British version of Trump becomes PM

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Which countries are planning to leave?

Considering which countries want to leave the EU, several others could potentially quit. Among them:

Poland is arguing with the EU over a controversial reform of its judiciary and in a recent poll a third of those questioned said they rejected EU membership. The risk of Polexit was acknowledged in November by European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister, who told reporters: “The matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible”.

Hungary is also in dispute with the EU, having been admonished by the European Parliament. Lawmakers said it was becoming an authoritarian state at the heart of Europe that encourages nationalists across the continent to follow the same path, and voted overwhelmingly in September to label Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Although unlikely, moves to expel it from the EU are possible.

In Sweden, the right-wing anti-immigration Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 elections, leading to political deadlock. While they will not be part of any new coalition that is formed, their advance suggests that anti-EU sentiment is rising there too, despite a survey showing Swedes are still overwhelmingly against Swexit.

In Estonia, the populist Eurosceptic EKRE party is gaining ground ahead of elections on March 3, 2019 and could become the third-largest party there. Once again, the chances of an exit are low but not insignificant.

Euroscepticism is also high in the Czech Republic and politicians have called for a Czexit referendum.

I could do this all night should i carry on?

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

Why are you framing it to April 2019, there was a poll published today in the Sunday Independent that showed support was down.

I don't think Irexit will happen or should happen myself btw but why choose that timeline?

I don't read the Independent. Can you link to the poll?

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Considering which countries want to leave the EU, several others could potentially quit. Among them:

Poland is arguing with the EU over a controversial reform of its judiciary and in a recent poll a third of those questioned said they rejected EU membership. The risk of Polexit was acknowledged in November by European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister, who told reporters: “The matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible”.

Hungary is also in dispute with the EU, having been admonished by the European Parliament. Lawmakers said it was becoming an authoritarian state at the heart of Europe that encourages nationalists across the continent to follow the same path, and voted overwhelmingly in September to label Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Although unlikely, moves to expel it from the EU are possible.

In Sweden, the right-wing anti-immigration Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 elections, leading to political deadlock. While they will not be part of any new coalition that is formed, their advance suggests that anti-EU sentiment is rising there too, despite a survey showing Swedes are still overwhelmingly against Swexit.

In Estonia, the populist Eurosceptic EKRE party is gaining ground ahead of elections on March 3, 2019 and could become the third-largest party there. Once again, the chances of an exit are low but not insignificant.

Euroscepticism is also high in the Czech Republic and politicians have called for a Czexit referendum.

I could do this all night should i carry on?

Carry on all you like. How many of these countries have planned to have an EU in/out referendum?

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The global economy is also taking a hit. The EU slowdown is part of that hit.

As I mentioned in that post, other areas recovered quicker than the eurozone so a slowdown is less strange, Eurozone recovery has only been occurring for 6 years, why is the recession risk for major European economies not a sign of incompetent leadership within those countries while recession risk in the UK is?

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Carry on all you like. How many of these countries have planned to have an EU in/out referendum?

Obviously reading and research isn't your strongest point, would you like me to come around and wipe your ass while I'm at it?

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

As I mentioned in that post, other areas recovered quicker than the eurozone so a slowdown is less strange, Eurozone recovery has only been occurring for 6 years, why is the recession risk for major European economies not a sign of incompetent leadership within those countries while recession risk in the UK is?

I'm not sure what point of mine you are discussing here?

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I don't read the Independent. Can you link to the poll?

There has also been an appreciable increase in concern in relation to the EU and Brexit: 56pc agreed the EU would respect Ireland's special position with the UK in the Brexit negotiations, down six points since July 2018; 77pc agreed that, historically, the EU has been good to Ireland, down seven points; 68pc agreed that, on balance, the EU has been good to Ireland over the past 10 years, down eight points; while 71pc agreed the EU had more control over Ireland's economic situation than the Government, down one point in a year.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/majority-fail-to-back-leo-varadkars-brexit-strategy-38351843.html

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Obviously reading and research isn't your strongest point, would you like me to come around and wipe your ass while I'm at it?

Bookies' odds. And you didn't even understand them. Enough said.

