Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

tigger123

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Boris is in a bit of a bind if he doesn't exit before an election with the Brexit Party threatening to run candidates against Tories. There are no givens if they go to election, things could swing any which way very quickly.

God knows what's going to happen in the next few weeks. Plenty of twists left!

tigger123

begsbyOnaTrain wrote: »

I posted this YouGov poll and seat extrapolation yesterday that you might find interesting - https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=19

That website isn't great on mobile, but will definitely check it out later, cheers!

threeball

markodaly wrote: »

I think they are council election results.

But the trend is the following.

Labour appears to be down.
Lib Dems appear to be up.
SNP will gain in Scotland
Tory will lose in Scotland
But....
Tories appear to be holding firm by all accounts.

As amazing as it sounds, Boris will come back with an increased majority. Surely if that happens, Brexit is a forgone conclusion and Corbyn will have to go, consigned to the history books as one of the worst party leaders of all time.

There will be so much riding on the upcoming GE which will probably be in November.

Again you're assuming that all Tories are Brexiteers which is well known not to be the case. Even the Tories in the house of Lords are largely remainers. The Tories may get more seats but if even 60% want to see a no deal brexit that would be the upper end.

threeball

begsbyOnaTrain wrote: »

I posted this YouGov poll and seat extrapolation yesterday that you might find interesting - https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177166970636132352?s=19

14% of the vote for Brexit party and zero seats thats hardly likely?

Tories at 30% will get 348 according to that

markodaly

tigger123 wrote: »

If the Tory party lose 12 or 13 seats in Scotland, and hold firm in the UK (which in of itself is doubtful) and they don't have a current majority, how will Boris come back with an increased majority? Are you familiar with the arithmetic?

If Labour were at 41% at the GE and are now polling at 22% how are they going to hold on to all their seats come the GE?

The Tories can more than make up for their losses in Scotland with that in England, especially now they have rebranded themselves as an English nationalist party.

ohnonotgmail

threeball wrote: »

14% of the vote for Brexit party and zero seats thats hardly likely?

Tories at 30% will get 348 according to that

in a FPTP system it is not impossible.

markodaly

threeball wrote: »

Again you're assuming that all Tories are Brexiteers which is well known not to be the case. Even the Tories in the house of Lords are largely remainers. The Tories may get more seats but if even 60% want to see a no deal brexit that would be the upper end.

That appears to be a hope alright, that the one nation type Torries pull the rug from under Boris. But, many of them are de-selected for the upcoming GE.

Its all up in the air at the moment, how it will turn out.

MadYaker

threeball wrote: »

14% of the vote for Brexit party and zero seats thats hardly likely?

Tories at 30% will get 348 according to that

They got 12.5% in the last election and no seats. Most of the votes they get are in safe Tory constituencies.

davedanon

The apparent support for the Tories is mystifying, but it's not at all certain it will translate into actual votes come an election. Boris has ensured the Tories will lose many seats in Scotland, and in the South-west, with his treatment of the rebel Tory MPs. But short-Cummings's cunning plan is that they will more than make up for these losses by picking up seats in Labour Leave areas. It's an enormous gamble.

begsbyOnaTrain

threeball wrote: »

14% of the vote for Brexit party and zero seats thats hardly likely?

Tories at 30% will get 348 according to that

UKIP got 12% of votes in 2015 and no seats

quokula

davedanon wrote: »

The apparent support for the Tories is mystifying, but it's not at all certain it will translate into actual votes come an election. Boris has ensured the Tories will lose many seats in Scotland, and in the South-west, with his treatment of the rebel Tory MPs. But short-Cummings's cunning plan is that they will more than make up for these losses by picking up seats in Labour Leave areas. It's an enormous gamble.

Don't undersestimate the power of the Tory supporting media in the UK. They get nothing like the quality of factual coverage we get here.

However, Labour were polling equally poorly prior to the 2017 election. Once an election is officially on there are rules in place where news organisations need to give equal coverage to the different parties. When this happens Labour make gains and the Conservatives make losses.

FrancieBrady

begsbyOnaTrain wrote: »

UKIP got 12% of votes in 2015 and no seats

The problem for Boris is not them or the Brexit Party getting seats but queering the patch for everyone else.

ohnonotgmail

Not strictly brexit related but video of Michael Gove in the commons the other day. A bit of light relief is always welcome

https://twitter.com/josephballs_/status/1177094193170255872

briany

threeball wrote: »

That's assuming that all the Tories returned are brexiteers when it's perfectly obvious that's not the case so not all of them will back a no deal brexit and we're back to square one.

