Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

ancapailldorcha

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It would be the end of the beginning. Remain would be dead, which I think is essential at this point for the UK to move forward. The Trade discussions will involve a lot of shock and recrimination that will fully expose over time why Brexit was such a terrible idea but we have to allow that process to play out in full. I think we’ll also see Scottish independence, etc during this period but these are things that must now happen. The genie cannot be put back in the bottle.

Ireland will be unaffected by all of this with the front stop in place, so let them have it. There is no realistic argument for delaying the next stage of Brexit anymore imo. All politicians / people on the side of Remain were nowhere near forthright or aggressive enough and even now have no stomach for mass civil disobedience. Given you have no appetite for potentially effective protest you must allow it to proceed. Limbo is not a solution or permanent state.

Remain will do what the National Referendum Commission did in the seventies, it will become mutate. The NRC became the basis for British Euroscepticism, so Remain will become Rejoin. Brexit has not even begun yet. We're quibbling over how it starts here.

I disagree regarding Ireland. The frontstop is an atrocious idea. The EU loses any negotiating leverage over the UK should the assembly ever reappear and exercise its veto which will likely lead to a hard border. The UK will be in a much stronger position because it will already have gotten its deal so there'll be little the EU can do about it.

I've marched multiple times, donated money to various pro-EU outfits, volunteered, voted (Lib Dem for the People's Vote) and ran for political office. I don't know what more I am supposed to do.

Dytalus

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree regarding Ireland. The frontstop is an atrocious idea. The EU loses any negotiating leverage over the UK should the assembly ever reappear and exercise its veto which will likely lead to a hard border. The UK will be in a much stronger position because it will already have gotten its deal so there'll be little the EU can do about it.

I also disagree with the frontstop, but I'll also admit it's unlikely to result in a hard border. The default is staying in, parties would have to actively campaign on a position of "we'll vote for a hard border" for it happen.

This is pretty unlikely, but I agree that there shouldn't be a risk of it at all.

PostWoke

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Working class England despises the Conservatives. They might be Tory leaning but they remember what Thatcher did to them all too well.

There are like two generations of 'the working class' now that this doesn't apply to.

Danzy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Working class England despises the Conservatives. They might be Tory leaning but they remember what Thatcher did to them all too well.

The UK is a major service provider. The problem there is that said services can very easily be moved to the EU which seems very likely. Car companies will be destined to move over as well and biotech and other cutting edge firms will follow suit. Few want to be stuck in little England.

Maybe they do and understandably so.

However enough of them might see them as uncaring than the hostility from Labour.

In a YouGov poll last week, labour are about 14% lower than the Tories in working class voters and they prefer Johnson 2 to 1 to Corbyn.

What is the betting Labour will just think "false consciousness" and double down.

To move services, meand moving people, support companies etc, doable but more difficulty than moving a factory.

They'll want to be there because of access to finance and the 6th largest economy in the world.

The EU will also want to sell there as the eurozone looks like going back in to recession.

Stability is important, getting the deal passed offers them that.

LuckyLloyd

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Remain will do what the National Referendum Commission did in the seventies, it will become mutate. The NRC became the basis for British Euroscepticism, so Remain will become Rejoin. Brexit has not even begun yet. We're quibbling over how it starts here.

I completely agree and expect that in time (~25 years) the UK will end up as a committed member of the EU. But you now require Brexit to happen and it’s consequences to become real and tangible before a pro European consensus re-emerges.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I disagree regarding Ireland. The frontstop is an atrocious idea. The EU loses any negotiating leverage over the UK should the assembly ever reappear and exercise its veto which will likely lead to a hard border. The UK will be in a much stronger position because it will already have gotten its deal so there'll be little the EU can do about it.

Not until 2024 at the earliest, with a two year ‘really lads?’ cooling off period to work out an alternative solution. By then the trade talks will be very deep indeed in their expose of Brexit and ‘global Britain’ as ridiculous unicorns. In that context the Turkeys of the NI assembly will hardly vote for a Christmas they are fully responsible for.

