Will Britain ever just piss off and get on with Brexit? -mod warning in OP (21/12)

Peregrinus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That's actually a very selective and misleading stat as it only counts goods and ignores services ( which you didn't state). So goods exported to the UK come to €15bn. services exposed to the UK come to €25 bn. And the UK is out largest services export market.

Does that Impact your argument in any way?

Not hugely, I think. While the UK is our largest services export market, it also takes only 6% of our services exports. Which tells you that our services export market is much, much more diversiified than our goods export market. UK is less important to our services exports than it is to our goods exports.

First Up

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

That's actually a very selective and misleading stat as it only counts goods and ignores services ( which you didn't state). So goods exported to the UK come to €15bn. services exposed to the UK come to €25 bn. And the UK is out largest services export market.

Does that Impact your argument in any way?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/amount-ireland-trades-with-the-uk-4745788-Jul2019/%3Famp%3D1

The numbers I've seen have service exports to the UK at 18% of total (24b out of 133b).

But of course Ireland will be damaged by a crash out Brexit; my point is that the UK is mis-calculating the extent of the impact relative to Ireland's trade elsewhere and are over-stating the imaginary leverage they get from it.

Ireland has long made a fundamental strategic decision to align with the EU and this has been reciprocated by not only Brussels but the other 26. Everything else flows from that.

El_Duderino 09

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, put it this way; they’re hoping that Ireland will buy into the UK’s determination (or, Brexiters’ determination) of what is in Ireland’s interests. And that’s a very selective determination.

It’s true that Ireland “relies on the UK for exports”, but not for the reason you might think. The reliance arises mainly because most of our exports go through the UK (as in, they travel via the UK to further-off destinations) rather than because they go to the UK.
[...]
So, UK voices who appear to think that Ireland ought to support the UK’s Brexit position don’t appear to think that the UK needs to do anything to justify that support. And if they think that the UK’s brexit position is somehow in Ireland’s interests, well, they obviously haven’t devoted a lot of time or effort to reflecting on what Ireland’s interests might be.

Fair point a oh Ireland relying on good to go through the UK to Europe. So in other words, it's in Ireland's interest for brexit to have a deal that includes smooth trade through the UK to Europe. That's part of my point. The UK is appealing to Ireland to help it get a better. Most of this post should be directed at someone who actually makes the UK arguments in earnest. I'm just pointing out that the UK is taking a negotiation position so it's not supposed to be an honest and impartial representation of the facts. It's the facts that suit the uk's argument.

It's a negotiation. The UK.is trying to get the Irish support to get the deal they want. It's unlikely to work as I think Ireland is much more likely to side with the EU. it's an example of the UK playing a weak hand as best it can.

El_Duderino 09

First Up wrote: »

The numbers I've seen have service exports to the UK at 18% of total (24b out of 133b).

But of course Ireland will be damaged by a crash out Brexit; my point is that the UK is mis-calculating the extent of the impact relative to Ireland's trade elsewhere and are over-stating the imaginary leverage they get from it.

Ireland has long made a fundamental strategic decision to align with the EU and this has been reciprocated by not only Brussels but the other 26. Everything else flows from that.

I doubt the UK has miscalculated the extent of impact. I think it knows well and is trying to exaggerate it in the hope of getting Irish support. It's a demonstration of the weak position Britain finds itself in, not an example of British expecting Ireland to "come to heel". They know the chances of it working are slim but they're doing it anyway because it's the best chance they have.

First Up

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I doubt the UK has miscalculated the extent of impact. I think it knows well and is trying to exaggerate it in the hope of getting Irish support. It's a demonstration of the weak position Britain finds itself in, not an example of British expecting Ireland to "come to heel". They know the chances of it working are slim but they're doing it anyway because it's the best chance they have.

Well you quoted a comment from a former British Trade Minister and CBI Director who thought 90% of Ireland's trade is with the UK.

