Donald Trump Presidency discussion Thread VI

pixelburp

looksee wrote: »

Well good for you. Lets hope you don't get struck down by some debilitating illness. I am so glad I live in a 'socialist' country.

As I will always say to people, and similar to how there being no atheists in foxholes, never in history has any revolution sought to found a libertarian utopia.

"I got yours, f*ck you" lasts precisely up until the first bump in the road.

nw5iytvs0lf1uz

looksee wrote: »

Well good for you. Lets hope you don't get struck down by some debilitating illness. I am so glad I live in a 'socialist' country.

i am not sure what your post means. can you elaborate further?

nw5iytvs0lf1uz

pixelburp wrote: »

No, the numbers do not speak for themselves. The DOW is not the economy. You realise the companies that have benefited from Trump's tax bill ARE those giant tech companies?

Wages are stagnant, and way behind inflation. Those stats speak for themselves and more about the economy than market speculators.

can you back this up with a source

Wages are stagnant, and way behind inflation

pixelburp

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

can you back this up with a source

Wages are stagnant, and way behind inflation

I already posted details on it in a previous post; the NY Times went into some depth, one year later after the bill, to find out how "the economy" was doing. In fact growth is less than the previous year.

pixelburp wrote: »

I didn't think it needed to be said, but the DOW does NOT equal the economy, they're just numbers and arguing over them as some proof of Trumps success is asinine. They have absolutely not reflection on the real world, bar in the most abstract, glib terms.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/1point5-trillion-us-tax-cut-has-no-major-impact-on-business-spending-plans-survey.html

"The National Association of Business Economics’ (NABE) quarterly business conditions poll published on Monday found that while some companies reported accelerating investments because of lower corporate taxes, 84 percent of respondents said they had not changed plans. That compares to 81 percent in the previous survey published in October."


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.html

This is a fairly decent deep-dive into the numbers since the Tax Bill. The conveniently maligned big tech companies account for a large amount of the growth (Google, Facebook, Amazon etc) though this part stands out to me:

"Nearly a year after the cuts were signed into law, wage growth has yet to pick up when accounting for inflation. In September, the Labor Department reported that inflation-adjusted wages had risen 0.5 percent from the year before. That’s a slower rate of growth than the economy itself experienced in September 2017, when it was 0.6 percent."

Which reads to me like more people are sinking closer to the poverty line. Some boom. How's the Rust Belt doing I wonder, those poor folk suffering in ex-coal towns that Trump promised to save. Maybe that's Amazon's ultimately plan, move into their legal-slavery warehouses into these desperate states and clean up.

Trump's Tax Cut was aimed at corporations, and as is usual with the "Trickle Down" theory, those breaks did not get passed to the consumer, or to the workers; in 2019, does it still come as a surprise to people that if you give corporations lots more money, their first instinct is NOT to give that windfall to the workers?

frag420

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

before trump wins election

Dow: 17,888.28,
S&P 500: 2,085.18,
Nasdaq: 5,046.37,

today
dow 27,222
nasdaq 8207
S&P 500 2995

You do the math.

Assume that I am not great at math, could you explain the above in simple terms for me please? I notice the bottom set of numbers are larger than the top set of numbers, can you explain how this happened, what it means etc etc etc?

nw5iytvs0lf1uz

i read the attached last month and find it very interesting as should many here.

After revising its data for past periods, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment grew by 5.1 million jobs in President Trump’s first full two years in office, a 3.5% increase. Private sector payrolls grew by 4.9 million, a 4.0% increase.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2019/02/01/manufacturers-added-6-times-more-jobs-under-trump-than-under-obamas-last-2-years/#2a8ad8825635

i love the quote by obama, manufacturing jobs just aint coming back.

BonnieSituation

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

before trump wins election

Dow: 17,888.28,
S&P 500: 2,085.18,
Nasdaq: 5,046.37,

today
dow 27,222
nasdaq 8207
S&P 500 2995

You do the math.

And when we do the maths what do we take from that?

