Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

Danzy

20Wheel wrote: »

the eu wasnt formed with the us in mind.
my neighbor buying a new car doesnt mean im financially doomed for not being able to do the same.

It's an example illustrating how the Eurozone economy is stagnant.

cryptocurrency

Danzy wrote: »

It's an example illustrating how the Eurozone economy is stagnant.

Stagnant or going backwards.

cryptocurrency

So blockchain and a few agri checks will replace the backstop. That is a complete capitulation by the EU

Danzy

davedanon wrote: »

You keep referring to the Eurozone economy, instead of the EU.


Why is that, I wonder?


Would it be because the EU economy as a whole is almost as big as the US?

The threat to the EU is from the Eurozone.

The wiser EU economy is big and adding more all the time, that does not change the fact that the Eurozone remains in very serious trouble.

Otmar Issing, the Ecbs first chief economist and one of the main architect's of the Euro, a passionate EU supporter, has called it a house of cards that will collapse.

cryptocurrency

Danzy wrote: »

The threat to the EU is from the Eurozone.

The wiser EU economy is big and adding more all the time, that does not change the fact that the Eurozone remains in very serious trouble.

Otmar Issing, the Ecbs first chief economist and one of the main architect's of the Euro, a passionate EU supporter, has called it a house of cards that will collapse.

The threat to the EU is the UK Tiger economy which will be unleashed when free from their protectionist rules

OleRodrigo

The global economy has become a house of cards that could collapse.

It also may not .

It also may be dismantled and rebuilt on the fly, without anyone really noticing.

cryptocurrency

OleRodrigo wrote: »

The global economy has become a house of cards that could collapse.

It also may not .

It also may be dismantled and rebuilt on the fly, without anyone really noticing.

We are at a crossroads. The new generation are useless and lazy and are turning to marxism as they can't be arsed to compete and the EU is pandering to them to hold on to their club. UK is smart enough to look to the east and want to cut loose from the chains and become free marketeers again

Strazdas

cryptocurrency wrote: »

We are at a crossroads. The new generation are useless and lazy and are turning to marxism as they can't be arsed to compete and the EU is pandering to them to hold on to their club. UK is smart enough to look to the east and want to cut loose from the chains and become free marketeers again

This makes no sense : if you have a market of 500m people right on your doorstep, you don't ditch them and start trading with countries 10,000 miles away

The severing of ties with trading partners of 50 years is the most illogical part of Brexit. It would be like a company set up in the 1970s ditching most of its existing customers and suppliers and looking for new ones.

cryptocurrency

Strazdas wrote: »

This makes no sense : if you have a market of 500m people right on your doorstep, you don't ditch them and start trading with countries 10,000 miles away

The severing of ties with trading partners of 50 years is the most illogical part of Brexit. It would be like a company set up in the 1970s ditching most of its existing customers and suppliers and looking for new ones.

They won't be. You will see. The EU is weak and many of its members are tin pot nations.

The UK is equivalent to 19 other member states and the main security, financial and military power in the region.

UK will get their deal in October.

Professor Moriarty

cryptocurrency wrote: »

They won't be. You will see. The EU is weak and many of its members are tin pot nations.

The UK is equivalent to 19 other member states and the main security, financial and military power in the region.

UK will get their deal in October.

There'll be one less after Brexit.

Danzy

cryptocurrency wrote: »

We are at a crossroads. The new generation are useless and lazy and are turning to marxism as they can't be arsed to compete and the EU is pandering to them to hold on to their club. UK is smart enough to look to the east and want to cut loose from the chains and become free marketeers again

Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world.
5 trillion dollar behemoth, with a strong need for imports.

There will never come a time when Britain sells more to them than it does to Ireland.

Proximity matters in trade.

First Up

Danzy wrote:

Proximity matters in trade.

It matters even more when your business is part of a value chain with multiple interdependent parts - as many UK companies are.

cryptocurrency

Danzy wrote: »

Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world.
5 trillion dollar behemoth, with a strong need for imports.

There will never come a time when Britain sells more to them than it does to Ireland.

Proximity matters in trade.

