Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

tonycascarino

So should we now be preparing for a recession in Ireland next year as Boris seems to be very interested in a no deal??

I personally think the EU will cave in to whatever Boris wants as in the end they will poop in their pants re a no deal.

Larbre34

Boris can play to the crowd as much as he likes, but his Government knows as much as anyone that an exit before a substantive trade deal is concluded, or at least a longer transition agreed, while harming everyone harms Britain far more.

Its nice to be some definite steps being taken now, but really the UK hold no more leverage over the situation than they did before the election. Really the only survivable option long term as not so much 'no alignment', but rather very close absolute alignment with the EU framework.

cryptocurrency

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Your entire pre-November post history says otherwise.

no it doesn't ..it says brexit will happen and will be fine. I do recall stupid people get stuck on meaningless dates

cryptocurrency

tonycascarino wrote: »

So should we now be preparing for a recession in Ireland next year as Boris seems to be very interested in a no deal??

I personally think the EU will cave in to whatever Boris wants as in the end they will poop in their pants re a no deal.

This but i sense there is a big global mess coming in the coming years

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

no it doesn't ..it says brexit will happen and will be fine. I do recall stupid people get stuck on meaningless dates

Most of us accept it's going to happen. You were the exact person getting stuck on Johnson's original leave date. You banged that drum for ages and then disappeared when it didn't happen.

I'm surprised to see such an attitude from you admitting you're stupid. Even now, most are sick of this and them and want them gone, but don't care when. If there needs to be an extension for a productive trade deal, fine. But nope, it must be the end of 2020. This is the big new do or die date that Brexiteers salivate over.

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

Most of us accept it's going to happen. You were the exact person getting stuck on Johnson's original leave date. You banged that drum for ages and then disappeared when it didn't happen.

I'm surprised to see such an attitude from you admitting you're stupid. Even now, most are sick of this and them and want them gone, but don't care when. If there needs to be an extension for a productive trade deal, fine. But nope, it must be the end of 2020. This is the big new do or die date that Brexiteers salivate over.

You don't see the difference in how Boris as taken the narrative back after May had become a door mat?

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You don't see the difference in how Boris as taken the narrative back after May had become a door mat?

We're not talking about the difference. You spent ages saying he was going to Leave. Now you claim you know he was going to Leave like this.

Then you randomly see you recall stupid people caring about dates when you care about them more than anyone in this entire thread.

Nate--IRL--

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You don't see the difference in how Boris as taken the narrative back after May had become a door mat?

And you falling for his false narrative re the original leave date?

Nate

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

We're not talking about the difference. You spent ages saying he was going to Leave. Now you claim you know he was going to Leave like this.

Then you randomly see you recall stupid people caring about dates when you care about them more than anyone in this entire thread.

we've done this, and you are looking really desperate hanging on to something that is not at all important.

Boris was all up for leaving and the remainiacs in the parliment done everything to stop it. They even tried to stop an election. They are anti democratic loons and anyone who supported them is an idiot.

It has worked out better in the end as the election was forced and he now has 5 untouchable years to do it what ever way he likes and the EU will squirm.

You can see from the lack of tweets from the likes of Tusk and very little from Guy Vohs that they know they are beat down. Good days.

cryptocurrency

Nate--IRL-- wrote: »

And you falling for his false narrative re the original leave date?

Nate

The leave date will become like the bus and just repeated. Reminds me of the NPC meme, very fitting.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

we've done this, and you are looking really desperate hanging on to something that is not at all important.

Boris was all up for leaving and the remainiacs in the parliment done everything to stop it. They even tried to stop an election. They are anti democratic loons and anyone who supported them is an idiot.

It has worked out better in the end as the election was forced and he now has 5 untouchable years to do it what ever way he likes and the EU will squirm.

You can see from the lack of tweets from the likes of Tusk and very little from Guy Vohs that they know they are beat down. Good days.

I'm quoting this so I can easily find it Jan 2021. #cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm quoting this so I can easily find it next January. #cryptocurrency

You will cling on to anything. Go find the countless posts I have made saying dates doesn't matter, it's meaningless as the destination remains the same. It's happening and like the never to be reopened withdrawal agreement the chumps in brussels will be caving like a cheap argos tent again.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You will cling on to anything. Go find the countless posts I have made saying dates doesn't matter, it's meaningless as the destination remains the same. It's happening and like the never to be reopened withdrawal agreement the chumps in brussels will be caving like a cheap argos tent again.

You say I'm desperate and you saying I'm clinging onto anything... I have no idea what you're talking about. I cannot wait for the UK to leave and I think they have proven that that is the wish of the people. I didn't support a second referendum or repeal, at least not in the last year it feels like.

I think this big end of 2020 date is stupid and will work against the UK. You think Johnson is strong enough to make the EU agree to a deal that would bring about the collapse of the EU. The EU has no mandate to shoot itself in the face.

What in particular do you think Johnson will be asking for, threatening to do No Deal for, and then getting? Banking access? Fishing? What is the big win he's looking for that cannot be achieved without threats and ultimatums?

declanflynn

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You will cling on to anything. Go find the countless posts I have made saying dates doesn't matter, it's meaningless as the destination remains the same. It's happening and like the never to be reopened withdrawal agreement the chumps in brussels will be caving like a cheap argos tent again.

