Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

FrancieBrady

theological wrote: »

Also - why do you think refugees are so keen to leave France to come to the UK if it is so dreadful?

Because there are plenty of greedy unscrupulous bosses prepared to employ(exploit) them and the authorities largely look the other way?

They aren't exactly living in laps of luxury when they get there are they?

theological

Donald Trump wrote: »

Could they be "successful". Yes of course they could. Could they do better outside the club than inside it? Highly unlikely.

So I have one question for people who have your viewpoint. You think it is a disadvantage to have an agreement with the EU. Because it places restrictions yadda yadda. Do you not think that other countries might also place restrictions? US says "we'll do this deal but you have to restrict what you buy from China and you can't do a deal for the same product with someone else until 2030". You think that that can't or won't happen?

If the US decides it wants to ban Huawei then the EU can say "do whatever you want, we'll do what we want". Will the UK on it's own be able to do the same when standing on it's own in practice?

Your two examples, Canada and Australia, are both vast territories with huge natural resources btw. Resources the UK does not have (anymore)

I don't think it would be a disadvantage to have a free trade agreement with the EU. I want an agreement with it and other countries.

EU membership. Well, the ship has sailed on that. It should have been settled in 2016. There are benefits and drawbacks to EU membership. The people have voted on three separate occasions to say they still want to leave. I'm not going to argue against democracy.

A looser arrangement with the EU seems to be what the people want. A good trading relationship but no membership of the political project. That's a reasonable position.

The UK has lots of non-natural resources to export from insurance to education. The UK seriously outperforms as a small island on the top of Europe.

RasTa

theological wrote: »

If the UK is so terrible why are you living there?

My experience of the UK seems to be pretty different to yours also. It's a great outward looking country. I've been pretty blessed I would say, I'm thankful to have a good and an interesting job and I plan to spend many more years if not the rest of my life here.

My experience of the NHS when I had to use it was that I had pretty good care for nothing. The healthcare system is certainly better than Ireland's where you have to pay for GP visits.

Also - why do you think refugees are so keen to leave France to come to the UK if it is so dreadful?


Super so the UK will be fine outside of the EU. I'm glad we've settled that.

I never said it was terrible. It is terrible for certain people though and I'm shocked at the amount of homeless people around and the state of the NHS.

Foodbank stuff too is mental. I'm in Salford, 10min drive from the city and media city.

I did try and go to the doctor over here once but was told it would take over 3 weeks to get an appointment.

theological

theological wrote: »

Super so the UK will be fine outside of the EU. I'm glad we've settled that.

There is a big difference between existing outside the EU and suddenly going it alone. The gap between leaving and getting the deals it strives for globally will likely be many years of either WTO tariffs or zero tariffs.

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a big difference between existing outside the EU and suddenly going it alone. The gap between leaving and getting the deals it strives for globally will likely be many years of either WTO tariffs or zero tariffs.

but Japan seems to do just fine and nobody questiosn it. Hmmmm

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

but Japan seems to do just fine and nobody questiosn it. Hmmmm

Pick which would be better for the UK..

1: Never been in the EU and has deals already established all around the world. Its economy is built upon this position.

2: Leaves the EU and has no deals or history of making deals with countries around the world.

theological

Deleted User wrote: »

Pick which would be better for the UK..

1: Never been in the EU and has deals already established all around the world. Its economy is built upon this position.

2: Leaves the EU and has no deals or history of making deals with countries around the world.

So are you arguing that the UK should have never joined the EU then?

I would agree with you possibly if I had a time machine. In hindsight I don't think the UK ever suited EU membership. It was half-hearted about its membership the whole way through.

I agree with you that building up a trade negotiation capacity is going to be hard work but it will be good for the UK to have one. It is a negative aspect of EU membership to have lost it in the first place.

Your post isn't exactly a shining advertisement for EU membership and I'm not sure the UK has ever had a compelling case for it. The EU is also a different beast to the EEC and it's a perfectly reasonable position to leave in the absence of a compelling case.

To be honest I just voted remain to keep the status quo. I don't think it was a good reason in hindsight. I suspect this is true of a lot of the then 48%.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

but Japan seems to do just fine and nobody questiosn it. Hmmmm

Japan have well established electronics and motor industries that are renowned for high quality.

The UK’s equivalent would be its financial industry - it’s future outside of the EU is already uncertain due to issues around passporting rights, a strong and stable currency and data protection. The UK can’t even publish a list of honours recipients without causing a massive data protection gaffe.

Yet I’m sure in me pointing that out you’ll write it off as “remain bias” rather than actually sit down and think about it for a minute.

cryptocurrency

Deleted User wrote: »

Pick which would be better for the UK..

1: Never been in the EU and has deals already established all around the world. Its economy is built upon this position.

