WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

duffman13

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

If Trit wasn’t the real seer would he really say one of his team was village straight off the bat. The real seer would peek Whippy and come out and tell us. Not only would a wolf Trit be caught but he would be hanging another teammate too.

If anything, whippy is the closest we have to clear by a long shot.

duffman13 wrote: »

Whippy is nothing really to be considered in all this, I'd agree, ballsy play clearing a wolf off the bat but select a random villager and say they are village isn't exactly a taxing play either

Green&Red wrote: »

Agreed there too, its unfair to have her lumped in on all this

@strawbs I'd agree that she probably is the closest to a LC at the moment

GnR pointing out to Strawbs that Whiplashy was the closest thing to lock clear on day 1 following Trits "reveal"

quickbeam

Whiplashy wrote: »

Because she was throwing shade at me a few hours before, I called her out and suddenly she’s ISOing me as a villager.

Mmm, okay. It was a very weak village endorsement. I'd hardly call it pocketing. Wouldn't scream wolf to me, personally. But, maybe that's just a matter of opinion so I'll take you at your word.

Clarabel

JESUS - I am meant to be in town and I am still not dressed. I have to go.

I'll be stealing looks, I'm meeting a smoker - so that's handy!

quickbeam

Clarabel wrote: »

I will try

I think Ecto was munched cause she voted and was onto wolf GnR. So I looked for other potential munch victums based on this theory.

D1 - trit was always going to get a munch
Ecto vote me and I am vil - so that's why I didn;t get munched (based on this theory)
K also didn't get munched - so maybe that means that QB is a wolf
QB didn't get munched - so maybe Bags is a wolf (but combined with above there's a higher chance Bags and QB or Vil OR QB is a wolf)

okay so D2
K did not get munched, so either he is not a wolf or QB is a wolf (in my theory)
K also didn't get munched D3 - which doesn't fit my theory

Yeah, no clearer, sorry.

duffman13

quickbeam wrote: »

She really isn't!

Qb then says she really isnt about Whippy being lock clear, which goes against GnR

Whiplashy

Clarabel wrote: »

JESUS - I am meant to be in town and I am still not dressed. I have to go.

I'll be stealing looks, I'm meeting a smoker - so that's handy!

Enjoy yourself

Clarabel

quickbeam wrote: »

Yeah, no clearer, sorry.

Ok. If Ecto was munched because of being a wolf. What can you gleem about votes. Try be objective. I hate writing Clara is bad but I have to be objective

quickbeam

Clarabel wrote: »

Ok. If Ecto was munched because of being a wolf. What can you gleem about votes. Try be objective. I hate writing Clara is bad but I have to be objective

Seer, you mean?

quickbeam

I still don't understand. Ecto would have peeked GnR N1, revealing only after Trit's munch. The first lynch therefore tells us nothing.

Assuming by the time of the second lynch, they've figured out that she was the seer, I'm not sure what the lynch results tell us. Nobody voted for her. The only one who even hinted of lynching her was you when you suggested her or Whippy for the CFD, but then dropped it and suggested Whippy only.

So, assuming wolves knew she was seer, and had planned to munch her already, and that they knew we'd figure out GnR was the wolf, then, they could just pile on GnR for Lynch 2 and earn villager points for being "on" him. But they didn't. Only Ecto voted for him.

So either they hadn't figured it out until overnight when they saw Ecto had voted for GnR, or they didn't think that far ahead, or they didn't think we'd spot Ecto's breadcrumbs.

I'm not sure what else could be gleamed.

kitten_k

Whiplashy wrote: »

Because she was throwing shade at me a few hours before, I called her out and suddenly she’s ISOing me as a villager.

In fairness alot of people were shading me, I chose you to ISO as you had a lower post count. If my ISO has came back with you as a wolf you would be saying I am a wolf because I accused you after you accused me. As always with this game, you just can't win!

quickbeam

I have cast a vote.

quickbeam

If Whippy is a wolf, then all her "lynch me, you still have time to pull it back for LYLO" malarky could mean that her team-mate is pretty well hidden and has us all fooled?

Whiplashy

quickbeam wrote: »

I have cast a vote.

Care to enlighten us?

Whiplashy

quickbeam wrote: »

If Whippy is a wolf, then all her "lynch me, you still have time to pull it back for LYLO" malarky could mean that her team-mate is pretty well hidden and has us all fooled?

Like yourself perhaps?

Whiplashy

Screw it I'm putting in a vote for QB. I gave ye plenty of time to lynch me.

duffman13

Ive a vote cast but there is real temptation to switch

Whiplashy

duffman13 wrote: »

Ive a vote cast but there is real temptation to switch

If you’ve voted me I’m not a wolf

duffman13

Whiplashy wrote: »

If you’ve voted me I’m not a wolf

Im not sure on that, I am voting QB for now!

quickbeam

Okay, two scenarios:


(1) Whippy flips red:

sKeith wrote: »

Strawberry Milkshake : tritium, sullivlo, Clarabel, tusk, Green&Red
tusk : kitten_k, baggly, duffman13
kitten_k : Strawberry Milkshake, Whiplashy
quickbeam : kolido
Clarabel : Ectoplasm
Baggly : quickbeam

sKeith wrote: »

tusk : Baggly, duffman13, Clarabel
Baggly : Green&Red, Kolido
Clarabel : Whiplashy, kitten_k
kitten_k : tusk, sullivlo
Green&Red : Ectoplasm
Kolido : quickbeam

One wolf left to find.

