Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

quokula

Given that Corbyn voted against the withdrawal agreement and in favour of amendments for a second referendum, while Clarke voted for the withdrawal agreement and against a second referendum (but outside of voting record their rhetoric is near identical, both wanting to exit while remaining in the customs union), it's utterly bizarre that the Lib Dems would support Clarke. And that's before you get to the constitutional convention that the leader of the opposition should be next in line to form a government. Or before you think about the fact that in addition to alienating Labour, Clarke wouldn't carry most of his own party which is increasingly pro-Brexit, so how he could command a majority is a mystery. It looks very much like the Lib Dems care more about trying to play politics and get one over on Labour than stopping Brexit.

Valhallapt

UK saying it’ll end FoM from day one no deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-eu-brexit-freedom-of-movement-ends-november-boris-johnson-priti-patel-home-office-a9064376.html

I know FoM deals with employment and social welfare etc, and that EU citizens can still fly there on holiday, but one would think that having an open border with Ireland could cause a issue here.

What’s to stop EU citizens entering the U.K. without going through their border force? I.e. being completely unregistered as having entered the U.K.?

briany

First Up wrote: »

"Brexiter reveals he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about shock".

Funny.

As David Davis said, the thing about the EU is that they read everything. To flip that around, the problem with a lot of Brexit supporters is that they don't read anything. Well, nothing of detail, anyway. Their dislike of the EU comes not from carefully revising the galaxy of legislation that comprises EU membership, but from years of reading the Telegraph.

Even Boris Johnson himself is not a man for the detail. Look at that interview he did with Andrew Neil. He knew all about A24, paragraph B, but he was virtually unaware of what A24, paragraph C read. When Neil pointedly asked him what it said, his answer was classic: "......no!". If you can't even get the heads of the Brexit movement to be up on the detail, what hope has Joe Soap got?

The best person to make a cogent and erudite case for Brexit is Jacob Rees Mogg, but I'll say something about him: he hasn't got the back of his fellow Brexit voter on the street. His politics are very much of the neo-liberal, dismantle the welfare state and send the poor back to the workhouse sort. He'd promote this in a very charming, erudite way, but he's absolutely no friend of the ordinary person. The gas thing is that after years of politicians pretending to be normal people, like David Cameron struggling to sound like he'd really eat a pasty, his supporters find Mogg's behaviour refreshing, which is hilarious.

Valhallapt wrote: »

UK saying it’ll end FoM from day one no deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-eu-brexit-freedom-of-movement-ends-november-boris-johnson-priti-patel-home-office-a9064376.html

I know FoM deals with employment and social welfare etc, and that EU citizens can still fly there on holiday, but one would think that having an open border with Ireland could cause a issue here.

What’s to stop EU citizens entering the U.K. without going through their border force? I.e. being completely unregistered as having entered the U.K.?

I'll spell this out - the UK government have every intention of putting up a border in Ireland. They're just going to wait until Ireland/the EU put one up on the southern side first. At this point, the UK will go, "Ah, we see you've put up a border. Oh, well. Pretty sh*tty of ye to break the GFA and all that, but no use in crying over spilled milk, now. Only fair we put up one of our own, now that the GFA, which YOU guys broke, is over. See you on Tuesday for trade talks, yeah? Cool."

That is their plan. Plain and simple. They're banking on the idea that the EU is so officious and so rule-abiding that they will not tolerate an open border for very long and will do what the UK government has always hoped it would, that being to disregard the feelings of the Irish government and heave it under that bus, while Brexiteers in the UK laugh heartily as Ireland cries, thinking it's big friend would protect it.

marno21

Valhallapt wrote: »

UK saying it’ll end FoM from day one no deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-eu-brexit-freedom-of-movement-ends-november-boris-johnson-priti-patel-home-office-a9064376.html

I know FoM deals with employment and social welfare etc, and that EU citizens can still fly there on holiday, but one would think that having an open border with Ireland could cause a issue here.

What’s to stop EU citizens entering the U.K. without going through their border force? I.e. being completely unregistered as having entered the U.K.?

Complete nonsense that they'll both end freedom of movement and have an unsecured land border with the European Union with hundreds of open border crossings.

The drivel has really taken on a whole new level since Boris took office. Of course, I come back once again to the fact that there is no coherent opposition to this and it continues unabated. Corbyn's Labour continue to reach new levels of uselessness.

