Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

KWAG2019

Brexit is only at half time if even that. This year will tell a lot. I’m interested now in how much Ireland can screw out of this mess for our own benefit.

KildareP

Kidchameleon wrote: »

The EU are weak & a paper tiger. They said there would be no more negociations after the May "deal"

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/uk/brexit-negotiations-rejected-intl/index.html

After which they completely flip flopped and renegociated with PM Johnson

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-50083026

The EU will concede more soon enough.

Copying my earlier post:

The WA would not be reopened on the then current UK red lines - what was the point in doing so, was the EU’s point of view? If the UK were unwilling to shift why should the EU reopen the WA?

And shift the UK did - no border down the Irish Sea (a DUP “blood red” line) and no backstop mechanism - hence the WA could then be rewritten.

And so it has.
The backstop mechanism is no longer the insurance policy for failure to implement the Alternative Arrangements for the UK-EU border, it’s now the defacto mechanism from Day 1. And that UK blood red line was washed away after the bus was driven over the DUP by Mr. Dead in a Ditch “no extension” (that was actually extended) Johnson.

Only UK has conceded on anything thus far and I expect Johnson’s bluster to fall apart quickly any time he comes up against a red line and a deadline in the future. And no doubt it will be spun again as the EU conceding!

Padre_Pio

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Your argument is semantic. My point stands, the EU went back into talks after the said they would not - weakness showing on their part

And the UK repeatedly failed to leave when they assured the public again and again they would.

You have to admit the last 3 years has been a travesty for the UK.

Kidchameleon

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And the UK repeatedly failed to leave when they assured the public again and again they would.

You have to admit the last 3 years has been a travesty for the UK.

Quite the opposite. There was always going to be a push back by the Europhiles. The UK prevailed in the end

Kidchameleon

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sigh: They always, from the start said they would go back into talks if something workable was presented.

This is untrue, read the link I shared. Any mention of going back to the table was after PM Johnson took over

Padre_Pio

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Quite the opposite. There was always going to be a push back by the Europhiles. The UK prevailed in the end

After 3 prime ministers, two elections, 3 years of struggle, numerous resignations and sackings, a nation divided, renewed calls for Scottish independence, Northern Ireland outside of the customs zone and plenty more to come.

Even now with a majority the UK are in for years of hell negociting with the EU and other countries, paying billions for a divorce bill, managing the Scots and Nordies and trying to rebuild their country.

Feels like world war 1.

Donald Trump

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Your argument is semantic. My point stands, the EU went back into talks after the said they would not - weakness showing on their part

The UK negotiators must be shite then in fairness. Even with such weak "opponents" sitting across the table from them and they can't seem to get the easiest deal in history out of them.

Donald Trump

KildareP wrote: »

I expect Johnson’s bluster to fall apart quickly any time he comes up against a red line and a deadline in the future.

Never!!!!! No bluster there with BoJo. Granted he's looking fairly hearty for a fella who has been dead in a ditch for the past three months. He sure showed Gerry didn't he!

cryptocurrency

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Oh no, not this again. Haven't read this one in a while. The implied threat is that Britain could make life very difficult for Ireland if it prevents the use of its land-bridge?

Well you see Ireland is the EU so if Britain makes life difficult for Ireland it's making like difficult for the EU. Britain can point a gun at Ireland alright, it's just that Brussels has a cannon pointed at London.

Also, Ireland is already developing alternative routes to ameliorate any potential disruption. Geography is destiny and Britain is pretty much encircled by the EU.

Did you really type that???

I would well believe the EU have a cannon to point as I'd say that's as advanced as their military tech gets.

I was pointing out the ludicrous statement about sealed containers...you need to think long about hard about that before posting such nonsense.

cryptocurrency

Padre_Pio wrote: »

And the UK repeatedly failed to leave when they assured the public again and again they would.

You have to admit the last 3 years has been a travesty for the UK.

See my earlier posts..cries on the dates are just the last few punches of a utterly defeated remainer doormat.

It happened, the WA was reopened, the election was a landslide, the law was changed to focus the minds on no extension. No deal is back in play and a trump card.

The rest of what you cry is just noise. Nothing but noise.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

See my earlier posts..cries on the dates are just the last few punches of a utterly defeated remainer doormat.

It happened, the WA was reopened, the election was a landslide, the law was changed to focus the minds on no extension. No deal is back in play and a trump card.

The rest of what you cry is just noise. Nothing but noise.

Noise, only because you don’t want to hear it.

Ireland has what it needs now - no physical border on this island and the best it can hope for in the circumstances. Time for the UK to actually get on with the thing they’ve been banging on endlessly about for the last 3 years.

cryptocurrency

KildareP wrote: »

Noise, only because you don’t want to hear it.

Ireland has what it needs now - no physical border on this island and the best it can hope for in the circumstances. Time for the UK to actually get on with the thing they’ve been banging on endlessly about for the last 3 years.

Grand, sounds like everyone is happy then. Won't need to see the endless obsession on Twitter, Facebook or forums by non-British people about brexit and wild hysterical claims about things that are not going to happen happening....such as the plague of locusts or medicine supplies being blocked by the French and Belgium armies armed to the teeth with catapults and swiss army knifes...or cannons.

FrancieBrady

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Quite the opposite. There was always going to be a push back by the Europhiles. The UK prevailed in the end

The EU TOLD THERESA MAY what the terms for re-opening the WA negotiations.

Stop with the bluster Kid.

However, the EU has already told Britain it will only look at the deal again if the U.K. “evolves” its stance on a future relationship with the bloc.

Padre_Pio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

See my earlier posts..cries on the dates are just the last few punches of a utterly defeated remainer doormat.

It happened, the WA was reopened, the election was a landslide, the law was changed to focus the minds on no extension. No deal is back in play and a trump card.

The rest of what you cry is just noise. Nothing but noise.

The WA was reopened and the hated backstop became the frontstop. Happy days for us, not so good for NI unionists.

How is it noise? It nearly tore the country apart. There is nothing to show that negociations will get any easier for the UK. Their history has been abysmal up to now.

I admire your enthusiasm, but you've no evidence to show that any of this will work out well for the UK. It's been awful up to now.

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

by non-British people about brexit

Are you Irish or British?

cryptocurrency

Padre_Pio wrote: »

The WA was reopened and the hated backstop became the frontstop. Happy days for us, not so good for NI unionists.

How is it noise? It nearly tore the country apart. There is nothing to show that negociations will get any easier for the UK. Their history has been abysmal up to now.

I admire your enthusiasm, but you've no evidence to show that any of this will work out well for the UK. It's been awful up to now.

Front stop???? How's that work. The backstop/front stop was an "insurance policy " and kept the UK or at least the North locked in until the EU let's them go. The current situation scraps all that and has no deal back on the table so if the EU plays funny buggers...thats very different to what you claim.

Stop dressing up nonsense as a win

cryptocurrency

Double post

cryptocurrency

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Front stop???? How's that work. The backstop/front stop was an "insurance policy " and kept the UK or at least the North locked in until the EU let's them go. The current situation scraps all that and has no deal back on the table so if the EU plays funny buggers...thats very different to what you claim.

Stop dressing up nonsense as a win

The UK has "No trade deal" on the table.. It's an extremely weak gambit since it is now going to enter trade negotiations which must pass over thirty European parliaments on the first go. No second chance.

It has nothing to do with the EU playing "funny buggers". Every country now has to use its sovereignty to approve whatever deal might be negotiated. It will be an interesting lesson in how the EU works.

KildareP

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Front stop???? How's that work. The backstop/front stop was an "insurance policy " and kept the UK or at least the North locked in until the EU let's them go. The current situation scraps all that and has no deal back on the table so if the EU plays funny buggers...thats very different to what you claim.

Stop dressing up nonsense as a win

The WAB mandates no hard border on island of Ireland which is completely separate to a no trade deal scenario in Dec 2020.

If the UK-EU fails to agree a trade deal in Dec 2020, the WAB still very much stands. It does not terminate just because no trade deal was reached.

Unless, of course, the UK wants to renege on it’s signed agreements?
That’ll bode really well in their trade negotiations.

KWAG2019

In the event of No Deal the Brits fulfil the WAB by having no hard border. The EU will not be able to tolerate no border and the EU will make Ireland create a custom border.

My money is on No Deal or an EU cave in.

KildareP

KWAG2019 wrote: »

In the event of No Deal the Brits fulfil the WAB by having no hard border. The EU will not be able to tolerate no border and the EU will make Ireland create a custom border.

My money is on No Deal or an EU cave in.

The WAB covers this - the NI is bound to align to the EU for four years and then Stormont gets a vote.

The only way around that is for the UK to renege on an international treaty.

That’ll send a great message out to the trade negotiators around the globe who the UK already have met, or are hoping to meet, to sign a trade deal.

Padre_Pio

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Front stop???? How's that work. The backstop/front stop was an "insurance policy " and kept the UK or at least the North locked in until the EU let's them go. The current situation scraps all that and has no deal back on the table so if the EU plays funny buggers...thats very different to what you claim.

Stop dressing up nonsense as a win

There is no chance of a no deal.
That's totally off the table now Boris has a majority.

It's a total win for the EU. A hard border in Ireland was a huge point of contention and now it's solved in our favour.

So now it's Brexit for 3/4 of the UK

KWAG2019

KWAG2019 wrote: »

In the event of No Deal the Brits fulfil the WAB by having no hard border. The EU will not be able to tolerate no border and the EU will make Ireland create a custom border.

My money is on No Deal or an EU cave in.

Utterly naive.

The EU has listened and respected Ireland's position to the point where the UK has had to ask for multiple extensions. The US has warned that breaking the GFA will mean no trade deal.

And then you come here and tell us that the UK will have fulfilled its obligations by not putting up a border.

Do you even believe what you write? Do you not think the EU and the US will account for this? We're not in a small claims court here. Wording means little. This is diplomacy and the UK needs every favour it can find.