My original wagonomics theory of "one wolf on Strawbs, one on outliers" in Lynch 1 so far holds true. Doesn't necessarily clear Kitten who she voted for, as Kitten wasn't in much danger. Still leaves theory that third wolf on Tusk.

So wolf still among Kitten, Bags and Duff.

Probably clears Clara as Whippy voted for her in lynch 2 (plus other stuff about Clara calling for Whippy for the CFD, but that's aside from wagonomics), when any of the top 4 might have been at risk.

Bags and Duff vote together on Lynch 2, Kitten votes separate. But probably rules out Kitten as she voted with Whippy, and wolves not likely to do that.

So still leaves Bags and Duff. Would be the case of three wolves always voting separately.

But then back to would wolf GnR really vote for wolf Bags? Leaves Duff once again.


----

(2) Whippy flips green:

sKeith wrote: »

Strawberry Milkshake : tritium, sullivlo, Clarabel, tusk, Green&Red
tusk : kitten_k, baggly, duffman13
kitten_k : Strawberry Milkshake, Whiplashy
quickbeam : kolido
Clarabel : Ectoplasm
Baggly : quickbeam

sKeith wrote: »

tusk : Baggly, duffman13, Clarabel
Baggly : Green&Red, Kolido
Clarabel : Whiplashy, kitten_k
kitten_k : tusk, sullivlo
Green&Red : Ectoplasm
Kolido : quickbeam

Disaster - still two wolves to find and we're at LYLO

If one wolf on the outliers that leaves Kolido, but that's still very unlikely as it meant he voted with GnR against Bags.

So, no wolves on outliers (I know I'm not a wolf!). Assuming, yet again that wolf Kolido wouldn't vote with wolf GnR. So two on Strawbs or two on Tusk?

Clara - a possibility
Kitten - a possibility
Bags - still would mean wolf GnR voting for wolf Bags
Duff - a possibility

Combos:
Clara & Kitten - a possibility, nice spread of votes
Clara & Bags - voted separately in L1 and together in L2
Clara & Duff - voted separately in L1 and together in L2
Kitten & Bags - voted together in L1 and separately in L2
Kitten & Duff - voted together in L1 and separately in L2
Bags & Duff - voted together both times, only players to vote for same player both times

Those who voted together are on players who had a least three votes on them though (tusk, both times), so less noticeable, and more likely than two wolves being the ONLY two voting for a player.

If we rule out combos which include Bags, we're left with:

Clara & Kitten - a possibility, nice spread of votes
Clara & Duff - voted separately in L1 and together in L2
Kitten & Duff - voted together in L1 and separately in L2

I just don't know

I'm off to cry in a corner.

quickbeam

Whiplashy wrote: »

Like yourself perhaps?

You think I'm well hidden?? Gerroutathat!

quickbeam

Those that are voting for me, please tell me what a red and a green flip will tell you.

quickbeam

Whiplashy wrote: »

Like yourself perhaps?

Actually ... is this an admission of guilt, and you're trying to bring me down with you???

quickbeam

And, @Kitten, and @Whippy,

Can you both tell me why you voted for Clara yesterday?

Kolido

Right qb Im not going to bs, I will give you who I think is town, by default the others are likely wolf. Thats how I role.

Whippy, clara, baggly are my most likely town

#FFA 5
Qb
Duffers
Kitten

I will be voting one of these today.

quickbeam

Kolido wrote: »

Right qb Im not going to bs, I will give you who I think is town, by default the others are likely wolf. Thats how I role.

Whippy, clara, baggly are my most likely town

#FFA 5
Qb
Duffers
Kitten

I will be voting one of these today.

I think you're Village.

But, can you give reasons for clearing who you did?

It could be helpful.

Kolido

quickbeam wrote: »

I think you're Village.

But, can you give reasons for clearing who you did?

It could be helpful.

Whippy for asking to be lynched. Seems like a vil move
Clara call it a gut, but maybe he is the one escaping me.
Baggly for poking holes, again I feel a vil move. Could have sat back if he wanted with his reffing gig.

Listen qb, of duffers and kitten, who would you have higher on that wolf list?

Clarabel

quickbeam wrote: »

Seer, you mean?

Yes.

I've voting K

quickbeam

Kolido wrote: »

Whippy for asking to be lynched. Seems like a vil move
Clara call it a gut, but maybe he is the one escaping me.
Baggly for poking holes, again I feel a vil move. Could have sat back if he wanted with his reffing gig.

Listen qb, of duffers and kitten, who would you have higher on that wolf list?

Duffers.

Kolido

quickbeam wrote: »

Duffers.

Any particular reason?

quickbeam

Kolido wrote: »

Any particular reason?

Wagonomics.