Good stuff everyone wants the tans out

declanflynn

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You will cling on to anything. Go find the countless posts I have made saying dates doesn't matter, it's meaningless as the destination remains the same. It's happening and like the never to be reopened withdrawal agreement the chumps in brussels will be caving like a cheap argos tent again.

Any tans left in Ireland should be deported

Field east

Bit cynical wrote: »

To a certain extent the UK opting to leave the EU was always going to be a bit of a leap into the dark. I don't think people who voted to leave expected to know every aspect of the outcome in detail.

To take a simple example, if you were an average swimmer and you went to a river that you knew nothing about for a possible swim, would you get in and not knowing how deep it is, how fast the current is, what’s underneath the surface, the situation down stream, water quality, etc. so much for ‘a leap in the dark’

cryptocurrency

Field east wrote: »

To take a simple example, if you were an average swimmer and you went to a river that you knew nothing about for a possible swim, would you get in and not knowing how deep it is, how fast the current is, what’s underneath the surface, the situation down stream, water quality, etc. so much for ‘a leap in the dark’

This level of fear is for people and nations that will never succeed. It is weak and pathetic to view it like that.

Bit cynical

Field east wrote: »

To take a simple example, if you were an average swimmer and you went to a river that you knew nothing about for a possible swim, would you get in and not knowing how deep it is, how fast the current is, what’s underneath the surface, the situation down stream, water quality, etc. so much for ‘a leap in the dark’

On the other hand, although we might disagree on the reasons in the particular instance of Brexit, sometimes such a leap is necessary.

Bit cynical

Wasn't the big complaint up until about a week ago that the UK should hurry up and get on with it? The EU is running out of patience etc. No more delay!

Now the big complaint is that the EU needs more time to negotiate a deal.

theological

Field east wrote: »

To take a simple example, if you were an average swimmer and you went to a river that you knew nothing about for a possible swim, would you get in and not knowing how deep it is, how fast the current is, what’s underneath the surface, the situation down stream, water quality, etc. so much for ‘a leap in the dark’

The people decided this already. The terms of withdrawal are clear because they are in the agreement that Johnson has just got through the house. There is the nature of what comes next, but both sides want a free trade agreement. The nature of that needs to be discussed, but the idea that the UK is heading for apocalyptic doom is unfounded.

The fearmongering hasn't worked with the British public. There's every reason to think that the UK will continue to be a successful economy outside of the EU. The idea that nobody will want to trade with the UK is absurd.

So how much of a leap in the dark are we talking about? There are some unknowns, but the direction of travel is much clearer now than it was even before this election.

Bit cynical wrote: »

Wasn't the big complaint up until about a week ago that the UK should hurry up and get on with it? The EU is running out of patience etc. No more delay!

Now the big complaint is that the EU needs more time to negotiate a deal.

The EU are losing patience. The British public are losing patience after the last three years have been wasted when there could have been more clarity if the hardcore remain contingent weren't trying to thwart Brexit in parliament. Luckily it looks like they've been mostly sacked by the public now and progress can be made, it's just a shame that it wasn't sooner.

Kidchameleon

Field east wrote: »

To take a simple example, if you were an average swimmer and you went to a river that you knew nothing about for a possible swim, would you get in and not knowing how deep it is, how fast the current is, what’s underneath the surface, the situation down stream, water quality, etc. so much for ‘a leap in the dark’

Ah comon now, its over, leave it be

Dytalus

Bit cynical wrote: »

Wasn't the big complaint up until about a week ago that the UK should hurry up and get on with it? The EU is running out of patience etc. No more delay!

Now the big complaint is that the EU needs more time to negotiate a deal.

No, the big complaint is that everyone needs more time to negotiate a deal. Free Trade Agreements take years to work out. The Mercosur Agreement took from 2016 until 2019, and still hasn't been signed.

The talks for the trade deal with Japan began in 2013, and were only finalised (with the agreement signed) last year. The EU-Singapore Trade deal took 8 years to be finalised. Even in a simpler case, such as US bilateral agreements, the average time from first negotiations to implementation is 3 years. Even just until signing is still an average of 18 months. Discussions with the EU will likely take much longer because it has to satisfy all 27 Member States individual governments before it gets signed, and then each member has to implement it after that.

And, once again, the EU is the larger market and accounts for more of the UK's GDP than the UK accounts for EU GDP. It holds most of the cards going into negotiation. It's worse for the UK to try and ram through a trade deal in less than a year. As I've said elsewhere in another thread:

Trade of goods with the EU accounts for 8% of the UK's GDP, vs 2.3% of the EU 27's GDP, even though the UK runs a deficit on goods trading. It only looks worse for the UK when it comes to services, for which the UK runs a trade surplus while also being a significantly smaller economy.

As 80% of the UK's GDP is based on services, that's a pretty big risk to be taking. Trade in services along accounts for 21% of their GDP.