The Front Stop means Ireland and the border cannot be leveraged as a bargaining chip during trade negotiations and this is vital. So yeah, we substantively disagree there.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've marched multiple times, donated money to various pro-EU outfits, volunteered, voted (Lib Dem for the People's Vote) and ran for political office. I don't know what more I am supposed to do.

And fair play to you, but your movement as a whole has been crushed across UK societal discourse. Your advocates are shouted down and jeered off the stage repeatedly on national tv. “Remain” politicians look weak and are easily painted as cynical opportunists. The right wing media follows through with a righteous ferocity that the other side of the press cannot dream of.

A million people marching peacefully in London doesn’t mean a thing. Just as the Lib Dem’s saying they are full revoke doesn’t mean a thing. There is no real power in either scenario, it changes nothing. Had there been a riot ala Poll Tax? Now that is the kind of protest you require at this stage. Drastic noisy vaguely militant defiance. Without it, we go back to the paragraph above where you’ve lost the argument in all the ways it can be lost over and over and over.

We need to end the beginning imo, sorry mate.

ancapailldorcha

Danzy wrote: »

In a YouGov poll last week, labour are about 14% lower than the Tories in working class voters and they prefer Johnson 2 to 1 to Corbyn.

That'll change within a few months of no deal Brexit and companies relocating.

Danzy wrote: »

To move services, meand moving people, support companies etc, doable but more difficulty than moving a factory.

This makes no sense. Literally the opposite is true. People can be moved easier than ever. The UK's manufacturing economy is tiny relative to services.

Danzy wrote: »

They'll want to be there because of access to finance and the 6th largest economy in the world.

Do you not think that the single market has something large to do with this?

Danzy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Remain will do what the National Referendum Commission did in the seventies, it will become mutate. The NRC became the basis for British Euroscepticism, so Remain will become Rejoin. Brexit has not even begun yet. We're quibbling over how it starts here.


I've marched multiple times, donated money to various pro-EU outfits, volunteered, voted (Lib Dem for the People's Vote) and ran for political office. I don't know what more I am supposed to do.

Which is why the EU wants this deal passed.

Lock it in, Britain out but trade continues, border problem solved.

Avoid uncertainty.

You have put your money where your mouth is, fair play.

ancapailldorcha

Danzy wrote: »

Which is why the EU wants this deal passed.

Lock it in, Britain out but trade continues, border problem solved.

Avoid uncertainty.

You have put your money where your mouth is, fair play.

The deal locks nothing except removing the ability to unilaterally revoke Article 50.

If it's signed tomorrow, we'll just be back here on the precipice again.

FunLover18

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It would be the end of the beginning. Remain would be dead, which I think is essential at this point for the UK to move forward. The Trade discussions will involve a lot of shock and recrimination that will fully expose over time why Brexit was such a terrible idea but we have to allow that process to play out in full. I think we’ll also see Scottish independence, etc during this period but these are things that must now happen. The genie cannot be put back in the bottle.

Ireland will be unaffected by all of this with the front stop in place, so let them have it. There is no realistic argument for delaying the next stage of Brexit anymore imo. All politicians / people on the side of Remain were nowhere near forthright or aggressive enough and even now have no stomach for mass civil disobedience. Given you have no appetite for potentially effective protest you must allow it to proceed. Limbo is not a solution or permanent state.

No, no, they've had their vote on that and the will of the people must be respected regardless of how things have changed :rolleyes:

Joe_ Public

Theres no doubt the tories are targeting labour working class areas for seats. I dont mind the polls but the tories closed that gap by 5% in 2017 and could close it again further. Thats not evn to mention farage and his jolly bunch of clowns. The voters must surely realise this is a great con trick, these populist parties will do sweet fannie adams to address their real problems but they will seemingly flock in droves to them anyway. That is seriously depressing.

Danzy

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That'll change within a few months of no deal Brexit and companies relocating.



This makes no sense. Literally the opposite is true. People can be moved easier than ever. The UK's manufacturing economy is tiny relative to services.



Do you not think that the single market has something large to do with this?