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

There has also been an appreciable increase in concern in relation to the EU and Brexit: 56pc agreed the EU would respect Ireland's special position with the UK in the Brexit negotiations, down six points since July 2018; 77pc agreed that, historically, the EU has been good to Ireland, down seven points; 68pc agreed that, on balance, the EU has been good to Ireland over the past 10 years, down eight points; while 71pc agreed the EU had more control over Ireland's economic situation than the Government, down one point in a year.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/majority-fail-to-back-leo-varadkars-brexit-strategy-38351843.html

What's that got to do with Italy??

steddyeddy

Enter name here wrote: »

Considering which countries want to leave the EU, several others could potentially quit. Among them:

Poland is arguing with the EU over a controversial reform of its judiciary and in a recent poll a third of those questioned said they rejected EU membership. The risk of Polexit was acknowledged in November by European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish Prime Minister, who told reporters: “The matter is dramatically serious. The risk is deadly serious. Polexit is possible”.

Hungary is also in dispute with the EU, having been admonished by the European Parliament. Lawmakers said it was becoming an authoritarian state at the heart of Europe that encourages nationalists across the continent to follow the same path, and voted overwhelmingly in September to label Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government a “systemic threat to the rule of law”. Although unlikely, moves to expel it from the EU are possible.

In Sweden, the right-wing anti-immigration Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 elections, leading to political deadlock. While they will not be part of any new coalition that is formed, their advance suggests that anti-EU sentiment is rising there too, despite a survey showing Swedes are still overwhelmingly against Swexit.

In Estonia, the populist Eurosceptic EKRE party is gaining ground ahead of elections on March 3, 2019 and could become the third-largest party there. Once again, the chances of an exit are low but not insignificant.

Euroscepticism is also high in the Czech Republic and politicians have called for a Czexit referendum.

I could do this all night should i carry on?

There's loonies in every country. It doesn't mean the country is planning to leave. For instance there's small support in Ireland for rejoining the UK, but as I say, loonies everywhere.

Enter name here

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Bookies' odds. And you didn't even understand them. Enough said.

Excellent comment, back in December 2015 I had a lovely wager on DT to win everyone said I was mad. I continued to place every spare cent on DT. Fast forward Jan 2017 paid cash for my house in April 2017 and now live mortgage free imagine that. Pretty sure I understand odds more than you could imagine.

Augme

A total of 59 per cent of Italians have a positive view of the EU, while 39 per cent see it in a negative light.


So let me get this right, this is a sign that itatly want to leave the EU? And to think, lll this time I've completely misunderstood statistics.

Melanchthon

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure what point of mine you are discussing here?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU aren't terrified. Brexit won't be a success.

Recession means that Brexit is not a success, thats an OK viewpoint to have, but it begs the question how successful is the eurozone now as the same experts are worried about recession in its major economies.

The prevailing mood of the thread is that the UK is being governed by incompetents, I am not sure I disagree completely with this view point, I am making the argument though that the Eurozone leadership is also failing badly.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What's that got to do with Italy??

My f-ck up there had been re-reading that article thought referring to irish polling

Enter name here

A little light reading. See what one of the world's leading hedge fund managers is doing.

https://moneyweek.com/483882/the-man-betting-18bn-on-euro-failure/

But yes let's believe all the Irish economic geniuses here and say how grand the EU really is and how it is going to go on and prosper.

Professor Moriarty

Enter name here wrote: »

Excellent comment, back in December 2015 I had a lovely wager on DT to win everyone said I was mad. I continued to lay every spare cent on DT. Fast forward Jan 2017 paid cash for my house in April 2017 and now live mortgage free imagine that. Pretty sure I understand odds more than you could imagine.

I'd say you're worth an absolute fortune.

Professor Moriarty

Melanchthon wrote: »

Recession means that Brexit is not a success, thats an OK viewpoint to have, but it begs the question how successful is the eurozone now as the same experts are worried about recession in its major economies.

The prevailing mood of the thread is that the UK is being governed by incompetents, I am not sure I disagree completely with this view point, I am making the argument though that the Eurozone leadership is also failing badly.

Well, my point relates to the EU as a unified economic bloc. Naturally, countries within the EU will have ups and downs and have governments of varying quality. But that in itself doesn't mean that the EU isn't good for their economies.

