Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Igotadose

El Weirdo wrote: »

Iona Institute David Quinn? Why is he on the radio talking about Bexit? In fact, why is he on the radio talking about anything?

Because his US backers are putting him up to it. It's why I Own Her does anything.

J Mysterio

Cheery comment from Sabine Weyand, EU Director-general for Trade.

https://twitter.com/WeyandSabine/status/1167160383976726528

prawnsambo

InTheShadows wrote: »

When the EU screws us over it's going to be epic watching the pro EU media here spin it as a win.

How many times does this trope have to be debunked. The EU screwing us over is the EU screwing the EU over. They rae not divisible. It would be like saying that your golf club is going to screw the members over.

Peregrinus

woejus wrote: »

This is a question I can't find the answer to : can the EU give The Brits a mulligan and re-admit them on the same terms as before, is there sufficient flexibility in the admittance procedure to put things back the way they were? The "Bobby Ewing Shower" option, so to speak.

Has this been spoken about anywhere?

Yes, it has been discussed.

Can it be done? It would be extremely difficult. It would require unanimous consent from the EU-27 to recreate the former terms of UK membership, which would involve several departures from current rules about admission to membership. (E.g. the current rules require new members to commit to adopting the euro as their currency.)

I'm not saying it couldn't be done but, politically, it seems extremely unlikely. All member states would have to agree not to press for, um, tweaks to the UK's terms of membership that might benefit them, and they they wouldn't get a similar chance to press for. Plus, over all this, there's be considerable ambivalence about taking the UK back at all, if it was thought that they might carry on with the whingeing and throwing toys out of the pram. There's a widely-held view in the EU that the UK is currently a failing state, and they might prefer the UK to stabilise itself a bit and address some of the issues that have brought it to this pass before they welcome it back into the fold.

funkey_monkey

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This is popping up this morning. Can the EU withdraw the deadline?

https://twitter.com/htscotpol/status/1167364663522332672?s=21

Latest:

https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1167391536381743106

BarryD2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So role over for the Brexit cabal is your answer?

If we did that Britain would kick us around forever more even though we are part of the world's largest single market.

Brexit is not our choice and we have to stand up for ourselves or be walked over.

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

prawnsambo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Shameful performance by David Quinn on the Pat Kenny show now.
He seems to have been drinking the Brexit Kool-aid.
He reckons that the amount of goods crossing the border are not material in an EU context. But if Irish food polluted with illegal inputs then its reputation will be shot and a small amount of goods in an EU context might be very material if you are a trader in Monaghan or Letterkenny.

What's his thesis though? If he's suggesting that we don't have checks on the border, that's actually a reasonable one. In the short term, the volumes would be so small and the possibility of 'inferior' food products getting into the system would be non-existent until the UK got some sort of trade deal with a supplier of such food. By that time, they would be quite willing to treat the island of Ireland as part of the EU SM and ensure no such contamination occurs. Very little goes through Larne as it is.

Zubeneschamali

Limpy wrote: »

The world is more advanced now to handle any situation.

Have a read of summaries of the Yellowhammer report.

Boris and co. have said this is a worst case scenario, so it is safe to say that's a lie and they seen projections for much, much worse than that.

Add in a crisis in the City, panic buying, hoarding and price gouging, fuel rationing on forecourts, mass layoffs from shuttered JIT factories, and then the Police kill a young black rioter/looter...

prawnsambo

BarryD2 wrote: »

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

Time after time, you've been given links to the ACTUAL amount of trade we do with the UK. Under 10% of our exports go to the UK. A far higher percentage goes to the EU. We actually export more to Belgium. On its own. Seriosuly, why are you persisting with this stuff.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

An extension of that length would be of no benefit to the EU.

Ignore what happens in the UK, in Parliament, in the Press, on the streets of London. We can agree that it is a shambles and no progress was made, ignore that for now and focus on the EU.

What did the extension cost the EU? What would another 1 year extension cost?

Answer - virtually nothing since in the extension period nothing changes.

What will No Deal cost the EU? an absolute metric ass-load of cash money as trade with a major partner suffer huge disruption starting Nov 1st.

An extension is an absolute no brainer.

And that is before we consider what No Deal might do to the UK - turning it into a failed state on the EUs doorstep.

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ignore what happens in the UK, in Parliament, in the Press, on the streets of London. We can agree that it is a shambles and no progress was made, ignore that for now and focus on the EU.

What did the extension cost the EU? What would another 1 year extension cost?

Answer - virtually nothing since in the extension period nothing changes.

What will No Deal cost the EU? an absolute metric ass-load of cash money as trade with a major partner suffer huge disruption starting Nov 1st.

An extension is an absolute no brainer.

And that is before we consider what No Deal might do to the UK - turning it into a failed state on the EUs doorstep.

One with an aging Nuclear arsenal, too.

El Weirdo

BarryD2 wrote: »

We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

Even ignoring all the other stuff, the history we share is exactly why we should be moving as far away from them (economically) as is possible.

Calina

BarryD2 wrote: »

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

No. This is not inevitable and while I generally do not invoke this argument, it is not what we fought a civil war for 100 years ago.

We have put a metric tonne of effort into realigning our interests away from the vagaries of the UK and their godawful constitutional arrangements which given events on Wed is worth doing.

I hope you aren't willing to give up what we have now.