2: Leaves the EU and has no deals or history of making deals with countries around the world.

The EU caused brexit so yes the UK is right to move.

Tax Harmonisation -- EU are making enough moves on this and a disaster to the UK -UK Leaves
EU Army - Not in the UK's national secuirty interest - UK must and will be strong against its formation - UK Leaves
Federal Europe - Something strongly hated by sane EU citizens, not in the UK's interest - UK Leaves
Border Controls - Not a EU storng point - UK population has serious concerns - EU can't fix - UK Leaves

Seems a simple choice to me. The EU in it's current form and it's current trajectory is not in the interest of the UK or it's people. The currect call was made, many times. Staying in the EU would be economically catastrophic for the UK.

cryptocurrency

KildareP wrote: »

Japan have well established electronics and motor industries that are renowned for high quality.

The UK’s equivalent would be its financial industry - it’s future outside of the EU is already uncertain due to issues around passporting rights, a strong and stable currency and data protection. The UK can’t even publish a list of honours recipients without causing a massive data protection gaffe.

Yet I’m sure in me pointing that out you’ll write it off as “remain bias” rather than actually sit down and think about it for a minute.

How naive

The honours list was leaked, it had some controversial name on it and some omitted. The leak served it's purpose.

The financial services sector is indeed the UK's most industry. The UK will have full access to the EU and we all know it. There is nothing that has been said that goes against that and it is clear there is no other place that could even dream of taking it's place.

Do be foolish enough to think the UK is vulnerable here.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

How naive

The honours list was leaked, it had some controversial name on it and some omitted. The leak served it's purpose.

The financial services sector is indeed the UK's most industry. The UK will have full access to the EU and we all know it. There is nothing that has been said that goes against that and it is clear there is no other place that could even dream of taking it's place.

Do be foolish enough to think the UK is vulnerable here.

It was uploaded onto a government website? Are you going to tell me it was a remain element in the government that leaked it now?

There has been no indication of an “EU army” either but we are expected to take your post on it as gospel but then me bringing up the risk the UK will be shut out of the EU market is spin?

theological

cryptocurrency wrote: »

How naive

The honours list was leaked, it had some controversial name on it and some omitted. The leak served it's purpose.

The financial services sector is indeed the UK's most industry. The UK will have full access to the EU and we all know it. There is nothing that has been said that goes against that and it is clear there is no other place that could even dream of taking it's place.

Do be foolish enough to think the UK is vulnerable here.

It's worth pointing out that EU member states use the London markets to issue sovereign debts, European businesses use it for issuing debt and equity. London is the only city in Europe with clearing for Euro, Yen, USD and Chinese Yuan. The UK has a continued agreement for derivatives clearing after Brexit anyway.

The point of a financial centre is that lots of trading activity meets in one place. Moving it to different cities isn't quick and it doesn't work. London and Zurich are the only two cities in the world's top ten financial centres.

Most banks have only moved small numbers to other places.

The reality is that the EU needs the financial services infrastructure in London. It cannot be replaced quickly.

theological

theological wrote: »

So are you arguing that the UK should have never joined the EU then?

I would agree with you possibly if I had a time machine. In hindsight I don't think the UK ever suited EU membership. It was half-hearted about its membership the whole way through.

I agree with you that building up a trade negotiation capacity is going to be hard work but it will be good for the UK to have one. It is a negative aspect of EU membership to have lost it in the first place.

Your post isn't exactly a shining advertisement for EU membership and I'm not sure the UK has ever had a compelling case for it. The EU is also a different beast to the EEC and it's a perfectly reasonable position to leave in the absence of a compelling case.

I'm not making that argument but this is the order I would think is best..
Being in the EU and staying > Never being in the EU > Being in it and leaving with a deal > No Deal

As for it being "hard work", I think it will be somewhat more dramatic than that. Globally, only the EU loses out by not getting a deal.. The rest of the world can sit back and wait. The UK won't be able to set arbitrary end dates to trade negotiations and play Mr. Testosterone as crypto describes it.

Every day and month and year of waiting will hurt the UK and I would imagine that will weaken its negotiating position. And having countries, even in the Commonwealth, say they'll wait and see what happens before doing a deal is a forewarning of how difficult it will be compared to negotiating with the EU which has a lot to lose.

cryptocurrency

theological wrote: »

So are you arguing that the UK should have never joined the EU then?

I would agree with you possibly if I had a time machine. In hindsight I don't think the UK ever suited EU membership. It was half-hearted about its membership the whole way through.

I agree with you that building up a trade negotiation capacity is going to be hard work but it will be good for the UK to have one. It is a negative aspect of EU membership to have lost it in the first place.

Your post isn't exactly a shining advertisement for EU membership and I'm not sure the UK has ever had a compelling case for it. The EU is also a different beast to the EEC and it's a perfectly reasonable position to leave in the absence of a compelling case.

