Random EV thoughts.....

babybuilder

We are being robbed stupid. They'll be a big drop off in ev sales soon.

liamog

babybuilder wrote: »

We are being robbed stupid. They'll be a big drop off in ev sales soon.

I'll take predictions that will not stand the test of time for $100.

Water John

Lads, I'll hold the wager. It'll be safe in my account!!!

babybuilder

liamog wrote: »

I'll take predictions that will not stand the test of time for $100.

time is infinite, your $100 is not:D

liamog

Comparing 2019 to 2018 Jan to Oct, car registrations as reported by beepbeep.ie have reduced by 7%.

At the same time, EV registrations have increased by 166%.
The only EVs that have managed to reduce their sales this year are the Model S and Model X. With the emissions changes starting from 2020 and into 2021, we'll only see increased pressure on manufacturers to sell EVs at the same time as the larger batteries making them far more practical. I don't think we'll see a single year between now and 2025 where the percentage of new EV registrations versus overall numbers goes down.

unkel

liamog wrote: »

I don't think we'll see a single year between now and 2025 where the percentage of new EV registrations versus overall numbers goes down.

Of course not. It is likely pure EV registrations will grow by at least 100% per year up to 2025 and even beyond. While non EV registrations will probably go down year on year. Both just like this year.

liamog

Water John wrote: »

Lads, I'll hold the wager. It'll be safe in my account!!!

You'll probably just put a deposit on the cybertruck!

liamog

Whilst checking the stats, new registrations are showing as 2.77%.

There's a reasonably well-respected idea called the Rogers Innovation Adoption Curve. It looks like we're moving out of the Innovators phase and into the Early Adopters.

unkel

That's based on penetration, not new registrations. We are still well and truly in the innovator stage, unfortunately. When penetration is beyond 2.5% (of 2 million private vehicles), so 50,000 pure EVs on the road, then we are entering early adopter stage. That's still quite some time away, maybe in 2020 but probably in 2021

McGiver

liamog wrote:

At the same time, EV registrations have increased by 166%. The only EVs that have managed to reduce their sales this year are the Model S and Model X. With the emissions changes starting from 2020 and into 2021, we'll only see increased pressure on manufacturers to sell EVs at the same time as the larger batteries making them far more practical. I don't think we'll see a single year between now and 2025 where the percentage of new EV registrations versus overall numbers goes down.

They'll push PHEVs massively first. They'll try it. Look at Skoda or VW, they already have several PHEV models ready to go...

McGiver

unkel wrote:

Skoda Citygo isn't in the article. I looked up the configurator on the Polish Skoda site to check for a price, but it ain't there either. Where did you get the 12k from?

Found it. Here it is.
https://pieniadze.rp.pl/lifestyle/madre-wydatki/21689-doplaty-do-aut-elektrycznych

See here:


57300 PLN = 13300 EUR. So 13k not 12k but still a good deal for runabout with a battery the size of the Ioniq...

liamog

McGiver wrote: »

They'll push PHEVs massively first. They'll try it. Look at Skoda or VW, they already have several PHEV models ready to go...

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive, VAG are going big on full EVs over the next few years, but are happy to implement mild hybrids and PHEV systems on their current models to ensure compliance without alienating the more conservative buyers.

unkel

liamog wrote: »

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive, VAG are going big on full EVs over the next few years.

I wonder are they though? And what's big on full? They sell 10 million cars a year, how many of them will be EV next year or the year after?

They don't have to do much until 2021, so why should they?

We have established before that most big car manufacturers in the EU will get away with a few EVs and a lot of PHEV until at least the start of 2022 (without being penalised heavily for CO2 emissions)

KCross

unkel wrote: »

They don't have to do much until 2021, so why should they?

Why 2021?
My understanding is 2020 is the start of the new regulations. Its why the ID.3 and all the PHEV's are starting out in 2020 and the likes of Kia are holding off BEV sales in the last few months until Jan, to get the sales into the 2020 figures.

unkel wrote: »

We have established before that most big car manufacturers in the EU will get away with a few EVs and a lot of PHEV until at least the start of 2022 (without being penalised heavily for CO2 emissions)

If they wanted to they could go hybrid and PHEV and it would take them all the way to meeting 2030 targets. BEV isnt necessarily required but obviously makes it easier if you can do it profitably.

liamog

unkel wrote: »

I wonder are they though? And what's big on full? They sell 10 million cars a year, how many of them will be EV next year or the year after?

They don't have to do much until 2021, so why should they?

We have established before that most big car manufacturers in the EU will get away with a few EVs and a lot of PHEV until at least the start of 2022 (without being penalised heavily for CO2 emissions)

From analyst numbers I've seen, it's 4% in 2020 and 8% in 2021.

KCross

liamog wrote: »

From analyst numbers I've seen, it's 4% in 2020 and 8% in 2021.

Thats including PHEV's though, right?

They wont have Zwickau producing 100k ID.3's per year until 2021. So, to hit 4% and 8% they'd need alot of other BEV's coming from somewhere or more likely alot of PHEV's.

liamog

KCross wrote: »

Thats including PHEV's though, right?