In fairness Corbyns plan of putting a brexit plan before the people and voting leave or remain based on that is the only hope of sorting this bar a crash out. The only issue is that would require a deal to be struck with the EU before an option could be put to the people, so another 6 months minimum.

If, and I do stress if, current polling is correct, then the Conservatives would gain a parliamentary majority large enough to offset the defections, or quite close at least. That's not to mention certain sitting MPs who may find a further general election very tough if they support Remain, but their constituency voted Leave, and their constituency remains of that mind. Over 400 UK constituencies had a majority Leave vote - some narrow, some large. It will be really interesting to see how this has changed since and how that informs a GE.

Voltex

John Major's thoughts on Cummings strategy to have the UK out by October 31st

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/106861/sir-john-major-warns-boris-johnson-could


If this did play out, it'd be a dark day for a modern parliamentary democracy like the UK and setting a dangerous precedent.

FrancieBrady

:D The campaign that just keeps giving.


https://twitter.com/kenty227/status/1177605313207427072?fbclid=IwAR1YJG0J5eVW_ogGwqpoxb5hOrvsHB2rsAvf2pEi5CZj0SO_GCF79R7Lluo

McMurphy

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Not strictly brexit related but video of Michael Gove in the commons the other day. A bit of light relief is always welcome

https://twitter.com/josephballs_/status/1177094193170255872

Was he at the sherry or what, holy fcuk.

McMurphy

FrancieBrady wrote: »

:D The campaign that just keeps giving.


https://twitter.com/kenty227/status/1177605313207427072?fbclid=IwAR1YJG0J5eVW_ogGwqpoxb5hOrvsHB2rsAvf2pEi5CZj0SO_GCF79R7Lluo

Tea on laptop screen and the dog looking at me in a WTF kind of way.

section4

A majority of all constituencies voted to leave true
A majority of MPs voted to remain
The people voted to leave
The MPs don't want to leave ,

The SNP voters are not all remainers
30% of SNP voters, that's N sturgeon voters voted to leave

So who knows how it will play out in Scotland ,
How will SNP leavers vote now

cryptocurrency

Brexit is nailed on to happen now. Been listening to LBC this morning and spend the last few days in leafy Herts. It's happening; the sooner Leo takes the coming humiliation of the back down on the chin the sooner that plans can be made on the future relationship.

Padre_Pio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Brexit is nailed on to happen now. Been listening to LBC this morning and spend the last few days in leafy Herts. It's happening; the sooner Leo takes the coming humiliation of the back down on the chin the sooner that plans can be made on the future relationship.

Sure sure, if no deal happens it is 100% the fault of the English.

FunLover18

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Brexit is nailed on to happen now. Been listening to LBC this morning and spend the last few days in leafy Herts. It's happening; the sooner Leo takes the coming humiliation of the back down on the chin the sooner that plans can be made on the future relationship.

"Brexit is nailed on to happen" means nothing. Which version?

SeaBreezes

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Brexit is nailed on to happen now. Been listening to LBC this morning and spend the last few days in leafy Herts. It's happening; the sooner Leo takes the coming humiliation of the back down on the chin the sooner that plans can be made on the future relationship.

Ahhh crypto you were very quiet the last few days... was it the toe curling UN speech, or the affair, or Boris sister explaining he was only doing this to make billionaires richer, or Barclays letter to Michel begging for help cause their not ready, after spending the week trying to make mini deals around the EU and being rebuffed? Speaking Of backdowns... was it all the shame that you stayed away? A mortifying week for the pro-Brexiteers...

FrancieBrady

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Brexit is nailed on to happen now. Been listening to LBC this morning and spend the last few days in leafy Herts. It's happening; the sooner Leo takes the coming humiliation of the back down on the chin the sooner that plans can be made on the future relationship.

'When' is it going to happen? (referring to the title of the thread)

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Brexit is nailed on to happen now. Been listening to LBC this morning and spend the last few days in leafy Herts. It's happening; the sooner Leo takes the coming humiliation of the back down on the chin the sooner that plans can be made on the future relationship.

Been away for a while and not reading the thread but did we ever get your essay?
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=111240260&postcount=5365

J Mysterio

Sad.

https://twitter.com/charliemale/status/1178351956500324352

ancapailldorcha

I've been to Seaford. Lovely spot. Didn't think it had too many fascists.

Quantum Erasure

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/charliemale/status/1178351956500324352

.

[I STRONGLY advise all Protests should be ...]
Videoed on a mobile phone to capture any such behaviour rather than retaliating.

#StaySafeOnProtests

J Mysterio

Tory Party Conference
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1178343772972896259

Danzy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've been to Seaford. Lovely spot. Didn't think it had too many fascists.

Apart from the day you were there is say none.

Seriously though, what are you on about?