Do you know what those numbers even represent?

ct5amr2ig1nfhp

On the jobs front. I was reading news this morning that the big US carriers (AA, DL, UA etc) are meeting with Trump to 'beg' him to revisit the granting of a licence to Norwegian and to penalize the Middle Eastern carriers like Qatar and Etihad. They are claiming that US jobs have been lost and further jobs are at risk. For decades, US carriers have been moving entire departments overseas to the likes of India, long before these other carriers posed a threat.
Their CEOs have failed to reduce overheads or trim the fat in their business and are now pointing the finger at Obama and other carriers. Laughable that they stand up and claim to be keeping jobs in the US, all the while in the background continuing to transfer entire departments overseas.

nw5iytvs0lf1uz

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And when we do the maths what do we take from that?

Do you know what those numbers even represent?

the markets are very complicated and as another poster said to me it would not be right to try and explain here.

if you are really interested i suggest you buy and read The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Skip the movie as it does not do a very complicated book justice.

Water John

The Big Short, is the ultimate example of Groupthink. Trump's followers fall into the same category.

nw5iytvs0lf1uz

Water John wrote: »

The Big Short, is the ultimate example of Groupthink. Trump's followers fall into the same category.

I think we can all be guilty of Groupthink. Do you think this forum falls into that category?

duploelabs

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

the numbers speak for themselves.
trumps wins election and it begins and has still not finished.


The only big business who want him gone now are social media giants but that is not a bad thing. Someone has to take on these monopolies.

So under that assumption correlation equals causality.
Can you also explain the trend of said markets prior to the inauguration?

DrumSteve

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

I think we can all be guilty of Groupthink. Do you think this forum falls into that category?

Not necessarily.

I think the issue is, at least from my perspective anyway, is that most trump supporters in here are fairly one note when it comes to him. They will mention the stock markets etc and pick arbitrary dates to support it; look that's fine if that's their schtick.

But they mostly, if not always fail to address him as a person. You said he was a brilliant person bar the odd slip of the tongue... but it's not just the odd slip, is it? He is by all accounts an abysmal human being, who, at the moment is saying as much racist stuff as he can currently get away with to distract from all the other stuff he's getting up to and has gotten up to (*cough* Epstein *cough*).

I think it would be a lot easier to speak with trump supporters if they weren't so blind to his (many) failings.

26000 Elephants

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

i love the quote by obama, manufacturing jobs just aint coming back.

He meant well paying, medium skilled jobs like those in the auto industry.

What Trump is creating are low paid, low skilled jobs with little to no security.

Midlife

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

i read the attached last month and find it very interesting as should many here.

After revising its data for past periods, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment grew by 5.1 million jobs in President Trump’s first full two years in office, a 3.5% increase. Private sector payrolls grew by 4.9 million, a 4.0% increase.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2019/02/01/manufacturers-added-6-times-more-jobs-under-trump-than-under-obamas-last-2-years/#2a8ad8825635

i love the quote by obama, manufacturing jobs just aint coming back.

Without knocking the overall article or your point, I think you're incorrect to assume this this means that traditional jobs have come back to the midwest. I think that's what people said wasn't coming back, and it afaik hasn't.

Also, it doesn't necessarily mean much for Trump when it comes to election time. People in the rust belt voted for change again because the current system saw many working two or three jobs for crappy pay and no real economic freedom.

And that's the thing about this, it doesn't matter what we feel or can argue on boards. The Obama to Trump midwest voters will probably swing it and unless they see a real difference in their wages and lifestyles, they won't buy it.

Additionally, in the eyes of those people, the Trump U-turn on wall street is a massive stick to beat him with come election time. I'd be reallly curious to see if those voters have felt any real change. I'm not saying they haven't but banging on about the stockmarket highs and jobs added on the west coast won't do much for them.

Christy42

Midlife wrote: »

Without knocking the overall article or your point, I think you're incorrect to assume this this means that traditional jobs have come back to the midwest. I think that's what people said wasn't coming back, and it afaik hasn't.

Also, it doesn't necessarily mean much for Trump when it comes to election time. People in the rust belt voted for change again because the current system saw many working two or three jobs for crappy pay and no real economic freedom.

And that's the thing about this, it doesn't matter what we feel or can argue on boards. The Obama to Trump midwest voters will probably swing it and unless they see a real difference in their wages and lifestyles, they won't buy it.