They wont have Zwickau producing 100k ID.3's per year until 2021. So, to hit 4% and 8% they'd need alot of other BEV's coming from somewhere or more likely alot of PHEV's.

No it's from here https://twitter.com/auto_schmidt/status/1196468908133421058

According to http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/volkswagen-group/ they sold 3.65 million cars int in 2018, meaning a 4% BEV share requires 146,000. Brands included are Audi, Bentley, Lamborghini, Porsche, Seat, Skoda and VW.

They'll make that up from e-Trons, Triplets, Taycans and the ID3 Launch.

McGiver

McGiver wrote: »

Found it. Here it is.
https://pieniadze.rp.pl/lifestyle/madre-wydatki/21689-doplaty-do-aut-elektrycznych

See here:


57300 PLN = 13300 EUR. So 13k not 12k but still a good deal for runabout with a battery the size of the Ioniq...

And Slovakia follows.

BEV - 8k subsidy
PHEV - 5k subsidy
Cap - 50k

https://www.chcemelektromobil.sk/

The rest of the region will have to follow. Although it's a wrong model (tax exemption/refund/credit is better), it's good thing to do. Note, these countries don't have a VRT.

samih

OT: Poland is one of the least beneficial countries to reduce transport carbon footprint in the world using BEVs. They have possibly the single biggest CO2 source in the world (Bełchatów Power Station) installed and in general the Polish government has absolutely no plans to move away from lignite as the main fuel source for the power generation. The plans towards 2050 are all based on burning coal.

Black_Knight

Yikes! Christmas could be interesting folks (Ireland's no where near these levels, but nor is our charging network)

Thanksgiving Tesla charging queues:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/31274/more-teslas-on-the-road-meant-hours-long-supercharger-lines-over-thanksgiving

JPA

Black_Knight wrote: »

Yikes! Christmas could be interesting folks (Ireland's no where near these levels, but nor is our charging network)

Thanksgiving Tesla charging queues:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/31274/more-teslas-on-the-road-meant-hours-long-supercharger-lines-over-thanksgiving

That's crazy but surely the most Tesla dense area in the world.

unkel

That's Kettleman. It's the largest, busiest supercharging station in the US. It has just been upgraded and now has 40 stalls. That is clearly way too small. There is a charger in Norway (that whole country has a smaller population than the LA area alone ) that is bigger and I believe plans for 100 stall superchargers (all in China) are on the way.

McGiver

unkel wrote:

That's Kettleman. It's the largest, busiest supercharging station in the US. It has just been upgraded and now has 40 stalls. That is clearly way too small. There is a charger in Norway (that whole country has a smaller population than the LA area alone ) that is bigger and I believe plans for 100 stall superchargers (all in China) are on the way.

100 * say 50kW = 5MW, it would need its own little power plant or at least a large transformer...

unkel

A 200 * 200m field of solar PV will generate 5MW when the sun shines, that should help

redcup342

Black_Knight wrote: »

Yikes! Christmas could be interesting folks (Ireland's no where near these levels, but nor is our charging network)

Thanksgiving Tesla charging queues:
https://www.thedrive.com/news/31274/more-teslas-on-the-road-meant-hours-long-supercharger-lines-over-thanksgiving

Electrify America has over 1200 CCS Chargers and is growing rapidly.

Tesla will be a victim of their own success if they don't open up their Supercharger network.

In Europe I'm surprised they haven't been slapped by the European Commission yet for anti competitive behavior (closing their network but installing CCS to use Competitors chargers)

Imaging going to a Petrol Station to fill up your Skoda only to be told it's for BMWs only.

ELM327

redcup342 wrote: »

Electrify America has over 1200 CCS Chargers and is growing rapidly.

Tesla will be a victim of their own success if they don't open up their Supercharger network.

In Europe I'm surprised they haven't been slapped by the European Commission yet for anti competitive behavior (closing their network but installing CCS to use Competitors chargers)

Imaging going to a BMW Petrol Station to fill up your Skoda only to be told it's for BMWs only.

fyp
The network is open to all, musk has said repeatedly, but it's not going to be free.

unkel

ELM327 wrote: »

The network is open to all, musk has said repeatedly

Not open yet. Any link to where Musk said non-Tesla owners can use CCS at superchargers?

Mickeroo

Access to the Tesla CCS would be great, I'd be quite happy to pay through the nose for it the handful of times I would ever need to use it.

MJohnston

unkel wrote: »

Not open yet. Any link to where Musk said non-Tesla owners can use CCS at superchargers?

He said it a while ago:
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-elon-musk-open-supercharger-network/

Essentially he wants car companies to pay him money to open it up (EU should step in here imo) and presumably subsequently all users of the chargers will also be paying him money to use them.

The EU shouldn't be waiting around for a person like Elon Musk to discover the joys of socialism.

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

Not open yet. Any link to where Musk said non-Tesla owners can use CCS at superchargers?

It is open, the OEMs havent paid for it!