Britain's economy has suffered as a result of the referendum and the uncertainty Brexit continues to create. If they crash out of the EU, it will be a hammer blow to an economy that is already stalling.

My f-ck up there had been re-reading that article thought referring to irish polling

No worries. The Irish stats you quoted made for interesting reading.

killanena

I get they can't have another brexit referendum because it goes against what a referendum means but why not have a referendum on whether they should be another brexit referendum or not and if they vote yes it would cancel the original out? xD

Enter name here

killanena wrote: »

I get they can't have another brexit referendum because it goes against what a referendum means but why not have a referendum on whether they should be another brexit referendum or not and if they vote yes it would cancel the original out? xD

Great idea, then if they vote yes we could have another referendum on whether the referendum to hold another referendum was worth a referendum anyway.
You know what people turn old enough to vote every week and every week people die we should think about a daily referendum just in case the voting mood of the snowflakes changes dramatically from day to day.

killanena

Enter name here wrote:

Great idea, then if they vote yes we could have another referendum on whether the referendum to hold another referendum was worth a referendum anyway. You know what people turn old enough to vote every week and every week people die we should think about a daily referendum just in case the voting mood of the snowflakes changes dramatically from day to day.

Now we're on to something

Laois_Man

Enter name here wrote: »

A little light reading. See what one of the world's leading hedge fund managers is doing.

https://moneyweek.com/483882/the-man-betting-18bn-on-euro-failure/

But yes let's believe all the Irish economic geniuses here and say how grand the EU really is and how it is going to go on and prosper.

Not really sure what the point is. There has always been recessions and there always will be. It’s a natural cycle not unique to the EU. There’s nothing genius about it.

Enter name here

Laois_Man wrote: »

Not really sure what the point is. There has always been recessions and there always will be. It’s a natural cycle not unique to the EU. There’s nothing genius about it.

The point of the article is, that the world's top economists are not predicting a recession they are forecasting the total collapse of the EU. I know it's hard for Europhiles to understand and compromise that you cant simply grow an economy by continually printing more money. The failed EU experiment is nearing its end and the Irish should be very very worried as we are a country that depends on others for handouts as we have no capability to stand on our own. The only reason our economy is surviving thus far is we are seen as a tax haven for large corporations to use at there will. Take away that and Ireland's next recession will make the last look like a training run.

PeadarCo

Enter name here wrote:

The point of the article is, that the world's top economists are not predicting a recession they are forecasting the total collapse of the EU. I know it's hard for Europhiles to understand and compromise that you cant simply grow an economy by continually printing more money. The failed EU experiment is nearing its end and the Irish should be very very worried as we are a country that depends on others for handouts as we have no capability to stand on our own. The only reason our economy is surviving thus far is we are seen as a tax haven for large corporations to use at there will. Take away that and Ireland's next recession will make the last look like a training run.

If you are talking about printing money both the UK and USA have also done that. One of the UKs saving graces so far has been they have had a central Bank that has taken leaving the EU seriously and stepped in to prop up its economy since the vote. And even with that intervention the UK economy is still verging on recession. So I presume you are also predicting the collapse of the UK on the same basis.

And what top economist is predicting the collapse of the EU.

Enter name here

PeadarCo wrote: »

And what top economist is predicting the collapse of the EU.

Getting to the stage I'm almost embarrassed to admit I'm Irish. Are you really that inept that you can't do your own research or look outside your bubble to see what is really happening outside Ireland.
Everyone wants a link for this and that, be adventurous I know its hard for the Irish sometimes but try doing things yourself instead of waiting on handouts and others to do everything for you.

eagle eye

Enter name here wrote:

Everyone wants a link for this and that, be adventurous I know its hard for the Irish sometimes but try doing things yourself instead of waiting on handouts and others to do everything for you.

Awesome, love it.

quokula

Enter name here wrote: »

The point of the article is, that the world's top economists are not predicting a recession they are forecasting the total collapse of the EU. I know it's hard for Europhiles to understand and compromise that you cant simply grow an economy by continually printing more money. The failed EU experiment is nearing its end and the Irish should be very very worried as we are a country that depends on others for handouts as we have no capability to stand on our own. The only reason our economy is surviving thus far is we are seen as a tax haven for large corporations to use at there will. Take away that and Ireland's next recession will make the last look like a training run.