Say having the financial sector relocate to Paris or Berlin would take 20 years plus.

Experience and knowledge In the industry and the support industries can easily move but are often very reluctant to.

Even in an small industries.

Some German politician, strongly pro EU had a piece 2 years ago on how it would be near impossible to relocate say a service like the Financial sector to Outside London, in short terms, ie 20 years.

There is no conceivable scenario where No Deal happens, none at all.

There is no scenario where it is discussed or researched in a meaningful way.

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Theres no doubt the tories are targeting labour working class areas for seats. I dont mind the polls but the tories closed that gap by 5% in 2017 and could close it again further. Thats not evn to mention farage and his jolly bunch of clowns. The voters must surely realise this is a great con trick, these populist parties will do sweet fannie adams to address their real problems but they will seemingly flock in droves to them anyway. That is seriously depressing.

They just have to be less of a threat than the alternative.

Labour lost Scotland by tears of arrogance, not listening, not even hiding their contempt.

Same is happening in many working class areas.

ancapailldorcha

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I completely agree and expect that in time (~25 years) the UK will end up as a committed member of the EU. But you now require Brexit to happen and it’s consequences to become real and tangible before a pro European consensus re-emerges.

I don't think so. The tide is turning against the Conservatives. They might get their deal through, even no deal possibly but they are finished as a paty. Labour will immediately seek to either remain or rejoin.

By the way, I'm Irish. I don't appreciate the constant "you". I didn't vote for this disaster and I'll be jumping ship if necessary.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Not until 2024 at the earliest, with a two year ‘really lads?’ cooling off period to work out an alternative solution. By then the trade talks will be very deep indeed in their expose of Brexit and ‘global Britain’ as ridiculous unicorns. In that context the Turkeys of the NI assembly will hardly vote for a Christmas they are fully responsible for.

The Front Stop means Ireland and the border cannot be leveraged as a bargaining chip during trade negotiations and this is vital. So yeah, we substantively disagree there.

Look at how the UK has used the Article 50 notice period. Do you think that a two year cooling off period will mean anything at all?

The Front Stop means Ireland will be easier to use as a bargaining chip by Unionists and by the UK which will now be in a better position to ignore any demands from Ireland and the EU.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Had there been a riot ala Poll Tax? Now that is the kind of protest you require at this stage. Drastic noisy vaguely militant defiance. Without it, we go back to the paragraph above where you’ve lost the argument in all the ways it can be lost over and over and over.

We need to end the beginning imo, sorry mate.

So you're advocating that Remainers adopt violent methods. The remain side have been weak because they won't break the law like Vote Leave, Leave.EU, Arron Banks, BeLeave, etc...

J Mysterio

If you turn on Parliament TV but don't watch it and only listen to the volume, Ben Wallace, Secretary of State for Defence, sounds exactly like Captain Canady in Star Wars.

ohnonotgmail

Eric Cartman wrote: »

How many other UK referendums have ever had a second referedum at the end of deloberations ?

How many previous referendums involved voting on something without the faintest idea of what the vote actually meant?

Joe_ Public

Danzy wrote: »

They just have to be less of a threat than the alternative.

Labour lost Scotland by tears of arrogance, not listening, not even hiding their contempt.

Same is happening in many working class areas.

It seems to me a very complex struggle for labour. How to appeal to the growing middle class base down south without alienating the traditional base up north. Lot of those voters in deprived areas now seem to think of the likes of corbyn and mcdonnell as belonging to the metropolitan elite as much as the tories they despise. I dont know how they square that, ditch corbyn and swing back to the right? Well ok, but what does that really achieve?

Danzy

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It seems to me a very complex struggle for labour. How to appeal to the growing middle class base down south without alienating the traditional base up north. Lot of those voters in deprived areas now seem to think of the likes of corbyn and mcdonnell as belonging to the metropolitan elite as much as the tories they despise. I dont know how they square that, ditch corbyn and swing back to the right? Well ok, but what does that really achieve?

When your activists and party staff have different class outlooks, interests and needs to a large part of your base, a parting is inevitable.