The US is the UKs biggest export

cryptocurrency

Sales to China and India and even Japan to far surpass Ireland soon. China is evens with Ireland and the UK hasn't even started with getting into that market and if it doubles trade to Japan it will also pass Ireland.

You'd expect places like Vietnam to pass Ireland in the coming decades.

An Aussie trade deal will see them leap frog most nations instantly.

road_high

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Sales to China and India and even Japan to far surpass Ireland soon. China is evens with Ireland and the UK hasn't even started with getting into that market and if it doubles trade to Japan it will also pass Ireland.

You'd expect places like Vietnam to pass Ireland in the coming decades.

An Aussie trade deal will see them leap frog most nations instantly.

Christ you have to have something of value that they actually want and need to buy first! Do you think the UK is going to rock up on Nov 1st and suddenly the Chinese and Japanese are going to explode in some kind of pent up demand for poor quality Land Rovers etc (who’s sales incidentally have taken a whalloping in China). You’re either very naive or deluded or both- the UK produces almost nothing that can’t be done better or cheaper elsewhere and it’s been like that now for decades. The UK will be what it’s been for decades- a relatively small and high cost player in a global marketplace

Danzy

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The US is the UKs biggest export

That's is correct, the British export just over double to America what they do to us.

About half the global economy is divided between U.S. China and Japan.

To those 3 Britain exported 100bn of goods, services etc

To little us, it sold approx 30 bn.

Big gap but the first 3 represent near half the global economy.

Promity matters.

Professor Moriarty

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Sales to China and India and even Japan to far surpass Ireland soon. China is evens with Ireland and the UK hasn't even started with getting into that market and if it doubles trade to Japan it will also pass Ireland.

You'd expect places like Vietnam to pass Ireland in the coming decades.

An Aussie trade deal will see them leap frog most nations instantly.

Ironically, Vietnam just signed a trade deal with the EU.

Britain exports 26 billion to Ireland. It exports 650 million to Vietnam. Ireland is 60 miles from Britain. Vietnam is 6000 miles from Britain.

So Britain's exports to Ireland are 40 times greater than its exports to Vietnam. And Vietnam is a 1000 times further away than Ireland.

You haven't a clue.

road_high

Danzy wrote: »

That's is correct, the British export just over double to America what they do to us.

About half the global economy is divided between U.S. China and Japan.

To those 3 Britain exported 100bn of goods, services etc

To little us, it sold approx 30 bn.

Big gap but the first 3 represent near half the global economy.

Promity matters.

A lot of the export output of the UK is processed food and drink which in the main can only go to neighboring countries

cryptocurrency

road_high wrote: »

Christ you have to have something of value that they actually want and need to buy first! Do you think the UK is going to rock up on Nov 1st and suddenly the Chinese and Japanese are going to explode in some kind of pent up demand for poor quality Land Rovers etc (who’s sales incidentally have taken a whalloping in China). You’re either very naive or deluded or both- the UK produces almost nothing that can’t be done better or cheaper elsewhere and it’s been like that now for decades. The UK will be what it’s been for decades- a relatively small and high cost player in a global marketplace

These UK have loads the Chinese want. Have you ever lived in China or traveled the region overall? They are obsessed with brand UK and stick a union jack on it and they love it.

On the luxury goods end they love the royal warrant on anything from gloves to tins of biscuits and this is before you start pumping in the quality services the UK can provide.

The UK, it's history, it's pomp and its whole brand is something the highly aspire too and is almost the only one in Europe that they do.

They know german engineering, french wine and italian fashion but it is the UK that they are obsessed with...from period drama to the royals.

Danzy

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Sales to China and India and even Japan to far surpass Ireland soon. China is evens with Ireland and the UK hasn't even started with getting into that market and if it doubles trade to Japan it will also pass Ireland.

You'd expect places like Vietnam to pass Ireland in the coming decades.

An Aussie trade deal will see them leap frog most nations instantly.

There has been open and favourable trade terms between Britain and places like Japan and Australia for decades at this stage.

It's not going to change much.

No matter the terms the distance is too great.

First Up

Also worth mentioning that the UK's trade with the US is under the terms negotiated by the EU, which will no longer apply after Brexit.

The UK is 2% of US exports and 3% of US imports. The EU is 18% of both. Go figure who has more clout.

