Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

davedanon

The UK is like a golf club member that cancels their membership, leaves their fees unpaid, then thinks they can walk through a hole in a fence, play a round of golf, 'playing through' anyone they encounter, then sit on the club verandah with a bag of cans, flicking vees at the club members in the bar.

Penn

Dytalus wrote: »

No it doesn't.

WTO rules are not a 'free trade area' as promised. They are the bog standard, treat everyone in the WTO the same, rules that govern international trade and on which no major nation survives alone.

There are no mechanisms in place to take advantages of any "free trade areas" - they've only managed to roll over a few trade agreements. One includes Iceland. None of them include Turkey, and none of them include the EU nations in between Iceland and Turkey.

It also means renegotiating individual trade deals with all potential trading partners, and doing so from a position of absolute weakness and urgency. Not to mention a no deal exit means they renege on their responsibilities regarding the Good Friday agreement, and if they don't pay the 39bn or whatever withdrawal bill to the EU, they'll be going into trade negotiations with other countries as a country who reneges on deals and doesn't pay it's debts, while also blocking a potential trade deal with the EU, one of the biggest trading blocs in the world, until that debt is paid.

The idea that on Nov 1st they suddenly have all these amazing trade deals on WTO terms is laughable.

Penn

davedanon wrote: »

I do. I'm fairly sure a significant proportion of leave voters did so on the basis that they would get 'one of the easiest trade deals in history', to quote David Davis. They thought they could shrug off all the annoying petty EU rules (as they saw them thanks to decades of Tory press propaganda) and yet retain all the benefits and not suffer any hardships at all. That's what they were promised, by Johnson to Farage and all points in between. Now they see the reality, and you can bet your life there's lots of buyer's remorse out there.

I agree, though I do think the majority (eg. I'd say more than 2/3) simply want out of the EU at any cost due to a combination of national pride, racism and ignorance. The lies never would have mattered to them because they're of the same mentality of those who created the lies.

ohnonotgmail

Penn wrote: »

I agree, though I do think the majority (eg. I'd say more than 2/3) simply want out of the EU at any cost due to a combination of national pride, racism and ignorance. The lies never would have mattered to them because they're of the same mentality of those who created the lies.

even if it is as much as 2/3 who want out at any cost that does not constitute a majority in favour of no deal.

Penn

Penn wrote: »

Not to mention a no deal exit means they renege on their responsibilities regarding the Good Friday agreement

such as?

InTheShadows

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Comon now lads and lasses you can dress it up any way that you want but they voted to leave and should have been gone in March. Boris got power on the promise of a 31st October exit. The referendum was clear, leave or remain. They chose to leave and are being ignored. Its a disaster for democracy. Dont tell me they didnt vote for a no deal, simple research debunks that claim. A basic understanding of Article 50 is all that is needed.

Parliament doesn't believe in democracy that is now clear. The Brexit party are now going to see a huge increase in their vote.

davedanon

InTheShadows wrote: »

Parliament doesn't believe in democracy that is now clear. The Brexit party are now going to see a huge increase in their vote.

As always, the RW way is the inversion of reality. "I'm no puppet. You're the puppet".

Parliament is, of course, standing up for and defending democracy.

FrancieBrady

InTheShadows wrote: »

Parliament doesn't believe in democracy that is now clear. The Brexit party are now going to see a huge increase in their vote.

Parliament reacted to a government who was subverting it's role.

Parliament is sovereign in the UK supposedly. Until Monday anyhow, when the monarch's instructions must be followed.

Professor Moriarty

InTheShadows wrote: »

Parliament doesn't believe in democracy that is now clear. The Brexit party are now going to see a huge increase in their vote.

That's the Leave vote split right down the middle so. Avalanche of seats for Remain parties. Excellent.

Penn

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

even if it is as much as 2/3 who want out at any cost that does not constitute a majority in favour of no deal.

A majority of Leave voters, not a majority of all voters.

is_that_so

InTheShadows wrote: »

Parliament doesn't believe in democracy that is now clear. The Brexit party are now going to see a huge increase in their vote.