Kidchameleon

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Ah comon now, its over, leave it be

It hasn't even begun. The poster was pointing out that this whole thing is a shot in the dark.. It still is.

Dytalus

Dytalus wrote: »

No, the big complaint is that everyone needs more time to negotiate a deal. Free Trade Agreements take years to work out. The Mercosur Agreement took from 2016 until 2019, and still hasn't been signed.

The talks for the trade deal with Japan began in 2013, and were only finalised (with the agreement signed) last year. The EU-Singapore Trade deal took 8 years to be finalised. Even in a simpler case, such as US bilateral agreements, the average time from first negotiations to implementation is 3 years. Even just until signing is still an average of 18 months. Discussions with the EU will likely take much longer because it has to satisfy all 27 Member States individual governments before it gets signed, and then each member has to implement it after that.

And, once again, the EU is the larger market and accounts for more of the UK's GDP than the UK accounts for EU GDP. It holds most of the cards going into negotiation. It's worse for the UK to try and ram through a trade deal in less than a year. As I've said elsewhere in another thread:

There's a common misconception amongst Brexit supporters that Johnson pressuring the EU will somehow force the negotiation team and EU leaders to agree to a deal.. Because that's how the Withdrawal Agreement was set up. They all talk about "The EU will have to play ball." when it's actually over 30 parliaments that all must sign off on whatever is negotiated.

Plenty of those parliaments are far from the UK and far from any negative consequences of a No Deal. Walloon didn't give a toss that it was just a small area in Belgium when they voted against the Canada deal. It takes so long to ratify that realistically, the negotiations have to be finished months before the end of 2020. And all have to pass the first time. The UK is leaving no room whatsoever for an upset across all of Europe. They cannot ask for an extension to solve the concerns of a single parliament that didn't like part of the deal. It is actually impressive how much of an insane gamble it is considering how much the trouble the UK's parliament caused not signing off on deals. Now the UK will have to deal with dozens of parliaments, and the harder they push the negotiations, the less chance there is of all those parliaments being happy with the deal.

It would be a spectacular own goal for there to be a No Deal simply because the UK misunderstood the process. They have voluntarily given the process a lowered chance of succeeding even though they would prefer for it to succeed. Morbid curiosity and the fact neither I nor my family work in Ireland makes we want to see it happen. I want some random Walloon-type parliament to scupper the deal. I want the UK populace to see that the EU does not rule over its member nations like they believe it does. I want them to complain it doesn't.

declanflynn

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Ah comon now, its over, leave it be

Will a lot of brits return home when Brexit is complete?

Donald Trump

Bit cynical wrote: »

Wasn't the big complaint up until about a week ago that the UK should hurry up and get on with it? The EU is running out of patience etc. No more delay!

Now the big complaint is that the EU needs more time to negotiate a deal.

Sure easiest deal in history something something

Beasty

declanflynn is taking an extended break from the forum for yet again breaching their threadban (before the amnesty). No need to respond to them further

MadYaker

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Ah comon now, its over, leave it be

What's over exactly? Britian is still a full member of the E.U. According to the withdrawal agreement which MPs voted for they're going to be in a transition period until the end of 2020 at least and it will likely be longer. January 2020 is only the first step. It'll be interesting to see how the negotiations go and if the E.U will be soft on the U.K and give them what they want. I suspect they won't.

Any talk of a no deal brexit is surely laughable now? The withdrawal agreement is passed. If bojo were to attempt to threaten the EU with that they'd laugh in his face.

Tony EH

First Up wrote: »

The idea behind representative democracy (the form that works) is that the people elect parliamentarians (who are supposed to know what they are doing) to run the country and make decisions. If the people don't like the outcome, they can elect others.

Cameron abdicated his responsibility by handing as complex an issue as EU membership to an electorate ill-equipped to decide on it.

Its democracy alright but an awful stupid way to run a country. But that's their problem.

This isn't really the heart of the matter though. The real problem lies with the issue that Britain has a "ruling class" that uses political careers as their own playthings and they don't ever suffer the consequences of their "mistakes" in their decision making. The idea that the likes of posh boys like Cameron can just throw a hand grenade of such potentially devastating proportions, like Brexit, into the fabric of a society and then just walk away should be utterly appalling to every citizen, regardless of their position on the matter.

Putting anything to a referendum is perfectly fine and in a lot of circumstances, I believe it to be essential. But throwing out referenda like flying a kite in the wind is the most ludicrous way of handling any democratic issue and that is the way Dave and the Tories handled it.

So called "representative democracy" sounds fine, but that is predicated on those representatives ACTUALLY being representative of the people voting them in and the likes of Eton/Oxbridge expensively educated Bullingdon Club boys who are groomed for backbench political life being representative of the vast majority of the British public is a ridiculous idea in the first place.

Like America, Britain's entire political system needs to be severely reformed, because at present it isn't fit for purpose in any respect.

First Up

Tony EH wrote:

Like America, Britain's entire political system needs to be severely reformed, because at present it isn't fit for purpose in any respect.

I'm not getting into that stuff. The electorate gets the people it votes in. They deserve each other.