Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

davedanon

davedanon wrote: »

That is to say, the 'eurozone economy' is smaller, conveniently enough for comparison purposes with the US.

And anyone else feel they're living in an 'economic disaster'?

Growth in the eurozone is slowing and in Germany's case, slipped in to a negative last quarter.

Generally low growth globally and potential trade wars between both the US and the EU and the US and China mean that pretty much every economic prediction at the moment is that we have a difficult time ahead of us.

davedanon

Aegir wrote: »

Growth in the eurozone is slowing and in Germany's case, slipped in to a negative last quarter.

Generally low growth globally and potential trade wars between both the US and the EU and the US and China mean that pretty much every economic prediction at the moment is that we have a difficult time ahead of us.

Like you say. Global problems. I'd still rather be in the big leaky tent, than the little leaky tent.

20silkcut

Aegir wrote: »

Euroscepticism comes from many different avenues and from both ends of the political spectrum.

There are free trade fanatics like Priti Patel and Steve Baker that claim it actually stifles free trade, by creating a protectionist bloc and there are extreme left wingers, like People Before Profit, that claim it facilitates globalism and is just a tool to benefit the rich.

Yes but the main thrust of Euro scepticism comes from the Tory party.
Labour euro scepticism effectively died in the early 80’s after thatchers landslide election after the falklands war. An election in which labours anti Europe stance was ridiculed.
During the mid 80’s it was only nutters like Enoch Powell and a few labour dinosaurs that were carrying the show.
Thatcher re-energised the whole movement with her speech in Bruges in 1988 and throughout the 90’s they plagued the government of John major, to the point where he re-signed and stood again as leader against John redwood in 1995 in a very high risk cameronesque manoeuvre. After that they were joined by farage and Ukip in this century to the point that they have now fully taken over the Tory party.
While lexiteers are a significant demographic the bulk of the brexit movement and its most charismatic leaders and the majority of its supporters are coming from the right wing and generally prosperous areas of rural white England.

Spanish Eyes

I doubt there will be a No Deal Brexit.

Bottom line for me is UK could have left without a deal anytime from the date of the referendum up to now, but they seem to be reluctant to do this, and I often wonder why.

The DUP are becoming more idiotic by the day, but what else is new? The voices of business and everyone else are not heard up there anymore.

I suppose SF and Alliance and UUP and whomever else are not intervening whilst their opponents are making tits of themselves. We shall see.

Anyway back to my original point, why did UK not leave at any point in the last three years? This needs to be made a top question. Not because I asked, but honestly they really don't want to go do they?

RobMc59

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I doubt there will be a No Deal Brexit.

Bottom line for me is UK could have left without a deal anytime from the date of the referendum up to now, but they seem to be reluctant to do this, and I often wonder why.

The DUP are becoming more idiotic by the day, but what else is new? The voices of business and everyone else are not heard up there anymore.

I suppose SF and Alliance and UUP and whomever else are not intervening whilst their opponents are making tits of themselves. We shall see.

Anyway back to my original point, why did UK not leave at any point in the last three years? This needs to be made a top question. Not because I asked, but honestly they really don't want to go do they?

The hard brexiteers do want to leave but they want to have their cake and eat it by cherry picking things like seamless trade and access to the European market without having any obligation to the EU in return.

Spanish Eyes

RobMc59 wrote: »

The hard brexiteers do want to leave but they want to have their cake and eat it by cherry picking things like seamless trade and access to the European market without having any obligation to the EU in return.

They should have realised by now that you are either a member or not. No wonder the EU is sceptical of the UK angle on this.

So they don't want to leave because they want all the benefits of EU, but want to Leave anyway with no deal. I am baffled by this TBH as are many others I suppose.

I wonder what the EU negotiators think of this approach.

Norway model might be the best outcome for them now. Whoa!

20silkcut

20silkcut wrote: »

Yes but the main thrust of Euro scepticism comes from the Tory party.
Labour euro scepticism effectively died in the early 80’s after thatchers landslide election after the falklands war. An election in which labours anti Europe stance was ridiculed.
During the mid 80’s it was only nutters like Enoch Powell and a few labour dinosaurs that were carrying the show.
Thatcher re-energised the whole movement with her speech in Bruges in 1988 and throughout the 90’s they plagued the government of John major, to the point where he re-signed and stood again as leader against John redwood in 1995 in a very high risk cameronesque manoeuvre. After that they were joined by farage and Ukip in this century to the point that they have now fully taken over the Tory party.
While lexiteers are a significant demographic the bulk of the brexit movement and its most charismatic leaders and the majority of its supporters are coming from the right wing and generally prosperous areas of rural white England.

you should read up on the history of UKIP, it may surprise you. It was formed by a former Liberal MP and the first "High Profile" member was ex Labour MP Robert Kilroy Silk.

