Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

cryptocurrency

theological wrote: »

It would be better to be more agile about trade discussions. Deciding for one country is easier than deciding with 28.

Most of the UK's trade goes outside of the EU already. Having the freedom to negotiate alternative trade deals is a good idea.

I also don't buy the idea that trade negotiations by the EU automatically lead to better outcomes for member states. Why? The interests of Poland are different from the interests of the UK.

Negotiating for bigger blocs takes longer but it also means that the one size fits all solution may not benefit every country equally. There are advantages to finding bespoke solutions.

Edit:
Also the UK is one of the world's largest economies. So I don't see your point about it being somehow unable to negotiate.

The fact that the UK in the EU has better trade terms with Romania then Australia, New Zealand and much of the commonwealth is shocking considering their shared history. UK needs to focus on the commonwealth more as it is much more global and much more central to world growth. There is much more for the UK to gain from focusing on the commonwealth then the EU. Europe as discussed above is gonna become more irrelevant.

Ireland should look at this commonwealth thing much closer.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

That is the whole remain argument in a nutshell isn't it. "we are so pathtic and weak we need each other to stand up against the rising dynamic and developing economies around the world and shelter together against their dynamism"

Let's not compete, let's stick up ridiculous barriers. "hey vietnam, unless you roll out a national gender neatural toilet policy we will block deals and indonesia, you need to be more woke or we are taking our ball home"

And the leave plan for trade:
We will get exactly what we want from you on our terms or we will say that you are all just a bunch of bullies who want to punish the UK.

cryptocurrency

KildareP wrote: »

And the leave plan for trade:
We will get exactly what we want from you on our terms or we will say that you are all just a bunch of bullies who want to punish the UK.

EU can't and won't be punishing anyone. UK will get their deal and it will all be fine.

EU is a paper tiger, the more bullish you are with them the more you will get from them.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

30 people...and look at the figures.


Please,

For a start, plus couldn't see them keeping their existing uk staff on the payroll once up and running.

Not sure what the sales people etc are going to be on but the salary range they are offering for technical support roles is in the 60-80k range plus benefits.

Evd-Burner

cryptocurrency wrote: »

EU can't and won't be punishing anyone. UK will get their deal and it will all be fine.

EU is a paper tiger, the more bullish you are with them the more you will get from them.

Do you seriously believe the stuff that you say?

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The fact that the UK in the EU has better trade terms with Romania then Australia, New Zealand and much of the commonwealth is shocking considering their shared history. UK needs to focus on the commonwealth more as it is much more global and much more central to world growth. There is much more for the UK to gain from focusing on the commonwealth then the EU. Europe as discussed above is gonna become more irrelevant.

Ireland should look at this commonwealth thing much closer.

The commonwealth is just a historical figurehead at this stage.

Australia have said they will not agree to any UK FTA that could jeopardise any future FTA with the EU. They see the EU as more valuable.

Canada have said they will not discuss any FTA with the UK until they see how things pan out, especially if their WTO tariff schedule will give them UK market access with nothing required of them in return. They are happy to wait.

USA are all talk about a wonderful FTA for the UK. The USA will not be entering negotiations with the UK on equal-partner terms, the USA will very much have the upper hand. And again, they can wait it out if needs be.

That’s going to become the modus operandi of a lot of potential trade partners the UK goes to meet. Everyone on WTO terms currently has the benefit of time because Brexit won’t really have much of a bearing on their individual agreements on the new Day 1 terms.

The UK on the other hand will see all it’s non-WTO trade torn up overnight. It then has to go source that non-WTO trade on WTO terms as it still needs what it does not produce domestically.
That presents a difficult choice - apply tariffs (everything now becomes x% more expensive overnight) or zero-rate (and risk FTA negotiations because the WTO basis is more attractive than any FTA could offer).

Donald Trump

theological wrote: »

It would be better to be more agile about trade discussions.