Valhallapt

Valhallapt wrote: »

UK saying it’ll end FoM from day one no deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-eu-brexit-freedom-of-movement-ends-november-boris-johnson-priti-patel-home-office-a9064376.html

I know FoM deals with employment and social welfare etc, and that EU citizens can still fly there on holiday, but one would think that having an open border with Ireland could cause a issue here.

What’s to stop EU citizens entering the U.K. without going through their border force? I.e. being completely unregistered as having entered the U.K.?

While it’s probably just more bluster, there is a chance this is the first nail in the CTA coffin.

That’ll be pretty rough on NI. But truth is ROI would find Schengen much more advantageous.

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

Given that Corbyn voted against the withdrawal agreement and in favour of amendments for a second referendum, while Clarke voted for the withdrawal agreement and against a second referendum (but outside of voting record their rhetoric is near identical, both wanting to exit while remaining in the customs union), it's utterly bizarre that the Lib Dems would support Clarke. And that's before you get to the constitutional convention that the leader of the opposition should be next in line to form a government. Or before you think about the fact that in addition to alienating Labour, Clarke wouldn't carry most of his own party which is increasingly pro-Brexit, so how he could command a majority is a mystery. It looks very much like the Lib Dems care more about trying to play politics and get one over on Labour than stopping Brexit.

That's one way of looking at it. But you do have to put your hands over your face and peek through your fingers to get that view if you're in any way objective. Because the objective view is the leader of one party is suggesting; not herself, or any other party leader, but an old chap who has no future in politics, but crucially will attract the one thing all the other parties can't. Rebels from the government party.

quokula

prawnsambo wrote: »

That's one way of looking at it. But you do have to put your hands over your face and peek through your fingers to get that view if you're in any way objective. Because the objective view is the leader of one party is suggesting; not herself, or any other party leader, but an old chap who has no future in politics, but crucially will attract the one thing all the other parties can't. Rebels from the government party.

As leader of the fourth largest party with 14 MPs she’d be a bit of a laughing stock if she nominated herself.

The Lib Dem’s look to be playing the same game as Boris’ fake EU negotiations, not trying to actually achieve anything but going into a general election trying to blame everyone else for the chaos to win seats.

prawnsambo

quokula wrote: »

As leader of the fourth largest party with 14 MPs she’d be a bit of a laughing stock if she nominated herself.

The Lib Dem’s look to be playing the same game as Boris’ fake EU negotiations, not trying to actually achieve anything but going into a general election trying to blame everyone else for the chaos to win seats.

I'm not seeing any direct refutation of my view on this. There's only one way to outvote the government and that's with the support of Tory rebels. All Corbyn seems to be intent on is getting the top job. And quite frankly he seems to be enabling Johnson in getting his hard brexit. So that he can use the chaos to win number 10.

briany

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not seeing any direct refutation of my view on this. There's only one way to outvote the government and that's with the support of Tory rebels. All Corbyn seems to be intent on is getting the top job. And quite frankly he seems to be enabling Johnson in getting his hard brexit. So that he can use the chaos to win number 10.

A conundrum of the HoC is that there are a majority of MPs against a no-deal, but not a majority in favour of any particular alternative. In this state of political paralysis, there isn't much for Corbyn to do, except to play some political games. If no-deal is to be defeated, the solution will not come from Corbyn, or any party leader, but from a temporary coalition of concerned MPs who will briefly put party allegiances aside.

Limpy

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not seeing any direct refutation of my view on this. There's only one way to outvote the government and that's with the support of Tory rebels. All Corbyn seems to be intent on is getting the top job. And quite frankly he seems to be enabling Johnson in getting his hard brexit. So that he can use the chaos to win number 10.

Quite frankly the Tory rebels have no choice. When it comes down to a zero sum game to decide they will have to pick Corbyn. That's what he's waiting for. So he just needs to hang on till 31/10 and he could become Pm. The tories managed to get 3 prime ministers elected out of this referendum so maybe someone else deserves a chance.

prawnsambo

Limpy wrote: »

Quite frankly the Tory rebels have no choice. When it comes down to a zero sum game to decide they will have to pick Corbyn. That's what he's waiting for. So he just needs to hang on till 31/10 and he could become Pm. The tories managed to get 3 prime ministers elected out of this referendum so maybe someone else deserves a chance.

He's playing a dangerous game. And that's only for a VONC. Which will precipitate an election.The same Tory rebels may find it harder to hold their noses for a vote to put Corbyn in number 10. If Johnson sets the election date for before b-day 3, they might just take their chances and leave off the whole GNU thing.

reslfj

fash wrote: »

It was the best deal on offer. The next deal will be a surrender agreement with whatever parts of the UK that remain - requiring the UK to comply with the same terms but incur more cost to compensate for not taking the "best deal" and limiting the backstop to NI only.

