WereWolf: A 13 player Seer game

kitten_k

quickbeam wrote: »

Okay, two scenarios:


(1) Whippy flips red:






One wolf left to find.

My original wagonomics theory of "one wolf on Strawbs, one on outliers" in Lynch 1 so far holds true. Doesn't necessarily clear Kitten who she voted for, as Kitten wasn't in much danger. Still leaves theory that third wolf on Tusk.

So wolf still among Kitten, Bags and Duff.

Probably clears Clara as Whippy voted for her in lynch 2 (plus other stuff about Clara calling for Whippy for the CFD, but that's aside from wagonomics), when any of the top 4 might have been at risk.

Bags and Duff vote together on Lynch 2, Kitten votes separate. But probably rules out Kitten as she voted with Whippy, and wolves not likely to do that.

So still leaves Bags and Duff. Would be the case of three wolves always voting separately.

But then back to would wolf GnR really vote for wolf Bags? Leaves Duff once again.


----

(2) Whippy flips green:





Disaster - still two wolves to find and we're at LYLO

If one wolf on the outliers that leaves Kolido, but that's still very unlikely as it meant he voted with GnR against Bags.

So, no wolves on outliers (I know I'm not a wolf!). Assuming, yet again that wolf Kolido wouldn't vote with wolf GnR. So two on Strawbs or two on Tusk?

Clara - a possibility
Kitten - a possibility
Bags - still would mean wolf GnR voting for wolf Bags
Duff - a possibility

Combos:
Clara & Kitten - a possibility, nice spread of votes
Clara & Bags - voted separately in L1 and together in L2
Clara & Duff - voted separately in L1 and together in L2
Kitten & Bags - voted together in L1 and separately in L2
Kitten & Duff - voted together in L1 and separately in L2
Bags & Duff - voted together both times, only players to vote for same player both times

Those who voted together are on players who had a least three votes on them though (tusk, both times), so less noticeable, and more likely than two wolves being the ONLY two voting for a player.

If we rule out combos which include Bags, we're left with:

Clara & Kitten - a possibility, nice spread of votes
Clara & Duff - voted separately in L1 and together in L2
Kitten & Duff - voted together in L1 and separately in L2

I just don't know

I'm off to cry in a corner.

Is there a reason you are clearing Kolido? The bit in bold mentions him but you don't include him in any of your scenarios?

quickbeam

For the exact reason I said. I don't think he'd vote with GnR for Baggly.

quickbeam

Sometimes I wonder if people read my posts at all.

kitten_k

quickbeam wrote: »

For the exact reason I said. I don't think he'd vote with GnR for Baggly.

But we don't know for 100% that Baggly is a wolf? So you are clearing him on your thoughts that Baggly will flip red?

quickbeam

kitten_k wrote: »

But we don't know for 100% that Baggly is a wolf? So you are clearing him on your thoughts that Baggly will flip red?

No I'm clearing him on my thoughts because GnR has already flipped red.

While I don't rule it out, it just seems unlikely that two wolves would be the only two players to vote against someone.

duffman13

kitten_k wrote: »

But we don't know for 100% that Baggly is a wolf? So you are clearing him on your thoughts that Baggly will flip red?

Baggly isnt a wolf read the interaction with GnR from SM lynch onwards, tell me thats a wolf, annihilating another wolf in such a way!

Clarabel

quickbeam wrote: »

You think I'm well hidden?? Gerroutathat!

She's either absolutely a good village or absolutely doing what wolf QB does best.

If I'm honest I'm not seeing the smooth coolness this time.

Whips if you are village you're not helping. Really.

I've been at all the last wolf wins, I can't let this happen again.

Has Bags been back today at all?

Clarabel

duffman13 wrote: »

Baggly isnt a wolf read the interaction with GnR from SM lynch onwards, tell me thats a wolf, annihilating another wolf in such a way!

Duff, I'm on the phone any chance you can give me the post start number? Or date/time. I never had a chance to read back this morning

Whiplashy

quickbeam wrote: »

Actually ... is this an admission of guilt, and you're trying to bring me down with you???

How on earth is that an admission of guilt? I have nothing to be guilty for anyway!

kitten_k

duffman13 wrote: »

Baggly isnt a wolf read the interaction with GnR from SM lynch onwards, tell me thats a wolf, annihilating another wolf in such a way!

