Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Imreoir2

Christy42 wrote: »

Even without the threats he might not get it.

However doubt he will do anything close to that. Absolute massive uturn from him in recent days so he must be feeling the pressure.

No negotiation while the back stop is still there has turned into increased negotiations.

Its a tactic often used by populaists without a plan, adopt two contradictory lines, appear to be all things to all people and hope that the resultant mess can be turned to your advantage at some point.

briany

VinLieger wrote: »

But here's the thing what if they get legislation through and he refuses to go? He's already said he won't step down for a VONC so why would this be any different?

If Johnson were to openly defy an order of Parliament, what authority would he or his government have to subsequently give them?

InTheShadows

VinLieger wrote: »

Your still waiting for that bus ehh?

It's on the way

Imreoir2

InTheShadows wrote: »

When the EU screws us over it's going to be epic watching the pro EU media here spin it as a win.

What makes you think the EU will screw us over and what do you mean by screw us over? I can't see any evidence to suggest such an outcome is at all likely. Might it be that your anti-EU convictions are making you spout utter nonsence?

Tacitus Kilgore

InTheShadows wrote: »

When the EU screws us over it's going to be epic watching the pro EU media here spin it as a win.

Still waiting for it to happen 3 and a half years later, they sure are taking their time :pac:


No wait, there's only one "union" who wants to screw over Ireland, and it ain't the European one.

Little do they (you) realise (they (you) should by now) that their gun is pointed at their own head. The head it's entering is so full of hot air & gas that the bullet won't exit the other side, there will just be some splatter. We can live with splatter.

VinLieger

briany wrote: »

If Johnson were to openly defy an order of Parliament, what authority would he or his government have to subsequently give them?

Thats the thing im not sure of the legalities of the UK parliament for such a situation

Peregrinus

newport2 wrote: »

It would be interesting. What's to stop Johnson going to the EU and saying

"Hi, I'm here to ask for an extension I don't want. Going to cause as much disruption as possible going forward and will never agree to a deal unless you fold. Will you give me an extension please?"

I'm exaggerating of course, but he could make threats alongside the request, reducing the chance of them being granted it.

He could. Which is why the legislation may need to say a bit more than "Ask for an extension, Boris".

It could, for example, say "Ask for an extension so the UK can have a general election". Or ". . . a second referendum". Or ". . . a citizens' assembly". Or ". . . so that NI can vote on whether it wants the backstop."

It could say "Any extension offered must be put to the House of Commons for acceptance or rejection".

It could say lots of things that would tie Johnson's hands in various ways. The difficulty will be remainers reaching agreement on what it's going to say.

Balanadan

InTheShadows wrote: »

It's on the way

It's not mate. Do you want someone to call a taxi for you?

fash

Peregrinus wrote: »

Can only be changed by unanimous agreement of the UK and the other member states of the EU. In practice this means that the UK has to request an amendment, and the EU-27 have to agree unanimously to give it.

Could an "we need a few weeks extra- here is our unanimous EU Agreement to extend" as a final spike to a "blame for no deal".
Johnson is likely to give a "take or no deal" offer with no time to decide to the EU as a final blame exercise.
A great counter is a "all you need to do is sign" 1 month extension.

ancapailldorcha

InTheShadows wrote: »

It's on the way

Balanadan wrote: »

It's not mate. Do you want someone to call a taxi for you?

Enough of this nonsense please.

Limpy

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

Peregrinus

InTheShadows wrote: »

It's on the way

It's been arriving any day now for the past three-and-a-half years.

Face it, mate. It's like the German auto industry and the Italian prosecco-fermenters. They're not coming to rescue you. They never were. Events consistently and obstinately refuse to unfold as Brexiters predict because Brexiters, basically, are not in touch with reality. Their war is with a fantasy that they have concocted for themselves.

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We are down to the wire and they are still eejiting about.

So, I propose that the EU council agrees an extension offer and puts it on the table ready for the Council meeting in Finland on Oct. 17th.

The offer spells out that a fixed one (or better, two!) year extension is available to the UK if they request it any time up to 23:59:59 on Oct 31st. No other extension will be entertained, and any request for a shorter or conditional extension will be rejected.

Over to you, Boris.

An extension of that length would be of no benefit to the EU. The last one was very nearly a non-runner, another one would require something akin to a GE or a referendum to get it across the line. Remember "Do not waste this time"? That wasn't Donald Tusk speaking in a personal capacity. It was a message from the EuCo. They've been wasting this time and Johnson's prorogation is wasting more of it.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

We're also talking about the effect on people. Brexit isn't ideal for either side. NI for example will take a huge hit, jobs losses, families devastated, health services reduced..... life won't go on for all, that's the problem. Get in touch with reality.

Peregrinus

fash wrote: »

Could an "we need a few weeks extra- here is our unanimous EU Agreement to extend" as a final spike to a "blame for no deal".
Johnson is likely to give a "take or no deal" offer with no time to decide to the EU as a final blame exercise.
A great counter is a "all you need to do is sign" 1 month extension.