If it ends up with a 'No Deal' Brexit and much need for the backstop, the EU27 will have to rethink its unilaterally actions - long haul lorries, planes etc. - and let the UK feel the full effect of the 'No Deal' immediately.

We are not going to punish the UK. But we should not do anything mitigating the loss of agreements unless it is absolutely vital for the EU27 itself. And believe me, the results of a 'No Deal' will be more than hard enough to literally kill the UK economy.

It is OK for the people of the UK to stay out of the EU. But it's not OK to force a closure of the land border in Ireland or not giving full legal rights to the about 5 million (UK+EU27) citizens now living legally out of their own country.

The UK must simply be forced to accept the full backstop ASAP. No backstop will badly hurt mostly NI but also Ireland and risk the peace on the island too.

It is just not acceptable.

Lars

PS! Paying the £39bn or whatever the UK owes, is far less urgent.

Imreoir2

reslfj wrote: »

If it ends up with a 'No Deal' Brexit and much need for the backstop, the EU27 will have to rethink its unilaterally actions - long haul lorries, planes etc. - and let the UK feel the full effect of the 'No Deal' immediately.

We are not going to punish the UK. But we should not do anything mitigating the loss of agreements unless it is absolutely vital for the EU27 itself. And believe me, the results of a 'No Deal' will be more than hard enough to literally kill the UK economy.

It is OK for the people of the UK to stay out of the EU. But it's not OK to force a closure of the land border in Ireland or not giving full legal rights to the about 5 million (UK+EU27) citizens now living legally out of their own country.

The UK must simply be forced to accept the full backstop ASAP. No backstop will badly hurt mostly NI but also Ireland and risk the peace on the island too.

It is just not acceptable.

Lars

PS! Paying the £39bn or whatever the UK owes, is far less urgent.

If there is any method to Johnsons madness, it is to hold an election in the first days of no-deal Brexit, hopefully (for him) win a majority which allows him to throw the DUP under his big red bus, and agree a NI only backstop.

The EU should not do anything that would make that outcome harder if it seems like this is his strategy, don't make it harder for your adversary to give you what you want. If he fails, or his successor fails to deliver, then crashing the UK economey remains in the EU arsenal. The trouble with taking the nuclear option is that you have no leverage left over your opponent.

Enzokk

Valhallapt wrote: »

UK saying it’ll end FoM from day one no deal

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-eu-brexit-freedom-of-movement-ends-november-boris-johnson-priti-patel-home-office-a9064376.html

I know FoM deals with employment and social welfare etc, and that EU citizens can still fly there on holiday, but one would think that having an open border with Ireland could cause a issue here.

What’s to stop EU citizens entering the U.K. without going through their border force? I.e. being completely unregistered as having entered the U.K.?

I seem to have fallen foul of the mods, so a repeat of my previous post. This is a mad decision. If a nurse from Spain goes home and returns after the 1st November they will deport her as she will want to work in the UK and is not going for a holiday only.

I only wished we had the committee's still running, so the new cohort of ministers would face questioning on their policies and how they expect it to work.

CelticRambler

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If there is any method to Johnsons madness, it is to hold an election in the first days of no-deal Brexit, hopefully (for him) win a majority which allows him to throw the DUP under his big red bus, and agree a NI only backstop.

The strategists in Britain's political parties (and factions therein) seem to be living in the same glorious past that's fed the Brexit cult. JRM's machinations came to nothing, TIG/ChangeUK flared and fizzled, UKIP v.2 has come to nothing, and the Brexit Party's greatest success so far has been to make a lot of noise taking up their soon-to-be-vacated seats in the European Parliament.

So whoever is planning whatever electoral coup, it's very likely that the DUP will still have a sufficient number of seats to warrant courting by the Tories ... unless enough Tories can swallow the idea of a coalition with the Brexit Party.

Berserker

reslfj wrote: »

The UK must simply be forced to accept the full backstop ASAP. No backstop will badly hurt mostly NI but also Ireland and risk the peace on the island too.

It is just not acceptable.

Who is going to force the UK to accept the full backstop?

Melanchthon

Valhallapt wrote: »

brickster69 wrote: »

Yes, for EU laws not to be higher than UK laws.

My friends from Derry shudder at the thought of this.

What like Eamonn McCann a lad that actually marched on what your refencing about his views on the EU

Stop moaning ffs

Berserker wrote: »

Who is going to force the UK to accept the full backstop?

