Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Why are all papers reporting that there could be a general election or the government can call one?

They can’t.

Stop moaning ffs

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Why are all papers reporting that there could be a general election or the government can call one?

They can’t.

Johnson is calling one tomorrow if he loses to the MPs rebelling. Downing Street has already briefed journalists on this tonight. He can do it under the fixed term parliament act.

ILoveYourVibes

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Johnson is calling one tomorrow if he loses to the MPs rebelling. Downing Street has already briefed journalists on this tonight. He can do it under the fixed term parliament act.

So like 2 weeks before the uk is set to leave? And no one knows for sure who the leader will be.

Or else its a threat just to keep them in line.

FunLover18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Johnson is calling one tomorrow if he loses to the MPs rebelling. Downing Street has already briefed journalists on this tonight. He can do it under the fixed term parliament act.

He needs approval of the MPs, no? A commons vote? He'll probably get it but I don't think he can just call one.

Stop moaning ffs

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

So like 2 weeks before the uk is set to leave? And no one knows for sure who the leader will be.

Or else its a threat just to keep them in line.

It is both. Election to be held October 13th.
Boris has been electioneering for weeks now. It’s bizarre he didn’t just call one tonight but he can’t. He has to be defeated tomorrow in parliament when it sits after the break.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Johnson is calling one tomorrow if he loses to the MPs rebelling. Downing Street has already briefed journalists on this tonight. He can do it under the fixed term parliament act .

Can he? I thought that’s exactly what he can’t do under the fixed term parliament act. Hence the name. He needs a vote of no confidence.

Unless he is encouraging conservatives to vote against his government.

ILoveYourVibes

The uk is so so badly ****ed right now ain't it??

I mean we can't even comprehend how ****ed.

MadYaker

Still praying the DUP get thrown under the bus and the border is in the irish sea.

J Mysterio

MadYaker wrote: »

And the trump one as well! I think there’s going to be amazing biopics and documentaries in the next few years.

They are already happening. See the Great Hack on Netflix.

More will come as the dust settles.

ILoveYourVibes

How likely is it that MPs will rebel tomorrow?

recedite

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Can he? I thought that’s exactly what he can’t do under the fixed term parliament act. Hence the name. He needs a vote of no confidence.
Unless he is encouraging conservatives to vote against his government.

He could voluntarily collapse the govt. but there is a slight chance that a new govt. could form without an election.
As is (maybe) happening now in Italy.
I'd say Boris' advisors have spent more time doing the maths than Salvini did though, so he knows in advance how it will pan out.

briany

MadYaker wrote: »

And the trump one as well! I think there’s going to be amazing biopics and documentaries in the next few years.

There are already a few great Trump ones. PBS Frontline seem to be doing one or two episodes on him per year.

Peregrinus

recedite wrote: »

He could voluntarily collapse the govt. but there is a slight chance that a new govt. could form without an election.
As is (maybe) happening now in Italy.
I'd say Boris' advisors have spent more time doing the maths than Salvini did though, so he knows in advance how it will pan out.

You can do all the maths you like, but some of the variables depend on correctly guessing what choices other people will make in the future, so you can never know with certainty how things will pan out.

Salvini is finding that. Don't dismiss the possiblity that Johnson could too.

Peregrinus

Franz Von Peppercorn II wrote: »

Can he? I thought that’s exactly what he can’t do under the fixed term parliament act. Hence the name. He needs a vote of no confidence.

Unless he is encouraging conservatives to vote against his government.

There are a couple of routes to an early general election, but they all involve a vote in the Commons. He cannot bring about a general election without some kind of endorsement from Parliament.

Hoever the Labour Party have been demanding a GE for months now, and more recently have been screaming about the sidelining of democracy (through the proroguation). It's hightly unlikely that, if given the chance to vote now for a general election, they wouldn't. And if Johnson also whipped the Tories to vote for a GE, most of them would.

So the chances that Johnson can't get Parliament to approve a GE are very small.

recedite

Peregrinus wrote: »

the Labour Party have been demanding a GE for months now.

They could have called a no confidence vote anytime they wanted.
Monkey is wary of monkey trap though.

Or is it "elephant trap" - No I think that sounds too grandiose.

Peregrinus

recedite wrote: »

They could have called a no confidence vote anytime they wanted.
Monkey is wary of monkey trap though.