To say UKIP's supporters come from prosperous white rural England is rubbish. That's classic left wing blaming the right wing for something bad. It is far more nuanced than that.

Some the highest remain votes came form the most affluent areas of London, whereas some the highest leave votes came from some fairly poor areas. If you take areas like Mansfield, for example, that was always a very strong labour seat, a safe seat in fact. Mansfield had one of the highest leaves votes in the UK and Labour lost it to the conservatives in the 2017 election.

maebee

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s the mad part.

On their effing wedding day

What the actual fvck

Yep, on what is supposed to be the happiest day of your life your main interest is sectarianism and raising your hands in the air in triumphalism. Incredible.

When myself and himself tied the knot in '86, it's safe to say that Ian Paisley and the Billy Boys were a million miles from our thoughts. Morons. I hope they lose their jobs over this.

Danzy

davedanon wrote: »

That is to say, the 'eurozone economy' is smaller, conveniently enough for comparison purposes with the US.

And anyone else feel they're living in an 'economic disaster'?

10 years ago the Eurozone and U.S. economy were of a similar size. America is now 50% bigger.

Staunch supporters of the EU, founding members of the Eurozone are talking about this.

Don't be so tribal

Imreoir2

Danzy wrote: »

10 years ago the Eurozone and U.S. economy were of a similar size. America is now 50% bigger.

Staunch supporters of the EU, founding members of the Eurozone are talking about this.

Don't be so tribal

In 2010 the Eurozone was 16% smaller than the US, in 2018 it was 34% smaller. That is a change of 18%.

That said, the Irish economey is 70% bigger than it was in 2010 while the US economey is only 37% bigger than it was, so the US is really strugelling compared to us, not to mention that the US is slowing down quite a bit at the moment.

Junkyard Tom

Danzy wrote: »

10 years ago the Eurozone and U.S. economy were of a similar size. America is now 50% bigger.

How are these figures arrived at? According to this source the EU has a larger economic output than the US.

1. China $25.3 trillion
2. EU $22 trillion
3. USA $20.5 trillion

Also quality of life for the average person in the EU must be considerably higher than the US.

Peregrinus

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

How are these figures arrived at? According to this source the EU has a larger economic output than the US.

The EU is not the Eurozone.

But, yeah, there are various bases on which comparisons of this kind can be made, and there is some scope for people to choose a basis that yields the result that they want.

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Also quality of life for the average person in the EU must be considerably higher than the US.

Crucially depends on how you measure quality of life and, again, there is scope to measure this in a way designed to produce the answer that you want.

threeball

Danzy wrote: »

davedanon wrote: »

That is to say, the 'eurozone economy' is smaller, conveniently enough for comparison purposes with the US.

And anyone else feel they're living in an 'economic disaster'?

10 years ago the Eurozone and U.S. economy were of a similar size. America is now 50% bigger.

Staunch supporters of the EU, founding members of the Eurozone are talking about this.

Don't be so tribal

The EU invests in its weaker states and eventually they become contributing states with large buying power. The US ignores the poorer areas of the country. It actually exploits them and makes them weaker for short term gain. So whilst this is profitable in the short term it's no sustainable. Have a look at what they've done to towns like Flint. It's like a massive social experiment. Poisoned water, war games in a occupied city, cannon fodder for follies in the middle East. Returning vets have said the conditions were better in wartime Iraq.

seamus

Peregrinus wrote: »

The EU is not the Eurozone.

But, yeah, there are various bases on which comparisons of this kind can be made, and there is some scope for people to choose a basis that yields the result that they want.

That's the thing. It doesn't really make sense to measure the "eurozone" as a single economic entity, because it's not. The economic balance of the eurozone is very much dependent on what the entire EU does, not just the members within the eurozone.

For the purposes of currency speculation, and perhaps stock market speculation, then taking the eurozone as a single entity may be useful. But neither are bellweathers of economic health.

Like you say, one can cherrypick the source data to arrive at whatever conclusion one likes.

20silkcut

Aegir wrote: »

you should read up on the history of UKIP, it may surprise you. It was formed by a former Liberal MP and the first "High Profile" member was ex Labour MP Robert Kilroy Silk.

