Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

swampgas

BarryD2 wrote: »

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

BarryD2, any chance you're worried about you personally taking a big financial hit? If so, fair enough that you're concerned, but it would be a huge mistake (IMO) to forget what the long term impact on everyone's situation will be, if we're short-sighted enough to strike a deal that damages the fundamentals of the EU, and Ireland, in the long run.

prawnsambo

10000maniacs wrote: »

So Fine Gael should sacrifice the Nationalists in Norther Ireland on the alter of Boris Johnsons Brexit? Seriously?
Britain did this to us. Ireland has no culpability in what is to come in the next 2 months. It's typical of what Britain were doing to us in the 19th and most of the 20th century.
We are in a stronger and better place now. Let them do their worst.

A propos of your post and mine above, I just looked up the sailing schedules from Zeebrugge and Rotterdam (the new routes that will replace the landbridge as well as Amsterdam) and there are two a week RoRo from Zeebrugge and three RoRo and one LoLo a week from Rotterdam. These are on the new super ferries that ClDN operate. That's 40Km of RoRo traffic a week.

Shelga

Considering there are no other options left, I’m willing to move to the next stage, yes. We will face whatever happens as a country that is united behind this issue, unlike the UK.

I’ll pay a bit more for food for a few months (yes, I’m fully aware there are other, serious consequences too) in order to have the repulsive no-deal Brexiters face the devastating domestic consequences of what they have done. Enough is enough. We are all so, so sick of it at this stage.

10000maniacs

prawnsambo wrote: »

A propos of your post and mine above, I just looked up the sailing schedules from Zeebrugge and Rotterdam (the new routes that will replace the landbridge as well as Amsterdam) and there are two a week RoRo from Zeebrugge and three RoRo and one LoLo a week from Rotterdam. These are on the new super ferries that ClDN operate. That's 40Km of RoRo traffic a week.

Won't be too bad. We survived during the Emergency on Irish produce. And I don't mind paying a little more for the Euro versions of what used to come from the UK.

fash

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

The WA won't pass as is. But a NI restricted Backstop could likely pass at the last minute.
Even if the DUP object and call out their C&S agreement, Boris will have delivered Brexit and can safely go to a GE.
There will be nothing the remainders can do at that point but just accept circumstances.

Boris can simply spin the DUP his line about alternatives to the Backstop but everyone else will just get on with it.

The problem is that the UK's language is too aggressive on this - they repeatedly say that even a NI only backstop is "against UK sovereignty, undemocratic, not supported by majority of both communities in NI (which in the context of brexit shows chutzpah)" etc.
I would be expecting a last minute and unreasonable "take it or leave it" offer from Johnson followed by a no deal and blaming the EU for not taking it/the no deal.

The question is how to respond to an unreasonable offer while reducing scope for blame.
One part is to delay the response past 31 October "interesting- but some improvement and lots of work needed- you'll need to delay"
Or alternatively, counter offer (unreasonably or reasonably) and make it obvious negotiations are on going - e.g. I was thinking that "backstop with "time limit" at the end of which there is a decision by cross community vote in NI"

Flex

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No Deal will cost us in the EU a lot of money. If Boris is bluffing, or the HoC takes back control, and the result is a request for an A50 extension, the EU should offer a 2 year fixed extension, take it or leave it.

2 years more without disruption for the EU, 2 years more to squeeze business and investment out of the UK, 2 years more for Remain to overturn the referendum.

What's the downside? Uncertainty, people will cry, but uncertainty about whether No Deal will cost us money in 2 years is better then the certainty that it will cost us that money starting at Halloween.

I disagree, at the moment the UK is split and divided as its government is trying to run an offensive flailing and swinging blindly without a strategy charging towards windmills. 2 years gives the UK government more time to prepare and organise, more time to disrupt the EU and more time to run their propaganda. We are in a stronger position than the UK is now for no deal so I would like to see it now rather than in 2 years when the landscape and positions have changed again.

