Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

RobMc59

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

They wouldn't be noticed among all the other people from a unionist background living here, especially in Dublin. According to this from the 2011 Census, when the economy was dire: 37,900 in NI were born in Ireland, representing almost 1 in 5 of the total, while 58,500 in Ireland were born in NI. I can't find any further breakdown on the community background of that 58,500.

You can be certain the figure is a lot higher now that the economy is better.

Almost everyone in NI was born in Ireland, that is why they are Irish citizens.

They have the OPTION to be Irish citizens but are born in NI so are recognized as British,especially as Ireland has no claim on NI according to the GFA.

El_Duderino 09

First Up wrote: »

The withdrawal agreement took months to negotiate and runs to 600 pages. It will not be revisited.

The only scope for negotiation is in Westminster.

Saying that with certainty is a mistake. Nothing is certain, number of pages in the agreement notwithstanding.

El_Duderino 09

Eric Cartman wrote: »

and presuming the EU will say times up in october, thats the hard deadline ?

Yes.

Salary Negotiator

Eric Cartman wrote: »

and presuming the EU will say times up in october, thats the hard deadline ?

The EU as it stands don’t really have a say, it’s up to the UK to request an extension or withdraw Art. 50.

If an extension is requested then the EU would have to agree and that isn’t a forgone conclusion.

Not sure that answers your question, I don’t fully understand what you mean.

First Up

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Saying that with certainty is a mistake. Nothing is certain, number of pages in the agreement notwithstanding.

We'll see.

Eric Cartman

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

The EU as it stands don’t really have a say, it’s up to the UK to request an extension or withdraw Art. 50.

If an extension is requested then the EU would have to agree and that isn’t a forgone conclusion.

Not sure that answers your question, I don’t fully understand what you mean.

to be honest, deal/no deal whatever, I just want an actual conclusion to the whole thing instead. The popcorn munching sh*tshow lover in me wants to see them do it , whether they succeed or fail after, the Irish business owner in me wants them to just stop so that it doesnt drag us down with them. Tough call.

Kidchameleon

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And when it does happen you can close your account in embarrassment rather than face up to the claims you made, unfortunately real people will have to reap the whirlwind people like you created. A whirlwind of lies, pride and jingoistic 'Great Britain' bull****.

Well if im wrong I'll be manly enough to admit it so no need to close my account

Seth Brundle

Eric Cartman wrote: »

and presuming the EU will say times up in october, thats the hard deadline ?

There are the following options:
1. UK revoked Art 50 and it's back to the way it was before they foolishly triggered Art 50.
2. They accept the withdrawal agreement and exit with something
3. The UK seeks an another extension and the remaining EU 27 agree to it. It is not definite that the EU will agree to an extension either.
4. They crash out either by choice or by not doing 1, 2 or 3 before Oct 31. At this point despite the nonsense from the likes of Kidchameleon, the UK is screwed.

Seth Brundle

RobMc59 wrote: »

They have the OPTION to be Irish citizens but are born in NI so are recognized as British,especially as Ireland has no claim on NI according to the GFA.

Actually people can choose to be British, Irish or both. Many in NI do not consider themselves to be Irish and similarly many do not consider themselves to be British.
All NI citizens are not automatically British.

davedanon

McWilliams knocks one out of the park, for once. If only I could watch Boris read it tomorrow morning.

https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848

davedanon

Google the following: Brexit has turned into a hostage situation. Boris Johnson is the kidnapper, Ireland is the captive and the backstop is the ransom. The British message to the EU is, “Drop the backstop or we’ll kill the hostage in a no-deal shootout”.

...to get around the paywall.

Harika

davedanon wrote: »

Google the following: Brexit has turned into a hostage situation. Boris Johnson is the kidnapper, Ireland is the captive and the backstop is the ransom. The British message to the EU is, “Drop the backstop or we’ll kill the hostage in a no-deal shootout”.

...to get around the paywall.

I think this is also a great point

London’s new Brexit strategy is to inflict as much commercial damage on Ireland as possible. Given that Ireland didn’t ask for, or vote in, the Brexit referendum and, in recent decades, has been an impeccable neighbor and a calm, dependable partner in the British-created tinderbox that is Northern Ireland, this new aggression seems unjustified. However British sensitivity towards Irish concerns has never figured highly in Anglo-Irish affairs."