There's a YouGov poll which has the Brexit Party on 12%. Even doubling the share of the vote is unlikely to win them seats.

gmisk

is_that_so wrote: »

There's a YouGov poll which has the Brexit Party on 12%. Even doubling the share of the vote is unlikely to win them seats.

But it will reduce the chance of conservatives getting seats?

ancapailldorcha

gmisk wrote: »

But it will reduce the chance of conservatives getting seats?

Of course it will. The person who wins the most votes takes the seat. Voting for the Brexit party just splits the Tory vote.

MadYaker

InTheShadows wrote: »

Parliament doesn't believe in democracy that is now clear. The Brexit party are now going to see a huge increase in their vote.

If this actually happens the tory vote will be split in half and the labour and the lib dems might get in, be careful what you wish for.

The brexit party got 12.5% of the ote in the last election and no seats. Current polls don't have that changing much. If they get even one seat I'll be amazed. FPTP makes it hard for the smaller parties.

is_that_so

gmisk wrote: »

But it will reduce the chance of conservatives getting seats?

In all probability yes, although there have been some mutterings of them trying to take on Labour leavers.

MadYaker

Eric Cartman wrote: »

JRM yesterday and others before have addressed this, in the event of a ‘no deal’ brexit they fall to WTO trading rules as a default, already in place and the mechanisms are on the table so the ‘iceland to turkey’ statement holds

JRM has no idea what he's talking about and you need to stop listening to him or at least fact check what he's saying. Trading WTO rules would result in a big increase in tarrifs on many UK exports and would be a disaster for farmers in particular. North Korea is pretty much the only country that trades exclusively on WTO rules and guess what, they don't trade. Almost everyone else uses agreements to make thing easier for domestic export industries. Plus if they leave without a deal it will take years to work out different trade agreements with every country the UK trades with, something they don't have to worry about at the moment as part of the EU.

is_that_so

MadYaker wrote: »

If this actually happens the tory vote will be split in half and the labour and the lib dems might get in, be careful what you wish for.

The brexit party got 12.5% of the ote in the last election and no seats. Current polls don't have that changing much. If they get even one seat I'll be amazed. FPTP makes it hard for the smaller parties.

This is why Nigel, that defender of democracy, is such a big fan of proportional representation.

ohnonotgmail

Penn wrote: »

A majority of Leave voters, not a majority of all voters.

and not a majority of those who voted.

is_that_so

MadYaker wrote: »

JRM has no idea what he's talking about and you need to stop listening to him or at least fact check what he's saying. Trading WTO rules would result in a big increase in tarrifs on many UK exports and would be a disaster for farmers in particular. North Korea is pretty much the only country that trades exclusively on WTO rules and guess what, they don't trade. Almost everyone else uses agreements to make thing easier for domestic export industries. Plus if they leave without a deal it will take years to work out different trade agreements with every country the UK trades with, something they don't have to worry about at the moment as part of the EU.

It doesn't have to be true, he just needs to keep repeating it as form of comfort to those who really have no idea what's going on at all. It gives the impression that they know what they are doing!

davedanon

MadYaker wrote: »

JRM has no idea what he's talking about and you need to stop listening to him or at least fact check what he's saying. Trading WTO rules would result in a big increase in tarrifs on many UK exports and would be a disaster for farmers in particular. North Korea is pretty much the only country that trades exclusively on WTO rules and guess what, they don't trade. Almost everyone else uses agreements to make thing easier for domestic export industries. Plus if they leave without a deal it will take years to work out different trade agreements with every country the UK trades with, something they don't have to worry about at the moment as part of the EU.

There are hundreds of agreements the EU has concluded over decades. The UK will have to start over from scratch, and guess what: because the EU has been doing these negotiations on all our behalves, the UK doesn't have nearly enough experienced negotiators to do the job. It's not just a matter of hiring people, either. Unless they can somehow poach them from somewhere. The EU has a LOT of them.