I can see you've taken part in many trade discussions before. That is why you go for your weekly meeting with the CEO of Kellogs and have them sell you a packet of cornflakes for far far lower than they will sell to Tesco. You being far more agile than Tesco and all.

theological wrote: »

Edit:
Also the UK is one of the world's largest economies. So I don't see your point about it being somehow unable to negotiate.

The other fantasist on here linked to some website with an article about the decline of the EU and said that that was why it was better for the UK to be out.
That article said UK is currently around 3.3% of Global GDP, roughly same as India. That same article says that by 2100, India will have 10 times the share of global GDP as the UK will have at that time.



Now, I'm not even going to get into trying to explain to you all what GDP means. Unless there is a huge shift in economic and political systems then a huge huge chunk of that foreign GDP is going to be owned and controlled by people in the "West".

theological

Donald Trump wrote: »

I can see you've taken part in many trade discussions before. That is why you go for your weekly meeting with the CEO of Kellogs and have them sell you a packet of cornflakes for far far lower than they will sell to Tesco. You being far more agile than Tesco and all.

The other fantasist on here linked to some website with an article about the decline of the EU and said that that was why it was better for the UK to be out.
That article said UK is currently around 3.3% of Global GDP, roughly same as India. That same article says that by 2100, India will have 10 times the share of global GDP as the UK will have at that time.

Now, I'm not even going to get into trying to explain to you all what GDP means. Unless there is a huge shift in economic and political systems then a huge huge chunk of that foreign GDP is going to be owned and controlled by people in the "West".

This kind of patronising passive aggressive crap isn't needed.
Let's stick to the argument.

I don't see why the UK won't be able to negotiate FTAs with other countries when smaller countries have managed to do so with success. Australia and Canada are two examples.

A good question to continue the discussion with would be why do you think the UK cannot be successful outside of the European Union when many other countries are?

cryptocurrency

KildareP wrote: »

The commonwealth is just a historical figurehead at this stage.

Australia have said they will not agree to any UK FTA that could jeopardise any future FTA with the EU. They see the EU as more valuable.

Canada have said they will not discuss any FTA with the UK until they see how things pan out, especially if their WTO tariff schedule will give them UK market access with nothing required of them in return. They are happy to wait.

USA are all talk about a wonderful FTA for the UK. The USA will not be entering negotiations with the UK on equal-partner terms, the USA will very much have the upper hand. And again, they can wait it out if needs be.

That’s going to become the modus operandi of a lot of potential trade partners the UK goes to meet. Everyone on WTO terms currently has the benefit of time because Brexit won’t really have much of a bearing on their individual agreements on the new Day 1 terms.

The UK on the other hand will see all it’s non-WTO trade torn up overnight. It then has to go source that non-WTO trade on WTO terms as it still needs what it does not produce domestically.
That presents a difficult choice - apply tariffs (everything now becomes x% more expensive overnight) or zero-rate (and risk FTA negotiations because the WTO basis is more attractive than any FTA could offer).

This kinda talk is why people pity remainers. It's their doormat approach to life.

You will be wrong on ALL your points above. You know it, I know it.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This kinda talk is why people pity remainers. It's their doormat approach to life.

You will be wrong on ALL your points above. You know it, I know it.

Neither of us know.

We can’t know.

Why?

Because this is literally the first time anyone has exited a successful trade bloc. Ever. Anywhere in the world. This is uncharted waters.

Yet this is done on the back of a plan built on hopes and ideologies. No-one seems to have thought about the “what ifs” such as my case above, what if that is the reality faced by the UK?
You won’t be able to shout down remainers then.

cryptocurrency

Evd-Burner wrote: »

Do you seriously believe the stuff that you say?

More then believe, I know.

EU fold like a cheap argos tent, each and evrytime they get pushed. I have never seen the EU do anything from a position of strength.

The capitulation over the WA summed them up and the remainers could pipe on about was the exact day the UK passed the WA. Laughable desperation.

smelly sock

Will there be a recession when brexit goes through?

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

More then believe, I know.

EU fold like a cheap argos tent, each and evrytime they get pushed. I have never seen the EU do anything from a position of strength.