Additionally, in the eyes of those people, the Trump U-turn on wall street is a massive stick to beat him with come election time. I'd be reallly curious to see if those voters have felt any real change. I'm not saying they haven't but banging on about the stockmarket highs and jobs added on the west coast won't do much for them.

It isn't about change. It is perceived change. So what if nothing changes for them. Things were only bad because that is what they were told. Trump went on and on about 50% unemployment rates. It was a lie but he talked about it.

Is he beating 50%? Yes. Easily. Therefore he will argue he has been successful and people will vote for him. It was jot the most complicated strategy but it seems to be effective.

FrostyJack

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote:

if you are really interested i suggest you buy and read The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Did you read his follow up book about how Trump has destroyed whole government departments with ineptitude and corruption?

FartyBlartFast

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

Cody montana wrote: »

Why didn’t you say what it was in 2016?

18259 when trump was elected president
within 3 years trump has overseen a near 150% growth.

i have attached a link that should finish debate
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/09/us-markets.html

As someone else pointed out, that is not 150% growth. 18,259 on his inauguration day vs 27,277 today is 54.86% growth.

Compared to Obama, who during his 8 years saw the Dow rise 125%, Trump is performing quite well but still has catching up to do. And that is before pointing out that Obama took over the economy when it was worse than it had been for 80 years, which saw it drop as low as 6,550 within six weeks of his assuming office (e.g. Something he had no control over). From that, Obama saw 178% growth which Trump is very far off the pace of.

Still, Trump has not been around for 8 years, only 2.5, so it would be fairer to compare his with Obama up until July 19, 2011.

Trump Jan 20 2017 - July 19, 2019 = 54.86% growth.
Obama Jan 20 2009 - July 19 2011 = 52.02%

Trumps is slightly ahead though they are nearly identical, despite Obama having the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression just kicking into full gear as soon as he took office, left to him by the republican party. Trump has not turned any economy around, that is what Obama did, Trump deserves credit for not messing it up, but the reality is that he has just carried on on the economy Obama built, having been left a very strong economy by the democrats.

For reference on the economies they were elft with, the Dow shrunk by 5,000 points (38%) in 5he year before Obama took office. In the year before Trump took office, it went up by 2,500 (13.8%). Had it continued at exactly that pace from Jan 2017 to now, the dow would be at around... 27,500 which is about bang on where it is now (27,300 as I write this).

Trumps not doing bad in that front, but he's definitely not caused any big turn around at all.

marno21

FartyBlartFast wrote: »

As someone else pointed out, that is not 150% growth. 18,259 on his inauguration day vs 27,277 today is 54.86% growth.

Compared to Obama, who during his 8 years saw the Dow rise 126% under his 8 years, Trump has.catching up to do. And that s
isbefore pointing out that Obama took over the economy when it was worse than it had been for 80 years, which saw it drop as low as 6,550 within six weeks of his assuming office (e.g. Something he had no control over). From that, Obama saw 178% growth which Trump is very far off the pace of.

Still, Trump has not been around for 8 years, only 2.5, so it would be fairer to compare his with Obama up until July 19, 2011. Unfortunately, Obama still performed much better there.

Trump Jan 20 2017 - July 19, 2019 = 54.86% growth.
Obama Jan 20 2009 - July 19 2011 =

They are nearly identical, despite Obama having the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression just kicking into full gear as soon as he took office, left to him by the republican party. Trump has not turned any economy around, that is what Obama did, Trump deserves credit for not messing it up, but the reality is that he has just carried on on the economy Obama built

Fair play to you for typing all that out but the people who need to listen to it won't listen to it and the rest already know it.

It's always the same simplistic rubbish from the Trump crowd. You'd swear that both Trump and Obama both had magic wands and they are trying to argue that Trump is more skilled at using his wand than Obama.

Completely ignoring any externalises involved.

It's even worse when the same tripe is used to deflect from racism.

Stop moaning ffs

The most racist week of the trump presidency and we still have people posting stock market nonsense to prove his worth.

Rigolo is notably absent today. Even he’s not this dunmb and knows this will blow over and we’ll move to the next outrage.

hill16bhoy

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The most racist week of the trump presidency and we still have people posting stock market nonsense to prove his worth.

Rigolo is notably absent today. Even he’s not this dunmb and knows this will blow over and we’ll move to the next outrage.

