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King George Ascot 2019

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Comments

  • #52
    tryfix
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Morgans wrote: »
    Two other things - it is interesting in the discussion around enable since the weekend - how she is a superstar. Despite not coming out of the weekends race as the best horse. If it was a superstars performance then it was the same for crystal ocean and waldgeist. Very few grade 1 performers demolish other multiple grade 1 winners like Frankel did. He was raced as if he was a champion. I've never seen a guineas EVER run that way. Excelebration tried to go with him in the QA and finished drunk.

    The form of Windsor palace you quote are at distances from 2m4f to a mile. As mentioned, it's easy to read form and come out with the worst possible interpretation to suit a hypothesis, you'd hope that the handicapper (at the very least) can see through that.

    I have gone through Frankel's races to see how the figures were arrived at, in his case exposed horses he had beaten were dragged up the rankings. I showed Windsor Palace's record as a beaten pacemaker to emphasise the point that Frankel's similar beatings of him to those administered by other G1 winners wasn't of the standard of a horse who was officially a minimum of one stone superior to the other horses who were beating Windsor Palace

    It may be fair enough to give a horse like Frankel style points as a means to reward consistent excellence but very few horses ever get these bonus pounds on to their ratings. For instance the superstar Enable hasn't risen in the weights because she has only being winning by small margins each time.


    A horse's Form is only as good as the weakest link in the race. In Frankel's monster run he gave the OR 104 Windsor Palace a 31lb beating = 135 lbs performance and we are to take it that despite the 7yo Windsor Palace being used as the pacemaker he still somehow not only managed to run to his full OR 104 potential in that race he actually managed to increase his OR that day to OR 106 which allowed for the ratings to be driven towards 140.

    In order for Frankel to be dragged up to a greatest ever mark the pacemaker had to have his OR inflated. Frankel's own pacemaker Bullet Train was an OR 106 horse when he was first used as a pacemaker for Frankel, he was beaten 12L by Frankel then, in his next race as pacemaker for Frankel he was again beaten by 12L but this time he was adjudged to have improved by 5Lbs to a new career high of 111, three races later as Frankel's pacemaker sees Bullet Train being beaten 13 1/4 L by Frankel and his rating climbs yet again to another new career high of 113.

    That kind of grade inflation for punch bag pacemakers allowed Frankel's OR rise to it's silly level.


  • #53
    Morgans
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,429 ✭✭✭Morgans


    tryfix wrote: »
    I have gone through Frankel's races to see how the figures were arrived at, in his case exposed horses he had beaten were dragged up the rankings. I showed Windsor Palace's record as a beaten pacemaker to emphasise the point that Frankel's similar beatings of him to those administered by other G1 winners wasn't of the standard of a horse who was officially a minimum of one stone superior to the other horses who were beating Windsor Palace

    It may be fair enough to give a horse like Frankel style points as a means to reward consistent excellence but very few horses ever get these bonus pounds on to their ratings. For instance the superstar Enable hasn't risen in the weights because she has only being winning by small margins each time.


    A horse's Form is only as good as the weakest link in the race. In Frankel's monster run he gave the OR 104 Windsor Palace a 31lb beating = 135 lbs performance and we are to take it that despite the 7yo Windsor Palace being used as the pacemaker he still somehow not only managed to run to his full OR 104 potential in that race he actually managed to increase his OR that day to OR 106 which allowed for the ratings to be driven towards 140.

    In order for Frankel to be dragged up to a greatest ever mark the pacemaker had to have his OR inflated. Frankel's own pacemaker Bullet Train was an OR 106 horse when he was first used as a pacemaker for Frankel, he was beaten 12L by Frankel then, in his next race as pacemaker for Frankel he was again beaten by 12L but this time he was adjudged to have improved by 5Lbs to a new career high of 111, three races later as Frankel's pacemaker sees Bullet Train being beaten 13 1/4 L by Frankel and his rating climbs yet again to another new career high of 113.

    That kind of grade inflation for punch bag pacemakers allowed Frankel's OR rise to it's silly level.

    I don't agree there should be style points. And a lot of what you say makes perfect sense but "a horse's form is only as good as the weakest link in the race is 100% wrong." That's not the purpose of form or handicapping.

    Would you give pacemaker Sovereign an increased rating for his Irish derby form Vs Epsom derby. If you are saying pacemakers can't improve their performance you are also wrong.


  • #54
    tryfix
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭tryfix


    Morgans wrote: »
    I don't agree there should be style points. And a lot of what you say makes perfect sense but "a horse's form is only as good as the weakest link in the race is 100% wrong." That's not the purpose of form or handicapping.

    Would you give pacemaker Sovereign an increased rating for his Irish derby form Vs Epsom derby. If you are saying pacemakers can't improve their performance you are also wrong.
    Subject to a time analysis proving that there was improvement in Sovereign's form from Epsom to The Curragh I absolutely would give Sovereign an increased rating for his Irish Derby form. Note how Sovereign's OR 118 rating in the Irish Derby is hugely inferior to the potential rating of 127 he could have been given for beating OR 118 AVD into second.

    Instead of using the seemingly outfoxed AVD 118 and Madhmoon 117 as form guides the handicapper used the weakest link to record a lowish interpretation of the winners worth. The weakest link was the 104 rated Norway who was given a 13lb beating which allowed the handicapper to come to 118 for Sovereign.

    There is also a huge difference between a 12f bred 3yo having only his second ever run over 12f at the Curragh Vs the exposed 7yo and 5yo pacemakers that were running as pacemakers in Frankel's races. Many horses leave their Epsom form well behind when they get away from the difficult track and race that is the Epsom Derby. You can be sure that the modest credit given to Sovereign for his Irish Derby win will vanish very quickly If he runs again without backing up his Curragh rating.


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