Random EV thoughts.....

Black_Knight

I posted this a few weeks back but it got lost in the chat.

Will Nissan start installing CCS plugs/charge points at their dealerships when the Ariya lands? I very much doubt it, but it'd be a brilliant increase in CCS charge points if they did. Their CHAdeMO charge points are free for all from what I hear.

graememk

Genghis wrote: »

First morning to use the remote heating function today. Whilst loving the feature, I hate giving way to the oncoming Winter.

Winter is coming!

unkel

graememk wrote: »

Winter is coming!

ELM327

Black_Knight wrote: »

I posted this a few weeks back but it got lost in the chat.

Will Nissan start installing CCS plugs/charge points at their dealerships when the Ariya lands? I very much doubt it, but it'd be a brilliant increase in CCS charge points if they did. Their CHAdeMO charge points are free for all from what I hear.

I doubt it. The chademo plugs are free for all, including my Tesla!
They were installed mostly in 2011-12, before there was a network.

Now there are multiple chargepoints nationwide there's no need for nissan dealers to provide them. In 2010-11 when the first leafs were sold, a lot of the "networks" were slow 3kW chargers or simply 3 pin plugs.

the_amazing_raisin

ELM327 wrote: »

I doubt it. The chademo plugs are free for all, including my Tesla!
They were installed mostly in 2011-12, before there was a network.

Now there are multiple chargepoints nationwide there's no need for nissan dealers to provide them. In 2010-11 when the first leafs were sold, a lot of the "networks" were slow 3kW chargers or simply 3 pin plugs.

I'd say they'll upgrade the existing ones with CCS plugs as well, I suspect most of the competition is doing the same, certainly VW in airside has a nice 60kW dual CCS charger for all the ID.3s

They might go to an rfid system so it'll be customer cars only

redcup342

cruisey1987 wrote: »

I'd say they'll upgrade the existing ones with CCS plugs as well, I suspect most of the competition is doing the same, certainly VW in airside has a nice 60kW dual CCS charger for all the ID.3s

They might go to an rfid system so it'll be customer cars only

I wonder if that would be Volkswagen only or VAG Group Cars.

Would be a shame if it was the former !

zg3409

ELM327 wrote: »

I doubt it. The chademo plugs are free for all, including my Tesla!
.

Note some Nissan dealers charge a fee to fill your Chademo vehicle. I had to ask Nissan to update their website with free charging at all dealers comment, and I had to ask them a second time when they updated site again. I am not sure how they would react to a 100kWh Tesla paying their fixed charging fee.

ELM327

zg3409 wrote: »

Note some Nissan dealers charge a fee to fill your Chademo vehicle. I had to ask Nissan to update their website with free charging at all dealers comment, and I had to ask them a second time when they updated site again. I am not sure how they would react to a 100kWh Tesla paying their fixed charging fee.

About as well as a 90kWh one not paying anything, all good!


There's only one that charges right now, Randles in tralee.

the_amazing_raisin

redcup342 wrote: »

I wonder if that would be Volkswagen only or VAG Group Cars.

Would be a shame if it was the former !

In the case of airside, most of the dealers there are owned by Joe Duffy so I'd assume they share resources.


Having said that, I rang another Joe Duffy garage to ask a question recently because the regular one was busy and they said they didn't talk to one another. So maybe the spirit of cooperation isn't great there

AndyBoBandy

^^ They don't talk to each other, they only Talk to Joe....

MJohnston

California to phase out sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/23/california-electric-cars/

This is obviously 5 years less ambitious than our Irish target, but this is a big deal. It essentially puts the entire USA on the same timeline.

The effects on battery technology should be the main benefit that we see filter through to Ireland.

liamog

The UK is looking to do something similar and there is talk of the EU parliament pushing an agenda to do the same.

Kramer

MJohnston wrote: »

California to phase out sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035

Ahh, just in time for our first, ECars charging hub .

zg3409

MJohnston wrote: »

California to phase out sales of new gas-powered cars by 2035
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/09/23/california-electric-cars/

This is obviously 5 years less ambitious than our Irish target, but this is a big deal. It essentially puts the entire USA on the same timeline.

The effects on battery technology should be the main benefit that we see filter through to Ireland.

The big thing that announcements like this have is that customers think twice before buying a new diesel or petrol and manufacturers realise they need to ramp up their EV offerings, even if the deadline is not met or extended or watered down to include mild hybrid. Already Irish dealers are complaining customers don't want to buy nearly obsolete cars, and are delaying purchasing new until EV offerings improve. Even the ads for hybrid are driving people away from non hybrid and some manufacturers are suffering, even if here we agree hybrid is unsuitable or obsolete for many purchasers.

The looming recession and people working from home with reduced/no mileage will reduce demand to upgrade cars, but might caused used prices of all cars to drop as demand drops and supply outstrips demand. Brexit might change all the UK imports, which are a lot of used car sales even from big brand dealers, but either way the trend and market is moving to EV even if quite slowly. They say a car model needs to sell 100,000 to make it profitable to set up a production line, so it may make sense for some manufacturers to hold off introducing multiple models until demand for EV is higher than 10% of new sales. Even with multiple similar models they tend to reuse 90% of the other variants design. Most manufacturers outsource 99% of the parts for a car and are just a final assembly plant and marketing and dealers. They tend to just buy off the shelf parts from big suppliers of tyres, electronics, batteries etc. Even VW said that they had no software in house and wanted to change that.