It’s not “top economists”, it’s a single hedge fund manager which even the article you linked describes as “dramatically contrarian” - if anything that shows the article says the opposite of what you think it does. It’s like citing an article about a “contrarian” scientist who doesn’t believe in climate change as proof that top scientists believe it doesn’t exist.

The article is also well over a year old and his predictions are showing no sign of happening.

Enter name here

quokula wrote: »

It’s not “top economists”, it’s a single hedge fund manager which even the article you linked describes as “dramatically contrarian” - if anything that shows the article says the opposite of what you think it does. It’s like citing an article about a “contrarian” scientist who doesn’t believe in climate change as proof that top scientists believe it doesn’t exist.

The article is also well over a year old and his predictions are showing no sign of happening.

I offered one link from a reputable source, there are many links and many stories. Don't worry though I understand how difficult it can be to think for yourself and actually do research, so i will clear my schedule today and spend the remainder of the day sourcing hedge fund reports, stock market trends, company earning reports and fiscal statements from various CEO's on Fortune top 100 companies.
Would that be enough for you or shall I brew a coffee and serve it with some avocado on toast for you.

8-10

I can't find one either, please share the links and stop being arrogant about it.

I honestly can't name the world's top economists so I don't know who to google, we don't all know what you know

Enter name here

8-10 wrote: »

I can't find one either, please share the links and stop being arrogant about it.

I honestly can't name the world's top economists so I don't know who to google, we don't all know what you know

Here is another reason I stop posting links because if I post a link from one of the British financial sectors people complain its just the UK rubbish making stories etc etc etc.
So takes time and effort to find links without a British influence but just for you seeing you asked nicely, here is another link from one of the world's leading investors offering his warning.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/the-eu-could-collapse-in-the-same-way-the-soviet-union-did-george-soros-warns.html

Stevieluvsye

Enter name here wrote: »

Excellent comment, back in December 2015 I had a lovely wager on DT to win everyone said I was mad. I continued to lay every spare cent on DT. Fast forward Jan 2017 paid cash for my house in April 2017 and now live mortgage free imagine that. Pretty sure I understand odds more than you could imagine.

If you lay him that actually means backing against him to win

8-10

Enter name here wrote: »

Here is another reason I stop posting links because if I post a link from one of the British financial sectors people complain its just the UK rubbish making stories etc etc etc.
So takes time and effort to find links without a British influence but just for you seeing you asked nicely, here is another link from one of the world's leading investors offering his warning.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/12/the-eu-could-collapse-in-the-same-way-the-soviet-union-did-george-soros-warns.html

So do you believe him when he says: "the public was becoming increasingly aware of the “dire consequences” of the U.K.’s departure from the EU" in this article?

You posted that the UK will go on to prosper after leaving the EU so how does that line up with the Dire Consequences that this economist is quoting in the article you linked?

PeadarCo

Enter name here wrote:

Getting to the stage I'm almost embarrassed to admit I'm Irish. Are you really that inept that you can't do your own research or look outside your bubble to see what is really happening outside Ireland. Everyone wants a link for this and that, be adventurous I know its hard for the Irish sometimes but try doing things yourself instead of waiting on handouts and others to do everything for you.

I can see what's happening outside Ireland. I specifically referenced what has been happening in the UK and USA.

I take that as you can't reference a top economist that you are just making that bit up.

eagle eye

Stevieluvsye wrote:

If you lay him that actually means backing against him to win

The term lay has been used many times as a description of placing bets.
It's only when Betfair arrived on the scene that it became a big term for taking bets on an outcome.

Enter name here

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

If you lay him that actually means backing against him to win

I continued to place every spare cent on DT.

Corrected but nice play on words .

8-10

Enter name here wrote: »

I continued to place every spare cent on DT.

Corrected but nice play on words .

Aftertiming shouldn't be allowed without a screenshot of photo, just for fairness. I've posted this multiple times in the past not singling you out.