The biggest weakness and also the strongest asset is Ireland, while the rest of the EU is geographically independent from the UK, Ireland needs its goods to pass through the UK.
And also this point

The UK must eventually do a trade deal with the EU because 46 per cent of UK exports go to the EU and 53 per cent of UK imports come from the EU. No matter how the hostage drama turns out, and no matter what the political and economic fallout, the UK will be back at the table soon. The more chaos at British ports, the shorter the self-imposed mercantile lockout.

I think there you see the BoJo tactic, get No Deal over the line and then negotiate a free trade deal, unshackled from the TM negotiation results. A result that was preferred by Brexit voters in the referendum.

ChikiChiki

davedanon wrote: »

McWilliams knocks one out of the park, for once. If only I could watch Boris read it tomorrow morning.

https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848

I think that one of the, if not the greatest articles I have ever read.

Can only imagine some pesky advisor briefing Boris tomorrow "Prime Minister, you may want to read this article in the FT... :pac:

Lord Glentoran

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I think that one of the, if not the greatest articles I have ever read.

Can only imagine some pesky advisor briefing Boris tomorrow "Prime Minister, you may want to read this article in the FT... :pac:

No, it will be Cummings sending one of his 7,000 word blog pieces as a memo, about Bismarck or speed learning or some such nonsense.

Timberrrrrrrr

davedanon wrote: »

McWilliams knocks one out of the park, for once. If only I could watch Boris read it tomorrow morning.

https://www.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848

Behind a paywall

FrancieBrady

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Behind a paywall

Googling the block of text in the original post and clicking on the link allowed me to read it.

First Up

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I think that one of the, if not the greatest articles I have ever read.

Can only imagine some pesky advisor briefing Boris tomorrow "Prime Minister, you may want to read this article in the FT... :pac:

It should be prefaced; "warning, contains facts."

jonnogael

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Simple, it does not care about democracy. I used to be pro EU by the way.

So was Boris Johnson.:D

davedanon

davedanon wrote: »

Google the following: Brexit has turned into a hostage situation. Boris Johnson is the kidnapper, Ireland is the captive and the backstop is the ransom. The British message to the EU is, “Drop the backstop or we’ll kill the hostage in a no-deal shootout”.

...to get around the paywall.

Excellent article; free from the verbosity and desperate search to coin a neologism which marks far too many of McWilliams' articles.

The comments section is great craic in a sort of "If you don't laugh, you'll cry" way. Somebody with the nick 'Mark MacGann' made a great post and somebody else responds 'Artemis1 2 hours ago. @ Mark MacGann I think I love you.' hehe.

More seriously, there's a massive coarseness in the debate over there, just as there is in the comments under the Brexit-related BBC webpages (and no doubt on all the other websites).

Metronome 2 hours ago. The FT editors and owners should ask themselves whether it is appropriate to publish blatantly biased articles which stir hatred between peoples. This is a truly grotesque and shameful piece.

Metronome 57 minutes ago. It is representative of what the Irish media have been telling the public and therefore representative of what that pubic thinks is going on. I think that it is a vile article which stirs hatred.

Custodia Legis 41 minutes ago @Metronome. You should read the Irish Times. Then you will understand where the vitriol comes from.

1000 1 hour ago. What an idiot...ireland will lose massively as the UK creates a vastly superior corporate taxation and business environment aligned with the US and ireland will become starved of capital.

Touché to this response:

sudonym 1 hour ago.@1000 Why would US companies put their European headquarters outside the EU? They don't want alignment with the US, they want alignment with Europe.

To be fair, with the pound tanking, it does become profitable to hire within the UK because it becomes a low wage market to export from (if you can get your exports out).

hehe.

Nick.H 2 hours ago. David McWilliams fails to acknowledge what most knew from the start, it was shameful of the EU to make Ireland front and centre of their whole deal. The two nations will sort it out together.

Aw, bless. Just like "we" sorted it out for the past 400 years? Beautiful scapegoat of the evil EU again and plucky little England coming to defend the poor Irish against the aggressor.

