Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

briany

FunLover18 wrote: »

I don't think he can do that once the extension has been granted. It would be extremely bad form. He said yesterday that if all requirements were met for the Benn legislation he wouldn't ask for an extension anyway.

Bad form has pretty much defined his entire premiership so far, though. There's barely any good form to even compare it against. So I think it would be more just true to form to pull anything he can think of, no matter how underhanded.

FunLover18

briany wrote: »

Bad form has pretty much defined his entire premiership so far, though. There's barely any good form to even compare it against. So I think it would be more just true to form to pull anything he can think of, no matter how underhanded.

And he's got away with it in Britain but we're talking about pissing off an economic bloc of 27 countries with whom he would eventually hope to make some form of trade deal. Not to mention every other country in the world who would see this duplicitous behaviour.

26000 Elephants

In a word - Corbyn.

briany

FunLover18 wrote: »

And he's got away with it in Britain but we're talking about pissing off an economic bloc of 27 countries with whom he would eventually hope to make some form of trade deal. Not to mention every other country in the world who would see this duplicitous behaviour.

It's not like the EU being pissed off is an event yet to occur. The EU seems plenty annoyed already.

This current extension, I believe, gave the UK the option of cutting the arrangement short if the UK came to a consensus around that course of action, which it didn't. Perhaps a further extension might require the UK to make a more definite commitment. In that case, yes, it would make subsequent trade negotiations much more difficult.

FrancieBrady

joseywhales wrote: »

Surely the EU will not grant an extension until a GE or referendum is scheduled

This is the pathetic nature of the whole thing. They are stripping their political system bare and it will not improve the situation they have gotten themselves into one iota. We will still be there waiting for them to sign on the dotted line when they are finally done.

briany

FrancieBrady wrote: »

This is the pathetic nature of the whole thing. They are stripping their political system bare and it will not improve the situation they have gotten themselves into one iota. We will still be there waiting for them to sign on the dotted line when they are finally done.

So,

> The opposition won't agree until an extension until an extension is delivered.

> The EU won't grant an extension until a GE is scheduled.

That would be a fitting cherry on the farce cake.

FunLover18

briany wrote: »

It's not like the EU being pissed off is an event yet to occur. The EU seems plenty annoyed already.

This current extension, I believe, gave the UK the option of cutting the arrangement short if the UK came to a consensus around that course of action, which it didn't. Perhaps a further extension might require the UK to make a more definite commitment. In that case, yes, it would make subsequent trade negotiations much more difficult.

They are pissed off but mainly because of things Britain hasn't done, like ratified the WA they negotiated. They're also frustrated. But Britain just storming out having been granted an extension would be a massive diplomatic affront after all the work the EU has put in and the patience they've demonstrated thus far.

Professor Moriarty

FunLover18 wrote: »

They are pissed off but mainly because of things Britain hasn't done, like ratified the WA they negotiated. They're also frustrated. But Britain just storming out having been granted an extension would be a massive diplomatic affront after all the work the EU has put in and the patience they've demonstrated thus far.

The C4 political editor was being interviewed today. According to him, EU negotiators consider this to be a distinct possibility - that Johnson will literally flounce out of negotiations as a deliberate ploy to blame the EU.

FunLover18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The C4 political editor was being interviewed today. According to him, EU negotiators consider this to be a distinct possibility - that Johnson will literally flounce out of negotiations as a deliberate ploy to blame the EU.

I was going to say I don't know how he could blame the EU but of course he could and of course Brexiters would believe him. :rolleyes:

FrancieBrady

FunLover18 wrote: »

I was going to say I don't know how he could blame the EU but of course he could and of course Brexiters would believe him. :rolleyes:

They have been blaming the EU since before the there was even an EC.

