Random EV thoughts.....

the_amazing_raisin

The big problem with being number 1 is the only way is down

cannco253

https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/GS%20EV%20report-e9e0625c-76c5-4379-b36d-800d2560cbdf.pdf

Long read

Goldman Sachs Equity Research

30 January 2023 | 11:33PM JST

The Ecosystem of Electric Vehicles

From the FT

At the end of January, Goldman Sachs published a big sprawling 95 page (virtual) brick titled The Ecosystem of Electric Vehicles, looking at the entire value chain of companies in the space, from car manufacturers to component makers and infrastructure providers.

the_amazing_raisin

More boat news

https://www.electrive.com/2023/03/03/norwegian-shipping-company-orders-two-hydrogen-ferries/

It doesn't really say it in the article, but the routes are between 35 and 109km through open seas

So, same distance from Dublin to Holyhead more or less is now totally emissions free

Get on with it Irish Ferries! I want to drive to Europe or UK without burning a single drop of diesel

kanuseeme

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320519#Comment_120320519

if you got 20 minutes it's well worth watching, any of her videos are tbh.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zklo4Z1SqkE

josip

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320519#Comment_120320519

Just wondering where Norway will get the hydrogen for these ships? Would it from their natural gas by any chance?

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320734#Comment_120320734

I haven't watched the video yet (I'm out walking 😁) but I know hydrogen has some big issues, mainly around production

I think the Idea of hydrogen cars is well and truly dead, and hydrogen trucks or hydrogen home heating are circling the drain

But there are some areas the current battery technology just doesn't seem to be able to cover, aviation and shipping being the main ones

I think eventually battery technology will take over there as well. But since ferries can operate for 20-30 years before replacement then for now it's probably better to just green hydrogen than build more fossil ferries which could be still around in 2050

EDIT: Okay video watched, very informative and well researched and definitely a few more considerations than just the source of hydrogen

I still think it makes sense for planes and ships, for now...

It's interesting to think that 20 years ago we were talking about hydrogen cars being the future and battery powered cars would never manage more than 50km. Now the tables have turned almost completely and hydrogen is being squeezed out of many markets

Like I said, the technology for long range battery powered ships and aircraft will come some day, but even the most optimistic timelines out that around 2030. In the meantime there's a whole lot of ships and aircraft that will be built and it's possible that hydrogen will be the stopgap to make them greener

unkel

Was going to post something similar. Hydrogen is dirtier than fossil fuel. Until we start making it with huge excess renewables, that we have no other use for. And even then there are loads of issues.

Battery electric is the way to go for any transport, with the only exception I can think of being long haul shipping.

munchkin_utd

in fairness that ferry in Norway is offering these carrying capacities ....

599 passengers, 
120 cars 
12 trucks

which is tiny, miniscule, compared to Ulyses on the Dublin Hollyhead run:

1,938 passengers
1,342 cars
241 trucks

WB yeats is a tad smaller. Stena adventurer a tad smaller again, but still multiples of the Norwegian ferry.

You'd need dozens of those Norwegian ferries to replace the 3 largest vessels to Hollyhead.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320771#Comment_120320771

Maybe, maybe not

They didn't say in the article that they would be using green hydrogen, so I would guess that at least some of it is coming from natural gas

There's also the mention of up to 15% of power from biofuels, so presumably at least some diesel power is onboard, maybe as backup power

However, one handy thing about hydrogen is that you should be able to swap out fossil produced hydrogen for green hydrogen without any modifications

Another bit of economic theory to consider. Norway has a lot of wind energy and also a large natural gas export industry

Does it make more sense to use your natural gas resources to make hydrogen for a domestic market, or export the hydrogen for a profit and use the money gained to invest in wind energy and green hydrogen production?

I honestly don't know which is the case, but it's an interesting question to ponder

munchkin_utd

Another bit of economic theory to consider. Norway has a lot of wind energy and also a large natural gas export industry

is that not the essence of the whole thing?

In places with really plentiful wind or solar energy (so Irl/ Scotland/ Norway and the likes for wind, sunny barren countries for solar) that you create hydrogen from excess energy that you cannot use at that moment

Nobody is producing vast quanties of energy that they currently cant use but this could (should) be the case in the future

slave1

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320876#Comment_120320876

Nuclear

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120320876#Comment_120320876

Yeah I remember watching a video about green hydrogen and the issue is that for it to be economical they need electricity prices to be really low

So it works when you have lots of excess renewables, but as soon as you scale up then it's no longer excess and the prices go up

Bizarrely green hydrogen is a self limiting industry, make too much and it becomes expensive

I agree that batteries are the future, but like I said these ferries can be in service for decades and in the short term I'd prefer to see hydrogen being used instead of LNG or Diesel

At the very least you won't have to look at the blast of smoke coming from the exhaust stack when the ferry is starting up

Maybe there's a better stopgap solution, hybrid drives or biogas might be the answer in the short term. The main issue with biogas that I could see is that there's plenty of demand elsewhere as well

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321525#Comment_120321525

Thought you meant a nuclear powered ferry for a minute, might be a tad extreme 😂

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321153#Comment_120321153

That's the problem with it as well, if you're using a load of excess energy then suddenly it isn't excess anymore and you've created demand, and the price goes up as a result

Like I said, it's a self limiting industry

innrain

There will always be the economics at play. Even if we can get renewable energy unlimited, that is not free to produce and transport. Electrolysis is going to produce H2 with an efficiency of around 70%, meaning a quarter of the electric energy is lost just to produce H2. Then depending on the type of propulsion you're working with some average of 50% efficiency to convert the H2 into mechanical energy (i.e. movement). This makes the whole process electric -> chemical->mechanical at least twice more expensive assuming an efficiency of 70 -80 % electric ->mechanical. It is hard to believe that a commercial entity will go for that at scale.

but lets put some numbers in

Renewable electricity-powered hydrogen, or green hydrogen, has a zero-carbon footprint, but this comes at a price.