Oh I don't think he is a wolf but QB's post read to me that she thinks he is a wolf and is clearing Kolido on that basis.

quickbeam

Clarabel wrote: »

Duff, I'm on the phone any chance you can give me the post start number? Or date/time. I never had a chance to read back this morning

Only a page ago. Post 1577.

Whiplashy

quickbeam wrote: »

And, @Kitten, and @Whippy,

Can you both tell me why you voted for Clara yesterday?

Clara was purely gut feel, same as you are today. I didn’t list you as one of my wolfie options earlier but something about you isn’t sitting right with me now. Probably the fact that you’re the most vocal on my wagon and I know I’m village.

Whiplashy

I’m off to get some shopping done. Hopefully I won’t be dead when I get back!

quickbeam

kitten_k wrote: »

Oh I don't think he is a wolf but QB's post read to me that she thinks he is a wolf and is clearing Kolido on that basis.

You do get now that I've clarified, that that's not what I meant?

In fact, I've said that based on GnR's vote on Baggly probably is a villager.

quickbeam

Whiplashy wrote: »

How on earth is that an admission of guilt? I have nothing to be guilty for anyway!

I said: "if you're a wolf your partner could be well hidden".

Instead of replying that you were not a wolf, you replied that I could be your partner.

duffman13

Clarabel wrote: »

Duff, I'm on the phone any chance you can give me the post start number? Or date/time. I never had a chance to read back this morning

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=110613934&postcount=1577

I quoted a bit of an exchange on the last page

duffman13

kitten_k wrote: »

Oh I don't think he is a wolf but QB's post read to me that she thinks he is a wolf and is clearing Kolido on that basis.

Tbh she seems to be trying to garner support from anyone. Pockety wolf

quickbeam

Course I want support. Villagers should be working together. I know it's hard when we don't know who "we" are, but we should at least try. I'm desperate to find villagers as much as wolves here.

kitten_k

quickbeam wrote: »

And, @Kitten, and @Whippy,

Can you both tell me why you voted for Clara yesterday?

kitten_k wrote: »

For someone who has posted a lot it feels like you have not really been on thread and you are just skirting along

I gave my reason to Clara when she asked for it.

Clarabel

quickbeam wrote: »

Only a page ago. Post 1577.

The bags GnR fight?

quickbeam

Clarabel wrote: »

The bags GnR fight?

Duffman's summary of it, yeah.

duffman13

This place is dying a death today!

kitten_k

Clarabel wrote: »

NO NO, I definetly think that Whips is a wolf! Right now.

However you posted last night about warming up to her and also she seems to be pleading her case this morning. If what she is saying is true - that we should mislynch her to get rid of the discussion, then I would we waste the mislynch on K or Duff.

I;ve two things to do.
1. read the arguments Bags had yesterday
2. Vote analysis with new info

I mention this in my multi quote post but nobody seemed to pick up on it. Am i reading too much into the wording here? Who would want to "waste the mislynch"??

quickbeam

I did reply to that post, though not specifically on that phrasing.

Whatcha thinking? Persuade me here.

Kolido

kitten_k wrote: »

But we don't know for 100% that Baggly is a wolf? So you are clearing him on your thoughts that Baggly will flip red?

If all 3 of us were wolves, that would be some play.

Though you could know we are not anyway.

kitten_k

quickbeam wrote: »

I did reply to that post, though not specifically on that phrasing.

Whatcha thinking? Persuade me here.

Yea I seen your reply but I was talking about this part.

We are all here trying to avoid a mis lynch and Clara is talking about wasting a mis lynch which would play right into the wolves hands.

sKeith

A majority has been reached.

sKeith

Day 4 has ended.

Lynch results:

quickbeam : Baggly, Whiplashy, duffman13, Kolido
Whiplashy : quickbeam


quickbeam has been lynched. They were vanilla villager.

Night 4 begins and will end when munch has been finalized.


Please cease posting until munch results have been posted.

sKeith

Night 4 is nearly over, we just need the majority of the village to agree to it.

I need 3 living players to thank this post.

If they do, the munch will be posted, and day 5 begins.

Day 5 will last until 10pm Saturday night or until a majority has been reached.

If I do not get 3 living players to thank this post, the game goes on pause until Monday morning.

The choice is yours.

sKeith

Night 4 ends.

Baggly has been found dead, they were a vanilla villager.

Day 5 begins here and will end with a lynch at 10pm Saturday or when majority has been reached.