Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

I suppose this is a direct consequence of their arrogant and foolhardy belief that the EU needed them more than they need the EU and that the EU would fold at any minute... Maybe there is a creeping realisation that the foundations for their bravado were not quite so solid!

Tacitus Kilgore

Patser wrote: »

It is scary. We need to talk on how to do a deal on these things, in case of no deal. Does he not see the contradiction - we need a deal for no deal, but then it's not no deal as you have a deal.....


Unless we're back to cherrypicking what they want to keep, and what they don't want.

Like an awful lot of the British public, he seems to think that no deal is "no to May's deal - but obviously there will be loads of mini deals to keep us going ok because we are so importan"

The rest of the world/EU however knows exactly what it means.

Peregrinus

lawred2 wrote: »

I suppose this is a direct consequence of their arrogant and foolhardy belief that the EU needed them more than they need the EU and that the EU would fold at any minute... Maybe there is a creeping realisation that the foundations for their bravado were not quite so solid!

It's worse that that. Once May decided, in November 2016, that Brexit meant leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market, the motor industry's business model was broken. Even if there's a withdrawal agreement, followed seamlessly by a free trade agreement, with the UK out of the CU and the SM the frictionless invisible borders that the motor industry depends on will no longer exist. Thus, an alternative business model for the motor industry needed to be developed before that decision was made.

It simply beggars belief that, even at this stage, Barclay could be unaware of this. It's a graphic illustration of the staggering degree of ignorance on which support for Brexit depends.

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's worse that that. Once May decided, in November 2016, that Brexit meant leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market, the motor industry's business model was broken. Even if there's a withdrawal agreement, followed seamlessly by a free trade agreement, with the UK out of the CU and the SM the frictionless invisible borders that the motor industry depends on will no longer exist. Thus, an alternative business model for the motor industry needed to be developed before that decision was made.

It simply beggars belief that, even at this stage, Barclay could be unaware of this. It's a graphic illustration of the staggering degree of ignorance on which support for Brexit depends.

Yeah but I'm sure these lads still believed that they could enjoy all the benefits of the CU and SM with none of the costs or responsibilities... Because... Well simply because they are British.

Borderhopper

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mother of God!

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1166765868891725825
"We need to start talks now" about something they needed to work out three years ago, before deciding to vote for Brexit, even assuming leaving with a deal. "We need to start talks now" about how do so something that, in a no-deal Brexit, absolutely cannot be done.

Words fail me. This guy is supposed to be the Brexit Secretary.

We really are at “walking into school, trying to get something written down for homework” time. Seriously, though, do we expect anything better? I mean, we don’t have a high opinion of a lot of our own TDs and MLAs, why should the UK have a higher calibre? What the UK have now in government is the dross, basically those who couldn’t hack it otherwise.

This may be a bit Machiavellian, but I’m beginning to come round to the notion that this is a coup. Maybe not a stereotypical army led one, but a coup nonetheless. Any regime that begins democratically, like the Nazis, always slowly ramps it up. “Well lads, oppression, death camps and total war for all!” doesn’t really cut it at the beginning, so they test the waters. They go so far, row back slightly if they have to, but eventually normalise the outrageous. This is seen in the US at the minute, but they have a written constitution to provide some protection. What does the UK have? Will we really give preferential treatment to the UK if this proves to be true?

Turning Europe against each other has been English then British foreign policy since the 16th century at least. I don’t think brexit was actually about trade deals, immigration etc. That’s fodder for the masses. The real reason for brexit was to turn states in the EU against each other, and a tangential benefit would’ve been forcing Ireland out of the EU and back into UKs sphere of influence. Probably not before the referendum, but probably after when the problems were identified and definitely now. This is why the EU must not, cannot bend. It cannot be seen to be giving into madness and threats, and cannot “betray” the smaller countries. More eyes in the world are watching than Britain’s.

CelticRambler

Bit cynical wrote: »

I would agree with you that the EU is in a much stronger negotiating position than the UK. I would argue that it is slightly less strong after a no deal than in the lead up to the 31st October.

However the question was in the event of no deal and the EU being worried about EU citizens rights in the UK, is there anything standing in the way of the EU doing a deal on this one issue?

The answer is that there is not. The EU could if they wanted do such a deal and the UK probably would be accommodating given that they want to keep existing EU citizens anyway.

You're forgetting that the EU has learnt its lesson - from Switzerland - that doing mini-deals is a recipe for an everlasting headache. Britain's strongest negotiating position was three and two years ago, when both parties were working on the Withdrawal Agreement's "must have" list. Unfortunately for the UK, the EU - and Ireland in particular - were two years ahead of them, and got the WA that best suited that phase of the divorce process.

As a concession to the UK, the EU offered a transition period, during which there would be scope for a degree of give-and-take not normally afforded to a negotiating partner. This would have been more in the UK's favour than the EU's. After the 31st October, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK will leave with <drum roll, please> no deals.

None.

Not a one.

Not "no change to the status quo" or "back to how things were in the 70s", but no deals on anything.

As related by other posters, many "ordinary joe" Brexiters still can't get their heads around this. By the time the UK feels the effect of having torn up every treaty, it will be a Third Country like any other in the eyes the EU, one with which they can do a deal - or not - when the time is right. It will not be a fair fight: the balance of power shifts entirely to the trading bloc with a population of 500 million and three of the worlds largest economies.

A Dub in Glasgo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Count taking place in Shetland by-election
The result is expected to be announced at 2.30am on Friday morning.

Be interesting to see how the SNP do in a safe Lib Dem seat. Will probably say more about Scottish Independence than about Brexit.

Lib Dems retain the seat but with a lower majority

Full result:

Beatrice Wishart (Scottish Lib Dems) 5,659 (47.86%, -19.52%)

Tom Wills (SNP) 3,822 (32.32%, +9.27%)

Ryan Thomson (Independent) 1,286 (10.88%)

Brydon Goodlad (Scottish Conservative) 425 (3.59%, -0.07%)

Debra Nicolson (Green) 189 (1.60%)

Johan Adamson (Scottish Labour) 152 (1.29%, -4.61%)

Michael Stout (Independent) 134 (1.13%)

Ian Scott (Independent) 66 (0.56%)

Stuart Martin (UKIP) 60 (0.51%)

Peter Tait (Independent) 31 (0.26%)

14.40% swing Lib Dem to SNP

Electorate 17,810 - Turnout 11,824 (66.39%, up by 4.31%)

PeadarCo

lawred2 wrote: »

Yeah but I'm sure these lads still believed that they could enjoy all the benefits of the CU and SM with none of the costs or responsibilities... Because... Well simply because they are British.

The thing is it sounds as if a lot of Brexiters honestly believed this or completely unestimated/ignored how interlinked and dependent the UK is on the EU. The more you hear it honestly sounds like a lot of the Brexit strategy has been as a result of Brexiters being detached/ignorant of reality. Whether its Goves idea that the UK held all the cards once they left, the complete ignorance around the Irish border and Irish politics in general especially in relation to the EU, the importance of the the Dover Calais route and plenty more. Perfect comedy and satire material. Unfortunately as the tweet shows many of them still do not understand the situation the UK is in.

CelticRambler

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is it sounds as if a lot of Brexiters honestly believed this or completely unestimated/ignored how interlinked and dependent the UK is on the EU. The more you hear it honestly sounds like a lot of the Brexit strategy has been as a result of Brexiters being detached/ignorant of reality.

Another example of this on Sky a few minutes ago. Grant Shapps, SoS for Transport, saying that there'll be no problems with the Irish border post Brexit, because everything works fine as it is, even though we already have different legal, political and economic systems.

Wot?

prunudo

CelticRambler wrote: »

Another example of this on Sky a few minutes ago. Grant Shapps, SoS for Transport, saying that there'll be no problems with the Irish border post Brexit, because everything works fine as it is, even though we already have different legal, political and economic systems.

Wot?

You'd wonder do they really believe this, are that gullible or power hungry to believe the press statements that Cummings gives them as fact. Either that or they are afraid if the electorate actually wakes up and finds the real implications of no deal and Brexit in general that the whole thing will be cancelled.


Also, following up on a previous posters remarks about the indo, I can't help bit feel lately that their articles are being written with a slant on hoping their readers put pressure on td's to back track on the backstop and wa.

'Absolute chaos for months': Shoppers here 'facing empty shelves within days of no-deal Brexit'

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/absolute-chaos-for-months-shoppers-here-facing-empty-shelves-within-days-of-nodeal-brexit-38450011.html

Kermit.de.frog

Fianna Fáil business spokesman Robert Troy said: "It's as obvious as a nose on our face that the Government needs to urgently step up our preparations for a no-deal Brexit. They can start by telling people exactly what their plan is."

Mr Troy said exporters had been "unable to get a straight answer" when they ask where the Border checks would be if no deal comes to pass.

The reason the government is not giving away it's no deal plans yet is so as to not give ammunition to Brexiters in London.

Fianna Fáil are saying it's in our national interest at this very moment to tell the public.

Is this Fianna Fáil being Fianna Fáil? Or do they have a point?

I also find it ironic the people who wrecked the country through gross incompetence and neglect feel we should listen to their strategic thinking at such a vulnerable time.

Enzokk

Negotiations will be ramping up, meetings schedules for twice a week with the EU for now.

Time to step up tempo of Brexit talks, says bullish Boris Johnson

I see a couple of problems with this, the EU has been put in a tough position by Johnson by framing no-deal as their choice and fault and that they are refusing to negotiate. This seems to have worked as there will be ongoing meetings with the UK to get the same deal. So that has worked well for the UK.

Firstly there is a case that will have a ruling this morning and we will see what the court finds. Government will fight this all the way to the Supreme Court though even if they lose this case.

Then we have the strategy to frustrate efforts in Parliament,

Ministers privately admit the battle to block anti-no-deal legislation in the Commons next week appears all but lost, but efforts to frustrate the rebels is focusing on the House of Lords.

Opposition peers expect Tory peers to attempt to filibuster the legislation, which will need to have passed through all its parliamentary stages and received royal assent before parliament is suspended or it will fall.

Johnson has already suffered one setback in the Lords as George Young quit the Tory frontbench in the upper house on Thursday in protest at the decision to suspend parliament.

In his resignation letter, Lord Young, who was a minister under Margaret Thatcher, said he was “very unhappy at the timing and length of the prorogation, and its motivation”. He said he was not part of any “remainer plot”.

So they expect to lose the battle in the House of Commons but will then try to block it in the House of Lords. That is where the resignation of the George Young makes it interesting as the battle will be fought there as well.

This then gets me to the second problem, firstly what "new" deal will be offered that Johnson will take to Parliament.

Cabinet ministers who have previously been outspoken in their opposition to prorogation, including Amber Rudd and Matt Hancock, have been kept onboard by the hope Johnson can strike a reworked Brexit deal. They believe the real prospect of a no-deal Brexit will strengthen his hand in the negotiations and then persuade sceptical Labour MPs to support a deal rather than risk crashing out on 31 October.

According to a diplomatic note of Frost’s meeting in Brussels, seen by the Guardian, Frost downplayed Johnson’s suspension of parliament, describing it as normal. He told his interlocutors that Johnson wanted a deal but was not afraid of no deal.

The UK government appears to be seeking to convince the EU that it can bounce parliament into accepting any rewritten deal. Frost told EU officials that it would be possible to ratify a Brexit deal in the second half of October and argued that a technical extension would not be necessary. This strategy matches Johnson’s pledge to leave the EU on 31 October “do or die”.

So they are hoping there will be a new deal and this deal will be enough to scare MPs from Labour to vote for it. I feel we have been here before, right?

Then the last problem, if the government will try to frustrate the legislation that will instruct him to request an extension, what hope do they have themselves to negotiate a new deal, sell it to MPs to vote for it and then legislate for it in the time before 31st October? This is fanciful and those MPs deluding themselves that the plan is there and will work in the timeframe needs to wake up.

Stop moaning ffs

So the Indo have decided to ramp it up to become Ireland’s answer to the Telegraph. This is really more about attacking FG which they have been doing all summer.

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167344169049886720?s=21

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167344686492782593?s=21

Enzokk

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason the government is not giving away it's no deal plans yet is so as to not give ammunition to Brexiters in London.

Fianna Fáil are saying it's in our national interest at this very moment to tell the public.

Is this Fianna Fáil being Fianna Fáil? Or do they have a point?

I also find it ironic the people who wrecked the country through gross incompetence and neglect feel we should listen to their strategic thinking at such a vulnerable time.

I think a little of both really. They support the path the government has taken but they are taking the easy shots as well.

Seth Brundle

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason the government is not giving away it's no deal plans yet is so as to not give ammunition to Brexiters in London.

Fianna Fáil are saying it's in our national interest at this very moment to tell the public.

Is this Fianna Fáil being Fianna Fáil? Or do they have a point?

I also find it ironic the people who wrecked the country through gross incompetence and neglect feel we should listen to their strategic thinking at such a vulnerable time.

If the Irish Govt or the EU confirmed what approach they will take in two months then it makes them appear to accept a no deal scenario.
It would also give Brexiteers the opportunity to say how both Ireland and the Eu are becoming hostile to the Uk and shutting them out, how we're turning our back on NI despite there being many Irish people there and how we agreed to the GFA and are now planning a border.
We cannot win by disclosing our plans now.
As for FF, well what would you expect from them but a dose of opportunism?

is_that_so

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is it sounds as if a lot of Brexiters honestly believed this or completely unestimated/ignored how interlinked and dependent the UK is on the EU. The more you hear it honestly sounds like a lot of the Brexit strategy has been as a result of Brexiters being detached/ignorant of reality. Whether its Goves idea that the UK held all the cards once they left, the complete ignorance around the Irish border and Irish politics in general especially in relation to the EU, the importance of the the Dover Calais route and plenty more. Perfect comedy and satire material. Unfortunately as the tweet shows many of them still do not understand the situation the UK is in.

This assumes they ever thought about it in the first place. From the original Cameron stroke of genius their obsession has been with getting out. That's fine but any other country doing the same including the likes of Greece would have had a plan to do so. The UK's plan has been little more than muttering "we are great" or "you need us more" as negotiating tactics, while utterly trashing their reputation as a parliamentary democracy.

farmchoice

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The reason the government is not giving away it's no deal plans yet is so as to not give ammunition to Brexiters in London.

Fianna Fáil are saying it's in our national interest at this very moment to tell the public.

Is this Fianna Fáil being Fianna Fáil? Or do they have a point?

I also find it ironic the people who wrecked the country through gross incompetence and neglect feel we should listen to their strategic thinking at such a vulnerable time.

to date FF have been very good on brexit and i honestly dont believe they are just electioneering with this one.
i think there is a strong argument for the government being more up front about no deal planning.
personally i would support the governments present strategy of saying as little as possible as it would only feed the British gutter press and cause our own media to engage in endless arguments over particular aspects of the planning without looking at it in totality.


none the less there is a strong argument that you are better being up front with the populace and trusting them to understand the reality of reality.

Panrich

I see that Johnson once again references the un-democratic backstop in his latest statement. I think in the interests of fairness and balance all people opposed to a crash out should preface every reference to ‘no deal Brexit’ with ’un-democratic’

Dymo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the Indo have decided to ramp it up to become Ireland’s answer to the Telegraph. This is really more about attacking FG which they have been doing all summer.

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167344169049886720?s=21

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167344686492782593?s=21

To be honest, I am interested in what their plans are myself it is nine weeks away and businesses still don't know how plan as they don't know what the government is planning, what measures they are going to implement.

Before I let the government do there own thing but now it's nine weeks away.

is_that_so

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the Indo have decided to ramp it up to become Ireland’s answer to the Telegraph. This is really more about attacking FG which they have been doing all summer.

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167344169049886720?s=21

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167344686492782593?s=21

And it's Robert Troy again, it's his thing to "hold them to account". Whatever else FG may get grief over, they've played all of this well as have the majority of Irish politicians.

lawred2

Dymo wrote: »

To be honest, I am interested in what their plans are myself it is nine weeks away and businesses still don't know how plan as they don't know what the government is planning, what measures they are going to implement.

Before I let the government do there own thing but now it's nine weeks away.

What is it you'd like to know?

Seth Brundle

Panrich wrote: »

I see that Johnson once again references the un-democratic backstop in his latest statement. I think in the interests of fairness and balance all people opposed to a crash out should preface every reference to ‘no deal Brexit’ with ’un-democratic’

I have to laugh at the approach.
The UK government disagree with the backstop as it is undemocratic apparently. However, they have no problem with shutting down the parliamentary institutions.

Peregrinus

Panrich wrote: »

I see that Johnson once again references the un-democratic backstop in his latest statement.

Jesus. You'd think that in the last 48 hours, with the way prorogation being received, they'd have had the wit to quietly bury that particular soundbite.

This "Dominic Cummings is a master of the dark arts" line is beginning to look a bit threadbare.

is_that_so

Dymo wrote: »

To be honest, I am interested in what their plans are myself it is nine weeks away and businesses still don't know how plan as they don't know what the government is planning, what measures they are going to implement.

Before I let the government do there own thing but now it's nine weeks away.

They have recruited extra staff for a number of border related areas. There is a Brexit budget waiting, which they should go for anyway. They've also got a fund available.
https://dbei.gov.ie/en/What-We-Do/Supports-for-SMEs/Access-to-Finance/Brexit-Loan-Scheme/

That said it's not all about them. Businesses should be planning for a no-deal Brexit and they are not getting themselves organised if this is to be believed.
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/half-of-smes-have-no-plan-for-fallout-from-brexit-38402233.html

prawnsambo

Dymo wrote: »

To be honest, I am interested in what their plans are myself it is nine weeks away and businesses still don't know how plan as they don't know what the government is planning, what measures they are going to implement.

Before I let the government do there own thing but now it's nine weeks away.

Well they've said they're not going to close the border. Which at face value, means that they will implement a border in the Irish Sea. That's the simplest and most effective method of dealing with the issue. But they can't say that in so many words because it plays into all kinds of narratives north of the border and across the Irish Sea. Much better to announce this on the eve of or morning after b-day 3. The UK will be in no position to argue the fact. There is no way in hell that the government would start checks on the border, the fallout would be horrendous.

Russman

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Like an awful lot of the British public, he seems to think that no deal is "no to May's deal - but obviously there will be loads of mini deals to keep us going ok because we are so importan"

The rest of the world/EU however knows exactly what it means.

This seems to be it alright, but I'm finding it really hard to get my head round the idea that they can really be that stupid/ignorant/self absorbed, call it what you will. I mean, every utterance from the Brexit cohort indicates they are, but I'm struggling to believe that they just don't get it - can this actually be the case ? Are they really operating on blind faith that the world will look after them just, well, because ?

Barclays tweet is basically almost saying to the EU "......ok lads, Brexit is one thing, but what do we do now to keep our factories going while we wait for the whole Brexit thing to resolve itself......."
Its staggering tbh, do they still not know what no-deal means ?

prawnsambo

Russman wrote: »

This seems to be it alright, but I'm finding it really hard to get my head round the idea that they can really be that stupid/ignorant/self absorbed, call it what you will. I mean, every utterance from the Brexit cohort indicates they are, but I'm struggling to believe that they just don't get it - can this actually be the case ? Are they really operating on blind faith that the world will look after them just, well, because ?

Barclays tweet is basically almost saying to the EU "......ok lads, Brexit is one thing, but what do we do now to keep our factories going while we wait for the whole Brexit thing to resolve itself......."
Its staggering tbh, do they still not know what no-deal means ?

If you think about it, nobody with a functioning cerebral cortex would take up a cabinet post at this time. But yet...

lawred2

Peregrinus wrote: »

Jesus. You'd think that in the last 48 hours, with the way prorogation being received, they'd have had the wit to quietly bury that particular soundbite.

This "Dominic Cummings is a master of the dark arts" line is beginning to look a bit threadbare.

I think he's simply realised that a lot of British society is gone the way of Northern Ireland.. so polarised and partisan as to be near sectarian... So as long what you're saying can be loosely adjudicated to be 'agin themmuns' - then it's all good.

Peregrinus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

If the Irish Govt or the EU confirmed what approach they will take in two months then it makes them appear to accept a no deal scenario.
It would also give Brexiteers the opportunity to say how both Ireland and the Eu are becoming hostile to the Uk and shutting them out, how we're turning our back on NI despite there being many Irish people there and how we agreed to the GFA and are now planning a border.
We cannot win by disclosing our plans now.
As for FF, well what would you expect from them but a dose of opportunism?

In fairness, I think FF have a bit of a point here.

My one criticism of the government is that they should have been more upfront about the consequences if the UK refuses to honour it's no-hard-border guarantee by committing to the backstop, or something equally effective.

Letting people think that we could still avoid a hard border in that scenario played into the Brexiters' hands by giving them a basis for arguing that the backstop wasn't necessary/had a sinister purpose. And it discouraged business and people in Ireland from considering the prospect of a hard border, and how it might affect them, and what plans they might make to mitigate damage in that situation.

I don't think that the Irish government talking about what would happen in a no-deal situation could ever have been spun into Ireland accepting a no-deal. You can turn every talking about what would happen in no-deal into a diatribe against no-deal and a restatement of the need for the UK not to force it on us.

farmchoice

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well they've said they're not going to close the border. Which at face value, means that they will implement a border in the Irish Sea. That's the simplest and most effective method of dealing with the issue. But they can't say that in so many words because it plays into all kinds of narratives north of the border and across the Irish Sea. Much better to announce this on the eve of or morning after b-day 3. The UK will be in no position to argue the fact. There is no way in hell that the government would start checks on the border, the fallout would be horrendous.

ya that will be it
plus on B day 1 the words media will be camped on the Irish border, nothing happens still there day 2, nothing happens again hurrah brexit is a success!! day 3 talk of trouble in kent, talk of a minor accident causing a slight traffic jam which has escalated into something more serious worlds media head there.
day 4 no more talk of irish border as things getting serious in kent. day 5 traffic backed up to Piccadilly circus, once again the brits have forgotten that Ireland exists as food and medicine shortages in the north (of england) start to emerge, media head there. day 6 a person dies and the family claim (probably wrongly) that it was due to a shortage of medicine,media jump on it.
day 7 talks re open with eu on accepting WA with changes to political declaration, end of day 7,all Done.


in reality my days may or may not become weeks but either way all done before Christmas (famous last words!!!)