As of 2021, the fuel costs about $5 per kilogram in the U.S., according to the U.S. Energy Department, compared to $1.50/kg for gray hydrogen, which is produced without carbon capture.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/blue-hydrogen-runs-significant-risk-of-becoming-stranded-asset-8211-advisory-firm-71222790

The big danger is that the hydrogen will never be green as it has to compete with the other hydrogen production methods which are high polluters. I don't take into account the costs of transport and distribute H2. Currently 96% of H2 is gray, read pollutes, the rest is there just to muddle the waters, to give us something to speak of.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321647#Comment_120321647

Absolutely true, I imagine the only way green hydrogen works is if it's subsidised while grey hydrogen is taxed

If the target users are only a small number of industries then at least the production can be very close to the point of use. At least for shipping, airports are not necessarily near water sources

However, the requirement is for purified fresh water and Dublin Bay water is anything but. And desalination and purification isn't without it's problems either

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120321525#Comment_120321525

Plenty of nuclear powered aircraft carriers out there so nuclear powered ferries or container ships is surely possible?

Hinkley C is closer to Dublin than Belmullet yet there is a wierd phobia about mentioning a nuclear power station in Ireland.

The Brits are going mad building them at the moment while we dither with unreliable wind.

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120323440#Comment_120323440

A $14 billion ferry seems a tad expensive 😉

Not to mention the disposal costs when it's finished service

And tbh there's more successful nuclear plants than Hinkley Point C. So far the only people who'd call that a success are all the construction firms and consultants who've made billions while the plant has produced not a single watt

waterwelly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120324195#Comment_120324195

The point is the UK are diversifying their energy supply whereas we seem to be going with wind, then import nuclear while pretending not to be using nuclear.

We need a broad mix but if you mention nuclear all the usual answers get bandied about.

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120324654#Comment_120324654

We don't need a broad mix. We need a broad mix in the greater Europe as a whole, not in Ireland. Ireland can do tonnes of cheap wind, Spain and north Africa can do PV, Norway can do hydro / gas and France can do nuclear, all interconnected. That's only short to medium term though, longer term all countries can cope fine and the cheapest (and cleanest) way will be just PV + wind + batteries

the_amazing_raisin

Play to what resources we have would be my opinion

Wind, solar, pumped hydro, biogas for peak power and biomass for winter heating

We don't have uranium, any spent fuel or radioactive waste disposal facilities or any expertise in nuclear

Leave it to the countries that know what they're doing and just buy energy when we need it

slave1

The generation of electricity from a typical 1,000-megawatt nuclear power station, which would supply the needs of more than a million people, produces only three cubic metres of vitrified high-level waste per year, if the used fuel is recycled. In comparison, a 1,000-megawatt coal-fired power station produces approximately 300,000 tonnes of ash and more than 6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, every year.

No waste issue for Ireland, a few cubic meters

the_amazing_raisin

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326623#Comment_120326623

Yeah but we need special handling and storage, and because we don't have that we'd need to pay another country to deal with our nuclear waste. Given the political sensitivity of this, it would likely be very expensive

Like I said, leave it to the French and the British and just invest into interconnectors so we can buy energy when needed and sell wind energy when we have excess

Seems a much better solution for Ireland IMO

AndyBoBandy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120326639#Comment_120326639

Yep.

Being in the power generation industry myself (we do mostly everything including wind, hydro, fossil, nuclear etc…), it would be very nice if we went down the nuclear route, but it would be very very very very expensive, and given Irelands track record with capitol projects, it would end up costing even more than the very very very high initial price we thought we’d be paying.

Wind is our oil, and if we got our arse in gear we could be a net exporter of electricity, relying on inter connectors & quick start CCGT plants for peaks that wind can’t cover…. We should also look at more pumped hydro storage (they are the batteries), and perhaps green hydrogen from excess wind generation to support a hydrogen led transport system (rail/haulage/public transport).

unkel

Well said @AndyBoBandy. An Taoiseach was spot on when he said wind is Ireland's oil nearly a year ago. Not much has happened since though unfortunately.

liamog

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327003#Comment_120327003

How much wind capacity would €36 billion likely bring us, According to a report in the Financial Times that's the current costs Hinkley C

unkel

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120327333#Comment_120327333

Ha, glad you asked. I did some sums a year or two ago and €15 billion would provide over 300% of Ireland's then total national electricity use (about 1000 turbines I think). This is from memory, but someone can quickly confirm if that's ballpark or not. These were the biggest turbines commercially available at the time, iirc 16MW and they have a load factor in Ireland of about 50%, so they produce on average 8MW each (24/7/365)

That was the cost of installing the turbines, not including the cost of connecting them to the grid. Which is also substantial. And not including the cost of further massive interconnectors we would need to trade our wind electricity with other countries. Which is even more substantial. But you see these figures spread over 10-20 years are really not all that much if you think about the reward lying ahead.

liamog

So for one Hinkley (3.2GWh) we could supply 600% of Ireland's demand let's say 6 * 6GWh. Yep, def think we should become the big wind exporter.

unkel

Wind is by far the cheapest form of electricity production. Even in countries that have a lot less wind than Ireland. We could do with a tonne of PV too, Ireland is better for PV than most people think. I produced 31kWh today myself. More than enough for all my electricity needs for 24h, and I put a good bit into the car and into the hot water tank and I heated the house with electricity all day (while it was literally only just a few degrees above freezing). I live in a modest semi-detached house in an estate in a Dublin suburb.

liamog

modest semi-detached house in an estate in a Dublin suburb

Not everyone can afford to live in houses that cost half a million 😉