Donald Trump Presidency discussion Thread VI

amandstu

pixelburp wrote: »

Fox & Friends, alongside K. Conway, were also leading the charge this morning trying to pin all the recession talk on the Mainstream Media & Liberal conspiracy. To quote some of this mentality:



The narrative is being actively formed, just in time for the 2020 campaign: IF there is a (global) recession, it'll not be Trump's fault or any (in)action he took, rather it'll be those US-hating Liberals who just don't want American to be Great Again.

And the public would buy that?(Wouldn't the simple fact of a recession or a slowdown ,if it happened trump any blame game? This is a weird ploy)

Imo Trump's (and hangers on's) game is to push the probably inevitable recession till after the election. Seems obvious ,if crude)

rossie1977

MadYaker wrote: »

That’s all well and good but if a recession actually happens he can’t really blame the media or the liberals. If he’s been taking credit for the economy he’ll have to own a recession as well, even his supporters wouldn’t swallow that one.

No it will be blamed on Democrats likely Obama and Hillarys past policies and House/Senate Dems not endorsing his policies.

It's only 8 months said Trump live on national TV across the US said he would take blame for any government shut-down. By the end Republicans and Trump were all blaming the Democrats and the media were asking 'Who is really to blame'

TomOnBoard

Gbear wrote: »

The base will. They will literally swallow any absolute tripe so long as they see him as furthering what has now become primarily a white identity-based platform.

What he won't have is small c working and middle class conservatives, who are happy to vote in a racist so long as it doesn't hurt their bottom lines.

In order to get a perspective on 'the base', I think this article from Rollin Stone is worth a read:

It's main point is that, the base doesn't really think anything was ever done for them before Trump came along, and they're happy enough to keep supporting him, as there's no-one else who cares about them. So they don't care about the lies, the pussy grabbing, the attacks on the Squad and all that. To them, Trump is a rock-star TV personality who says it like he sees it, while the established Washington political elites couldn't care less about them...

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/taibbi-trump-2020-be-very-afraid-872299/

amandstu

I am hearing that (admittedly at this early stage) Trump is favourite to win re-election.

Since he lost the overall vote last time and only scraped through in the rust belt States which it seems he is now losing in ,how is he a favourite?

StringerBell

MadYaker wrote: »

That’s all well and good but if a recession actually happens he can’t really blame the media or the liberals. If he’s been taking credit for the economy he’ll have to own a recession as well, even his supporters wouldn’t swallow that one.

Wouldn't be so sure if that, his base have and will swallow anything, or beyond that simply don't care what he does cause he's "their guy"

He will however lose enough independents, as he already is, to lose the election you would hope. Long way to go however.

StringerBell

amandstu wrote: »

I am hearing that (admittedly at this early stage) Trump is favourite to win re-election.

Since he lost the overall vote last time and only scraped through in the rust belt States which it seems he is now losing in ,how is he a favourite?

He's an incumbent, quite simply.

The incumbent almost always wins.

The polling wouldn't be great for him, but until there is a direct challenger (Dem nominee) and you get into the state by state numbers it doesn't really matter that much right now.

Professor Moriarty

amandstu wrote: »

I am hearing that (admittedly at this early stage) Trump is favourite to win re-election.

Since he lost the overall vote last time and only scraped through in the rust belt States which it seems he is now losing in ,how is he a favourite?

Bookies have him at 11/10 which means they think he has about a 50% chance of being reelected.

rossie1977

amandstu wrote: »

I am hearing that (admittedly at this early stage) Trump is favourite to win re-election.

Since he lost the overall vote last time and only scraped through in the rust belt States which it seems he is now losing in ,how is he a favourite?

Right now he isn't. Head to head matchups yes but the Dem candidate hasn't even had first primary

26000 Elephants

StringerBell wrote: »

Wouldn't be so sure if that, his base have and will swallow anything,

Don't stress too much about Trump's "base" - it amounts to no more than 10% of Republican voters. The clodhoppers who scream and shout at his "events" won't win him anything: it's traditional Republican voters who got him in. And I'm pretty sure there is a sufficiently sizable cohort of them who will not support him next time out, having been humiliated by his terrible performance as President. As you say, he said scraped by last time, a small swing away will see him out of office and straight into the hands of the Feds.

Remember, these people are conservative in outlook, and Trump is anything but. They will turn and roast him with a vengeful wrath that will surprise God himself!

TomOnBoard

26000 Elephants wrote: »

Don't stress too much about Trump's "base" - it amounts to no more than 10% of Republican voters. The clodhoppers who scream and shout at his "events" won't win him anything: it's traditional Republican voters who got him in. And I'm pretty sure there is a sufficiently sizable cohort of them who will not support him next time out, having been humiliated by his terrible performance as President. As you say, he said scraped by last time, a small swing away will see him out of office and straight into the hands of the Feds.