Nobody is going to force them.

Events and circumstances will force them however.

FrancieBrady

Berserker wrote: »

Who is going to force the UK to accept the full backstop?

Themselves...if they go out with No Deal.

They won't have any bargaining power when they get back to the table.

BonnieSituation

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If there is any method to Johnsons madness, it is to hold an election in the first days of no-deal Brexit, hopefully (for him) win a majority which allows him to throw the DUP under his big red bus, and agree a NI only backstop.

The EU should not do anything that would make that outcome harder if it seems like this is his strategy, don't make it harder for your adversary to give you what you want. If he fails, or his successor fails to deliver, then crashing the UK economey remains in the EU arsenal. The trouble with taking the nuclear option is that you have no leverage left over your opponent.

But once they're out and they're 3rd countries and the WA won't apply and the "deal" they get from the EU will be even more unpalatable for them.

BonnieSituation

Melanchthon wrote: »

What like Eamonn McCann a lad that actually marched on what your refencing about his views on the EU

Eamonn is doing what now? He's as relevant as Gerry Fitt at this remove.

Let's not forget him and his PBP cronies were pro-Brexit.

kowloon

looksee wrote: »

Brickster you quoted the post requesting that you name just one benefit of leaving the EU and you went off on a tangent - I would really like to hear one solid reason for leaving, one real advantage?

Taking back control, innit?

Valhallapt

This is a good article by David McWilliams, I think he had something similar on his blog a few weeks back.

https://amp.ft.com/content/eaae31b2-c004-11e9-9381-78bab8a70848?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6&__twitter_impression=true

Just highlights how Ireland is much better off in the single market, how much stronger she is than the UK, and it’s a bit of a two fingers to brexiteers.

It’s in the FT so hopefully some of the head bangers in Brexit land will read it.

reslfj

Valhallapt wrote: »

UK saying it’ll end FoM from day one no deal

I know FoM deals with employment and social welfare etc, and that EU citizens can still fly there on holiday, but one would think that having an open border with Ireland could cause a issue here.

What’s to stop EU citizens entering the U.K. without going through their border force? I.e. being completely unregistered as having entered the U.K.?

The CTA is using the same registrations and rules for people arriving in UK and in Ireland*. Any (non criminal) EU citizen with a passport can enter the UK just by showing their passport at the UK point of entry (Eurostar, ferry port or airport).
Arriving to Ireland with the same passport will let you into the CTA, too.

I know that the CTA has or has had some sloppy rules - like different visa rules in UK and Ireland for people from ZA and from some tiny Pacific island states. I think this will be fixed.

The CTA is not law but an understanding. Given that the CTA has worked from before the UK and Ireland joined the EEC in 1973 and both countries has agreed the CTA should be the GFA basis for the open border for people - it has not been a problem with Brexit.

When I as an EU citizen can fly to London, show my passport and is allowed in, why should I take the trouble to fly to Dublin and pass the land border ?

For people with papers/passports allowing entry borders can't be used to control permanent stay or work (at least not for 90 days)

The UK borders has always been under full UK+Irish control and not EU control.

Lars

Valhallapt

reslfj wrote: »

The CTA is using the same registrations and rules for people arriving in UK and in Ireland*. Any (non criminal) EU citizen with a passport can enter the UK just by showing their passport at the UK point of entry (Eurostar, ferry port or airport).
Arriving to Ireland with the same passport will let you into the CTA, too.

I know that the CTA has or has had some sloppy rules - like different visa rules in UK and Ireland for people from ZA and from some tiny Pacific island states. I think this will be fixed.

The CTA is not law but an understanding. Given that the CTA has worked from before the UK and Ireland joined the EEC in 1973 and both countries has agreed the CTA should be the GFA basis for the open border for people - it has not been a problem with Brexit.

When I as an EU citizen can fly to London, show my passport and is allowed in, why should I take the trouble to fly to Dublin and pass the land border ?

For people with papers/passports allowing entry borders can't be used to control permanent stay or work (at least not for 90 days)

The UK borders has always been under full UK+Irish control and not EU control.

Lars

Hmm while it is possible just to show a passport, I think they are now routinely scanned and cross referenced with SIS 2, the UK will not have access to SIS 2 on day one no deal. I am open to correction but I don’t believe IE shares entry and exit info with the U.K. outside of SIS2? Perhaps they did in the past..

swampgas

I came across an interesting index, the Fragile States Index, recently. On the scale the UK is graded as a very stable country, but the worrying fact is the upward trend of its score. (Low scores indicate stability.)