To be honest I just voted remain to keep the status quo. I don't think it was a good reason in hindsight. I suspect this is true of a lot of the then 48%.

Most of the latte sipping classes of the likes of north london voted remain based on fear over delayed couscous supplies through dover, cost of cheap aupairs and fear that they might be seen as the love child of Hitler and Himmler as cited by the BBC for agreeing with leave.

These people are not the real world and are not important views. The political plates have shifted and now Labour is the party of the head in the clouds urban types, with the Lib Dems and the Tories are the party of the rest of the nation.

Doubt we will see labour in power for 15 years unless they shake off the urban liberial loons.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU caused brexit so yes the UK is right to move.

Tax Harmonisation -- EU are making enough moves on this and a disaster to the UK -UK Leaves
EU Army - Not in the UK's national secuirty interest - UK must and will be strong against its formation - UK Leaves
Federal Europe - Something strongly hated by sane EU citizens, not in the UK's interest - UK Leaves
Border Controls - Not a EU storng point - UK population has serious concerns - EU can't fix - UK Leaves

Seems a simple choice to me. The EU in it's current form and it's current trajectory is not in the interest of the UK or it's people. The currect call was made, many times. Staying in the EU would be economically catastrophic for the UK.

Just pick #1 or #2, please. It is directly related to what you said before.

theological

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm not making that argument but this is the order I would think is best..
Being in the EU and staying > Never being in the EU > Being in it and leaving with a deal > No Deal

As for it being "hard work", I think it will be somewhat more dramatic than that. Globally, only the EU loses out by not getting a deal.. The rest of the world can sit back and wait. The UK won't be able to set arbitrary end dates to trade negotiations and play Mr. Testosterone as crypto describes it.

Every day and month and year of waiting will hurt the UK and I would imagine that will weaken its negotiating position. And having countries, even in the Commonwealth, say they'll wait and see what happens before doing a deal is a forewarning of how difficult it will be compared to negotiating with the EU which has a lot to lose.

Great so let's have a quick exit and move on?

We agreed the UK will be successful outside of the European Union a few posts ago so we're not expecting the apocalypse.

The only reason you provided for staying in the EU is that it won't rock the boat. The British public disagreed thrice. There is no political will to stay in so it is a case of finding the best solution outside of the EU (and before you ask, yes that means outside of the customs union and the single market).

cryptocurrency

theological wrote: »

Great so let's have a quick exit and move on?

We agreed the UK will be successful outside of the European Union a few posts ago so we're not expecting the apocalypse.

The only reason you provided for staying in the EU is that it won't rock the boat. The British public disagreed thrice. There is no political will to stay in so it is a case of finding the best solution outside of the EU (and before you ask, yes that includes the customs union and the single market).

No CU or SM

theological

theological wrote: »

Great so let's have a quick exit and move on?

We agreed the UK will be successful outside of the European Union a few posts ago so we're not expecting the apocalypse.

The only reason you provided for staying in the EU is that it won't rock the boat. The British public disagreed thrice. There is no political will to stay in so it is a case of finding the best solution outside of the EU (and before you ask, yes that includes the customs union and the single market).

We didn't agree anything. I said no one here thinks countries can't be successful outside the EU. America is successful outside it for example. You know this but just cannot help yourself putting words in people's mouths over and over.

And you missed my point.. I didn't say this wait in 2020 before leaving was going to hurt the UK. I meant every day after they actually leave will hurt it, which is pretty clear since seeking trade deals means the alternative lack of them is a bad thing. And the trade deals it desires will take years.

It just comes down to how badly WTO rules affect the UK economy and how long it would take those deals to show their worth and boost it.


Also, I'm not advocating for them to stay. I desperately want them to leave. The end of 2020 is already too long.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Most of the latte sipping classes of the likes of north london voted remain based on fear over delayed couscous supplies through dover, cost of cheap aupairs and fear that they might be seen as the love child of Hitler and Himmler as cited by the BBC for agreeing with leave.

These people are not the real world and are not important views.

I believe it was you who said something like "a small chance that mandarins might have a minor delay at Dover". Now you trivialise Dover today by talking about couscous. You sound like Dominic Raab in the weeks before he found out Dover was important.

People working in car plants and Airbus are the real world. It is important for them.

10000maniacs

I really can't see Johnson requesting an extention in July. He cannot do it politically. So therefore a cliff edge is almost inevitable this time next year. Ireland has been given a reprieve of 12 months to get our ducks in a row. That is of course great for us. But we will still be facing the same issues in 2021 but will be more prepared hopefully.

10000maniacs

10000maniacs wrote: »

I really can't see Johnson requesting an extention in July. He cannot do it politically. So therefore a cliff edge is almost inevitable this time next year. Ireland has been given a reprieve of 12 months to get our ducks in a row. That is of course great for us. But we will still be facing the same issues in 2021 but will be more prepared hopefully.