Or is it "elephant trap" - No I think that sounds too grandiose.

Theyh could have called a VoNC, but they probably wouldn't have won it. Which would explain why they didn't call it.

But it will be different if Johnson decides to go for a GE. He needs a 2/3rd majority for that, but if he whips the Tories to vote for a GE most of them will, and if Corbyn whips the Labour party for a GE they all will. So, once Johnson decides to seek a GE it's basically down to Corbyn to decide whether he gets it. And I think Corbyin genuinely does want a GE; it's the only way he's ever going to get into power, and fighting a GE that he might lose is still a better bet for him than not fighting a GE at all.

ZX7R

Does anyone get the impression lately that borris wants out of been prime minister

Peregrinus

ZX7R wrote: »

Does anyone get the impression lately that borris wants out of been prime minister

No. He wants to be Prime Minister, but with a majority.

ZX7R

Peregrinus wrote: »

No. He wants to be Prime Minister, but with a majority.

Fair point so if an election goes ahead it will be all or nothing

recedite

Peregrinus wrote: »

And I think Corbyin genuinely does want a GE; it's the only way he's ever going to get into power, and fighting a GE that he might lose is still a better bet for him than not fighting a GE at all.

Corbyn would be forced to agree because he has already committed to opposing a No deal Brexit.
Boris, on the other hand has committed to honouring the referendum. The parliament can legislate against No Deal but they cannot force Boris to go cap in hand to Brussels asking for more time, Teresa May style. He won't do it.
So Boris wins either way. The jackpot for him is calling an election now but holding it after Brexit day. Farage and co then stand down or form an election pact, allowing Boris to return with an overall majority. He then dumps the DUP and negotiates a free trade agreement very quickly with the EU, by agreeing to the Irish Backstop demands and paying over some cash.
Sinn Fein's plan to provoke a UI border poll on the back of an EU imposed hard border come to nothing, and Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson earns the title he has already bestowed on himself - Minister for the Union.

Peregrinus

recedite wrote: »

Corbyn would be forced to agree because he has already committed to opposing a No deal Brexit.
Boris, on the other hand has committed to honouring the referendum. The parliament can legislate against No Deal but they cannot force Boris to go cap in hand to Brussels asking for more time, Teresa May style. He won't do it.

He must obey the law. If Parliament enacts a law requiring the PM, in certain circumstances, to seek an extension, then in those circumstances Johnson either (a) seeks an extension, or (b) resigns, making way for a PM who will seek an extension. Simple as.

recedite wrote: »

So Boris wins either way. The jackpot for him is calling an election now but holding it after Brexit day. Farage and co then stand down or form an election pact, allowing Boris to return with an overall majority. He then dumps the DUP and negotiates a free trade agreement very quickly with the EU, by agreeing to the Irish Backstop demands and paying over some cash.

It's not that simple. Any post-Brexit agreement is not a Withdrawal Deal, agreed at EuCo by a qualified majority, but a deal under Art 280 which (if its on the terms you outline) requires unaimous consent from the EU-27. And they all already have interests, objectives, goals, etc that they wish to push in any UK/EU trade deal. They are not going to abandon those so Boris can quickly dig the UK out of the hole into which he has driven it. A UK/EU free trade agreement will take years to negotiate and settle - trade deals always do. What the UK will likely be offered is an interim association agreement, pending a free trade agreement, which will include what the EU wants, which (among other things) will look strikingly like the backstop. But even that requires EU-027 unanimity, so it will give the UK nothing that any member state wants to have a fight about.

Essentially, Johnson won't be offered a quick free trade deal. He'll be offered a quick association agreement, which recreates something like the transition period, but possibly open ended. And it will include the backstop.

recedite wrote: »

Sinn Fein's plan to provoke a UI border poll on the back of an EU imposed hard border come to nothing, and Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson earns the title he has already bestowed on himself - Minister for the Union.

There is no version of Brexit which strengthens the union (of GB and NI). The pursuit of the ultra-Brexit project has already weakened the bonds of the union in ways that I think cannot be fully repaired. Even if Westminster backs down on it determination to injure NI by denying it the backstop that it wants and needs, people will not easily forget how willing they were to do that, and the contempt, disdain and disregard they showed for the needs and wants of NI. And the Scots will have similar memories.