Padre_Pio

And when Britain suffers as a result of Brexit, the EU will again be blamed for not playing nice and agreeing to unilateral trade deals.

threeball

briany wrote: »

All Boris has to do, if he wants his no-deal Brexit is go to Brussels, get the extension (if it's going), come back and say, "OK, now general election?" and then as soon as Labour agree, he can pivot his campaign to, "OK, I know we didn't deliver Brexit on the 31st, but if the people vote in a Conservative majority now, we pledge to immediately go to Brussels with the intention of quitting the EU forthwith."

This being predicated on the fact that the UK could always have quit the EU in these extension periods, as far as I know, they just never had the parliamentary majority for it. However, if the Conservatives had a more 'ideologically pure' parliamentary party, then they could get this over the line.

That's assuming that all the Tories returned are brexiteers when it's perfectly obvious that's not the case so not all of them will back a no deal brexit and we're back to square one.

In fairness Corbyns plan of putting a brexit plan before the people and voting leave or remain based on that is the only hope of sorting this bar a crash out. The only issue is that would require a deal to be struck with the EU before an option could be put to the people, so another 6 months minimum.

FrancieBrady

threeball wrote: »

That's assuming that all the Tories returned are brexiteers when it's perfectly obvious that's not the case so not all of them will back a no deal brexit and we're back to square one.

In fairness Corbyns plan of putting a brexit plan before the people and voting leave or remain based on that is the only hope of sorting this bar a crash out. The only issue is that would require a deal to be struck with the EU before an option could be put to the people, so another 6 months minimum.

No Deal - Crash Out etc will sort nothing only the act of leaving. They still need a deal and we will still be there with the dotted line waiting for them.

Danzy

threeball wrote: »

That's assuming that all the Tories returned are brexiteers when it's perfectly obvious that's not the case so not all of them will back a no deal brexit and we're back to square one.

In fairness Corbyns plan of putting a brexit plan before the people and voting leave or remain based on that is the only hope of sorting this bar a crash out. The only issue is that would require a deal to be struck with the EU before an option could be put to the people, so another 6 months minimum.

Most Tory MPs ifirc voted for Remain, majority anyway.

The Remain camp was funded by a whose who of Tory donors.

The Remain camp was led and dominated by George Osborne and Cameron.

The hard Brexit wing of the Tories is less than 40 Mps.

threeball

Danzy wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

That's assuming that all the Tories returned are brexiteers when it's perfectly obvious that's not the case so not all of them will back a no deal brexit and we're back to square one.

In fairness Corbyns plan of putting a brexit plan before the people and voting leave or remain based on that is the only hope of sorting this bar a crash out. The only issue is that would require a deal to be struck with the EU before an option could be put to the people, so another 6 months minimum.

Most Tory MPs ifirc voted for Remain, majority anyway.

The Remain camp was funded by a whose who of Tory donors.

The Remain camp was led and dominated by George Osborne and Cameron.

The hard Brexit wing of the Tories is less than 40 Mps.

That's my point. So even if an election is called and somehow Boris wins it we're still no further down the line because not even his own party want a crash out brexit. Boris and co must have been promised some pretty sweet deals by well heeled people to get this thing over the line. I wonder was that why he wrote his famous articles for and against. Perhaps he was using them as a bargaining chip.

RobMc59

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And when Britain suffers as a result of Brexit, the EU will again be blamed for not playing nice and agreeing to unilateral trade deals.

I believe the opinion of many people who voted to leave has changed- its obvious the UK public were lied to,although the sorry state of the political system has been hideously exposed-those blaming the EU and so called 'anti democracy'remainers are becoming increasingly desperate imo.

markodaly

Bannasidhe wrote: »

The UK and France are two different countries with very different histories, politics, and composition. For a start France was invaded and occupied twice during the first half of the last century. England hasn't been invaded since 1066. They have no tradition of 'resistance'. They do not have the same view of taking to the streets as the French have - it's almost considered a civic duty there.

Therein they are different like I said.
If Brexit was happening in France, there would be something short of civil war.

Boggles

Danzy wrote: »

Most polls have the Tories 7 to 10 points ahead.

We have to go back a few years before a poll was anyway accurate in the UK.