MJohnston

zg3409 wrote: »

The big thing that announcements like this have is that customers think twice before buying a new diesel or petrol and manufacturers realise they need to ramp up their EV offerings, even if the deadline is not met or extended or watered down to include mild hybrid.

This is it exactly - it shifts expectations so much that the industry has to adjust much earlier than the actual deadline.

I don't think there was a car manufacturer left on the planet who hadn't already started to take electric vehicles seriously, but this should act as a big kick up the arse.

zg3409

zg3409 wrote: »

The big thing that announcements like this have is that customers think twice before buying a new diesel or petrol and manufacturers realise they need to ramp up their EV offerings, even if the deadline is not met or extended or watered down to include mild hybrid. Already Irish dealers are complaining customers don't want to buy nearly obsolete cars, and are delaying purchasing new until EV offerings improve. Even the ads for hybrid are driving people away from non hybrid and some manufacturers are suffering, even if here we agree hybrid is unsuitable or obsolete for many purchasers.

The looming recession and people working from home with reduced/no mileage will reduce demand to upgrade cars, but might caused used prices of all cars to drop as demand drops and supply outstrips demand. Brexit might change all the UK imports, which are a lot of used car sales even from big brand dealers, but either way the trend and market is moving to EV even if quite slowly. They say a car model needs to sell 100,000 to make it profitable to set up a production line, so it may make sense for some manufacturers to hold off introducing multiple models until demand for EV is higher than 10% of new sales. Even with multiple similar models they tend to reuse 90% of the other variants design. Most manufacturers outsource 99% of the parts for a car and are just a final assembly plant and marketing and dealers. They tend to just buy off the shelf parts from big suppliers of tyres, electronics, batteries etc. Even VW said that they had no software in house and wanted to change that.

I think most manufacturers would love to produce more EVs, the sticking point is supply of batteries, Tesla are pulling out all the stops to ramp up battery production by introducing even more in-house production all other battery manufacturers are flat out.
I'm sure manufacturers would switch to electric faster if there was a ready supply batteries. They're already aware that they have to switch production over, but still need to sell cars to survive.

liamog

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm sure manufacturers would switch to electric faster if there was a ready supply batteries. They're already aware that they have to switch production over, but still need to sell cars to survive.

Battery supply is a much smaller issue than most Tesla blogs make out, the only real issue with supply is that you need around an 18 month to 24 month lead time when predicting your demand.

Thierry12

liamog wrote: »

Battery supply is a much smaller issue than most Tesla blogs make out, the only real issue with supply is that you need around an 18 month to 24 month lead time when predicting your demand.

Very true

CATL, LG, Samsung and the likes can make as much as you need with lead time

Only reason Tesla didn't go that route is no one was taking those orders off them without cash upfront, which Tesla didn't have.

Panasonic took on that huge risk hoping they could get profitable business from Tesla and autogiants later on, which never came about

Autogiants like VW, Toyota, Hyundai don't have cash problems so never had that problem

liamog

liamog wrote: »

Battery supply is a much smaller issue than most Tesla blogs make out, the only real issue with supply is that you need around an 18 month to 24 month lead time when predicting your demand.

I don't really buy that as it is the capacity to produce batteries that is the issue, from extraction through to manufacturing. It's the speed in increasing the extraction & production capacity that is where the issue is.


The ramping up of battery production required is enormous and required enormous investment to realise.

liamog

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't really buy that as it is the capacity to produce batteries that is the issue, from extraction through to manufacturing. It's the speed in increasing the extraction & production capacity that is where the issue is.


The ramping up of battery production required is enormous and required enormous investment to realise.

The Koreans and Chinese battery companies have ramped up production much quicker than Tesla have, they do so on the basis of firm orders from auto manufacturers. We know from LG Chem that it takes around 18 months to bring new manufacturering capacity online (look at expansions in Wroclaw).

So long as an auto company forecasts demand correctly and places the order, the battery companies are happy to build the capacity to fulfill it. They don't want to invest in manufacturing that will remain idle, so won't build a plant without a customer for its output.

the_amazing_raisin

liamog wrote: »

The Koreans and Chinese battery companies have ramped up production much quicker than Tesla have, they do so on the basis of firm orders from auto manufacturers. We know from LG Chem that it takes around 18 months to bring new manufacturering capacity online (look at expansions in Wroclaw).

So long as an auto company forecasts demand correctly and places the order, the battery companies are happy to build the capacity to fulfill it. They don't want to invest in manufacturing that will remain idle, so won't build a plant without a customer for its output.

There's also a time factor to consider. Battery makers can spend money ramping up production over several years, or they can ramp production quickly with greater expense.