I also stumbled across http://www.progressivepulse.org/ which contains a large extract of the report on the UK, and contains this text:

After scoring among the top 10 most worsened countries in the 2018 FSI, the United Kingdom is this year the fourth-most worsened country, The United Kingdom has again seen increases in its indicator scores for Group Grievance, Factionalized Elites, and State Legitimacy, among the same indicators that have been driving the country’s spiral over the past decade —indeed, more long-term, the United Kingdom is now ranked as the 15th most worsened country on the FSI since 2009.

Much of the current turmoil can be attributed to the country’s farcical efforts to make good on the 2016 referendum where, after a highly divisive —and arguably, disingenuous and even dishonest —campaign, a slim majority of Britons voted in favor of leaving the European Union. Given that the government’s efforts to execute “Brexit” have gone from bad to worse in the early months of 2019, it is likely that the United Kingdom’s score could easily have been much worse —and may well be in the 2020 FSI.

And this caught my eye as well:

One further worry is the External Intervention Indicator in terms of vast amounts of dark money going towards the Brexit campaign and more recently the Brexit party. There have also been millions spent on dark ad and Facebook targeting. Whether this is ultimately Russian or ultra-right wing US money is as yet unclear.

The UK is a long way from a failed state right now, but I will be very curious to see what the report in 2020 looks like.

Some links:
https://fragilestatesindex.org/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index
http://www.progressivepulse.org/brexit/the-uk-and-the-fragile-states-index

reslfj

Berserker wrote: »

Who is going to force the UK to accept the full backstop?

Its crashing political system and shortly after the UK economy. No country can survive without external trade on fair and level playing ground - and the WTO's tariffs and rules in itself isn't.

• when farm and fish products can't be sold on the EU market, a few but very visible people in rural ares will face closing their business
• when cars can't be exported to the EU27 due to the 10% tariff and some extra costs and car factories start laying off people
• when food can't be delivered JIT due to border delays and then at higher prices
• when UK services can't be delivered out of the UK
• when .....

very many will not like it and something will break - sooner rather than later.

Except for the WA the EU27 has no obligations to agree to anything to a 3. country and if is does is will require costly concessions from the 3. country (the UK)

Have a nice Christmas

Lars

jimmycrackcorm

Enzokk wrote: »

I seem to have fallen foul of the mods, so a repeat of my previous post. This is a mad decision. If a nurse from Spain goes home and returns after the 1st November they will deport her as she will want to work in the UK and is not going for a holiday only.

It's expected that the Spanish nurse currently working in the UK world have already applied for settled status and so be allowed to return to work there.

Interestingly, I saw a report that since the 16 referendum, the NHS has recruited 4000 Asian nurses and medical staff to replace EU workers who have left.

reslfj

Valhallapt wrote: »

Hmm while it is possible just to show a passport, I think they are now routinely scanned and cross referenced with SIS 2, the UK will not have access to SIS 2 on day one no deal. I am open to correction but I don’t believe IE shares entry and exit info with the U.K. outside of SIS2? Perhaps they did in the past..

Yes, they are scanned (mine was last time i arrived) and the UK may have a database problem post Brexit and the MOU with Ireland may need to include some more data to be exchanged.

But the point is: The EU27 will allow bilateral agreements between member states and the UK on areas that will not cease by TEU A50.3

Ireland and the UK has explicitly been allowed to use the CTA and not be involved in Schengen or other like EU stuff. The UK and Ireland can fix CTA problems between themselves.

Lars

PS! I think the UK will need a lot of border, Europol and other data following a 'No Deal' Brexit. Maybe politicians and HMG should have read the WTO rules and realised WTO is very far from replacing all what the UK loses in a 'No Deal' - indeed in any Brexit.

Enzokk

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

It's expected that the Spanish nurse currently working in the UK world have already applied for settled status and so be allowed to return to work there.

Interestingly, I saw a report that since the 16 referendum, the NHS has recruited 4000 Asian nurses and medical staff to replace EU workers who have left.

There is about 3 million EU citizens in the UK I believe, and in March 600 000 had applied for settled status. The scheme was also supposed to kick in at the end of 2020 and not October 2019. There are many cracks in this system and the crazy thing is it will hurt people in the UK if they go ahead with this.

What about the £30K limit for immigration visas though? If they implement that decision then they can hire as many nurses from Asia as they like, they will have to refuse their applications. I guess they will have a exception for medical staff, but what about the other industries. Its madness, the more you look the more problems you see.