In 2017 most polls had them ahead 15+ points.

begsbyOnaTrain

Boggles wrote: »

We have to go back a few years before a poll was anyway accurate in the UK.

Nah, not at all. Polls projections for by-elections and the Euros were well in line with what delivered. If you're referring to the percentage differences between the parties that's the beauty of FPTP. Seat projections are where it's at.

Peregrinus

Boggles wrote: »

We have to go back a few years before a poll was anyway accurate in the UK.

In 2017 most polls had them ahead 15+ points.

No. The opinion polls weren't inaccurate. People just treated them (wrongly) as a prediction of future events.

Check out this graphic:


The vertical black line marks the date on which the general election was called. you can see the movements in people's voting intentions as the campaign progressed. Initially there's a fillip for the Tories at the expense of UKIP, but then Labour starts an inexorable climb, initially at the expense of the Lib Dems but, as the hapless Tory campaign progresses, picking up votes also from the Tories and what remains of the UKIP vote. As the campaign goes on and Labour, initially written off, begins to look like a conceivable winner, this trend increases - success breeding success.

The final opinion polls, published on the day before polling, put the Tories in the range 39-46%; they got 43.5% (all figures GB only). The range for Labour was 34-41%; they got 41%.

Remember, the question typically asked in an opinion poll is "if there were an election tomorrow, who would you vote for?" But there typically isn't an election the following day. There may be an election weeks or months later; if people vote differently then, it doesn't necessarily mean that the opinion poll was inaccurate; it more likely means that people's voting intentions changed in response to events that happened in the meantime. And since the whole point of an election campaign is to change people's voting intentions, that's not a very surprising thing to happen.

26000 Elephants

threeball wrote: »

That's my point. So even if an election is called and somehow Boris wins it we're still no further down the line because not even his own party want a crash out brexit. Boris and co must have been promised some pretty sweet deals by well heeled people to get this thing over the line. I wonder was that why he wrote his famous articles for and against. Perhaps he was using them as a bargaining chip.

The payback for Boris was Number 10. That was his target, and he gambled that a referendum loss for Cameron was his most direct route. The semantics of Brexit or Remain were of no importance to him. Hence the 2 articles.

As Cameron said, "Boris assured me that Brexit would be crushed like a 'frog under the harrow'".

threeball

26000 Elephants wrote: »

The payback for Boris was Number 10. That was his target, and he gambled that a referendum loss for Cameron was his most direct route. The semantics of Brexit or Remain were of no importance to him. Hence the 2 articles.

As Cameron said, "Boris assured me that Brexit would be crushed like a 'frog under the harrow'".

Not much point getting to number 10 only to become the shortest tenure prime minister in living memory, be pilloried from all sides and forever tarnished by the absolute clusterfcuk that is brexit. May was another power hungry idiot who found that out the hard way. Cameron was sensible enough to know it was all heading downhill so he got out of the barrel.

Bannasidhe

threeball wrote: »

Not much point getting to number 10 only to become the shortest tenure prime minister in living memory, be pilloried from all sides and forever tarnished by the absolute clusterfcuk that is brexit. May was another power hungry idiot who found that out the hard way. Cameron was sensible enough to know it was all heading downhill so he got out of the barrel.

TBH I don't think May was especially power hungry - or at least that was not her motivation. I think she was Mary Poppinsish. She thought she should do her duty and save the party by steering them through the difficult times and the way to do that was to spit spot, no nonsense, supernanny them - and brook no backchat. It worked for Thatcher.
But May is no Thatcher just as Johnson is no Churchill. I do think Johnson is hungry for power but for the sake of having power - he has no idea what he wants to actually do with it.

threeball

Bannasidhe wrote: »

TBH I don't think May was especially power hungry - or at least that was not her motivation. I think she was Mary Poppinsish. She thought she should do her duty and save the party by steering them through the difficult times and the way to do that was to spit spot, no nonsense, supernanny them - and brook no backchat. It worked for Thatcher.
But May is no Thatcher just as Johnson is no Churchill. I do think Johnson is hungry for power but for the sake of having power - he has no idea what he wants to actually do with it.