ILoveYourVibes

ZX7R wrote: »

Fair point so if an election goes ahead it will be all or nothing

Or they could end up with a hung parliament again.

ZX7R

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Or they could end up with a hung parliament again.

it would just keep rolling over and over if thats the case

InTheShadows

ZX7R wrote: »

Does anyone get the impression lately that borris wants out of been prime minister

No

blinding

Boris , considering the parliamentary numbers , is doing a very good job at the moment .

I don’t see Brexit being stopped and if he delivers Brexit he will get a good majority in a General Election .

If all those re-moaners had voted for Theresa May’s deal then they could have had a very soft Brexit .

But of course what they really wanted to do was subvert the democratic decision of the people and stop Brexit .

Democracy will win .

Calina

I see what the current farmed narrative is - blame people who don't support the WA for not voting for it.

Includes quite a chunk of the current cabinet and all the ERG though.

Peregrinus

blinding wrote: »

Boris , considering the parliamentary numbers , is doing a very good job at the moment .

Oh, balls. He's dealing with the parliamentary numbers by (a) ignoring parliament, (b) proroguing parliament and (c) taking no decisions which would require parliamentary approval. Which is most decisions.

blinding wrote: »

I don’t see Brexit being stopped and if he delivers Brexit he will get a good majority in a General Election .

Mabye. Depends on how soon after Brext the election is, and how painful Brexit turns out to be.

blinding wrote: »

If all those re-moaners had voted for Theresa May’s deal then they could have had a very soft Brexit .

Remainers don't want a soft Brexit. There's a pretty strong clue in the name "remainer". It's the Brexiters who voted against the Brexit deal who want their heads and consciences examined.

blinding wrote: »

But of course what they really wanted to do was subvert the democratic decision of the people and stop Brexit.

Democracy will win.

Well, let's hope so. But it's not a given. The antidemocratic ultra-Brexiters may yet prevail.

blinding

Peregrinus wrote: »

Oh, balls. He's dealing with the parliamentary numbers by (a) ignoring parliament, (b) proroguing parliament and (c) taking no decisions which would require parliamentary approval. Which is most decisions.

He doesn’t seem to be afraid of a general Election which is the ultimate in Democracy .

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mabye. Depends on how soon after Brext the election is, and how painful Brexit turns out to be.

The election may be before Brexit . Probably the most democratic time to have it in truth .

Re-moaners seem to be running from a general election .

Peregrinus wrote: »

Remainers don't want a soft Brexit. There's a pretty strong clue in the name "remainer". It's the Brexiters who voted against the Brexit deal who want their heads and consciences examined.

Many of these re-mainers have said that they accept the democratic decision to Brexit while in fact actually doing everything they can to subvert that democratic decision .

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, let's hope so. But it's not a given. The antidemocratic ultra-Brexiters may yet prevail.

I am against the anti-democratic re-moaners / re-mainers . I am a great believer in democracy and want the democratic decision of the people respected .

I have great faith in democracy and believe democracy will win .

We have only to look at Hong Kong and Russia to see what happens when democracy is not respected .

FrancieBrady

blinding wrote: »

He doesn’t seem to be afraid of a general Election which is the ultimate in Democracy .


The election may be before Brexit . Probably the most democratic time to have it in truth .

Re-moaners seem to be running from a general election .


Many of these re-mainers have said that they accept the democratic decision to Brexit while in fact actually doing everything they can to subvert that democratic decision .



I am against the anti-democratic re-moaners / re-mainers . I am a great believer in democracy and want the democratic decision of the people respected .

I have great faith in democracy and believe democracy will win .

We have only to look at Hong Kong and Russia to see what happens when democracy is not respected .

What possible good is a 'democracy' where you cannot stand for what YOU believe or cannot change your mind?

Everyone of these MP's are elected, and elected SINCE the Brexit vote. There is nothing wrong with democracy in that respect.

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

What possible good is a 'democracy' where you cannot stand for what YOU believe or cannot change your mind?

Everyone of these MP's are elected, and elected SINCE the Brexit vote. There is nothing wrong with democracy in that respect.

Many of these MPs got elected on manifestos to respect the Democratic decision of the people in the Referendum to leave the Eu .

They have done everything to subvert the democratic decision of the people since they fraudulently stole their seats . The sooner they face the electorate again the better .