Beyond that, the UK government is acting in absolute bad faith and any further talk or engagement with them is an absolute waste of time, Brexit has also completely polluted politics in the UK and is something they need to go through and get past

Silent Running

fash wrote: »

The problem is that the UK's language is too aggressive on this - they repeatedly say that even a NI only backstop is "against UK sovereignty, undemocratic, not supported by majority of both communities in NI (which in the context of brexit shows chutzpah)" etc.
I would be expecting a last minute and unreasonable "take it or leave it" offer from Johnson followed by a no deal and blaming the EU for not taking it/the no deal.

The question is how to respond to an unreasonable offer while reducing scope for blame.
One part is to delay the response past 31 October "interesting- but some improvement and lots of work needed- you'll need to delay"
Or alternatively, counter offer (unreasonably or reasonably) and make it obvious negotiations are on going - e.g. I was thinking that "backstop with "time limit" at the end of which there is a decision by cross community vote in NI"

Why should the EU care who the UK blames. The UK has lost credibility worldwide. They have shown themselves to be untrustworthy loonies, while the EU have been relatively patient and accommodating.

is_that_so

BarryD2 wrote: »

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

Supply chains are far more at risk from Trump. What has been highlighted is that some areas will be a lot harder hit, the economy as a whole much less so. NI, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, could be in huge trouble.

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

I know. But ending free movement before EU citizens in the UK get settled status (and as I posted before, a lot are getting 'pre-settled' status) is quite possibly going to affect them.

And remember that if the WA is agreed, FoM should continue through the transition period. Seems a bit previous to be doing this now.

I think one of the fears was that an EU worker leaving the UK for holidays might have trouble getting back in. However, although technically FoM is ending in the event of no deal, I don't think those workers will have a problem re-entering the country. It will still be easy for EU citizens to enter the UK even in the event of no deal. It is just that new entrants won't have the automatic right to work and settle.

is_that_so

Silent Running wrote: »

Why should the EU care who the UK blames. The UK has lost credibility worldwide. They have shown themselves to be untrustworthy loonies, while the EU have been relatively patient and accommodating.

Boris also finds somebody to blame, it's his MO, and he needs a rallying call in the inevitable GE. Whether people will swallow it is quite another thing.

Calina

BarryD2 wrote: »

Possibly but are you prepared as an Irish citizen and consumer to be fleeced in the process? People here simply don't realise how closely our supply chains, economy and cost of living is related to what happens in the coming weeks. And if some do, they pretend it's a cost worth bearing to solve a UI. There's a lot of heads firmly stuck in the sand as regards the consequences to ordinary people here. Open your eyes, we're the collateral damage.

I think you are insulting the intelligence of Irish people here.

1) we know we are collateral damage. It is actually covered in media such that my parents who are in their 80s and have no truck with online duscussion boards are aware.

2) our Brexit planning has been underway since 2015.

3) we have been expanding shipping options a lot since then. Our contingency planning for shipping involved actual ships which are actually operating now. We didn't have to pay damages to anyone for making a haimse of it.

4) We are broadly annoyed with the UK for foisting this on us and we have not let them push us around any further than the absolute minimum imposed by geography.

5) Our media is discussing things like med and food shortages practically rather than emotionally.

6) We have put a lot of business supports in place both financial and informational.

7) we already have lost companies over the sterling devaluation.

Seriously, Ireland is a hell of a lot more reality tied than the UK.

LuckyLloyd

BarryD2, have you appraised yourself of the actual figures regarding UK / Irish trade?

I’ll post them again for you here:

https://www.cso.ie/en/interactivezone/visualisationtools/brexitindicators/

We are *NOT* closely aligned to the UK. We have been aggressively decoupling ourself from them for nearly a half decade, after a 40 year period of ever decreasing primacy of the UK for our economy.

You are either unaware of these figures (despite me posting them to you before), cannot understand them or are wilfully misrepresenting the importance of the UK to our economy.

fash

Silent Running wrote: »

Why should the EU care who the UK blames. The UK has lost credibility worldwide. They have shown themselves to be untrustworthy loonies, while the EU have been relatively patient and accommodating.