The latter represents greater risk since you're unable to defer expenses and is generally more expensive overall since you'll need to hire more construction workers/consultants/engineers etc.


Battery makers for years weren't willing to accept the risk because they didn't have firm orders from automakers. Panasonic was the exception to this since they had the joint venture with Tesla which took a lot of risk out for them


Now that groups like VW are ordering batteries in large quantities, the risk is reduced considerably.


Another major factor is competition. Because battery supply was constrained for so long, many suppliers were selling everything they made, so there was no real competition


But, if say SK Innovation start building a large battery plant and others do nothing, then SK get the dominant position in the market and will reap the rewards. So now there's an incentive for battery makers to ramp production quickly to get ahead of the competition

liamog

The time factor is always at play, I often imagine the story goes like this

1. Hyundai release the Ioniq
2. Hyundai sells every Ioniq they can make
3. Reporter asks Hyundai why can't you make more Ioniqs
4. Hyundai say they can't because they don't have enough battery supply

The headline will read Hyundai can't make more Ioniq's because they are constrained by the battery supply.
The reality is, if they'd have forecasted a higher demand, they'd have ordered more batteries, which would mean the battery manufacturers would of built more capacity.

Battery cells are becoming a commodity item, if you look at VW's approach with the MEB platform they're going down a multi supplier route, this should allow them to be more elastic in both supply and demand.
One of the rumours re the 77kWh ID.3 is that VW expect higher density cells within the next 2-3 years, which means they can provide the same range with a lower battery pack weight. That would solve the 4 seat problem with the biggest battery.

cannco253

Mercedes Vision AVTR car prototype

https://electrek.co/2020/09/27/mercedes-benz-sureal-driving-footage-insane-looking-electric-car-prototype/

crab walk...compostable battery materials....both front seat passengers can drive the car....the future?

I wouldn't be the biggest Avatar fan...

the_amazing_raisin

cannco253 wrote: »

Mercedes Vision AVTR car prototype

https://electrek.co/2020/09/27/mercedes-benz-sureal-driving-footage-insane-looking-electric-car-prototype/

crab walk...compostable battery materials....both front seat passengers can drive the car....the future?

I wouldn't be the biggest Avatar fan...

Not much space for the kids in the back


Looks very sci-fi, definitely taken some inspiration from the I, Robot movie and a few others.


I remember a while ago one of the tyre companies was showing off spherical wheels (Goodyear, maybe) so it's possible they've evolved enough for real use. It'd certainly take any excuses away for not being able to park


The batteries seem cool, although as usual there's no real info on them. As is often the case when the press gets wind of new battery chemistries they skip the boring questions like:


1. What's the power & energy density?
2. Can they be mass produced?
3. Can they be made cheaply enough in high volume?
4. What's the expected lifetime?


I'm sure we'll see more about these batteries, but I don't think we'll be seeing graphene batteries in cars for a while yet

DrPhilG

When was the last time that a prototype/concept ever made it to market looking anything like the concept?

the_amazing_raisin

DrPhilG wrote: »

When was the last time that a prototype/concept ever made it to market looking anything like the concept?

To be fair the ID.3 is fairly close


However it was at least car shaped to begin with

galwaytt

DrPhilG wrote: »

When was the last time that a prototype/concept ever made it to market looking anything like the concept?

1995 Audi TT was very close to production version

1993 Porsche Boxster similarly.

DrPhilG

galwaytt wrote: »

1995 Audi TT was very close to production version

1993 Porsche Boxster similarly.

Precisely. 25 years ago!

Black_Knight

DrPhilG wrote: »

When was the last time that a prototype/concept ever made it to market looking anything like the concept?

cruisey1987 wrote: »

To be fair the ID.3 is fairly close


However it was at least car shaped to begin with

Yup.

ID4 (I guess) looks a bit like a bit of a "sportback" version rather than what we're getting this/next year.

ID3 externals is bang on though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3Xx1-wj7Pc

Thierry12

liamog wrote: »

The time factor is always at play, I often imagine the story goes like this

1. Hyundai release the Ioniq
2. Hyundai sells every Ioniq they can make
3. Reporter asks Hyundai why can't you make more Ioniqs
4. Hyundai say they can't because they don't have enough battery supply

The headline will read Hyundai can't make more Ioniq's because they are constrained by the battery supply.
The reality is, if they'd have forecasted a higher demand, they'd have ordered more batteries, which would mean the battery manufacturers would of built more capacity.

Battery cells are becoming a commodity item, if you look at VW's approach with the MEB platform they're going down a multi supplier route, this should allow them to be more elastic in both supply and demand.
One of the rumours re the 77kWh ID.3 is that VW expect higher density cells within the next 2-3 years, which means they can provide the same range with a lower battery pack weight. That would solve the 4 seat problem with the biggest battery.

Think the Tesla Battery day highlighted the most gains are going to come from packaging, not higher density cells

Read somewhere that VW ID3 battery pack like many are only made up of 40% battery cells, by improving packaging ( cells to pack, cells to chassis etc ) they want to get that 40% to 60% cells to pack

58kWh becomes 87kWh without any change to battery chemistry