Don't forget them protecting a paedophile

Midlife

Christy42 wrote: »

It isn't about change. It is perceived change. So what if nothing changes for them. Things were only bad because that is what they were told. Trump went on and on about 50% unemployment rates. It was a lie but he talked about it.

Is he beating 50%? Yes. Easily. Therefore he will argue he has been successful and people will vote for him. It was jot the most complicated strategy but it seems to be effective.

That's quite disrespectful to about 75 million people.

It's much easier for both sides to see the other as stupid and blind to reality. The truth is that you should walk in their shoes a bit.

This is a pretty interesting old lecture by Elizabeth Warren

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

Forget party affiliation and current political sides but she statistically lays out how that in the last couple of decades, the traditional middle class have seen the cost of essentials (home, childcare, healthcare) skyrocket while their wages stagnate.

So they have no holidays, disposable income, safety net, helath provisions and are working weekend jobs for the privalege.

I actually dispise Trump. I think he's a really horrific human but if i was living in the constant stress of trying to survivie with my family from paycheck to paycheck and he said, he'd fix it? And it was a binary choice between him a continued policy of globalisation that had utterly failed me and my family?

Michael Moore called it right in that a lot of people voted for Trump as a hand grenade. Roll it into Washington and watch it go off.

You shouldn't assume that they're all stupid and gullible.

FartyBlartFast

marno21 wrote: »

FartyBlartFast wrote: »

As someone else pointed out, that is not 150% growth. 18,259 on his inauguration day vs 27,277 today is 54.86% growth.

Compared to Obama, who during his 8 years saw the Dow rise 126% under his 8 years, Trump has.catching up to do. And that s
isbefore pointing out that Obama took over the economy when it was worse than it had been for 80 years, which saw it drop as low as 6,550 within six weeks of his assuming office (e.g. Something he had no control over). From that, Obama saw 178% growth which Trump is very far off the pace of.

Still, Trump has not been around for 8 years, only 2.5, so it would be fairer to compare his with Obama up until July 19, 2011. Unfortunately, Obama still performed much better there.

Trump Jan 20 2017 - July 19, 2019 = 54.86% growth.
Obama Jan 20 2009 - July 19 2011 =

They are nearly identical, despite Obama having the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression just kicking into full gear as soon as he took office, left to him by the republican party. Trump has not turned any economy around, that is what Obama did, Trump deserves credit for not messing it up, but the reality is that he has just carried on on the economy Obama built

Fair play to you for typing all that out but the people who need to listen to it won't listen to it and the rest already know it.

It's always the same simplistic rubbish from the Trump crowd. You'd swear that both Trump and Obama both had magic wands and they are trying to argue that Trump is more skilled at using his wand than Obama.

Completely ignoring any externalises involved.

It's even worse when the same tripe is used to deflect from racism.

Fecking thumb hit the submit reply button before I was done! It's finished now.

I do wonder though how many people passively hear that type of propaganda and buy it eventually. A bit like how unemoyment under Trump - by the measure he and his supporters wanted - is in the region of 35%. Of course the official number si far, far lower... but the metric I am using is the one Trump and his supporters could not stop hammering on about a few years ago, only to completely forget about is the very day he took office.

So sometimes it's still important to point out in my opinion.

Midlife

FrostyJack wrote: »

Did you read his follow up book about how Trump has destroyed whole government departments with ineptitude and corruption?

Odd also that someone could read all of the big short but still be able to champion deregulation leading to stock market surges?

frag420

Grant Shaggy Self-confidence wrote: »

the markets are very complicated and as another poster said to me it would not be right to try and explain here.

if you are really interested i suggest you buy and read The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Skip the movie as it does not do a very complicated book justice.

I understand, so how about we set up a thread in the economics forum, you post up what you think those numbers mean and we can have the regulars in the economics forum check them for you and maybe they can simplify them for us if you can't?

Would you be happy to contribute to that thread to back up your position?

hill16bhoy

Midlife wrote: »

Odd also that someone could read all of the big short but still be able to champion deregulation leading to stock market surges?

Republicans take some very strange historical lessons from a lot of things, though.

Their historical lesson from the US Civil War is that the glorifying the Confederate side is good.