There is a vast trough of ignorance permeating the UK's attitude to Brexit. I listened to Ivan Rogers (former UK ambassador to the EU) describe some of his encounters with people who really should know better but who seem to wear their ignorance of matters EU with pride.

Bannasidhe

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I doubt the UK has miscalculated the extent of impact. I think it knows well and is trying to exaggerate it in the hope of getting Irish support. It's a demonstration of the weak position Britain finds itself in, not an example of British expecting Ireland to "come to heel". They know the chances of it working are slim but they're doing it anyway because it's the best chance they have.

Perhaps not "coming to heel" but I do think some members of the British government (and indeed the British public - is the republic the North or the South is a question I have often been asked) cannot fathom that Ireland's interests do not automatically closely align to the UK's interests.

I genuinely think that for many of them they see the republic as being 'independent lite' - not an actual sovereign state with it's own separate complete set of interests that have nothing to do with England but a sort of home rule to the max version of Scotland.

Peregrinus

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Fair point a oh Ireland relying on good to go through the UK to Europe. So in other words, it's in Ireland's interest for brexit to have a deal that includes smooth trade through the UK to Europe. That's part of my point. The UK is appealing to Ireland to help it get a better. Most of this post should be directed at someone who actually makes the UK arguments in earnest. I'm just pointing out that the UK is taking a negotiation position so it's not supposed to be an honest and impartial representation of the facts. It's the facts that suit the uk's argument.

It's a negotiation. The UK.is trying to get the Irish support to get the deal they want. It's unlikely to work as I think Ireland is much more likely to side with the EU. it's an example of the UK playing a weak hand as best it can.

No, they could play it much better.

The key point here is that the best offer the UK is making is a pretty lousy one from Ireland's point of view. So we don't have a huge incentive to expend political capital in support of it. They are basically asking us which end of the stick we'd like, having taken care to dip both ends of the stick in shít first. There may be slightly less shít clinging to one end but, to be honest, that's not a huge motivator.

We've got two primary concerns; the RoI/NI border and the landbridge. If the UK wants us to surrender one of them a pretty basic requirement for being taken seriously is that they should make a dramatically good offer on the other. But nothing like that is happening.

What's going on here, I think, is that the UK - and Brexiters in particular - simply haven't processed the reality of Brexit, in terms of the amount of traction and influence that the UK surrenders through brexiting.

The border in fact provides a neat example. For 50 years, from 1922 to 1972, it was just the UK and Ireland - the EEC (as it then was) started in 1957 but of course played no role at all in UK/Ireland relationships. Throughout that time Ireland was hugely exercised by the border and made considerable efforts, both bilaterally with the UK and internationally in multilateral forums, to highlight its problems with partition and to get action, or even attention. Net result: nothing. Nada. Faic.

The position today could not be more different. The UK embarked on Brexit without giving any though at all to Irish interests or issues, because as far as I can see it automatically assumed that it didn't need to. It had never had to before, after all. So far as I can see this attitude was shared on both sides of the referendum debate. Nobody considered that Irish issues or interests were of any importance; the few who tried to raise them were ignored by one side and slapped down by the other.

But the reality of Brexit is that Irish issues do have traction in a way that they did not before, and they cannot be ignored. This has been met in the UK with denial, incomprehension and even anger, but it hasn't yet been taken on board to the point where they have actually thought through what it means for Brexit, and what kind of Brexit is actually deliverable in a world where Ireland counts for something. They'd like Irish support, but they still can't articulate a convincing rationale for why they should get it, and they haven't asked themselves what they might need to do in order to get it.

El_Duderino 09

First Up wrote: »

Well you quoted a comment from a former British Trade Minister and CBI Director who thought 90% of Ireland's trade is with the UK.

There is a vast trough of ignorance permeating the UK's attitude to Brexit. I listened to Ivan Rogers (former UK ambassador to the EU) describe some of his encounters with people who really should know better but who seem to wear their ignorance of matters EU with pride.

I didn't quote that. Must be mistaking me for someone else.
I imagine there is a lot of ignorance on international trade stats. Who actually ready them unless they need to.