To say UKIP's supporters come from prosperous white rural England is rubbish. That's classic left wing blaming the right wing for something bad. It is far more nuanced than that.

Some the highest remain votes came form the most affluent areas of London, whereas some the highest leave votes came from some fairly poor areas. If you take areas like Mansfield, for example, that was always a very strong labour seat, a safe seat in fact. Mansfield had one of the highest leaves votes in the UK and Labour lost it to the conservatives in the 2017 election.

Still stand by my assertion that euro scepticism became a formidable force from within the Tory party in the late 80’s early 90’s. The party of business the party of rural white England.
Backed by MPs who were representing well off constituencies.
Farage is very much appealing to this constituency as well and has distanced himself completely from UKIP to appeal to this more middle class brexiteer.
If that vote collapsed Brexit is finished.
The founding of UKIP is neither here nor there when they moved more to this middle ground under farage they prospered.
Now that they are a glorified football hooligan firm they are nowhere.

CPTM

One suggestion I haven't really seen (not that I'd want to see it) is why do we need a border at all if there are two customs unions? I know it's international law to man your border but there isn't a high wall around every border in the world? Have it so that there are rules that businesses must follow when bringing goods from one side of the border to the other and if they break those rules there are harsh penalties for them. It's illegal to break red lights when driving but we don't have someone at every set of traffic lights making sure it doesn't happen. We just have consequences which deter people from doing it. I'm just surprised it hasn't been talked about

Peregrinus

CPTM wrote: »

One suggestion I haven't really seen (not that I'd want to see it) is why do we need a border at all if there are two customs unions? I know it's international law to man your border but there isn't a high wall around every border in the world? Have it so that there are rules that businesses must follow when bringing goods from one side of the border to the other and if they break those rules there are harsh penalties for them. It's illegal to break red lights when driving but we don't have someone at every set of traffic lights making sure it doesn't happen. We just have consequences which deter people from doing it. I'm just surprised it hasn't been talked about

The thing is, you do actually need mechanisms for detecting the breaches of the rules, and imposing the resulting penalties. And it's those mechanisms which harden the border. It doesn't matter whether they take the form of inspections and other processes at the border itself, or some other form; their hardening effect is the same.

CPTM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The thing is, you do actually need mechanisms for detecting the breaches of the rules, and imposing the resulting penalties. And it's those mechanisms which harden the border. It doesn't matter whether they take the form of inspections and other processes at the border itself, or some other form; their hardening effect is the same.

Yes that's the argument against. But realistically, do we really need those mechanisms?! What if there were harsh penalties and fines against businesses or taking away their ability to do business in whichever union they've broken the law? I feel like the deterrent would work in 95% of cases and the other 5% would be small time stuff. The key thing is that businesses are different to people in that all goods and purchases and sales need to be documented and so can therefore be followed back to the point of origin.

It requires thinking outside the box a bit but saying as deterrents are the main way of enforcing law these days it's not beyond reason to consider how it could work.

Peregrinus

CPTM wrote: »

Yes that's the argument against. But realistically, do we really need those mechanisms?! What if there were harsh penalties and fines against businesses or taking away their ability to do business in whichever union they've broken the law?. . .

Then those harsh penalties and fines would be the mechanism. And, together with the compliance requirements, inspections, audits, etc required to detect the breaches and impose the penalties, they would have exactly the same constraining and restraining effect on cross-border trade as any other mechanism for imposing tariffs and controls on cross border trade.

Don't fall for the brexiter nonsense that "hard border" only means a stripey pole across the road at the exact point of the relevant county boundary, and a man in a peaked cap waving you down. The imposition of costs, delays, restraints, barriers, prohibitions etc on trade across the border that aren't imposed now is a thing that hardens the border, and it has the adverse economic, political and social effects that the no-hard-border guarantee is supposed to avoid.

Igotadose

Per the Indo, a paper due today from No. 10 describing all the preparations HMG has made for a 31 Oct no deal:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-news-live-brexit-eu-court-hearing-no-deal-benn-act-latest-a9146946.html

Anyone have anything other than low expectations for this paper? It ought to stir the media up for a day or two, can imagine the slinging in Parliament.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1181617746875953155

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1181609820270538753

cryptocurrency

This is unfolding just as I have been saying. The backstop was always a unicorn.

Stop moaning ffs

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This is unfolding just as I have been saying. The backstop was always a unicorn.

