Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Shelga

Crazy thought: is a no-deal Brexit kind of good, in some ways?

UK will be forced to agree to EU conditions sooner or later, so won’t a no-deal at least speed things up in that regard?

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

a GE before brexit will produce the same hung govt and a GE with no deal will just be tories 2 , a GE with no brexit will burn the fires even hotter

This is all very unfortunate for people in the UK, but I have stopped caring. What I care about is the impact on Ireland and the EU, and the impact of an extension on us is basically zero compared to the huge headaches No Deal will bring.

Zubeneschamali

Shelga wrote: »

UK will be forced to agree to EU conditions sooner or later, so won’t a no-deal at least speed things up in that regard?

That is Macron's view - the UK will get a sharp lesson and be back at the table in a more realistic frame of mind and a weaker position.

There is also the possibility that if the EU says No to an extension, the UK will not actually go No Deal since that would be barking mad, and hence will be forced to ratify the WA (good) or revoke A50 (even better).

20silkcut

lawred2 wrote: »

I think that has and continues to be demonstrated.

But no doubt the UK spin on 31st oct will be the EU won’t negotiate won’t extend and allowed article 50 to lapse.
But I suppose any shred of credibility they have will be shot to hell at that stage so no one will care.

Christy42

20silkcut wrote: »

I think the EU should express a willingness to extend just for the optics and demonstrate to the International community that a no deal Brexit is not their desire and entirely the responsibility of the UK.

At a certain point it needs to get called. They were offered this extension in good faith. This is how it was seen. Merkel even reminded them if they had their own solution the EU would listen.

RobAMerc

surely all that is happening here is that Johnson is scaring/backing the HOC into a position where it can a) do nout and crash out or b) accept the WA and Backstop - by forcing the HOC into this position he no longer needs the DUP as more than enough of his own and Labour MPs will accept the WA rather than crash out no ?

PropJoe10

RobAMerc wrote: »

surely all that is happening here is that Johnson is scaring/backing the HOC into a position where it can a) do nout and crash out or b) accept the WA and Backstop - by forcing the HOC into this position he no longer needs the DUP as more than enough of his own and Labour MPs will accept the WA rather than crash out no ?

He's said that the WA with backstop is dead. I think he's trying to frighten the EU into scrapping the backstop but I can't see that working.

Johnson has built his whole career on being a lovable spoofer but that run is about to come to an end if there's any sense at all left in the Commons.

Strazdas

20silkcut wrote: »

I think the EU should express a willingness to extend just for the optics and demonstrate to the International community that a no deal Brexit is not their desire and entirely the responsibility of the UK.

They've already extended twice - to late April and then to end of October. The UK have come up with virtually nothing in the meantime.

eire4

Shelga wrote: »

Crazy thought: is a no-deal Brexit kind of good, in some ways?

UK will be forced to agree to EU conditions sooner or later, so won’t a no-deal at least speed things up in that regard?

I get what your saying and I can see the argument there. They have to come to a deal with the EU at some point anyway. So if they leave October 31st with a no deal that may help speed of the process of them finally getting their act together in terms of agreeing a deal due to the terrible costs that no deal brexit will bring.

Stop moaning ffs

If they are all as against no deal as they say, the blink will come in the 11th hour and WA pass the house. Maybe that’s Boris actual plan

prawnsambo

PropJoe10 wrote: »

He's said that the WA with backstop is dead. I think he's trying to frighten the EU into scrapping the backstop but I can't see that working.

Johnson has built his whole career on being a lovable spoofer but that run is about to come to an end if there's any sense at all left in the Commons.

If he went back to the original backstop, that would work. And it ticks most of the ERG boxes. If he came back with that 'deal' with two weeks to Mad Max brexit, I suspect a lot of MPs would grab it and run.

I'm not sure if he has realised this or not (I reckon he must) is that a Queen's speech is effectively a bill that has to be voted on and can be amended by the opposition. That opens up a fair few cans of worms for him.

Bit cynical

reslfj wrote: »

The EU27 will negotiating nothing new until the WA text - without the transition periods - has been ratified by the UK - nothing, no mini deals,nothing.

Well I think the transition periods are a fundamental part of the WA so I don't think they can be dropped without fundamentally altering the nature of the deal which is unlikely at this stage.