Their historical lesson from "the rise of Nazism wasn't "never again", it was "stand idly by until people are actually being slaughtered in gas chambers".

Christy42

Midlife wrote: »

That's quite disrespectful to about 75 million people.

It's much easier for both sides to see the other as stupid and blind to reality. The truth is that you should walk in their shoes a bit.

This is a pretty interesting old lecture by Elizabeth Warren

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akVL7QY0S8A

Forget party affiliation and current political sides but she statistically lays out how that in the last couple of decades, the traditional middle class have seen the cost of essentials (home, childcare, healthcare) skyrocket while their wages stagnate.

So they have no holidays, disposable income, safety net, helath provisions and are working weekend jobs for the privalege.

I actually dispise Trump. I think he's a really horrific human but if i was living in the constant stress of trying to survivie with my family from paycheck to paycheck and he said, he'd fix it? And it was a binary choice between him a continued policy of globalisation that had utterly failed me and my family?

Michael Moore called it right in that a lot of people voted for Trump as a hand grenade. Roll it into Washington and watch it go off.

You shouldn't assume that they're all stupid and gullible.

None of that has changed and his popularity is largely unchanged from day 10 or so. Hopefully they will take a hand grenade from the other side next time. At least then some of things may change (as you say American worker rights are really a disgrace for one, would love to see them come towards the EU for instance).

I hope I am wrong and just overly jaded.

ilkhanid

kilns wrote: »

Can the ordinary decent middle of the road card carrying Republican voters actually stand this man? or is it party over anything else?

An increasingly scarce demographic and practically extinct in places like Alabama.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is there a hope that moderate/swing voters and even some of Trumps base are self reflecting after the statements and building racism coming to the fore?
I know he has a sizeable cohort of devotees that will vote for him no matter what he says but surely people looking on and seeing it’s crazy and racist at the very least, are in the majority? And wouldn’t want to be seen to support it?

No. There are precious few "moderates" left in the Republican party. Those that aren't card-carrying racists and xenophobes are "see no evil, hear no evil " types and as for self-reflecting , they're just wriggling, squirming, whistling away.They don't want to look bad, but that doesn't mean they'll do the right thing. Deserting the party is unthinkable.

FartyBlartFast

hill16bhoy wrote: »

Midlife wrote: »

Odd also that someone could read all of the big short but still be able to champion deregulation leading to stock market surges?

Republicans take some very strange historical lessons from a lot of things, though.

Their historical lesson from the US Civil War is that the glorifying the Confederate side is good.

Their historical lesson from "the rise of Nazism wasn't "never again", it was "stand idly by until people are actually being slaughtered in gas chambers".

They don't "take strange historical lessons" - they just outright lie, to be honest.

Remember all the noise they made about the deficit? Obama inherited it at about 450bn, then massively increased it to a out 1,450bn due to the almost unprecedented economic situation. Over the remainder of his term he got it back down to 585bn. An increase of approximately 20% that republicans spoke endlessly of as an unforgivable failure.

Except, under bush they didn't care one bit as he took a budget SURPLUS of 230bn and turned it into that same 450bn deficit. That is an increase of 600bn, despite inheriting an excellent economy to begin with.

Funny enough, Clinton inherited a budget deficit of 250bn and turned it into a surplus of 230bn. This is after Bush snr/Raegan before him had more than trebled it from 75bn to that 250bn figure.

And now that Trump is in! The deficit has in just 2.5 years gone from that 585bn figure to 750bn, an increase of 28%.

Yet not a peep from the "fiscal Conservative" Republicans as they had tax break after tax break out to their paymasters.

Yet watch that tone change literally in the inauguration day of the next democrat president.

Markcheese

In a one sense he's kind of amazing, he's still managing to be the "opposition", you know the way when every disparit group vote to stick it to the man, we'll show the guberment type of thing, but he is the government
, he's racist, he's sexist, back the mega rich, not very patriotic, he's an adultuoua sleaze and yet the religious love him,he gets a blue collar vote, the patriots thínk he's fantastic, he gets a surprising female and Hispanic vote..
His main job seems to be tweeting fox and friends, pissing off americas friend, finding new staff to replace those that walk out, starting trade wars while giving more money to the rich..
And still years on blaming Obama.