We aren't facing a land border so that's a major difference. I guess all Ireland can do is continue to divest itself of UK trade and try to shift as much of it as possible to the EU and beyond.

Ireland will be the worst affected but Johnson's sea border spares the island of the worst effects of a No Deal should it happen.

davedanon

In a torrent of reality-denying, up-is-down, black-is-white fantasising nonsense, the phrase

"The EU caused Brexit"

leapt out at me as a particular highlight.

But, Johnson is a coward, both personally and politically. This legislation preventing an extension request is just posturing. He won't sent the UK off a cliff. But I'm not going to argue it here with a bunch of loopers. Let's just wait for July, and then we'll see. Then we can quote their rambling incoherences back at them. But of course by then they will have retreated to their next fallback position.

Eric Cartman

The people here predicting a rainbow across the uk , sunshine and prosperity for all immediately are just as far off the mark as those predicting the nhs being privatised and 80 hour work weeks and widespread poverty.

The reality of it is probably a minor recession level downturn for a few years after leaving and britain returning to similar levels of prosperity as presently abound.

The biggest challenges will come from forming trade agreements with countries that have said they wont jeopardise EU trade, if the EU starts bullying or threatening other countries for making EU deals then we’ll see the UK forced into getting no deals or bad deals

10000maniacs

Deleted User wrote: »

We aren't facing a land border so that's a major difference. I guess all Ireland can do is continue to divest itself of UK trade and try to shift as much of it as possible to the EU and beyond.

Ireland will be the worst affected but Johnson's sea border spares the island of the worst effects of a No Deal should it happen.

That is true. But we do an enormous amount of our trade with the UK mainland. And by far the best route to the EU for our exports and imports is via the UK. This route will be in serious doubt if there is a cliff edge.

theological

Deleted User wrote: »

We aren't facing a land border so that's a major difference. I guess all Ireland can do is continue to divest itself of UK trade and try to shift as much of it as possible to the EU and beyond.

Ireland will be the worst affected but Johnson's sea border spares the island of the worst effects of a No Deal should it happen.

Or contribute to negotiating the best possible FTA with the least number of barriers. That would be much better than sending goods the long way around Europe.

Britain isn't going to vanish from being Ireland's closest neighbours. Northern Ireland isn't going anywhere also.

theological

theological wrote: »

Or contribute to negotiating the best possible FTA with the least number of barriers. That would be much better than sending goods the long way around Europe.

Britain isn't going to vanish from being Ireland's closest neighbours. Northern Ireland isn't going anywhere also.

You think Ireland should put it in a good word for the UK in the hopes of a deal that those loonie tunes over in London will agree to, instead of preparing ourselves properly, all while Johnson is putting into legislation that there can't be an extension, and will likely use the damage he is willing to cause to Ireland as a bargaining chip?

Nah. I'd rather they just left now with No Deal.

theological

Deleted User wrote: »

You think Ireland should put it in a good word for the UK in the hopes of a deal that those loonie tunes over in London will agree to, instead of preparing ourselves properly, all while Johnson is putting into legislation that there can't be an extension, and will likely use the damage he is willing to cause to Ireland as a bargaining chip?

Nah. I'd rather they just left now with No Deal.

I'm thankful that most Irish people probably don't think the same way as you do.

davedanon

10000maniacs wrote: »

That is true. But we do an enormous amount of our trade with the UK mainland. And by far the best route to the EU for our exports and imports is via the UK. This route will be in serious doubt if there is a cliff edge.

No, our trade with the UK is about 11%. And there is no particular reason to think that through-trade to the EU using the UK landbridge will be adversely affected.

FrancieBrady

theological wrote: »

I'm thankful that most Irish people probably don't think the same way as you do.

Speaking for the nation or have you data on that?

ancapailldorcha

davedanon wrote: »

In a torrent of reality-denying, up-is-down, black-is-white fantasising nonsense, the phrase

"The EU caused Brexit"

leapt out at me as a particular highlight.

But, Johnson is a coward, both personally and politically. This legislation preventing an extension request is just posturing. He won't sent the UK off a cliff. But I'm not going to argue it here with a bunch of loopers. Let's just wait for July, and then we'll see. Then we can quote their rambling incoherences back at them. But of course by then they will have retreated to their next fallback position.

The other thing is that Parliament will likely assert itself to prevent a no deal by the end of next year and that means triggering the extension in July. Averting no deal is the one thing the last Parliament agreed upon. While its makeup has obviously changed, Johnson hasn't stuffed it full of no deal disaster capitalists such that he can just glide through with a crash out Brexit.

He was able to spin his capitulation as victory. I wonder how much farther he can push that.