I'd say the man in the street doesn't have a clue about Irish international trade stats. Don't forget that British politicians aren't just talking to Irish people, they're also talking to their own people. It's important for them to keep morale up in their own camp.

That's a bad error quoted above but it's a conflation of two facts. The fact that Ireland does a significant amount of trade with the UK (3rd most for goods and most for services) and the fact that 89% of Ireland's trade with the EU (except UK) goes through the UK on its way to mainland Europe.

Pa ElGrande

Nancy Pelosi says no UK-US trade deal if Brexit risks Irish peace

LONDON — Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, warned Boris Johnson and Donald Trump that Congress will block any trade deal between the U.K. and U.S. that threatens peace in Northern Ireland.

According to a statement from her office, Pelosi said Brexit “cannot be allowed to imperil” the Good Friday Agreement that ended decades of conflict.

source

This is problematic. Ireland is being held hostage by the politics of Washington (Pelosi - Democrats control congress and automatically block the Trump administration) and France/Germany (Christine Lagarde - ECB, Ursula Von Der Leyen - EU Commissioner). The Irish state has no leverage in the politics of the American or European continent and there is every encouragement for them not to negotiate with Britain. The problem becomes that Britain sees the opportunity to use the Irish state as the pawn to force agreement from France & Germany.

El_Duderino 09

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, they could play it much better.

The key point here is that the best offer the UK is making is a pretty lousy one from Ireland's point of view. So we don't have a huge incentive to expend political capital in support of it. They are basically asking us which end of the stick we'd like, having taken care to dip both ends of the stick in shít first. There may be slightly less shít clinging to one end but, to be honest, that's not a huge motivator.

We've got two primary concerns; the RoI/NI border and the landbridge. If the UK wants us to surrender one of them a pretty basic requirement for being taken seriously is that they should make a dramatically good offer on the other. But nothing like that is happening.

Almost all of this is a conversation you should have with someone who makes the UK argument in earnest.

But just look at the sh1tty stick analogy you used. Why, why, why do so many Irish people have to imagine things I terms of the UK beating Ireland with a sh1tty stick?

I simply see it as the UK trying it's best to play a very weak hand. They'd be fools if they didn't try. I don't think it will work but I don't begrudge them an attempt. I don't think they honestly expect it to work. I don't think BJ believes Brexit is good for the UK either. It's just what he needed to say to become PM.

Don't take everything the UK and EU are saying so literally and see it as negotiation positions. It all makes much more sense then. No need for Irish inferiority complex to trump reason. It's just a negotiation.

Professor Moriarty

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Nancy Pelosi says no UK-US trade deal if Brexit risks Irish peace




This is problematic. Ireland is being held hostage by the politics of Washington (Pelosi - Democrats control congress and automatically block the Trump administration) and France/Germany (Christine Lagarde - ECB, Ursula Von Der Leyen - EU Commissioner). The Irish state has no leverage in the politics of the American or European continent and there is every encouragement for them not to negotiate with Britain. The problem becomes that Britain sees the opportunity to use the Irish state as the pawn to force agreement from France & Germany.

That's real politik. We are a very small nation on the edge of Europe bobbing around in the global economy with as much influence over our direction as a football in a river.

Peregrinus

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Nancy Pelosi says no UK-US trade deal if Brexit risks Irish peace

This is problematic. Ireland is being held hostage by the politics of Washington (Pelosi - Democrats control congress and automatically block the Trump administration) and France/Germany (Christine Lagarde - ECB, Ursula Von Der Leyen - EU Commissioner). The Irish state has no leverage in the politics of the American or European continent and there is every encouragement for them not to negotiate with Britain. The problem becomes that Britain sees the opportunity to use the Irish state as the pawn to force agreement from France & Germany.

That's a bizarre take. The notion that Ireland has no leverage in US or EU politics is belied by the very facts you point to. The EU stance on the backstop and the congressional Democratic stance on a UK/US trade deal are both things which Ireland has expended considerable political and diplomatic effort to bring about, and has brought about successfully.