It can't be squared.

Eric Cartman

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It seems to me a very complex struggle for labour. How to appeal to the growing middle class base down south without alienating the traditional base up north. Lot of those voters in deprived areas now seem to think of the likes of corbyn and mcdonnell as belonging to the metropolitan elite as much as the tories they despise. I dont know how they square that, ditch corbyn and swing back to the right? Well ok, but what does that really achieve?

Its a hard one , if you dont let in migrants you anger the middle class with their white guilt, if you do let in migrants you anger the working class who have to live near them , if you dont give the working class more free stuff they go elsewhere, if you do give them more free stuff youve to force the middle class to pay for it, its a complete joke, very hard to keep everyone happy.

The SNP have been coasting on workong class votes from scotland for years , makes it really easy come election time. Labour will likely have to make a choice between abandoning any push for/against multiculturalism or abandoning the working class.

Donnielighto

Danzy wrote: »

Say having the financial sector relocate to Paris or Berlin would take 20 years plus.

Experience and knowledge In the industry and the support industries can easily move but are often very reluctant to.

Even in an small industries.

Some German politician, strongly pro EU had a piece 2 years ago on how it would be near impossible to relocate say a service like the Financial sector to Outside London, in short terms, ie 20 years.

There is no conceivable scenario where No Deal happens, none at all.

There is no scenario where it is discussed or researched in a meaningful way.

I work in fund admin. 3/4 of the fund's I was working on were using UK offices for the portfolio management companies. The funds are legally domiciled in Ireland. Well over half of those London office funds have moved to EU locations now, mainly paris. One guy left in the London office that I interact with but most of the operations have left.

It's easy to move services if there is office space and personnel in the new location.

FrancieBrady

There have been three UK wide referendums.

2 have been on 'continuing membership' of the EEC and EU.

Joe_ Public

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Its a hard one , if you dont let in migrants you anger the middle class with their white guilt, if you do let in migrants you anger the working class who have to live near them , if you dont give the working class more free stuff they go elsewhere, if you do give them more free stuff youve to force the middle class to pay for it, its a complete joke, very hard to keep everyone happy.

The SNP have been coasting on workong class votes from scotland for years , makes it really easy come election time. Labour will likely have to make a choice between abandoning any push for/against multiculturalism or abandoning the working class.

Spot on i would say. At the recent party conference members backed a motion supporting retention of freedom of movement, but how can that square with the older base who, while not completely against, still harbour concerns about immigration. That does suggest a choice somewhere down the line though the political impulse is often towards some kind of acceptable fudge. I know corbyn is portrayed as weak, but he is dealing with a very delicate situation and i'm not sure what they cwn do about it.

shesty

Anything can be done quickly enough if there is a will for it to happen.I know a number of businesses across financial and other sectors that have done similar...sold off UK arms of their businesses and/or relocated.It's the push to decide to get it done is the big struggle, once the decision is made, things can mainly move quickly enough.

LuckyLloyd

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think so. The tide is turning against the Conservatives. They might get their deal through, even no deal possibly but they are finished as a paty. Labour will immediately seek to either remain or rejoin.

By the way, I'm Irish. I don't appreciate the constant "you". I didn't vote for this disaster and I'll be jumping ship if necessary.

The tide is turning? In what sense? Polling continues to be very strong since Johnson took over and in the context of FPTP they may have enough for an overall majority.

You’ll know my feelings on the Conservative party from the politics forum, but I don’t see anything tangible to cling to at present.

I think the time to leave is here. Leaving aside what exactly will happen with Brexit, the Overton window has already shifted in British society.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Look at how the UK has used the Article 50 notice period. Do you think that a two year cooling off period will mean anything at all?

The Front Stop means Ireland will be easier to use as a bargaining chip by Unionists and by the UK which will now be in a better position to ignore any demands from Ireland and the EU.

I don’t see how the front stop makes us easier to use as a bargaining chip? Can you explain that?

Unionism is not pro Brexit as a whole. There are plenty of middle class / farming Unionists who will welcome the front stop and continue to want it there.