The capitulation over the WA summed them up and the remainers could pipe on about was the exact day the UK passed the WA. Laughable desperation.

The only folding done thus far in Brexit is by the UK, Mr Johnson no less.

From NO NO NO border down the Irish Sea and NO NO NO undemocratic backstop.
It was a capitulation, a WA no UK PM could ever accept.

What have we ended up with today?
A border down the Irish Sea and the last resort backstop is now a mandatory frontstop

cryptocurrency

smelly sock wrote: »

Will there be a recession when brexit goes through?

I think the world is due one in 2021 anyway but it won't be due to brexit. I expect the UK leaving the EU will soften the blow of any recession for the UK and will likely force the EU's hand during 2020 on an agreement with the UK. A recession could well be in the UK's advantage.

Donald Trump

theological wrote: »

This kind of patronising passive aggressive crap isn't needed.
Let's stick to the argument.

I don't see why the UK won't be able to negotiate FTAs with other countries when smaller countries have managed to do so with success. Australia and Canada are two examples.

A good question to continue the discussion with would be why do you think the UK cannot be successful outside of the European Union when many other countries are?

Could they be "successful". Yes of course they could. Could they do better outside the club than inside it? Highly unlikely.

So I have one question for people who have your viewpoint. You think it is a disadvantage to have an agreement with the EU. Because it places restrictions yadda yadda. Do you not think that other countries might also place restrictions? US says "we'll do this deal but you have to restrict what you buy from China and you can't do a deal for the same product with someone else until 2030". You think that that can't or won't happen?

If the US decides it wants to ban Huawei then the EU can say "do whatever you want, we'll do what we want". Will the UK on it's own be able to do the same when standing on it's own in practice?

Your two examples, Canada and Australia, are both vast territories with huge natural resources btw. Resources the UK does not have (anymore)

cryptocurrency

KildareP wrote: »

The only folding done thus far in Brexit is by the UK, Mr Johnson no less.

From NO NO NO border down the Irish Sea and NO NO NO undemocratic backstop.
It was a capitulation, a WA no UK PM could ever accept.

What have we ended up with today?
A border down the Irish Sea and the last resort backstop is now a mandatory frontstop

????

They WA which was never to be reopened was opened.

And the UK now head into a transition where the ability to walk away no deal is firely there which under mays deal it wasn't.

Dress it up any way you like and convince yourself of anything you like but when you go from having a locked in WA agreement which May presented to a new one which puts the ace of spades back from the EU into boris hadns then their was only one winner.

If it helps to soften the blow for you to view ti any other way then go ahead, let's face it remainers have clasped at all sorts of strwas for years and won't chnage now.

WA needs a deal be the end of 2020, it is written into law that their can be no extension, boris as a huge untouchable majority.

Tick tock tick tock tick tock...scream and cry all you want, the more noise you make the more it is obvious you are snookered.

Donald Trump

cryptocurrency wrote: »

I think the world is due one in 2021 anyway but it won't be due to brexit. I expect the UK leaving the EU will soften the blow of any recession for the UK and will likely force the EU's hand during 2020 on an agreement with the UK. A recession could well be in the UK's advantage.

And perhaps the EU 27 might just capitulate and come to the UK on their knees and cap-in-hand and agree to become dominions of her majesty in order to take their true place as serfs to their British betters?

cryptocurrency

Donald Trump wrote: »

Could they be "successful". Yes of course they could. Could they do better outside the club than inside it? Highly unlikely.

So I have one question for people who have your viewpoint. You think it is a disadvantage to have an agreement with the EU. Because it places restrictions yadda yadda. Do you not think that other countries might also place restrictions? US says "we'll do this deal but you have to restrict what you buy from China and you can't do a deal for the same product with someone else until 2030". You think that that can't or won't happen?

If the US decides it wants to ban Huawei then the EU can say "do whatever you want, we'll do what we want". Will the UK on it's own be able to do the same when standing on it's own in practice?