Spat my tea out laughing. It really really really isn’t unfolding as you predicted.

Ireland was getting thrown under the bus months ago according to you. Ireland is under severe pressure from the Eu and will be made to kneel according to you. The UK has all the cards and will punish Ireland and the EU in the negotiations. that’s just A few of your ‘hits’ I can recall top of my head.

Not one of them has transpired. Not one.
You’re comedy tough please keep posting

davedanon

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Spat my tea out laughing. It really really really isn’t unfolding as you predicted.

Ireland was getting thrown under the bus months ago according to you. Ireland is under severe pressure from the Eu and will be made to kneel according to you. The UK has all the cards and will punish Ireland and the EU in the negotiations. that’s just A few of your ‘hits’ I can recall top of my head.

Not one of them has transpired. Not one.
You’re comedy tough please keep posting

Hehe. I've been waiting for cc to turn up all day, ever since Dom ShortCummings's deranged memo early this morning about which EU state* was going to be on the naughty step and feel the wrath of Mighty Blighty come Brexit.

Newsflash, baby. Leo isn't going to roll over in a couple of days. This meeting is merely to support another of Dim Dom's mad notions: “Varadkar doesn’t want to negotiate,” Cummings insists. “He wants to gamble on a second referendum.”

Boris will deliberately screw the pooch at the meeting with Leo, then go back to Westminster braying about how the treacherous Irish have betrayed Brexit and f*cked Britain over once again.

These people quite honestly deserve imprisonment for their crimes against democracy.

joseywhales

I would love to hear a full recording of that meeting. Probably "so any change?.....no.....ok then" followed by 25 minutes talking about the rugby world cup.

t8010789

joseywhales wrote: »

I would love to hear a full recording of that meeting. Probably "so any change?.....no.....ok then" followed by 25 minutes talking about the rugby world cup.

Or watching it

cryptocurrency

t8010789 wrote: »

Or watching it

Ireland have been giving press releases of the calls between Leo and Boris as has number 10.

Berlin has the option to do the same but the silence is deafening now. All we have had from Berlin is "we thought the conversation would remain private".

UK has no choice now.

fly_agaric

CPTM wrote: »

One suggestion I haven't really seen (not that I'd want to see it) is why do we need a border at all if there are two customs unions? I know it's international law to man your border but there isn't a high wall around every border in the world? Have it so that there are rules that businesses must follow when bringing goods from one side of the border to the other and if they break those rules there are harsh penalties for them. It's illegal to break red lights when driving but we don't have someone at every set of traffic lights making sure it doesn't happen. We just have consequences which deter people from doing it. I'm just surprised it hasn't been talked about

There isn't large amounts of money to be made out of breaking a red light.
There would be vast fortunes to be made out of smuggling, VAT frauds and other crookedness if UK leaves EU, diverges in laws and we refuse to enforce our bit of the EU external border (other than a sort of honour system).

That money will go to assorted ne're-do-wells including terrorists of various stripes (what will they use it for??).
The (potentially) fraudulent products involved could harm people. The black marketeers and crooks will suck revenue from EU states and undermine legitimate business. That is why countries will have customs systems and enforce checks on trade inward and outward. You need these checks [raising risk of getting caught] (as well as harsh penalties) as a deterrent IMO because the upsides to the criminals are so large and the damage it does is so great.

cryptocurrency

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Spat my tea out laughing. It really really really isn’t unfolding as you predicted.

Ireland was getting thrown under the bus months ago according to you. Ireland is under severe pressure from the Eu and will be made to kneel according to you. The UK has all the cards and will punish Ireland and the EU in the negotiations. that’s just A few of your ‘hits’ I can recall top of my head.

Not one of them has transpired. Not one.
You’re comedy tough please keep posting

How can you say that. All this talk about how powerful the EU and that the UK will have to bow. I said that the remainers will get wiped out in the next election as they sure will. The back stop is a trap and sure enough it has been shown as such. I rightfully stated that the UK will never sign up to that ever.

Plenty of miles left in this over the next few weeks but it is clear the backstop is gone and the public in the UK have been lifted behind Boris. I have no idea how the EU is gonna deal with that but you can only presume some sort of capitulation sold as a compromise.

Remember : The WA will not be reopned. A backstop is not a backstop unless the EU has control of it.

They were the unmovable EU demands, now in utter tatters.

Yeah I was right, am right, and will be right. Get your money on it.