Remember, these people are conservative in outlook, and Trump is anything but. They will turn and roast him with a vengeful wrath that will surprise God himself!

Trump's Base is significantly higher than 10% of Republicans. The last figures I saw would put his Base at between 12% and 20% of all Americans, so probably closer to 30+% of Republicans alone.

26000 Elephants

Sorry, that should have said "American voters" not just republicans!

PropJoe10

26000 Elephants wrote: »

Don't stress too much about Trump's "base" - it amounts to no more than 10% of Republican voters. The clodhoppers who scream and shout at his "events" won't win him anything: it's traditional Republican voters who got him in. And I'm pretty sure there is a sufficiently sizable cohort of them who will not support him next time out, having been humiliated by his terrible performance as President. As you say, he said scraped by last time, a small swing away will see him out of office and straight into the hands of the Feds.

Remember, these people are conservative in outlook, and Trump is anything but. They will turn and roast him with a vengeful wrath that will surprise God himself!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere that upwards of 75% of Republican voters back him and think he's doing a great job.

Quin_Dub

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere that upwards of 75% of Republican voters back him and think he's doing a great job.

Actually, it was over 90% support among GOP voters

PropJoe10

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Actually, it was over 90% support among GOP voters

Jesus. That is incredible.

Water John

It's the small percent in the middle that decide all elections.

26000 Elephants

Water John wrote: »

It's the small percent in the middle that decide all elections.

An interesting study on these 'margins' - "The Conflicted Trump supporters"

Navigator research - Conflicted about Trump (PDF download, not huge)

I think the 90% Trump support is out of date by now, and was largely a phenomenon of "Anybody But Clinton". Without the Hillary boogeyman and with full knowledge of the mans incompetence, I suspect that figure will be a lot lower now.

spacecoyote

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Actually, it was over 90% support among GOP voters

If I remember correctly it's a slightly skewed number because the number of registered Republicans has actually dropped.

So whilst his approval amongst "Republicans" is very high, its amongst an ever shrinking pool

Water John

The Factory of Lies, on RTE 1 now.

aloyisious

Anthony Scaramucci on CNN now talking to Anderson Cooper likening Trump Admin running of the US making it like a banana republic and saying he and other republicans are working to correct the situation. It seems Don is calling Scaramucci a nutjob. If it's not a GOP ploy to get disenchanted GOP voters back on side, then there is something wrong [in Don's eyes] within the GOP. Looking at his tweets about the Fox poll on his voting popularity and yesterday's reiteration of his New Hampshire voter fraud claims from 2016, it's plain he's rattled by his drop in popularity in the polls. CNN ran a news report excerpt in which he was talking to reporters about background checks on fire-arms applicants and large magazines [clips] before segueing into his voter fraud allegations. One reporter actually asked him what his voter fraud allegations had to do with background checks on fire-arm applicants.

amandstu

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1163613255153197056

Are they the rustbelt States? Maybe they got the memo...

Seems like Wisconsin, Michigan are ....https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-21/rust-belt-states-that-powered-trump-win-now-spurning-republicans

(Is it wrong to dream?)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-21/rust-belt-states-that-powered-trump-win-now-spurning-republicans

Seems like Winsconsin and Michigan are ,anyway

duploelabs

aloyisious wrote: »

Anthony Scaramucci on CNN now talking to Anderson Cooper likening Trump Admin running of the US making it like a banana republic and saying he and other republicans are working to correct the situation. It seems Don is calling Scaramucci a nutjob. If it's not a GOP ploy to get disenchanted GOP voters back on side, then there is something wrong [in Don's eyes] within the GOP. Looking at his tweets about the Fox poll on his voting popularity and yesterday's reiteration of his New Hampshire voter fraud claims from 2016, it's plain he's rattled by his drop in popularity in the polls. CNN ran a news report excerpt in which he was talking to reporters about background checks on fire-arms applicants and large magazines [clips] before segueing into his voter fraud allegations. One reporter actually asked him what his voter fraud allegations had to do with background checks on fire-arm applicants.

The Mooch is as unreliable as they come, as much as I loath to agree with the Donald, but then again even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day

everlast75

For anyone interested, a very good podcast "Talking Feds" latest episode. The host had a number of prominent anti-Trump Republicans on and the discussions centred around how much pro-Trump people can stomach in order to get certain things done.

I'm a big fan of this pod in general.