This is primary school stuff.

cryptocurrency

road_high wrote: »

A lot of the export output of the UK is processed food and drink which in the main can only go to neighboring countries

Services plus British Beef and Farming products, esp when free of EU regulations

20Wheel

Danzy wrote: »

It's an example illustrating how the Eurozone economy is stagnant.

well heaven forbid.

if eu can bumble through the global credit crisis then it can get through low growth too.

periods of low growth come and go. quality of life in europe is consistently very good.

Tell me how

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Sales to China and India and even Japan to far surpass Ireland soon. China is evens with Ireland and the UK hasn't even started with getting into that market and if it doubles trade to Japan it will also pass Ireland.

You'd expect places like Vietnam to pass Ireland in the coming decades.

An Aussie trade deal will see them leap frog most nations instantly.

Will want to be some trade deal to override the very significant shipping costs which will be involved.

Danzy

cryptocurrency wrote: »

These UK have loads the Chinese want. Have you ever lived in China or traveled the region overall? They are obsessed with brand UK and stick a union jack on it and they love it.

On the luxury goods end they love the royal warrant on anything from gloves to tins of biscuits and this is before you start pumping in the quality services the UK can provide.

The UK, it's history, it's pomp and its whole brand is something the highly aspire too and is almost the only one in Europe that they do.

They know german engineering, french wine and italian fashion but it is the UK that they are obsessed with...from period drama to the royals.

So are the Indians, yet they are the U.K.s 20th largest export, another giant and fast growing economy but one it has very strong links to business and people wise.

It imports about 1/4 what we do.

If all those economies were closer, the potential would be there.
They can still grow their share but it's weighed against them.

cryptocurrency

20Wheel wrote: »

well heaven forbid.

if eu can bumble through the global credit crisis then it can get through low growth too.

periods of low growth come and go. quality of life in europe is consistently very good.

Quality of life has not really progressed. We have more tech from the fast developing regions that may improve our lives while other regions living standards accelerate the EUs just plods along. Something to be very concerned about as it is causing serious disconnect in many nations and a major factor in Brexit.

Ireland was so stable during the crash and now because it was only a short time ago Ireland was the poorest nation in the EU so they still see life everyday as a win....others don't

Padre_Pio

Danzy wrote: »

Japan is the 3rd largest economy in the world.
5 trillion dollar behemoth, with a strong need for imports.

There will never come a time when Britain sells more to them than it does to Ireland.

Proximity matters in trade.

Does Japan want what Britain sell?

I think this is massively overlooked. Plenty of talk of the 100 or so other countries the UK can deal with but what's the point if they can't or don't want to buy.

cryptocurrency

Danzy wrote: »

So are the Indians, yet they are the U.K.s 20th largest export, another giant and fast growing economy but one it has very strong links to business and people wise.

It imports about 1/4 what we do.

If all those economies were closer, the potential would be there.
They can still grow their share but it's weighed against them.

Their very size and speed of growth makes them far more important to deal with the a club if slow, small, stagnant nations on your doorstep.

EU reminds me of China Circ 1800s when it looked in wards even when so importaant and huge...the rest is history...the lost century.

20Wheel

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Quality of life has not really progressed. We have more tech from the fast developing regions that may improve our lives while other regions living standards accelerate the EUs just plods along. Something to be very concerned about as it is causing serious disconnect in many nations and a major factor in Brexit.

Ireland was so stable during the crash and now because it was only a short time ago Ireland was the poorest nation in the EU so they still see life everyday as a win....others don't

it certainly has progressed in eastern europe.

and again, don't worry about eu standards relative to others, the eu wasn't formed with the intention of being better than others.

if everyone in peru becomes a billionaire, guess what ... its not going to make much of a difference to you or me.

cryptocurrency

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Does Japan want what Britain sell?

I think this is massively overlooked. Plenty of talk of the 100 or so other countries the UK can deal with but what's the point if they can't or don't want to buy.

Japan is a good target but lets be honest, its all about China and they are nuts about the British...from its Universities, culture, royals and history to buying up its real estate and being the sponsor on every football club because they they the nation watches its every move back home.