And Ireland and the EU will have no more demands regarding NI. The front stop closes the situation. The next battle is a squeeze on service market access and with the front stop in place the conversation and blame game around same will shift to other parts of the political landscape.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

So you're advocating that Remainers adopt violent methods. The remain side have been weak because they won't break the law like Vote Leave, Leave.EU, Arron Banks, BeLeave, etc...

Yes I suppose I am. Playing by the rules has achieved nothing to date. This is either worth fighting for or it’s not.

And it’s not simply a case of remain being defeated because of the legal violations surrounding the campaign, abhorrent as they are. Leavers deliver their message simply and forcefully and with complete confidence. Over and over, they have the sound bites and the quips, the ultimate belief in their position. Remain has never found its gear in that regard.

Despite all that has happened, 42% still see the result of the referendum as correct; 45% are saying they’d go out and vote leave again in the morning. And that’s before another referendum campaign where the same tricks, etc as last time would be pulled and the fire and brimstone about “democracy” would be unleashed in an unrelenting fashion.

The EU watches all this and has clearly made calculations that Remain doesn’t have a viable path, hence its efforts to pull a deal together with Johnson. The path to certainty and ultimate resolution lies with Brexit occurring in some fashion. Remain is not united or coalescing around a single idea or approach - it has no realistic plan to achieve victory at this point.

Danzy

Luckylyoyd

Have to agree, there is little to suggest that the Tory party will not remain the largest party in their Parliament, in this election or the next.

There are threats to it but it's against a chaotic Labour party and the Lib Dems who are banking on Remain to carry them.

If the deal is passed, then Johnson will easily be re-elected.

If it's blocked, enough of the electorate will see a deal that Dublin and Brussels and London were ok with. That won't work out well for the opposition either.

So yes the Tories have threats and problems but Jeremy or Jo would love to only have those ones.

Donnielighto

Brexit needs to happen at this stage. If it goes well for then fair enough, if it doesn't fair enough.

I don't want this sh*tshow in another 10/20 years again and the only way to allow that is to turf them out they already have the best membership (most allowances) of the union and are still throwing the toys out of the pram.

We need to mirror their actions to EU citizens to their own though.

Danzy

German foreign ministe Heiko Maas, said a short technical extension may be granted to get the deal through, failure to get it through would mean looking longer term extension.

They aren't going to give the opposition in Britain much chance to put bills on this.

ancapailldorcha

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The tide is turning? In what sense? Polling continues to be very strong since Johnson took over and in the context of FPTP they may have enough for an overall majority.

You’ll know my feelings on the Conservative party from the politics forum, but I don’t see anything tangible to cling to at present.

I think the time to leave is here. Leaving aside what exactly will happen with Brexit, the Overton window has already shifted in British society.

I can’t disagree with the polling but I put a lot of that down to a widespread aversion to Jeremy Corbyn. I think that once Brexit happens, things will quickly shift his way though or, better still to a more centrist leader but that’s just my opinion. We’ll just have to disagree. Polls have shown the public turning against Brexit which is why the Tories are so desperate to avoid giving them any sort of say in the matter.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I don’t see how the front stop makes us easier to use as a bargaining chip? Can you explain that?

Unionism is not pro Brexit as a whole. There are plenty of middle class / farming Unionists who will welcome the front stop and continue to want it there.

And Ireland and the EU will have no more demands regarding NI. The front stop closes the situation. The next battle is a squeeze on service market access and with the front stop in place the conversation and blame game around same will shift to other parts of the political landscape.

45% of Northern Ireland voted to Leave the EU in 2016. Most of that seems to be Unionists. I think that if the Assembly ever uses its veto then the two years will just dwindle by as uselessly as they have on the mainland only there will be no extensions this time and the result might well be a hard border. The FTA will have been negotiated by then so there will be nothing to offer the UK nor anything to threaten them with unless the FTA contains some sort of provisions for this scenario.

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yes I suppose I am. Playing by the rules has achieved nothing to date. This is either worth fighting for or it’s not.