Donald Trump

MadYaker wrote: »

Eric Cartman wrote: »

JRM yesterday and others before have addressed this, in the event of a ‘no deal’ brexit they fall to WTO trading rules as a default, already in place and the mechanisms are on the table so the ‘iceland to turkey’ statement holds

JRM has no idea what he's talking about and you need to stop listening to him or at least fact check what he's saying. Trading WTO rules would result in a big increase in tarrifs on many UK exports and would be a disaster for farmers in particular. North Korea is pretty much the only country that trades exclusively on WTO rules and guess what, they don't trade. Almost everyone else uses agreements to make thing easier for domestic export industries. Plus if they leave without a deal it will take years to work out different trade agreements with every country the UK trades with, something they don't have to worry about at the moment as part of the EU.

WTO rules basically mean you have to treat all countries, with which you do not have a trade agreement, the same.


That means that if there is no deal, the EU can not apply either punitive nor favourable exceptions for them.


Suppose, for example, the EU does a trade deal with Canada which allows Canada to export grain to the EU tariff free and the EU imposes a blanket 30% tariff on grain from "other" countries with which it does not have a deal. Then the EU will also be forced to apply that 30% tariff to the UK if it wants to export grain to the EU. The only "advantage" to the UK is that the EU cannot impose a higher, say, 50% tariff on those UK exports............but it also cannot decide to only apply a favourable 10% tariff.



The idea that it is somehow a solution is laughable.

storker

biko wrote: »

There is no evidence anyone voted to leave on condition there was a deal.

Actually there is. Brexiteer pre-referendum campaigning that stressed there would be a deal, it would be easy and there was no question of no deal.

Lady Spangles

paw patrol wrote: »

bar a few communists and twitter progressive types who like to judge the past on standards of today - Churchill is held in the highest esteem possible by the UK public.

To say otherwise is just waffle.

I think you need to recognise that the UK public isn't a homogeneous mass incapable of independent thought and speech. As a member of the "UK Public" myself, I don't think I need you tell me what they're like.

Which, at the moment, is all over the frickin place.

Is anybody over in England bringing the Conservative party to court under false and misleading advertising legislation?


Actual anarchists must be looking in awe at the misnomer that is the English Conservative party.

Franz Von Peppercorn II

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's the Leave vote split right down the middle so. Avalanche of seats for Remain parties. Excellent.

Except, unfortunately, the Brexit vote isn’t split. Not as much as remain.

davedanon

Boris's brother Jo Johnson quits as MP!

The wheels are really coming off the clowncar now.

FrancieBrady

Interesting to hear William Waldergrove on Newsnight last night. He was a Minister under Thatcher and Major and is now Provost of Eton.
His opinion was that it is time Britain faces up to it's place in the world...'a mid sized country that used to be a superpower/empire'. Reckons that it is that fantasy that is driving all this. He even suggests giving up their seat on the Security Council.
I wonder how long that will take to filter down to his alumni...of whom he didn't think much off (Cameron)

ancapailldorcha

Deleted User wrote: »

Is anybody over in England bringing the Conservative party to court under false and misleading advertising legislation?


Actual anarchists must be looking in awe at the misnomer that is the English Conservative party.

If you're referring to the Leave campaign, that would be Vote Leave and Leave.EU, not the Conservative party.

rossie1977

Johnson gambled and lost. Will be interesting to see what his next move is.

Deleted User wrote: »

Is anybody over in England bringing the Conservative party to court under false and misleading advertising legislation?


Actual anarchists must be looking in awe at the misnomer that is the English Conservative party.

You would need to bring the media to court too given they have spent 30+ years reporting false stories about the EU.

Yurt2

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Interesting to hear William Waldergrove on Newsnight last night. He was a Minister under Thatcher and Major and is now Provost of Eton.
His opinion was that it is time Britain faces up to it's place in the world...'a mid sized country that used to be a superpower/empire'. Reckons that it is that fantasy that is driving all this. He even suggests giving up their seat on the Security Council.
I wonder how long that will take to filter down to his alumni...of whom he didn't think much off (Cameron)

Eton has a lot to answer for. I met an old Etonian at an event a few years ago. Astonishingly well spoken, and he'd pepper his speech with Latin and French regularly (much like Boris), but there was something very... empty about what he was saying. He had a very refined argot/patter designed to intimidate and impress in equal measure, but very little of what he was saying had any meaning behind it. I made my excuses, headed back to the wine and cheese and left him to his Marcus Aurelius.