The more Boris is able to portray his position as reasonable and responsible and the EU as the evil no dealers, the better he is able to explain no deal consequences as the fault of the "evil intransigent and unreasonable EU." This strengthens his (and brexiters) position in any subsequent election. This is not in our interest.

funkey_monkey

I wonder what would happen if some MP brought forward a bill now to introduce Tax Avoidance laws which would mirror the EU directive?
That might be an interesting grenade to lob into the Commons.

ancapailldorcha

fash wrote: »

The more Boris is able to portray his position as reasonable and responsible and the EU as the evil no dealers, the better he is able to explain no deal consequences as the fault of the "evil intransigent and unreasonable EU." This strengthens his (and brexiters) position in any subsequent election. This is not in our interest.

I doubt it makes much difference to be honest. I'm getting the impression from living here for most of the past decade that virtually everyone has chosen a side. Johnson will only change minds when the inevitable betrayal comes.

Remember, there is no coherent leave base. Various people voted to leave for various reasons some of which are mutually exclusive. Disappointment is inevitable and so are the concomitant betrayal and treachery narratives.

SeaBreezes

Calina wrote: »

I think you are insulting the intelligence of Irish people here.

1) we know we are collateral damage. It is actually covered in media such that my parents who are in their 80s and have no truck with online duscussion boards are aware.

2) our Brexit planning has been underway since 2015.

3) we have been expanding shipping options a lot since then. Our contingency planning for shipping involved actual ships which are actually operating now. We didn't have to pay damages to anyone for making a haimse of it.

4) We are broadly annoyed with the UK for foisting this on us and we have not let them push us around any further than the absolute minimum imposed by geography.

5) Our media is discussing things like med and food shortages practically rather than emotionally.

6) We have put a lot of business supports in place both financial and informational.

7) we already have lost companies over the sterling devaluation.

Seriously, Ireland is a hell of a lot more reality tied than the UK.

Thanks for the summation! Also I maybe way off base here but isn't there a lot of opportunity here for Ireland also? Or am I being naive?

Shelga

Literally the only thing that these hardcore Brexiters who ring LBC day after day after day care about is not being a member of the EU anymore. It's like nothing exists after October 31st.

Yes, I am really, really looking forward to them having to face up to reality. My only fear is that they will continue to blame the EU for the position they find themselves in, but I think those cries will get weaker and weaker as time goes on. The longer they're out of the EU, the less able they will be to blame it for every miserable aspect of their lives that they're unhappy with. And they're about to get a lot unhappier.

I have friends in the UK. I lived there myself. All of this is horrible. But it's inevitable at this point. Yes, I'm going to indulge in schadenfreude where I can, while limiting whatever damage possible to Ireland.

CelticRambler

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Thanks for the summation! Also I maybe way off base here but isn't there a lot of opportunity here for Ireland also? Or am I being naive?

Not naïve at all. While Westminster squabbles over whose navel has the most fluff, Ireland has been fighting (in a gentlemanly way) with every other EU country for a share of the UK's economic carcass. Unfortunately for Ireland, the shortsightedness of the FF government at the time of the crash, coupled with a misguided approach to Ireland's housing needs by subsequent FG governments means that the country is quite badly handicapped when trying to attract business that needs people who need accommodation.

But if its any consolation, there was an article in the French press last week bemoaning the opportunities lost to France when several symbolically big UK institutions chose Amsterdam over Paris. Ireland, like every other EU country, has taken advantage of Brexit to attract business and investment. Mainly because we started acting on it in 2015, while the Brits are still playing silly buggers with each other in 2019.

J Mysterio

Im in Sicily at the moment and spotted an Italexit poster, which I had a good laugh at.



The only mention of Brexit I have seen other than a sign at Immigration in the airport pointing to an informational website.

I have seen a bit of anti Salvini grafiti: 'Salvini parasita'.

CelticRambler

fash wrote: »

The more Boris is able to portray his position as reasonable and responsible and the EU as the evil no dealers, the better he is able to explain no deal consequences as the fault of the "evil intransigent and unreasonable EU." This strengthens his (and brexiters) position in any subsequent election. This is not in our interest.

It doesn't/won't make a blind bit of different to us. Assuming a crash-out Brexit, the UK will be economically isolated - having no deals with anyone - for a greater or lesser period of time. Other than people who insist on consuming British newsfeeds, no-one in the EU-27 will care who's saying what to whom about them. The EU will conduct future trade negotiations in the same way that it has done with so many other states and blocs - in a quiet but determined way, over several months or years.