However I think the poster was talking about a post no deal period. At this point if the EU are concerned about citizens rights in the UK, they are free to do a deal on this or any other issue as they wish. I think the UK might be amenable to this as they have already said they were guaranteeing the rights of existing EU residents and might welcome reciprocal arrangements for UK citizens living in EU countries.

jimmycrackcorm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If they are all as against no deal as they say, the blink will come in the 11th hour and WA pass the house. Maybe that’s Boris actual plan

The WA won't pass as is. But a NI restricted Backstop could likely pass at the last minute.
Even if the DUP object and call out their C&S agreement, Boris will have delivered Brexit and can safely go to a GE.
There will be nothing the remainders can do at that point but just accept circumstances.

Boris can simply spin the DUP his line about alternatives to the Backstop but everyone else will just get on with it.

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think the poster was talking about a post no deal period. At this point if the EU are concerned about citizens rights in the UK, they are free to do a deal on this or any other issue as they wish.

I think the point is that the deal the UK will need will be a Free Trade Agreement, and the EU will agree to open talks in return for 3 small considerations from the UK:

€39 billion
Citizens rights guaranteed in UK law
The backstop

BarryD2

robinph wrote: »

If she decides to not follow the instructions of the PM then the next action by parliament will be to remove the monarchy from the process of government entirely.

Ah come now, that's a weak argument. Highly unlikely in the current circumstances that a majority in their House of Commons would take that view.

woejus

Strazdas wrote: »

They've already extended twice - to late April and then to end of October. The UK have come up with virtually nothing in the meantime.

These extensions were pretty much cost-free to the EU. The cost to the UK has been huge in terms of distraction, wasted spending, opportunity cost. If you're a major trading rival to the UK (who are now threatening to deal with the US to undermine your markets), you'd be more than happy to allow them suffer two more years of this rubbish.

Bit cynical

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The WA won't pass as is. But a NI restricted Backstop could likely pass at the last minute.
Even if the DUP object and call out their C&S agreement, Boris will have delivered Brexit and can safely go to a GE.
There will be nothing the remainders can do at that point but just accept circumstances.

Boris can simply spin the DUP his line about alternatives to the Backstop but everyone else will just get on with it.

However Johnson would have to go back to the EU and ask for the WA to be changed first. The current WA is actually better in some ways for the EU, and in particular Ireland, as it ensures free trade with the whole of the UK during the transition period. I don't think this is something Johnson can spring on parliament at the last minute.

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well I think the transition periods are a fundamental part of the WA so I don't think they can be dropped without fundamentally altering the nature of the deal which is unlikely at this stage.

However I think the poster was talking about a post no deal period. At this point if the EU are concerned about citizens rights in the UK, they are free to do a deal on this or any other issue as they wish. I think the UK might be amenable to this as they have already said they were guaranteeing the rights of existing EU residents and might welcome reciprocal arrangements for UK citizens living in EU countries.

Rights of foreign citizens in EU member states are actually not an EU competence. Each MS has their own rules. Something that the leave campaign in the UK pretended otherwise. Having said that, I think most EU MS have already taken the appropriate steps.

And just after I posted the above, along comes a tweet.

BarryD2

Shelga wrote: »

Crazy thought: is a no-deal Brexit kind of good, in some ways?

UK will be forced to agree to EU conditions sooner or later, so won’t a no-deal at least speed things up in that regard?

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

Enzokk

robinph wrote: »

Resigning the whip is different from the Whip resigning.

The Whip resigning is the person with the role of keeping the members in line and ensuring they turn up to vote in the right way resigning from doing that job.

Resigning the whip is something else, which I don't fully get the implications of, but means that you effectively become an independent MP for a while I think because you say you won't follow the instructions from the party whips regarding voting. Not sure what "benefits" it is that they lose by doing so though. I think they also use it as a punishment for party MP's that have done something wrong, in a slap on the wrists kind of level, and the party would withdraw the whip from them.

These confusing phrasings for a system that really should be retired already...resigning the whip or the whip resigning...in any case George Young, the person we are discussing, was in the Whips office in the House of Lords.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If they are all as against no deal as they say, the blink will come in the 11th hour and WA pass the house. Maybe that’s Boris actual plan

I am still unclear how getting the current WA, which is just about what he will get, through is a win for Johnson. He already said that it will not suffice, he told the ERG this and he told Tory members this. If he goes back against what he told these two groups he is going to have a very tough time getting any of his plans through for the rest of his leadership.