Your two examples, Canada and Australia, are both vast territories with huge natural resources btw. Resources the UK does not have (anymore)

No it can't. If the USA said ban Huawei then the EU needs to jump to their tune. THe UK is well aware of what is more important and the secuirty arrangements of the 5 eyes network and central to that the USA is far more important then a little noise from the EU. Let's not forget the EU doesn't really have any secuirty arrangements, they totally depend on others.
They will jump into line.

RasTa

I live in the UK.

Please tell me when everything will be great and how it's going to make my standard of living better?

cryptocurrency

RasTa wrote: »

I live in the UK.

Please tell me when everything will be great and how it's going to make my standard of living better?

This is all relative. It is already better then this places you aspire to stay in a club with.

Let's look at France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Germany, countries of comparable size within the EU.

I would pick the UK all day long as a place to make a living out of them as I know I have the best chance of getting rich.

The EU has utterly failed the med region, utterly.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

????

They WA which was never to be reopened was opened.

And the UK now head into a transition where the ability to walk away no deal is firely there which under mays deal it wasn't.

Dress it up any way you like and convince yourself of anything you like but when you go from having a locked in WA agreement which May presented to a new one which puts the ace of spades back from the EU into boris hadns then their was only one winner.

If it helps to soften the blow for you to view ti any other way then go ahead, let's face it remainers have clasped at all sorts of strwas for years and won't chnage now.

WA needs a deal be the end of 2020, it is written into law that their can be no extension, boris as a huge untouchable majority.

Tick tock tick tock tick tock...scream and cry all you want, the more noise you make the more it is obvious you are snookered.

I don’t live in the UK for starters, so it won’t directly impact me either way.

The WA would not be reopened on the then current UK red lines - what was the point in doing so, was the EU’s point of view? If the UK were unwilling to shift why should the EU reopen the WA?

And shift the UK did - no border down the Irish Sea (a DUP “blood red” line) and no backstop mechanism - hence the WA could then be rewritten.

And so it has.
The backstop mechanism is no longer the insurance policy for failure to implement the Alternative Arrangements for the UK-EU border, it’s now the defacto mechanism from Day 1. And that UK blood red line was washed away after the bus was driven over the DUP by Mr. Dead in a Ditch “no extension” (that was actually extended) Johnson.

And yet that’s championed as a UK win!!!

BTW - writing into law the discussions must be completed by Dec 2020 can just as easily be unwritten as quick. Mr. Do or Die (but did neither by Oct 31st) just backed himself into the corner on that one, he can’t blame a remainer parliament forcing his hand on another extension this time. Extend or crash out (and cash in those £ before the currency markets get wind of it).

cryptocurrency

KildareP wrote: »

I don’t live in the UK for starters, so it won’t directly impact me either way.

The WA would not be reopened on the then current UK red lines - what was the point in doing so, was the EU’s point of view? If the UK were unwilling to shift why should the EU reopen the WA?

And shift the UK did - no border down the Irish Sea (a DUP “blood red” line) and no backstop mechanism - hence the WA could then be rewritten.

And so it has.
The backstop mechanism is no longer the insurance policy for failure to implement the Alternative Arrangements for the UK-EU border, it’s now the defacto mechanism from Day 1. And that UK blood red line was washed away after the bus was driven over the DUP by Mr. Dead in a Ditch “no extension” (that was actually extended) Johnson.

And yet that’s championed as a UK win!!!

BTW - writing into law the discussions must be completed by Dec 2020 can just as easily be unwritten as quick. Mr. Do or Die (but did neither by Oct 31st) just backed himself into the corner on that one, he can’t blame a remainer parliament forcing his hand on another extension this time. Extend or crash out (and cash in those £ before the currency markets get wind of it).

Thats some desperate spin right there.

I will break it down nice and simple. Is no deal and walk still on the table at the end of the trans period? is there a law for no extension?

The answer is yes to both and there rest of your argnuments is just dress up and spin.

It boils all down to them two moves.

Now let's look at https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP Donald Tusk not tweeeting since Decmeber 12 from this account. That's some sulking right there.

