9 wrote: »

Thats what I was thinking, yeah it sold out early but not near enough demand for a lottery system IMO.

Could we see the numbers reach 25,000 perhaps? Insurance may be a bottleneck for it to happen, maybe the route cant handle that many?

Could depend a lot on how this year runs. More numbers this year but always much more staggered waves so it may be a stepping stone to get to 25k entrants. Of course they will be keeping a very close eye on bottle necks. I wonder how crowded it will be on the day with extra numbers and the return system ultimately meaning we should see more lining out on the day

glennhysen

Jim Aughney's interview on the Runner Bean podcast was very good. The main points I got from were: -

Each wave will be given a 45 min slot to drop off their bag however they won't stop runners coming early or late but hope that the majority will follow the guidance. From memory the bag drops opens at 7.15am (Wave 1 7.15 to 7.55, Wave 2 7.35 to 8.15, etc...)

The will narrow the starting line from 15m to 13m to slow down the rate runners will start the marathon. They believe this will ease the congestion in the opening few miles. This probably also explains why the have increased the gaps between waves to 20 mins.

In relation to increasing the number, he said they would like to but are very much constrained by the Guards and others.

Singer

glennhysen wrote: »

The will narrow the starting line from 15m to 13m to slow down the rate runners will start the marathon. They believe this will ease the congestion in the opening few miles. This probably also explains why the have increased the gaps between waves to 20 mins.

HardWorker (also on the DCM committee) mentioned on another thread here that they were doing this at the Race Series this year to improve flow control, and that they were happy with the results.

SeeMoreBut

Won't stop the walking pace on the turn onto lesson street.

If everyone starting in the correct position would make smoother but that is utopia

I think they should hold off ballot for the moment and maybe increase the reselling of numbers times

ligerdub

robinph wrote: »

Are the numbers really high enough to warrant setting up a ballot system? It's not like they are 5 times oversubscribed and selling out within half an hour yet.

Possibly putting a couple of thousand places in a ballot system in the spring once they have had a bunch of people cancelling etc, but would seem like overkill for the main entry at this stage.

Would tend to agree with this, but I say that in the knowledge that as of right now we're only dealing with hearsay regarding it going to a ballot system.

I think the Manchester marathon took quite a smart approach this year. They went from 8,500 finishers in 2017 to about 13,500 finishers in 2019. Last year was quoted as being a field of roughly 20,000 entrants (which I assume includes a certain amount of group entries, with the rest being no shows). So it's fairly similar to Dublin in terms of the growth in running numbers as well as being just a little bit below the finisher total for their last edition (I think there were 16,000 finishers from 20,000 numbers in Dublin last year).

Manchester increased their total entrants to 25,000 for 2020 but decided to sell them in waves. They sold an initial batch of 5,000 in the immediately days after the 2019 edition in April. They then waited until September to release another 5,000 entries. Prior to the September date people could avail of declaring an interest to run in the event and would have the opportunity to avail of a guaranteed entry on the release on the 4th of September. The remaining tickets after this point went on general sale.

The long and short of this is that they allowed those who wanted to get in very early to do so, and then allowed a bulk of numbers to be held back for those expressing an interest. After this point they would sell the rest, and have now sold over 17,000 numbers. There was nobody buying in a panic, as they knew they'd have a chance to get a number closer to the day. At roughly 6 months to race day people can make a plan to buy a number if they are motivated to start training.

I expect Dublin will see a large drop-off between those with a number and those who will actual show up. The event sold out 10 months before the actual event date, and while the organisers were correct in forewarning people of how many entries were left available, I suspect many on the fence bit the bullet and bagged a number rather that miss out. I'd say a fair chunk of those will have ended up not following through with the training program, as the distance between buying the number and the start of a training block is just too long. They also seem to be cracking down on number transfers and the sites that usually have them available.

bucketybuck

ligerdub wrote: »

I expect Dublin will see a large drop-off between those with a number and those who will actual show up. The event sold out 10 months before the actual event date, and while the organisers were correct in forewarning people of how many entries were left available, I suspect many on the fence bit the bullet and bagged a number rather that miss out. I'd say a fair chunk of those will have ended up not following through with the training program, as the distance between buying the number and the start of a training block is just too long. They also seem to be cracking down on number transfers and the sites that usually have them available.

You don't seem to be taking into account the official buyback and reselling of tickets just a few months ago?

ligerdub

bucketybuck wrote: »

You don't seem to be taking into account the official buyback and reselling of tickets just a few months ago?

I did consider that, but that didn't represent a big percentage of the total number of entrants. It could be reasonably argued that people had a chance to opt-out then so fair enough I suppose.

rovers_runner

ligerdub wrote: »

Would tend to agree with this, but I say that in the knowledge that as of right now we're only dealing with hearsay regarding it going to a ballot system.

I think the Manchester marathon took quite a smart approach this year. They went from 8,500 finishers in 2017 to about 13,500 finishers in 2019. Last year was quoted as being a field of roughly 20,000 entrants (which I assume includes a certain amount of group entries, with the rest being no shows). So it's fairly similar to Dublin in terms of the growth in running numbers as well as being just a little bit below the finisher total for their last edition (I think there were 16,000 finishers from 20,000 numbers in Dublin last year).

Manchester increased their total entrants to 25,000 for 2020 but decided to sell them in waves. They sold an initial batch of 5,000 in the immediately days after the 2019 edition in April. They then waited until September to release another 5,000 entries. Prior to the September date people could avail of declaring an interest to run in the event and would have the opportunity to avail of a guaranteed entry on the release on the 4th of September. The remaining tickets after this point went on general sale.