Not gonna happen. It's true now that all they need to do is sign, and yet they're not signing. No reason for the EU to extend this if nothing has changed to make the UK want to sign, or to make it likely that they will want to sign during the extension. Just reinforces the impression that the EU will grasp at straws to defer a no-deal Brexit, and it is not in the EU's interest to reinforce that impression.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

All of this conspires to make it very difficult to admit that you have made a mistake, and try to undo the harm.

Yes, but I am suggesting that the Governments (including ours) have seen more realistic projections for what will happen than anything which has been released.

The reality will be worse than the Yellowhammer picture of empty shelves, fuel shortages, port collapse at Dover, civil unrest and troops on the streets.

Dymo

lawred2 wrote: »

Fair enough but why would you wait for the government to tell you those things? In a no deal scenario the UK becomes a third country and as such the rules governing trade and commerce with third countries come into play.

These rules are in the public domain and if your business is dependent on UK trade it's in your interest to be already well versed in them.

As for stockpiling - well that's not something an Irish government call tell anyone to do really.. That will be on a case by case basis.

As for alternative supply chains? Sure many many companies have been seeking those since the Brexit vote. Figures speak for themselves - Ireland's dependence on UK imports has been reducing year on year.

Exactly I agree, but it's nine weeks out and the government seems to be letting every company do their own thing it hasn't set out clear guidelines like saying "It's looking like a no deal on the 31st, here is what every company must do." There are import export businesses but also a load of online business dealing with the UK.

I didn't really care 6 months ago and I have faith in the Irish politicians dealing with brexit but I think there comes a time when they will have to accept one outcome and prepare for it.

woejus

VinLieger wrote: »

Once October 31st hits everything is wiped off the board and they are starting from scratch, they cannot come cap in hand to the EU asking to get the WA as it wont exist anymore.

This is a question I can't find the answer to : can the EU give The Brits a mulligan and re-admit them on the same terms as before, is there sufficient flexibility in the admittance procedure to put things back the way they were? The "Bobby Ewing Shower" option, so to speak.

Has this been spoken about anywhere?

Charles Babbage

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Just reinforces the impression that the EU will grasp at straws to defer a no-deal Brexit, and it is not in the EU's interest to reinforce that impression.

The EU absolutely should grasp at straws to defer a no deal brexit if the other option is no deal brexit right now.

Pay now or pay in a years time is a no-brainer.

And maybe the horse will learn to sing.

Limpy

munstermagic11 wrote: »

We're also talking about the effect on people. Brexit isn't ideal for either side. NI for example will take a huge hit, jobs losses, families devastated, health services reduced..... life won't go on for all, that's the problem. Get in touch with reality.

It's not Armageddon.

People can still fly or work in other countries. I was made redundant myself and like many others we either got a new job or a new skill (education) for new job.

Imreoir2

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

Countries have survived such things, but plenty of people have not, and it is the impact on ordinary people that should concern us.

lawred2

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

It's unnecessary crap like Brexit that leads to wars. And people die in wars. And countries disappear in wars.

Brexit will not put anything to bed.

Brexit will be the opening chapter of an even longer deeply unsettling story.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Limpy wrote: »

It's not Armageddon.

People can still fly or work in other countries. I was made redundant myself and like many others we either got a new job or a new skill (education) for new job.

I'm not saying it will be. But it's going to have a massive impact on a lot of people's lives. It's not about you, it's about them. I'm sure the 80 year old whose medication may be late will be delighted that they can always just fly somewhere else and get a job/skill/education.

CrabRevolution

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

By that logic we should have no plans or policies or ideas, and also shouldn't discuss anything ever. All because it's not the literal end of the world

"The world is more advanced now"; what does that even mean?

Stop moaning ffs

Oh I have to listen to this. On this weeks telegraph choppers Brexit podcast


Nigel Farage: the brexit party could make Boris Johnson a hero
The Brexit Party leader tells Christopher Hope how his candidates could be Boris Johnson’s saving grace and why ‘no-deal’ is the only way forward — plus he reveals what President Trump had to say about the new Prime Minister on his most recent visit to the US.

prawnsambo

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

Countries have not survived wars and famines. The famine here had ramifications that lasted almost a century. And arguably for a lot longer when you take into account the loss of population. As for wars, countries have completely disappeared due to war. Remember Yogoslavia, Tibet, Czechoslovakia, South Vietnam, Biafra and of course Korea? And that's not including countries that existed in the middle ages and are now long gone. Like Schleswig for example.

Stop moaning ffs

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

Is there no end to David Quinn’s expertises? First women’s wombs then constitutional law re marriage now trade negotiations?? Have I missed any?

Is there no start to his talents more like. Why is this man allowed near a microphone at all?

El Weirdo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

Iona Institute David Quinn? Why is he on the radio talking about Bexit? In fact, why is he on the radio talking about anything?

Igotadose

Limpy wrote: »

Get a grip people.

Countries have survived devastating war's and famines. The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

The UK and Europe will be fine. Life will go on. Border or backstop.

But, this one's unnecessary and pulled out of someone's a**e. Life would have gone on fine in the UK, NI and Ireland *without* Brexit. Fine. As in, boring, safe, growing economies, steady jobs.

If you think the world's more advanced now, why are so many people hungry at night? Why do so many live in the street? All the world is *now*, is more crowded.