First Up

theological wrote:

I don't see why the UK won't be able to negotiate FTAs with other countries when smaller countries have managed to do so with success. Australia and Canada are two examples.

A good question to continue the discussion with would be why do you think the UK cannot be successful outside of the European Union when many other countries are?

The UK has to negotiate trade terms with not just the EU (45% of UK exports, 50% of UK imports) but also with everyone else with whom it has traded as part of the EU for more than 45 years.

Trade agreements are not "blanket" free trade agreements (unless you are both in something like the Single Market.) They are negotiated item by item, with the interests of the parties on both sides defended and haggled over. Tarrifs, quotas and quality standards all come into play and the people across the table are well aware of the terms you offer and offered to you by others. Its a multi layered chess game covering thousands of items from chemicals to electronic components to food. Some for consumption, some for processing, some as components. The UK now has to get itself ready to join the fun, having had nobody doing any of it since the early 1970s.

And that's just the trade terms under which UK companies will be allowed compete for business. A "trade agreement" guarantees you nothing. The UK companies who now do 46% of their exports to markets in Europe will have to modify products, recruit and deploy new sales teams, establish new shipping, storage and distribution centres in far flung locations - and all while trying to retain their European business without the seamless access they enjoyed as part of the Single Market.

Does that answer your question?

Tony EH

Padre_Pio wrote: »

After 3 prime ministers, two elections, 3 years of struggle, numerous resignations and sackings, a nation divided, renewed calls for Scottish independence, Northern Ireland outside of the customs zone and plenty more to come.

Even now with a majority the UK are in for years of hell negotiating with the EU and other countries, paying billions for a divorce bill, managing the Scots and Nordies and trying to rebuild their country.

Feels like world war 1.

And all because some rich, privileged, business classes in England didn't want to follow a few regulations with a trading bloc.

Eric Cartman

Tony EH wrote: »

And all because some rich, privileged, business classes in England didn't want to follow a few regulations with a trading bloc.

Ahh yes, a few rich business people are 52% of the voting population, or are we peddling the working class being hoodwinked by JRM and farage angle on that too ?

Tony EH

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Ahh yes, a few rich business people are 52% of the voting population, or are we peddling the working class being hoodwinked by JRM and farage angle on that too ?

Fooled by lies and worn down by years of repeated haggling.

KWAG2019

Deleted User wrote: »

Utterly naive.

The EU has listened and respected Ireland's position to the point where the UK has had to ask for multiple extensions. The US has warned that breaking the GFA will mean no trade deal.

And then you come here and tell us that the UK will have fulfilled its obligations by not putting up a border.

Do you even believe what you write? Do you not think the EU and the US will account for this? We're not in a small claims court here. Wording means little. This is diplomacy and the UK needs every favour it can find.

Wishful thinking. Elements of the current US Congress have pointed to need to uphold GFA.

The EU has no need to do any more for Ireland per se; this is about the trade deal. I can’t see the EU having a unified position and I think some like Orban in Hungary would welcome a deal that allowed UK cherrypicking status so that the EU could be wound back to a previous iteration ie a union of nation states. The UK is in a stronger position because Johnson has no fear of No Deal and is a gambler. The EU is hamstrung. I think we are looking at No Deal or a Brexit suiting the Brits. The latter might be no bad thing and actually rein in EU federalists who are risking too much. We will see.

KWAG2019

KWAG2019 wrote: »

Wishful thinking. Elements of the current US Congress have pointed to need to uphold GFA.

The EU has no need to do any more for Ireland per se; this is about the trade deal. I can’t see the EU having a unified position and I think some like Orban in Hungary would welcome a deal that allowed UK cherrypicking status so that the EU could be wound back to a previous iteration ie a union of nation states. The UK is in a stronger position because Johnson has no fear of No Deal and is a gambler. The EU is hamstrung. I think we are looking at No Deal or a Brexit suiting the Brits. The latter might be no bad thing and actually rein in EU federalists who are risking too much. We will see.

Over 30 parliaments, many of which are far removed from the channel, are going to sign off on a deal that is in the UK's favour..

If has nothing to do with Johnson the gambler. He has sidestepped parliament on his end of the deal but has to create something that dozens of others have to pass on the first shot because there's no extension. How much testosterone do you think he has. Has he the balls to risk it all for one small item a faraway country might vote No because of.

Can't wait to see how it turns out.

KWAG2019

Deleted User wrote: »

Over 30 parliaments, many of which are far removed from the channel, are going to sign off on a deal that is in the UK's favour..

If has nothing to do with Johnson the gambler. He has sidestepped parliament on his end of the deal but has to create something that dozens of others have to pass on the first shot because there's no extension. How much testosterone do you think he has. Has he the balls to risk it all for one small item a faraway country might vote No because of.

Can't wait to see how it turns out.

The deal will be in the interest of the EU member states economy too. It will be in UK favour because the EU doesn’t have the unity of the will to treat the UK like a true 3rd country. Johnson is fundamentally correct about things when he sees it as a political issue. Laws, as we al know, are for small people and small countries.