The long and short of this is that they allowed those who wanted to get in very early to do so, and then allowed a bulk of numbers to be held back for those expressing an interest. After this point they would sell the rest, and have now sold over 17,000 numbers. There was nobody buying in a panic, as they knew they'd have a chance to get a number closer to the day. At roughly 6 months to race day people can make a plan to buy a number if they are motivated to start training.

I expect Dublin will see a large drop-off between those with a number and those who will actual show up. The event sold out 10 months before the actual event date, and while the organisers were correct in forewarning people of how many entries were left available, I suspect many on the fence bit the bullet and bagged a number rather that miss out. I'd say a fair chunk of those will have ended up not following through with the training program, as the distance between buying the number and the start of a training block is just too long. They also seem to be cracking down on number transfers and the sites that usually have them available.

Some good points here.
I expect finish numbers to be around 18000 max, main reason as you've said is the entry time far too long a lead in.
I've taken early bird entries in the past and not done them as plans changed or never started the training block in time.

This year I was mad to get a last min entry all of a sudden which was close enough to the time you needed to get things in order prep wise.
May be best if they did waves of 7000 in April, May and June 2020.

ooter

wasn't sure whether to start a new discussion or not, can anyone recommend somewhere to get a decent bit of grub (pub/restaurant) after the race?
early afternoon, around 1pm.
do any restaurants open early to cater for finishers?

ittakestwo

ooter wrote: »

wasn't sure whether to start a new discussion or not, can anyone recommend somewhere to get a decent bit of grub (pub/restaurant) after the race?
early afternoon, around 1pm.
do any restaurants open early to cater for finishers?

Don't plan and go anywhere to near the finish. Went to Mcgrattens of Merrion square last year and it got swamped after. This year will be heading up towards Camden street direction as wont be as busy with marathon runners. Bleeding horse do pub food.

mathie

Does anyone know which pacers are in which waves?

rovers_runner

mathie wrote: »

Does anyone know which pacers are in which
waves?

https://twitter.com/dublinmarathon/status/1182597312339677185

justdoit

I just wanted to take a minute to wish everyone taking part on Sunday the very best of luck. Special good wishes to first timers and those chasing PB's. Easier said than done, but the hard work is done now, so try to enjoy the day and soak it up- be sure to look up every now and then, as opposed to looking down at your Garmin all day! It's probably going to hurt at times- if it didn't, everyone could do it, but your body WILL get you round and is stronger than your mind will try to tell you down the stretch.

I'm not running this year, and am already insanely jealous of those of you that are- it is an epic event, with support unrivalled at almost any event I've done. I still get tingles when I think of the crowds in Castleknock when you exit Phoenix Park.

Also, thanks to all the organisers, sponsors, pacers, first aiders, supporters and everybody else who contributes to give Dublin an event that we can all be really proud of.

Singer

Ok, it's time for the prediction table

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|

Kellygirl

Here goes :eek:

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|

Damo 2k9

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|

Cartman78

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|

boydkev

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|

diego_b

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|


Running with my wife this year on her marathon debut.

G1raff3

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|

jaggiebunnet

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|

passinginterest

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|

Kissy Lips

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|Kissy Lips|3:04:08|3:00:00|

djemba djemba

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|djemba djemba|2.47.22|2.44.59|

Slow_Runner

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|djemba djemba|2.47.22|2.44.59|
|slow_runner|3.42.30|3.29.59|

The Black Oil

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|djemba djemba|2.47.22|2.44.59|
|slow_runner|3.43.30|3.29.59|
|The Black Oil|3:57:25|3:45:30|
||||

Kander

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|djemba djemba|2.47.22|2.44.59|
|slow_runner|3.43.30|3.29.59|
|The Black Oil|3:57:25|3:45:30|
|Kander|3:18:40|2:59:59|


Maybe if I write it down it will increase my chances

Hedgehoggy

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|djemba djemba|2.47.22|2.44.59|
|slow_runner|3.43.30|3.29.59|
|The Black Oil|3:57:25|3:45:30|
|Kander|3:18:40|2:59:59|
|Hedgehoggy|3:48:49|3:29:59|


3.30 is the A goal - would be happy with anything under 3.35
Early weather predictions are looking good!

Cartman78

Posted this over in the Mentored Novices Thread so might as well stick it here too:

From met.ie -

"BANK HOLIDAY WEEKEND: An uncertain outlook at this stage. At the moment however, indications point towards cool bright and calm weather, but very cold after dark with widespread frost."

Was at physio last night for a rub down and chat - got the calves loosened out a bit and she did some work on my neck/shoulder too which has been sore lately for no apparent reason.

Not in bad shape all things considered - definitely better than my last marathon in 2012. I am possibly slightly undercooked in terms of mileage but would rather that than being in my usual state of being totally over-trained.

Quietly confident now - just want Sunday to come asap

Kissy Lips

Bib No.| Username | PB | Predicted Time | Actual Time
|Singer|3:09:53|2:59:59|
|KellyGirl|4:20:05|3:59:53|
|Damo2k9|3:51:57|3:29:59|
|Cartman78|3:26:35|3:20:00|
|Boydkev|3:18:52|3:14:59|
|diego_b|3:43:41|5:30:00|
|G1raff3|3:30:23|3:24:59|
|jaggiebunnet|3:29:30|3:35:00|
|Passinginterest|4:00:48|3:59:30|
|djemba djemba|2.47.22|2.44.59|
|slow_runner|3.43.30|3.29.59|
|The Black Oil|3:57:25|3:45:30|
|Kander|3:18:40|2:59:59|
|Hedgehoggy|3:48:49|3:29:59|
|Kissy Lips|3:04:08|3:00:00|



second crack at adding my name. :pac: