Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Pedro K

listermint wrote: »

Paddy




Power....


Have , not the poster.

Unless I'm missing something, and it's quite possible I am, Paddy Power provide odds, not percentages. When there's a 50/50 chance of something happening, the odds are typically 5/6 both ways. I'm confused as to how the poster has arrived at the percentages given, unless PP have stated those percentages somewhere...

reslfj

Bit cynical wrote: »

However I think the poster was talking about a post no deal period.

At this point if the EU are concerned about citizens rights in the UK, they are free to do a deal on this or any other issue as they wish.

I commented to "I don't think there's any problem with the EU in a no deal scenario"

You don't seem to understand that the EU27 has absolute all the 'cards' after a 'No Deal' Brexit. The UK will shortly after Brexit urgently need a deal in very many areas.

The EU27 simply will not even begin any negotiations before all the core WA text has been ratified by the UK. The EU27 will likely demand additional demanding text to be included.

This will not involve any negotiation but simply being an EU27 demand, the UK must ratify or stay in 'dire straits' - sinking deeper and deeper.

The EU27 is diplomatic but not nice nor 'sweet' when it believes it deals with non trustworthy counterpart. We in the EU27 owe the UK absolutely not any deal. You - the UK - ask nicely, ratify and we just might negotiate.

Lars

Note.
The EU27 is so much larger, has a hugely larger economy and has its fantastic SM and 60+ world class FTAs + other international deals. The EU27 will remain very strong - give or take a world recession.

theguzman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looking at Newsnight, a Scottish Independence referendum is beginning to hove back into view.
If the Cons and Labour implode there London won't be able to resist one.

The Scottish Independence referendum would have carried in 2014 if English people living in Scotland were prevented from voting, imo they should have no say and as a nation of historical colonisers they will always vote for the status quo. The Scottish people voted by majority in 2014 for Independence but the half million or so English in Scotland voted to preserve the Union.

Bit cynical

irishproduce wrote: »

Paddy power think there's a 65% chance the UK leaves this year and a 42% chance that they don't.
Make of that what you will.

Currently odds are 8/15 leave and 11/8 not leave in 2019.


https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit


Ignoring the profit margin for PP, this translates to 62% leave and 38%.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

Currently odds are 8/15 leave and 11/8 not leave in 2019.


https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit


Ignoring the profit margin for PP, this translates to 38% leave and 62% not leave so at the moment closer to the reverse of your figures.

You can get even money on a crash out.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You can get even money on a crash out.

Sitting happily with my no deal brexit in 2019 at 13/5 which they dont seem to be offerring odds on anymore

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

Sitting happily with my no deal brexit in 2019 at 13/5 which they dont seem to be offerring odds on anymore

You can get odds on No Deal still. Best you'll get is 11/8 now.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

You can get even money on a crash out.

They have No (Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked) 4/6

Uk leaves without a deal 11/10.

This translates to 57% and 43%.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1167201796567134208

I think he really really really believes this will happen, which makes it all the more scarier.

New Deal has to fall into the category of unicorns at this stage.

Professor Moriarty

Bit cynical wrote: »

They have No (Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 revoked) 4/6


Uk leaves without a deal 11/10.


This translates to 43% and 57%.



This means that Paddy power think leaving without a deal is more likely than leaving under whatever circumstances in 2019!


Money to be made there I think.

I'm not sure I follow. 4/6 is more likely to happen than 11/10.

ancapailldorcha

Posts with insults deleted.

Capt'n Midnight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looking at Newsnight, a Scottish Independence referendum is beginning to hove back into view.
If the Cons and Labour implode there London won't be able to resist one.

Count taking place in Shetland by-election
The result is expected to be announced at 2.30am on Friday morning.

Be interesting to see how the SNP do in a safe Lib Dem seat. Will probably say more about Scottish Independence than about Brexit.

Water John

Weak Lib Dem candidate, so hard to read any results for outcome.

Bit cynical

reslfj wrote: »

I commented to "I don't think there's any problem with the EU in a no deal scenario"

You don't seem to understand that the EU27 has absolute all the 'cards' after a 'No Deal' Brexit. The UK will shortly after Brexit urgently need a deal in very many areas.

The EU27 simply will not even begin any negotiations before all the core WA text has been ratified by the UK. The EU27 will likely demand additional demanding text to be included.

This will not involve any negotiation but simply being an EU27 demand, the UK must ratify or stay in 'dire straits' - sinking deeper and deeper.

The EU27 is diplomatic but not nice nor 'sweet' when it believes it deals with non trustworthy counterpart. We in the EU27 owe the UK absolutely not any deal. You - the UK - ask nicely, ratify and we just might negotiate.

Lars

Note.
The EU27 is so much larger, has a hugely larger economy and has its fantastic SM and 60+ world class FTAs + other international deals. The EU27 will remain very strong - give or take a world recession.

I would agree with you that the EU is in a much stronger negotiating position than the UK. I would argue that it is slightly less strong after a no deal than in the lead up to the 31st October.

However the question was in the event of no deal and the EU being worried about EU citizens rights in the UK, is there anything standing in the way of the EU doing a deal on this one issue?

The answer is that there is not. The EU could if they wanted do such a deal and the UK probably would be accommodating given that they want to keep existing EU citizens anyway.

I agree that the EU probably would not initiate such a deal. Given their superior negotiating position, it is possible to lump EU citizens rights in with other things they want. EU citizens rights is not a big enough issue on its own from the EU perspective.

Imreoir2

Bit cynical wrote: »

I agree that the EU probably would not initiate such a deal. Given their superior negotiating position, it is possible to lump EU citizens rights in with other things they want. EU citizens rights is not a big enough issue on its own from the EU perspective.

The EU has made clear that there will be no-deals in a no-deal scenario. It will be up to each side to implement their own unilateral measures to protect themselves and their interests. While the lack of a deal on cirtizens rights is quite regretable, it is not seen as a fundemental threat to the human rights of EU citizens in the UK. The UK is still a somewhat respected western democracy and is unlikely to round up EU citizens and put them into camps.

Water John

Well Johnson has stepped up the talks with the EU. It's really urgent to get a deal before Oct 31st, so they'll now meet, twice a week!!!

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure I follow. 4/6 is more likely to happen than 11/10.

Yes you are right. My mistake.

Also Irishproduce was correct with his percentages. Roughly 60 percent leave.

WhiteMan32

With the House of Commons returning from recess on Tuesday next (3rd Sept), anyone know if Johnson will be facing PMQs on the following day? While I lack confidence in Corbyn striking any knockout punch at the despatch box, Theresa May's successor urgently needs to be strongly tackled by opposition MPs.

OOORRRDDEERR............

Imreoir2

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

With the House of Commons returning from recess on Tuesday next (3rd Sept), anyone know if Johnson will be facing PMQs on the following day? While I lack confidence in Corbyn striking any knockout punch at the despatch box, Theresa May's successor urgently needs to be strongly tackled by opposition MPs.

OOORRRDDEERR............

He needs to be tackeled even moreso by hs own rebel backbenchers. It seems quite possible that he can't actually command a majority in the house.

Water John

PMQ won't be the point of success/failure. Introduction and passing legislation in the short time frame is key. The biggest stumbling block may possibly be the House of Lords. Amendments and delay tactics might mean it would run out of time before poroging, as the legislation would then fall. Some are already preparing to keep it open over the weekend to ensure its passed.

Then we introduced the filibuster to Parliament, re; Joseph Biggar.

declanflynn

Bit cynical wrote: »

irishproduce wrote: »

Paddy power think there's a 65% chance the UK leaves this year and a 42% chance that they don't.
Make of that what you will.

Currently odds are 8/15 leave and 11/8 not leave in 2019.


https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-brexit


Ignoring the profit margin for PP, this translates to 62% leave and 38%.

I think you have that wrong

reslfj

Bit cynical wrote: »

... is there anything standing in the way of the EU doing a deal on this one issue?

The answer is that there is not. The EU could if they wanted do such a deal and the UK probably would be accommodating given that they want to keep existing EU citizens anyway.

How often must we write this?: The EU27 will not negotiate anything - not anything - now covered in treaties ceasing with A50 on Oct 31.

The EU27 will - apart from the planned unilateral EU27 actions - not do any deals or mini-deals with the UK before the core of the WA text is ratified.

This includes

1. EU+UK citizens rights when not living in home country
2. The £39bn or whatever the amount is on Brexit day
3. The backstop - as in the WA or possible the Irish Sea version.
4. Other smaller things from the WA (e.g. Geographical Indications)

Post Brexit the EU27 do not ask - the EU27 commands the UK to ratify the text it wants.

"Do or die" - to quote the UK PM. And don't for even a minute believe that we - the EU27 citizens - will be afraid of watching the UK "die", if its stubborn stupidity prevails.

Lars

Bit cynical

reslfj wrote: »

How often must we write this?: The EU27 will not negotiate anything - not anything - now covered in treaties ceasing with A50 on Oct 31.

Until you understand the point being made. It is the choice of the EU to insist on this. It is not forced on them. If a particular issue is sufficiently important to them they may if they choose do a deal specific to that. If you are arguing that they won't change, that is fine, but it is not the question I am addressing.

reslfj

Bit cynical wrote: »

Until you understand the point being made. It is the choice of the EU to insist on this. It is not forced on them. If a particular issue is sufficiently important to them they may if they choose do a deal specific to that. If you are arguing that they won't change, that is fine, but it is not the question I am addressing.

The EU27 will not change the WA - 'No Deal' is not an acceptable option for the EU27 on the point I listed. If this is not what the UK will agree to - the EU27 will simply 'kill' the UK's economy as fast and for the UK as expensively as possible. The EU27 will then just wait for a 'begging UK' in 'its Canossa castle' (these days relocated to Brussels)

We have to get all the core WA points ratified by the UK and we will use all available means to speed up this action.

Little England will post Brexit be a rule-taker, so please start taking rules

Lars

PS! It will only be more difficult for the UK in the following negotiating phases. You are on the "sunny uplands" - except there will be absolutely no sun for the UK.

kowloon

BBC wrote:

Boris Johnson has promised a renewed effort to secure a deal with the EU before the Brexit deadline.

The UK's Brexit negotiators will now meet their EU counterparts twice a week next month, in the run up to a crucial summit on October 17-18.

If the EU won't reopen negotiations, what exactly happens at these meetings?

Rjd2

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1167201796567134208

I think he really really really believes this will happen, which makes it all the more scarier.

New Deal has to fall into the category of unicorns at this stage.

I'd not take Tom seriously. He is one of the Guido Fawkes reporters who are very much in the pocket of Boris as the leadership election proved.

Pretty much would say the same about the Novara media, Owen Jones when it comes to Corbyn also.

These are not serious journos.

Bit cynical

kowloon wrote: »

My favourite was the 'dead pets have to be pressure cooked before burial' one.

Another one was "EU to employ sniffers to make sure manure smells the same". One of Boris's I think.

Peregrinus

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

Patser

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

It is scary. We need to talk on how to do a deal on these things, in case of no deal. Does he not see the contradiction - we need a deal for no deal, but then it's not no deal as you have a deal.....


Unless we're back to cherrypicking what they want to keep, and what they don't want.

Thargor

Water John wrote: »

Well Johnson has stepped up the talks with the EU. It's really urgent to get a deal before Oct 31st, so they'll now meet, twice a week!!!

I thought he wasn't going to meet any EU members until they got rid of the undemocratic backstop?