Contrary to the belief of a certain freshly-registered contributor to this thread, amongst others, the next disruptive event to take place in Europe will be the break-up of the UK, resulting in an independent Scotland and a re-united Ireland. Scotland will apply for, and in due course be granted, membership of the EU, thereby validating its reasonableness. What happens with England & Wales is very difficult to predict, but some kind of upheaval and re-balancing of power between the two constituent countries is inevitable.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Don't repost deleted posts please.

Enter name here

CelticRambler wrote: »

It doesn't/won't make a blind bit of different to us. Assuming a crash-out Brexit, the UK will be economically isolated - having no deals with anyone - for a greater or lesser period of time. Other than people who insist on consuming British newsfeeds, no-one in the EU-27 will care who's saying what to whom about them. The EU will conduct future trade negotiations in the same way that it has done with so many other states and blocs - in a quiet but determined way, over several months or years.

Contrary to the belief of a certain freshly-registered contributor to this thread, amongst others, the next disruptive event to take place in Europe will be the break-up of the UK, resulting in an independent Scotland and a re-united Ireland. Scotland will apply for, and in due course be granted, membership of the EU, thereby validating its reasonableness. What happens with England & Wales is very difficult to predict, but some kind of upheaval and re-balancing of power between the two constituent countries is inevitable.

Incorrect the next disruptive event in Europe will be the collapse of the EU and a lot sooner than most Irish realise.

BluePlanet

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Thanks for the summation! Also I maybe way off base here but isn't there a lot of opportunity here for Ireland also? Or am I being naive?

I would expect that many British branded products found in supermarket shelves throughout the EU might be replaced by Irish ones.

Seth Brundle

Enter name here wrote: »

Incorrect the next disruptive event in Europe will be the collapse of the EU and a lot sooner than most Irish realise.

Based on what evidence?

lawred2

10000maniacs wrote: »

So Fine Gael should sacrifice the Nationalists in Norther Ireland on the alter of Boris Johnsons Brexit? Seriously?
Britain did this to us. Ireland has no culpability in what is to come in the next 2 months. It's typical of what Britain were doing to us in the 19th and most of the 20th century.
We are in a stronger and better place now. Let them do their worst.

Still a few house paddies knocking about though.. to plead their case

lawred2

Calina wrote: »

I think you are insulting the intelligence of Irish people here.

1) we know we are collateral damage. It is actually covered in media such that my parents who are in their 80s and have no truck with online duscussion boards are aware.

2) our Brexit planning has been underway since 2015.

3) we have been expanding shipping options a lot since then. Our contingency planning for shipping involved actual ships which are actually operating now. We didn't have to pay damages to anyone for making a haimse of it.

4) We are broadly annoyed with the UK for foisting this on us and we have not let them push us around any further than the absolute minimum imposed by geography.

5) Our media is discussing things like med and food shortages practically rather than emotionally.

6) We have put a lot of business supports in place both financial and informational.

7) we already have lost companies over the sterling devaluation.

Seriously, Ireland is a hell of a lot more reality tied than the UK.

Would agree 100% were it not for point five! Have you seen some of the shoite printed by the Indo?

Seth Brundle

Mod: insulting post deleted. I may yet follow up with a card later when I'm off the touch site

Calina

lawred2 wrote: »

Would agree 100% were it not for point five! Have you seen some of the shoite printed by the Indo?

Yep. But it on its own does not constitute all Irish media. On balance we are doing way better than the UK here.

woohoo!!!

I think it will take quite a while for something normal, politically, to emerge from the Brexit wreckage. And until then, nothing the Brits say or sign can be trusted. They're looking at a lost decade and massive political upheaval. Scotland and Northern Ireland would be wise to get out sooner than later.

Sam Russell

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I think it will take quite a while for something normal, politically, to emerge from the Brexit wreckage. And until then, nothing the Brits say or sign can be trusted. They're looking at a lost decade and massive political upheaval. Scotland and Northern Ireland would be wise to get out sooner than later.

I think in the future, in Britain, the only time you will see the term 'UNITED' will be attached to a football club.