Phoebas

KildareP wrote: »

And yet that’s championed as a UK win!!!

I expect to see a lot of this over the next couple of years.
Cryptocurrency's posts read a bit like Daily Express headlines.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Thats some desperate spin right there.

I will break it down nice and simple. Is no deal and walk still on the table at the end of the trans period? is there a law for no extension?

The answer is yes to both and there rest of your argnuments is just dress up and spin.

It boils all down to them two moves.

Now let's look at https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP Donald Tusk not tweeeting since Decmeber 12 from this account. That's some sulking right there.

Have the UK backed down on no border down the Irish Sea?
Have the UK backed down on insisting a border through island of Ireland?
The answer to both those questions is Yes.

Can a law for no extension be altered or repealed at will?
The answer to that question is Yes.

Does the prospect of No Deal and walk still exist?
Yes - and they don’t need to wait until Dec 2020 either. Walk on Jan 31 and shut down negotiations there and then if they so choose.

RasTa

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This is all relative. It is already better then this places you aspire to stay in a club with.

Let's look at France, Italy, Spain, Poland, Germany, countries of comparable size within the EU.

I would pick the UK all day long as a place to make a living out of them as I know I have the best chance of getting rich.

The EU has utterly failed the med region, utterly.

You not rich already? How come?

I'd rather live in France with a 35hr week and some of the best healthcare. Spain for the food and weather and maybe Italy for some skiing.

However I think it will be a German move if it goes pear shaped.

A lot of poverty over in the UK atm, NHS is a big mess and not much for the kids to do. I cannot wait until leaving the EU fixes all of this.

cryptocurrency

RasTa wrote: »

You not rich already? How come?

I'd rather live in France with a 35hr week and some of the best healthcare. Spain for the food and weather and maybe Italy for some skiing.

However I think it will be a German move if it goes pear shaped.

A lot of poverty over in the UK atm, NHS is a big mess and not much for the kids to do. I cannot wait until leaving the EU fixes all of this.

You crack on, keep us updated as to how you get on. Esp the living in france bit.

KildareP

RasTa wrote: »

You not rich already? How come?

I'd rather live in France with a 35hr week and some of the best healthcare. Spain for the food and weather and maybe Italy for some skiing.

However I think it will be a German move if it goes pear shaped.

A lot of poverty over in the UK atm, NHS is a big mess and not much for the kids to do. I cannot wait until leaving the EU fixes all of this.

I know, right?

And how come it’s the EU’s fault for preventing wealth in, say, France but yet somehow does not prevent someone in the UK getting rich?

RasTa

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You crack on, keep us updated as to how you get on. Esp the living in france bit.

Why aren't you rich though? Why haven't you moved to the UK yourself since you know all the answers? Tis only a 40min flight and rent is cheap.

theological

n

theological wrote: »

A good question to continue the discussion with would be why do you think the UK cannot be successful outside of the European Union when many other countries are?

No one here thinks countries can't be successful outside of the EU.

theological

RasTa wrote: »

You not rich already? How come?

I'd rather live in France with a 35hr week and some of the best healthcare. Spain for the food and weather and maybe Italy for some skiing.

However I think it will be a German move if it goes pear shaped.

A lot of poverty over in the UK atm, NHS is a big mess and not much for the kids to do. I cannot wait until leaving the EU fixes all of this.

If the UK is so terrible why are you living there?

My experience of the UK seems to be pretty different to yours also. It's a great outward looking country. I've been pretty blessed I would say, I'm thankful to have a good and an interesting job and I plan to spend many more years if not the rest of my life here.

My experience of the NHS when I had to use it was that I had pretty good care for nothing. The healthcare system is certainly better than Ireland's where you have to pay for GP visits.

Also - why do you think refugees are so keen to leave France to come to the UK if it is so dreadful?

Deleted User wrote: »

n

No one here thinks countries can't be successful outside of the EU.

Super so the UK will be fine outside of the EU. I'm glad we've settled that.