The ERG has already said the WA is dead, even without the backstop. Labour will not vote for it as there is a better deal than the crappy one negotiated by May (no, not a jobs first Brexit but a Norway style relationship) so they will not back it. So there is very little chance he gets it through even with changes.

Zubeneschamali

BarryD2 wrote: »

Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

We (and the EU) have already done what we can - things are in the UK's hands now. They have indeed made threats, but any movement from Ireland towards giving in to the hostage takers demands would only make things worse.

prawnsambo

BarryD2 wrote: »

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

I think you have to expand on this fleecing. Because we already have supply lines from continental Europe in place. Currently we are still buying from the UK, but we'd be mad not to at the moment because of the weakness of sterling.

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

Rights of foreign citizens in EU member states are actually not an EU competence. Each MS has their own rules. Something that the leave campaign in the UK pretended otherwise. Having said that, I think most EU MS have already taken the appropriate steps.

And just after I posted the above, along comes a tweet.

Well I think free movement was always going to end as will free movement for UK citizens in the EU, but we were talking about about EU citizens already resident in the UK and their rights.

Zubeneschamali

Enzokk wrote: »

I am still unclear how getting the current WA, which is just about what he will get, through is a win for Johnson. He already said that it will not suffice, he told the ERG this and he told Tory members this.

If he got the deal through, he would be The Man Who Delivered Brexit, a big win.

If he tap-dances up to the last minute, out maneuvers the opposition and presents them with No Deal or the WA, last chance, no more extensions, maybe Parliament would go for it.

All the people saying it is dead and so on would be history, forgotten just like the fact that Johnson voted for the WA himself in March.

Bit cynical

Shelga wrote: »

Crazy thought: is a no-deal Brexit kind of good, in some ways?

UK will be forced to agree to EU conditions sooner or later, so won’t a no-deal at least speed things up in that regard?

I think from the UK side there are some advantages to no deal. One of the main bits of leverage the EU has is fear in the UK of falling over the cliff edge in the event of no deal. However the transition period still has a cliff edge at the end of it for most of the UK if they don't agree to whatever trade deal the EU have in mind for them. So the uncertainty continues while the transition period is in effect and the EU still hold all the cards.

swampgas

The EU must also consider the precedents that are being set for a departing member state here. It would be unwise to assume that the UK is a one-off, given enough time and unforeseen events, another country may also decide to invoke article 50. Indulging the UK with endless extensions might not be the best strategy, better for any future departing country to know that they can't mess about getting endless extensions. Likewise, caving to the UK in any way on fundamental principles must be out of the question.

Also, getting the UK out now, even with no deal, gets their MEPs out of the EU and makes the UK a 3rd country. I'd imagine there are a lot of EU countries who would be glad to pull the plug so the Brexiteer MEPs get shown the door. It might seem petty but people are people at the end of the day and Team UK have behaved dreadfully.

Kermit.de.frog

BarryD2 wrote: »

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

If this was 1960 i'd agree.

But it's not.

12% of our trade is with the UK today, not 90%.

You seem to be suggesting we allow ourselves to be pushed around. I'm perfectly comfortable not to be pushed around by that cabal in Westminster thank you very much.

Each to their own.

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well I think free movement was always going to end as will free movement for UK citizens in the EU, but we were talking about about EU citizens already resident in the UK and their rights.

I know. But ending free movement before EU citizens in the UK get settled status (and as I posted before, a lot are getting 'pre-settled' status) is quite possibly going to affect them.

And remember that if the WA is agreed, FoM should continue through the transition period. Seems a bit previous to be doing this now.

10000maniacs

BarryD2 wrote: »

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

So Fine Gael should sacrifice the Nationalists in Norther Ireland on the alter of Boris Johnsons Brexit? Seriously?
Britain did this to us. Ireland has no culpability in what is to come in the next 2 months. It's typical of what Britain were doing to us in the 19th and most of the 20th century.
We are in a stronger and better place now. Let them do their worst.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not our problem until they actually do something, and the worst that can happen is No Deal, which happens anyhow on Oct 31 if the EU does not extend.

There is a significant downside to the EU proposing an extension: the likely disruption to every session of the European Parliament by Farage and his cronies. We had a taste of this just after the elections, when they took their seats, but since then, the parliament has been in recess. If Johnson looks for and gets an extension, we can be damn sure that the Brexit Party will use the EP as a platform to demonstrate their displeasure at every possible session. We do not need the sickness that has infected Westminster politics spreading across the Channel onto the Continent.