Posting after the fact with no proof is bad etiquette in gambling FYI

eagle eye

8-10 wrote:

Aftertiming shouldn't be allowed without a screenshot of photo, just for fairness. I've posted this multiple times in the past not singling you out.
Posting after the fact with no proof is bad etiquette in gambling FYI

This isn't a gambling thread so aftertiming isn't a thing here.

Enter name here

8-10 wrote: »

Aftertiming shouldn't be allowed without a screenshot of photo, just for fairness. I've posted this multiple times in the past not singling you out.

Posting after the fact with no proof is bad etiquette in gambling FYI

Well as i wasn't living in Ireland at the time and wasn't part of this forum, I'll try to be more understanding of the etiquette then shall I.

Odds of UK leaving on the 31st are currently 27/20 better than bank interest and nice bet. Is that enough notice for you?

Here is another one for you. Odds that Trump will NOT be impeached during his 1st term 1/6 another great bet and easy money to be made.

Enough of that anyway back to the original purpose of the thread.

8-10

Enter name here wrote: »

Well as i wasn't living in Ireland at the time and wasn't part of this forum, I'll try to be more understanding of the etiquette then shall I.

Odds of UK leaving on the 31st are currently 27/20 better than bank interest and nice bet. Is that enough notice for you?

Oh it's not specific to this forum I was speaking about gambling etiquette in general.

But yes if you have a post stating the bet you're taking in advance there's no need for screenshots alright.

I agree those are decent odds, good luck!

Laois_Man

Enter name here wrote: »

The point of the article is, that the world's top economists are not predicting a recession they are forecasting the total collapse of the EU.

That is not what the article says.

It actually says......

So far, the man himself has said very little about the thinking behind the move. But there are three good reasons for thinking the eurozone could well be heading for a sharp correction, if not a complete collapse

ancapailldorcha

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0unyDh6wAo

"Temple of Gammon".... How very true.

steddyeddy

I love this. The Telegraph, proponent of all things Boris, state that the Pound hit a two year low due to no deal Brexit talk. Due in part to them and they're elevation of one of their own staff to a position he's completely unsuitable for.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/29/markets-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-city-prepares-50bn-blockbuster/

Twenty Grand

steddyeddy wrote: »

I love this. The Telegraph, proponent of all things Boris, state that the Pound hit a two year low due to no deal Brexit talk. Due in part to them and they're elevation of one of their own staff to a position he's completely unsuitable for.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/07/29/markets-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100-city-prepares-50bn-blockbuster/

And Brexit just in time for the Christmas shopping.

steddyeddy

The pound is now 1% away from its lowest point in 34 years under Boris.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/30/sterling-pound-us-dollar-euro-boris-johnson-hard-line-no-deal-brexit-bank-of-england-business-live

blinding

steddyeddy wrote: »

The pound is now 1% away from its lowest point in 34 years under Boris.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/30/sterling-pound-us-dollar-euro-boris-johnson-hard-line-no-deal-brexit-bank-of-england-business-live

Excellent for Exports and Tourism and British people will holiday at home .

ohnonotgmail

blinding wrote: »

Excellent for Exports and Tourism and British people will holiday at home .

and **** for imports. and **** for people who want to holiday abroad.dont try and dress this up as a good thing for britain.

blinding

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

and **** for imports. and **** for people who want to holiday abroad.dont try and dress this up as a good thing for britain.

Plenty of good places to holiday in Britain . Certainly it is good for Exports and Tourism .

Stevieluvsye

I'd hold off until September if you are looking to buy STG.

Will be close to parity if this stand off continues, which IMO it will

Enter name here

That#s nothing wait until after Brexit and watch the EU plummet to depths never witnessed before.

ohnonotgmail

Enter name here wrote: »

That#s nothing wait until after Brexit and watch the EU plummet to depths never witnessed before.

Come again?

ILoveYourVibes

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0unyDh6wAo

"Temple of Gammon".... How very true.

This man needs to receive my look of contempt. He needs to see it with his eyeballs.

Boggles

Enter name here wrote: »

That#s nothing wait until after Brexit and watch the EU plummet to depths never witnessed before.

WW1 or WW2?