In their surrender terms to the EU, could the English be forced to finally teach their population history as a condition, and to be forced to end their denial of imperial crimes with this sanitised "white man's burden"/"greater good"/"saving plucky little Belgium" stuff in all their poppy incarnations (if Brexit keeps going, expect the poppy stuff to be even more vociferous, more visible and more militarised)?

El_Duderino 09

The generally a good article by mcwilliams. Hit I disagree that the UK is expecting Ireland to "come to heel" and fall in line. I'd say it's a sign that they're desperate. They're hoping that Ireland helps in the negotiations by appealing to Brussels on the uk's behalf, not expecting. It's just a part of their negotiation position, it's really not a colonial thing.

It saddens me to see Irish people Interpret everything GB does as further e ide ce that they see us as a colony. Unfortunately I think it's mostly Irish people who think like that. Not the British.

cameramonkey

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The generally a good article by mcwilliams. Hit I disagree that the UK is expecting Ireland to "come to heel" and fall in line. I'd say it's a sign that they're desperate. They're hoping that Ireland helps in the negotiations by appealing to Brussels on the uk's behalf, not expecting. It's just a part of their negotiation position, it's really not a colonial thing.

It saddens me to see Irish people Interpret everything GB does as further e ide ce that they see us as a colony. Unfortunately I think it's mostly Irish people who think like that. Not the British.

it does not help when UK minister think that making Ireland go hungry might be a good bargaining stance. The UK wants Ireland to come to heel, they have caught themselves in a trap of their own making, the back stop. Now they are flailing around looking for way out, they will bring us down to save themselves if they could. That is the way they are.

davedanon

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The generally a good article by mcwilliams. Hit I disagree that the UK is expecting Ireland to "come to heel" and fall in line. I'd say it's a sign that they're desperate. They're hoping that Ireland helps in the negotiations by appealing to Brussels on the uk's behalf, not expecting. It's just a part of their negotiation position, it's really not a colonial thing.

It saddens me to see Irish people Interpret everything GB does as further e ide ce that they see us as a colony. Unfortunately I think it's mostly Irish people who think like that. Not the British.

Do you have any evidence for this, or is it just wot you reckon?

Peregrinus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The generally a good article by mcwilliams. Hit I disagree that the UK is expecting Ireland to "come to heel" and fall in line. I'd say it's a sign that they're desperate. They're hoping that Ireland helps in the negotiations by appealing to Brussels on the uk's behalf, not expecting. It's just a part of their negotiation position, it's really not a colonial thing.

It saddens me to see Irish people Interpret everything GB does as further e ide ce that they see us as a colony. Unfortunately I think it's mostly Irish people who think like that. Not the British.

I have to disagree. Why would anyone in the UK hope that Ireland will "appeal to Brussels on the UK's behalf" when that means, effectively, subordinating Ireland's interests to those of the UK? If they hope this, it's because they expect Ireland to attach no weight to its own interests, and the most likely explanation for this is that it's a unconscious thing, the result of the fact that they themselves do not recognise, or discount, Irish interests, and regard this a natural state of affairs.

Peregrinus

Harika wrote: »

. . . I think there you see the BoJo tactic, get No Deal over the line and then negotiate a free trade deal, unshackled from the TM negotiation results. A result that was preferred by Brexit voters in the referendum.

The problem with this thinking is that it fails to recognise that the TM negotiation results were the outcome of:

(a) the UK negotiating position (the "red lines"); and

(b) the EU negotiating position, which in turn is the outcome of the EU's situation, interests and priorities.

(It was said at the time, in fact, that May's deal was pretty much the best deal she could have hoped for, given her own negotiating position, and considerable better than the deal she might have feared.)

After no-deal the EU's situation, interests and priorities don't change - why would the? - so its negotiating position for the future relationship agreement is not going to be materially different from its negotiating position for the withdrawal agreement. The only factor that Johnson can exert any control over is the UK negotiating position so, if he wants a different outcome, he'll need to adopt a different negotiating position. But he has given no clue as to what that will be, or even that he recognises the need to do so.