But surely anyone with common sense would stand back in Mays position and say this is a no win situation. Any way I go about this I will be simply torn asunder. You have a country virtually split down the middle evenly for remain and leave and you have a parliament heavily in favour of remain trying to push through a leave agenda.

Johnson has quickly found out that there is no real power as prime minister as Parliament can neuter you pretty quickly if they feel like it. The real power in the opportunities it opens up for you later in who you meet and the access they give you. Being prime minister is pointless unless
A. you have a majority
and
B. The majority of the majority are on your side

begsbyOnaTrain

I think this is the only location by-election since all the prorouge carry-on. Look at that swing to the Tories!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1177463126729428992


Edit: My bad, there's more results available at that Twitter account

Bannasidhe

threeball wrote: »

But surely anyone with common sense would stand back in Mays position and say this is a no win situation. Any way I go about this I will be simply torn asunder. You have a country virtually split down the middle evenly for remain and leave and you have a parliament heavily in favour of remain trying to push through a leave agenda.

Johnson has quickly found out that there is no real power as prime minister as Parliament can neuter you pretty quickly if they feel like it. The real power in the opportunities it opens up for you later in who you meet and the access they give you. Being prime minister is pointless unless
A. you have a majority
and
B. The majority of the majority are on your side

Ah, anyone with a bit of common sense would but if your head is filled with notions about 'doing one's duty', 'duty before self', 'stiff upper lip', 'once more into the breach', 'for England and St George!' and all that other hooorah Enid Blyton/Rudyard Kipling jolly hockey sticks nonsense than May's actions make a weird kind of sense. Her failing was that in her arrogance she thought she could do it. As I said, she thought she could Thatcher.

markodaly

begsbyOnaTrain wrote: »

I think this is the only location by-election since all the prorouge carry-on. Look at that swing to the Tories!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1177463126729428992


Edit: My bad, there's more results available at that Twitter account

I think they are council election results.

But the trend is the following.

Labour appears to be down.
Lib Dems appear to be up.
SNP will gain in Scotland
Tory will lose in Scotland
But....
Tories appear to be holding firm by all accounts.

As amazing as it sounds, Boris will come back with an increased majority. Surely if that happens, Brexit is a forgone conclusion and Corbyn will have to go, consigned to the history books as one of the worst party leaders of all time.

There will be so much riding on the upcoming GE which will probably be in November.

tigger123

markodaly wrote: »

I think they are council election results.

But the trend is the following.

Labour appears to be down.
Lib Dems appear to be up.
SNP will gain in Scotland
Tory will lose in Scotland
But....
Tories appear to be holding firm by all accounts.

As amazing as it sounds, Boris will come back with an increased majority. Surely if that happens, Brexit is a forgone conclusion and Corbyn will have to go, consigned to the history books as one of the worst party leaders of all time.

There will be so much riding on the upcoming GE which will probably be in November.

If the Tory party lose 12 or 13 seats in Scotland, and hold firm in the UK (which in of itself is doubtful) and they don't have a current majority, how will Boris come back with an increased majority? Are you familiar with the arithmetic?

FrancieBrady

tigger123 wrote: »

If the Tory party lose 12 or 13 seats in Scotland, and hold firm in the UK (which in of itself is doubtful) and they don't have a current majority, how will Boris come back with an increased majority? Are you familiar with the arithmetic?

Boris is in a bit of a bind if he doesn't exit before an election with the Brexit Party threatening to run candidates against Tories. There are no givens if they go to election, things could swing any which way very quickly.

begsbyOnaTrain

tigger123 wrote: »

If the Tory party lose 12 or 13 seats in Scotland, and hold firm in the UK (which in of itself is doubtful) and they don't have a current majority, how will Boris come back with an increased majority? Are you familiar with the arithmetic?

I posted this YouGov poll and seat extrapolation yesterday that you might find interesting - https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=19