Sonics2k

Just to say it, as I'm sure people know I'm no fan of Trump.

But I wouldn't trust any pills. Before his election the polls gave Clinton like 90% chance of winning and Trump was a joke. Sane people tend to forget just how hardcore his base is, as well as the size of it. People will also vote for him simply due to the usual American propeganda about how evil and socialist the Dems are.

Bernie is realistically the best candidate, but the DNC won't let him run and the party is too fractured.

Gbear

Sonics2k wrote: »

Just to say it, as I'm sure people know I'm no fan of Trump.

But I wouldn't trust any pills. Before his election the polls gave Clinton like 90% chance of winning and Trump was a joke. Sane people tend to forget just how hardcore his base is, as well as the size of it. People will also vote for him simply due to the usual American propeganda about how evil and socialist the Dems are.

Bernie is realistically the best candidate, but the DNC won't let him run and the party is too fractured.

The 538 poll was about 66/33 in favour of Clinton, so Trump winning wasn't really that unlikely, especially given that it was down to a margin of about 0.05% of the electorate, spread across a few states.

All we really have to go on are probabilities. Maths hasn't stopped working just because Trump was elected.

rossie1977

The polls were right nationwide. It was state polls in certain areas like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin etc that were wrong

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Jesus. That is incredible.

Not really. Bush Jr had constant 90+ often 95% approval from Republicans until about late 2006. Even as the country was losing hundreds of thousands of jobs monthly his approval stayed in 70% range among Republicans.

Quin_Dub

aloyisious wrote: »

Anthony Scaramucci on CNN now talking to Anderson Cooper likening Trump Admin running of the US making it like a banana republic and saying he and other republicans are working to correct the situation. It seems Don is calling Scaramucci a nutjob. If it's not a GOP ploy to get disenchanted GOP voters back on side, then there is something wrong [in Don's eyes] within the GOP. Looking at his tweets about the Fox poll on his voting popularity and yesterday's reiteration of his New Hampshire voter fraud claims from 2016, it's plain he's rattled by his drop in popularity in the polls. CNN ran a news report excerpt in which he was talking to reporters about background checks on fire-arms applicants and large magazines [clips] before segueing into his voter fraud allegations. One reporter actually asked him what his voter fraud allegations had to do with background checks on fire-arm applicants.

Just on that , surprise surprise , he's backing off on Gun Control despite claiming that he would "do something about it" after El Paso and Dayton.

Trump told reporters this weekend he will look "very strongly" at ideas from both Democrats and Republicans but said to remember that "we already have a lot of background checks." Those remarks followed Trump's Aug. 7 claim that "we can bring up background checks like we’ve never had before."

Expect him to continue to claim that there are already background checks. Another example of him running scared from doing anything that might impact his "base".

Quote from here.

amandstu

Is the outcome of next election in 2020 likely to revolve around the results in the Rustbelt States ?

Or does history not repeat itself and will the battle lines be drawn elsewhere?

Which States are definitely no contest and can the ones in real play be predicted at this early stage?

Was Scaramucci correct to say last night that some of Trump's lines are now tired and ineffective? (can't quite remember what he meant )

Is he likely to appeal to the Republicans in his assessment of the "President" or is he just a flash in the pan soon to be forgotten?

I think he may have been promoting the idea of a challenger to Trump from the Republican ranks (again if memory serves)

The Nal

amandstu wrote: »

Was Scaramucci correct to say last night that some of Trump's lines are now tired and ineffective? (can't quite remember what he meant )

Maybe yeah but once the Dem nomination is sorted they'll come up with a new stupid one that'll work.

amandstu

spacecoyote wrote: »

If I remember correctly it's a slightly skewed number because the number of registered Republicans has actually dropped.

So whilst his approval amongst "Republicans" is very high, its amongst an ever shrinking pool

Is it shrinking because Independents are growing in numbers (or non voters) ?

Is the pool of registered Dems also shrinking,or holding (or increasing)?

Any evidence on levels of motivation(on either of the 3* sides) at this early stage?

*if Independents are a "side"

aloyisious

amandstu wrote: »

Was Scaramucci correct to say last night that some of Trump's lines are now tired and ineffective? (can't quite remember what he meant )

Maybe if one was to take it he meant Don and gun control, he'd be correct. Don is so repetitive in his soundbites though that Scaramucci could mean most of them. Which [on the topic of gun control] reminds me, there are ways around gun control laws that the savvy have used to get weapons. One of the mass murder shooters used the internet to scope out auto-fire weapons, then bought the parts online from different dealers to make one. The parts were not from the original fire-arm manufacturer but copies of the original parts which the shooter then fine-tooled to his desired specs.