In so far as there's a strategy at play here among the hard brexiters, I think it's that they take seriously their own claim that the Irish/EU stance is just a pretended concern about the border, disguising an imperialist plot to prevent or at least soften Brexit. And once hard Brexit has happened that objective is no longer acheivable, so Ireland/EU will stop caring about the border.

Ain't gonnna happen, guys.

El_Duderino 09

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to disagree. Why would anyone in the UK hope that Ireland will "appeal to Brussels on the UK's behalf" when that means, effectively, subordinating Ireland's interests to those of the UK? If they hope this, it's because they expect Ireland to attach no weight to its own interests, and the most likely explanation for this is that it's a unconscious thing, the result of the fact that they themselves do not recognise, or discount, Irish interests, and regard this a natural state of affairs.

The bit in bold is a faulty premise. They don't hope Ireland will subordinate itself, they're pushing the line that Ireland relays on the UK for exports. The more the British economy suffers, the more the Irish economy suffers (all true). No Deal will cause the British economy to suffer more hence it's in Ireland's interest for the UK to get a deal.

Is it so unimaginable that the UK actually sees Ireland as being in an influential position in this instance? They're asking Ireland to act in its own interest to help the UK get a deal.

Plus the potential for violence if there's a hard border. Same logic applies. Ireland doesn't want a hard border so it makes sense for Ireland to appeal to Brussels to go along with the digital border (almost no border).

I don't think Ireland will ultimately do either of those things but it's definitely worth the UK trying. Do you think, at some point in the future, it will be time to drop the inferiority complex about the UK? The UK generally like the Irish in spite of the fact that Irish people are expecting the worst (Ireland will come to heel attitude) and are often quite rude to them.

Calina

If the UK had avoided the language of hostage taking with respect to Ireland and had demonstrated the kind of diplomacy Ireland has they might not be where they are now. Recall Patel - the current Home Secretary - suggested the UK starve Ireland so that the UK get its own way. The current Foreign Secretary negotiated an agreement which he then voted against.

A lot of chickens are coming home to roost and they are all British chickens. A little self awareness in London would help. A little more diplomacy, absent from the UK political arena at present would go some way towards repairing relations. But it will not allow the EU to break its own rules.

The UK has unfortunately learned that its previous modus operandi - taking what it wants - doesn't work with partners who can't be attacked by gunboat. And it has learned it too late.

The changes have to come from the UK. Negotiating in good faith is necessary. I don't think there is a political leader in the UK capable of this atm. They have created a dangerously divided society. Brexit is incidental to the problems the UK has and has caused for itself.

Igotadose

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Do you think, at some point in the future, it will be time to drop the inferiority complex about the UK? The UK generally like the Irish in spite of the fact that Irish people are expecting the worst (Ireland will come to heel attitude) and are often quite rude to them.

It's actually what happens to a bully, when the bullied victim bloodies their nose.
All the UK's *got* is, 'they need us more than we need them' (bully speak for the EU), and "Ireland will come to heel" - the classic 'I always could bully wimpy, he'll do what I want'

It's the UK with the inferiority complex here, trying to assert themselves like bullies.

Unfortunately, this is politics, and they've got nothing. As the excellent article pointed out, the data are against the UK, facts still matter even in Brexit land.

Imagine if they magically ratify the WA or a 'border down the Irish Sea' version. The trade agreement will show the negotiators that the UK, itself, can be pushed over.

Peregrinus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The bit in bold is a faulty premise. They don't hope Ireland will subordinate itself, they're pushing the line that Ireland relays on the UK for exports. The more the British economy suffers, the more the Irish economy suffers (all true). No Deal will cause the British economy to suffer more hence it's in Ireland's interest for the UK to get a deal.

Is it so unimaginable that the UK actually sees Ireland as being in an influential position in this instance? They're asking Ireland to act in its own interest to help the UK get a deal.

Plus the potential for violence if there's a hard border. Same logic applies. Ireland doesn't want a hard border so it makes sense for Ireland to appeal to Brussels to go along with the digital border (almost no border).

I don't think Ireland will ultimately do either of those things but it's definitely worth the UK trying. Do you think, at some point in the future, it will be time to drop the inferiority complex about the UK? The UK generally like the Irish in spite of the fact that Irish people are expecting the worst (Ireland will come to heel attitude) and are often quite rude to them.