First Up

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

I didn't quote that. Must be mistaking me for someone else.
I imagine there is a lot of ignorance on international trade stats. Who actually ready them unless they need to.

I'd say the man in the street doesn't have a clue about Irish international trade stats. Don't forget that British politicians aren't just talking to Irish people, they're also talking to their own people. It's important for them to keep morale up in their own camp.

That's a bad error quoted above but it's a conflation of two facts. The fact that Ireland does a significant amount of trade with the UK (3rd most for goods and most for services) and the fact that 89% of Ireland's trade with the EU (except UK) goes through the UK on its way to mainland Europe.

You posted a link to his quote and I'd habe expected a Trade Minister to see understanding trade statistics as part of his job spec.

You are correct about the man in the street. Unfortunately the UK allocated him the responsibility for the Brexit decision.

The landbridge is one of several options but its advantages will be largely eroded if UK ports are logjammed. Fortunately there are other options

Professor Moriarty

First Up wrote: »

You posted a link to his quote and I'd habe expected a Trade Minister to see understanding trade statistics as part of his job spec.

You are correct about the man in the street. Unfortunately the UK allocated him the responsibility for the Brexit decision.

The landbridge is one of several options but its advantages will be largely eroded if UK ports are logjammed. Fortunately there are other options

If things get nasty, how much of Ireland's exports could bypass Britain as a landbridge?

First Up

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If things get nasty, how much of Ireland's exports could bypass Britain as a landbridge?

I've not seen a calculation but capacity to French, Belgian and Spanish ports has been substantially increased already and can be increased further.

But some disruption is inevitable.

Peregrinus

Peregrinus wrote: »

That's a bizarre take. The notion that Ireland has no leverage in US or EU politics is belied by the very facts you point to. The EU stance on the backstop and the congressional Democratic stance on a UK/US trade deal are both things which Ireland has expended considerable political and diplomatic effort to bring about, and has brought about successfully.

If a Democrat president was in power and talking about a trade deal, would you expect Pelosi to have made the same comments?

Yes, of course the Irish lobby in the US is fairly strong, but it is also a very convenient political football as well.

knipex

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Id love it to happen. Other countries will watch Britain prosper and then leave themselves without having to worry about "negociating" with the EU. Referendum, Article 50, see yis later lads. No more meddeling from Brussels

Seriously ??

Even now, after all the information that's been made available ? All the promises and comments by the Brexiteers that have proven to be nonsense. The (already) growing attempts to blame all the **** thats about to happen on the Irish or the EU ?

The fact that the latest defense to "prove" that they knew all along that no deal was the most likely option is to replay snippets or remainers talking about eh consequence of a no vote as proof that it was discussed. the same snippets that used to be played as nonsense by remainers as proof of project fear..

After all that you still believe that in 6 months the entire world will see that the UK was right, and its thriving in a world economy where it has not a single, solitary significant trade deal ???

knipex

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Everyone will still trade with Britain dont worry

Of course they will. They will see you anything you want, as long as you have pay for it and buy what ever you want to sell, as long as it meets the required quality.. AND the tariffs are paid.
How will UK dairy farmers compete in EU markets when there are 35% tariffs on UK dairy ?

Or the UK car industry compete with 10% tariffs on all exports to the EU ?

knipex

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Many countries are not in the EU and have negociated their own trade deals.

Of course they have. Most have trade deals with the EU.

How many have trade deals with the UK ??

Not very many. The biggest one Trade wise is Switzerland Details here Every single trade deal currently agreed covers UK exports roughly equal to (ok slightly more) to what the UK currently exports to .... Ireland..

davedanon

"Originally Posted by Kidchameleon View Post
Id love it to happen. Other countries will watch Britain prosper and then leave themselves without having to worry about "negociating" with the EU. Referendum, Article 50, see yis later lads. No more meddeling from Brussels"

Not trying to be insulting, but I have a very good rule of thumb: anyone this illiterate doesn't know what they're talking about.

davedanon

And the actual post bears it out. As usual.

RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Nancy Pelosi says no UK-US trade deal if Brexit risks Irish peace

This is problematic. Ireland is being held hostage by the politics of Washington (Pelosi - Democrats control congress and automatically block the Trump administration) and France/Germany (Christine Lagarde - ECB, Ursula Von Der Leyen - EU Commissioner). The Irish state has no leverage in the politics of the American or European continent and there is every encouragement for them not to negotiate with Britain. The problem becomes that Britain sees the opportunity to use the Irish state as the pawn to force agreement from France & Germany.

That's a bizarre take. The notion that Ireland has no leverage in US or EU politics is belied by the very facts you point to. The EU stance on the backstop and the congressional Democratic stance on a UK/US trade deal are both things which Ireland has expended considerable political and diplomatic effort to bring about, and has brought about successfully.

I hope the EU do stand firm against Johnson,any quarter given would probably make him and his cronies even more unbearable.
I wouldn't place too much faith in the US not doing a trade deal with the UK though,you only have to look closely at how they demanded their "pound of flesh " for helping Britain(the alleged "special friend ")during WW2 with expensive loans and ceded territory-if a trade deal suits them any scruples will fly out of the window.

Roger Hassenforder

Not sure if already posted, apologies if it is...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cOfffyn4SWI

knipex

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

If an extension is requested then the EU would have to agree and that isn’t a forgone conclusion.

Errr. I think you are wrong, very very very wrong.

Short of an election or a new referendum i cannot see any circumstance under which the EU would give another extension..

Bannasidhe

knipex wrote: »

Errr. I think you are wrong, very very very wrong.

Short of an election or a new referendum i cannot see any circumstance under which the EU would give another extension..

I think when that poster said "the EU would have to agree" they meant it in the way that it would require EU agreement rather than the EU would be obliged.

Eric Cartman

Bannasidhe wrote: »

I think when that poster said "the EU would have to agree" they meant it in the way that it would require EU agreement rather than the EU would be obliged.

I have a feeling that they'll pull a cat out of the bag and iron clad agree to the backstop or something for "one last extension". I just want tem to be done no matter which way in october, no more faffing about

El_Duderino 09

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I have a feeling that they'll pull a cat out of the bag and iron clad agree to the backstop or something for "one last extension". I just want tem to be done no matter which way in october, no more faffing about

It's fine to be sick of it, but that has absolutely no bearing on what will happen. Fatigue is an important par of negotiations. So while it might be easy to imagine they are as sick of the negotiations as we are, fatigue is probably one thing the UK has in it's favour at this stage as they have the weaker hand. It's complicated by the fact that Boris said he will leave at the deadline, but i don't expect Boris to do anything just because he said he will do it.

I think Boris has figured out that little lies can get you fired, but huge lies are much safer. His people will rationalise the lies as long as he can convince them that he is on the brink of the big win.

I wouldn't even rule out an extension at this stage.

Kermit.de.frog

Anyone else think we should resurrect Michael Collins and send him to London for the treaty negotiations?


Also German economy not doing well. What are we going to do with the queen being sick?

Blueshoe

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Anyone else think we should resurrect Michael Collins and send him to London for the treaty negotiations?


Also German economy not doing well. What are we going to do with the queen being sick?

No

Laois_Man

Aegir wrote: »

If a Democrat president was in power and talking about a trade deal, would you expect Pelosi to have made the same comments?

Yes, of course the Irish lobby in the US is fairly strong, but it is also a very convenient political football as well.

Chances are, a democratic president wouldn’t be making the outlandish promises that the Trump administration have been making. Refer to Obama’s comments during his visit to London a few weeks before the referendum.

In fairness, most Republican Presidents wouldn’t be mKing them either

It’s also worth noting that the 54 strong Friends of Ireland caucus on Capitol Hill has 6 Republicans amongst them!