And it’s not simply a case of remain being defeated because of the legal violations surrounding the campaign, abhorrent as they are. Leavers deliver their message simply and forcefully and with complete confidence. Over and over, they have the sound bites and the quips, the ultimate belief in their position. Remain has never found its gear in that regard.

Despite all that has happened, 42% still see the result of the referendum as correct; 45% are saying they’d go out and vote leave again in the morning. And that’s before another referendum campaign where the same tricks, etc as last time would be pulled and the fire and brimstone about “democracy” would be unleashed in an unrelenting fashion.

The EU watches all this and has clearly made calculations that Remain doesn’t have a viable path, hence its efforts to pull a deal together with Johnson. The path to certainty and ultimate resolution lies with Brexit occurring in some fashion. Remain is not united or coalescing around a single idea or approach - it has no realistic plan to achieve victory at this point.

Of course. The Leave side are about feelings while the Remain side are about facts. The latter might be more complex and less engaging but this makes them no less important.

You say the same tricks would be used but you assume that they would be wielded with the same efficacy. We now see Johnson being portrayed as the vile, venal figure that he is instead of his preferred image of the well-meaning bungler. There will be no £350 million bus this time around. We also have three years of scoops about Cambridge Analytica, Aggregate IQ, Crispin Odey, Somerset Capital Management, Vote Leave, BeLeave, Leave.EU, Arron Banks, Russia, etc… The same tricks won’t work this time. Have you noticed that nobody is even pretending that Brexit will benefit the country any more? What will they run on? This is why they oppose the People’s Vote so vociferously. They know that they would lose it.

Donnielighto

Any chance Johnson loses his seat in an election with a conservative win overall?

Joe_ Public

Donnielighto wrote: »

Any chance Johnson loses his seat in an election with a conservative win overall?

Would involve him losing to a 24 year old british muslim candidate from labour which seems highly unlikely you'd think, but he's proceeding with a majority of 5k which isn't huge by any means. If a brexit party candidate split the leave vote and lib dems and others stood down to give lab a free run then it could be possible, but how likely is that to happen? Not very i'd say.

LoughNeagh2017

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I can’t disagree with the polling but I put a lot of that down to a widespread aversion to Jeremy Corbyn. I think that once Brexit happens, things will quickly shift his way though or, better still to a more centrist leader but that’s just my opinion. We’ll just have to disagree. Polls have shown the public turning against Brexit which is why the Tories are so desperate to avoid giving them any sort of say in the matter.



45% of Northern Ireland voted to Leave the EU in 2016. Most of that seems to be Unionists. I think that if the Assembly ever uses its veto then the two years will just dwindle by as uselessly as they have on the mainland only there will be no extensions this time and the result might well be a hard border. The FTA will have been negotiated by then so there will be nothing to offer the UK nor anything to threaten them with unless the FTA contains some sort of provisions for this scenario.



Of course. The Leave side are about feelings while the Remain side are about facts. The latter might be more complex and less engaging but this makes them no less important.

You say the same tricks would be used but you assume that they would be wielded with the same efficacy. We now see Johnson being portrayed as the vile, venal figure that he is instead of his preferred image of the well-meaning bungler. There will be no £350 million bus this time around. We also have three years of scoops about Cambridge Analytica, Aggregate IQ, Crispin Odey, Somerset Capital Management, Vote Leave, BeLeave, Leave.EU, Arron Banks, Russia, etc… The same tricks won’t work this time. Have you noticed that nobody is even pretending that Brexit will benefit the country any more? What will they run on? This is why they oppose the People’s Vote so vociferously. They know that they would lose it.

I am Catholic and voted to leave as I am against cultural and genetic mixing. "Ulstermen" having Eastern European grannies in the future doesn't sit easy with me as a full blooded Ulsterman, actually I am a 7/8th Ulsterman as i had a Connaught great grandparent. Of course I am a "racist" because I want to keep the Ulster race as pure as it can be, I had a black players name on the back of my football shirt as a boy so if anyone calls me a racist I tell them about that.