Well, put it this way; they’re hoping that Ireland will buy into the UK’s determination (or, Brexiters’ determination) of what is in Ireland’s interests. And that’s a very selective determination.

It’s true that Ireland “relies on the UK for exports”, but not for the reason you might think. The reliance arises mainly because most of our exports go through the UK (as in, they travel via the UK to further-off destinations) rather than because they go to the UK.

The percentage of Irish exports that goes to the UK has been declining steadily for many years; it’s now about 11% and is expected to continue falling. Obviously, recession in the UK is bad for Irish businesses that export to the UK and, all other things being equal, we’d prefer they didn’t have a recession. But it’s not exactly our biggest Brexit-related concern, and it certainly isn’t a big driver of our Brexit position.

A bigger concern is the exports that go through the UK. 85% of our exports to the rest of the EU go by lorry through the UK - the “landbridge”. Obviously, they don’t have to go through the UK - in principle other routes are available. But they are slower and/or more expensive, and while we have increased capacity on those routes it is still limited, so rerouting is not the optimal solution, and in some cases it may not even be a viable solution - e.g. highly perishable goods.

Our interest here is threatened if the UK chooses a form of Brexit which results in increased border controls not between IRL and NI, but between IRL/ GB and between GB/rest of EU. This means it’s in our interest to encourage/support the UK in choosing a form of Brexit which keeps them as close as possible to the Single Market and the Customs Union, these being the mechanisms which currently make border controls unnecessary. Conversely, it’s not in our interest to encourage/support the UK in choosing a hard brexit in which they distance themselves from the SM and the CU.

This, sadly, is the form of Brexit the Conservative government choose some months after the referendum in late 2016, and which they have since doubled down on. It is, obviously, unrealistic for anyone in the UK to expect Ireland to welcome or support this; it is very much not in our interests.

Of course, a crash-out no-deal brexit would be even more damaging to the stability and smoothness of Irish trade via the landbridge. So, all other things being equal, the lesser of two evils for us is the managed hard brexit. But you can’t expect us to be enthused about the lesser of two evils.

And, other things aren’t equal. Because of course we’re also concerned about the IRL/NI border. Very concerned. This has its own significant economic implications, but it also has huge social and political implications. And this is in fact the primary driver of our Brexit position.

So, if the UK wants Ireland to support the UK’s brexit position, the UK needs to make it a position which (a) minimises the impact of Brexit on the landbridge trade, and (b) delivers an open border in Ireland, and. Since they’ve plumped for the hard brexit, their capacity to minimise the impact of Brexit on the landbridge trade is limited. So the one thing they really, really need to do in order to win Irish support for their position is demonstrate seriousness about delivering on their no-hard-border guarantee.

And they’re doing precisely the opposite of that, as hard as they can. They are doing everything they possibly could to show that they are violently averse to making the choices they need to make to avoid if a hard border in Ireland is to be avoided. They cannot expect us not to notice this, and they certainly cannot expect us not to be appalled by it.

So, UK voices who appear to think that Ireland ought to support the UK’s Brexit position don’t appear to think that the UK needs to do anything to justify that support. And if they think that the UK’s brexit position is somehow in Ireland’s interests, well, they obviously haven’t devoted a lot of time or effort to reflecting on what Ireland’s interests might be.

First Up

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

The bit in bold is a faulty premise. They don't hope Ireland will subordinate itself, they're pushing the line that Ireland relays on the UK for exports. The more the British economy suffers, the more the Irish economy suffers (all true). No Deal will cause the British economy to suffer more hence it's in Ireland's interest for the UK to get a deal.

11% of Irish exports go to the UK. 51% of Irish exports go to continental EU markets.

El_Duderino 09

First Up wrote: »

11% of Irish exports go to the UK. 51% of Irish exports go to continental EU markets.

That's actually a very selective and misleading stat as it only counts goods and ignores services ( which you didn't state). So goods exported to the UK come to €15bn. services exposed to the UK come to €25 bn. And the UK is out largest services export market.

Does that Impact your argument in any way?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/amount-ireland-trades-with-the-uk-4745788-Jul2019/%3Famp%3D1