But you are a disaster fantasist I think. It's obvious from your posts lately.

Zubeneschamali

woejus wrote: »

This is a question I can't find the answer to : can the EU give The Brits a mulligan and re-admit them on the same terms as before, is there sufficient flexibility in the admittance procedure to put things back the way they were? The "Bobby Ewing Shower" option, so to speak.

Article 50, invoked by the UK and about to have effect on Oct 31 says:

If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Article 49 is the same article under which any random country would ask to join. It would be very hard for the EU to allow the UK back in and immediately exempt them from the Euro, Schengen, give them a rebate etc. etc., because of the precedent it would set for other nations joining.

trellheim

Andrea Leadsom and Amber Rudd visited Belfast in last 24 hours.

Next level threat which I predicted ( Direct Rule) may well be about to come onto the cards.

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

Andrea Leadsom and Amber Rudd visited Belfast in last 24 hours.

Next level threat which I predicted ( Direct Rule) may well be about to come onto the cards.

Nationalists will **** the bed and rightly so because this is the DUP's dream and they wont see it as a threat since their 2 major issues irish language act and same sex marriage are likely to come in regardless

c.p.w.g.w

VinLieger wrote: »

Nationalists will **** the bed and rightly so

If it were to happen, it will reignite to troubles

J Mysterio

This fella Jonathan Lis from 'think tank' British Influence on Al Jazeera.

https://twitter.com/Ui_Maine/status/1167344765131808768

trellheim

its the missing nuclear option out there which you can bet your bottom dollar will get used . and it has to be soon , the only fix is for SF to go back into Assembly

Imreoir2

BarryD2 wrote: »

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

If you bothered to look at the evidence, you would see that the EU is vastly more important to the Irish economy than the UK. You solution seems to suggest that we should cut our hands off to avoid a blister.

Ireland will not be getting dragged out of the EU by the UK because to leave the EU to maintain links with the UK would be economic suicide for us, it would not be in our interest to do so, and because of that it wont happen.

ballsymchugh

VinLieger wrote: »

Nationalists will **** the bed and rightly so because this is the DUP's dream and they wont see it as a threat since their 2 major issues irish language act and same sex marriage are likely to come in regardless

AFAIK the Irish Language act wasn't one of the things to come in in October, it was abortion and same sex marriage. don't know why they didn't tag the Irish language act onto it.

VinLieger

Nice little medium article detailing how wrong the claim is that people voted for no deal brexit


https://medium.com/@MrMichaelShaw/three-charts-that-sum-up-the-uks-craziness-right-now-91e456f196c5


Some useful graphs for countering that narrative too

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Ignore what happens in the UK, in Parliament, in the Press, on the streets of London. We can agree that it is a shambles and no progress was made, ignore that for now and focus on the EU.

What did the extension cost the EU? What would another 1 year extension cost?

Answer - virtually nothing since in the extension period nothing changes.

It costs the EU a lot in terms of its own business that is constantly being sidelined to deal with the UK's little psychodrama. But it also costs the EU member states in terms of continuity of business and uncertainty. And judging by previous behaviour, the UK will just run the next extension down to the wire too. There has to be a cogent, deliverable and short-term reason for the UK to get an extension. Not for more of the same.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

What will No Deal cost the EU? an absolute metric ass-load of cash money as trade with a major partner suffer huge disruption starting Nov 1st.

An extension is an absolute no brainer.

It will suffer disruption, but it will not cease entirely. At worst, there will be a reduction. But the UK is absolutely dependant on EU food imports and many industries are equally dependant on supply from the EU. It will get more expensive for them, but what choice do they have? Any other source will require time and they will be on the back foot in negotiating terms.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

And that is before we consider what No Deal might do to the UK - turning it into a failed state on the EUs doorstep.

An extension will not change that. Not without a defined reason and endpoint. At some point the UK has to decide what they are going to do. Giving them an extension is just pandering to their indecision. And it gives oxygen to the hard brexiters who can renew their screams of betrayal. They have to make a decision and they have to make it now. Johnson's move to close parliament may well focus minds. Let's not take them out of the frying pan to procrastinate even more.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

It costs the EU a lot in terms of its own business that is constantly being sidelined to deal with the UK's little psychodrama. But it also costs the EU member states in terms of continuity of business and uncertainty.

The EU has had to do virtually nothing on Brexit since Nov 2018. It has just been the UK arguing with itself.

And the "uncertainty" is just uncertainty about when No Deal might happen, with the worst case being... right now.

It's like a soldier under fire saying uncertainty about maybe getting shot is stressful, and the suggested solution is to stand up and volunteer to get shot right now to end the uncertainty.

CelticRambler

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

So, I propose that the EU council ... spells out that a fixed one (or better, two!) year extension is available to the UK if they request it ...

An extension to do what? The UK has had two years and an extra six months to formalise their departure arrangements, and here we are less than two months from Brexit Day (3rd revision) and the British government has decided to suspend parliament at the very moment MPs should be dotting the last i and crossing the last t.

What benefit is it to the EU to indulge the UK's foolishness for another year or two, especially when there are plenty of other (arguably more serious) matters to be dealt with?

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The reality will be worse than the Yellowhammer picture of empty shelves, fuel shortages, port collapse at Dover, civil unrest and troops on the streets.

VinLieger wrote: »

I think you are being very naive, it will take a week or two at least for the full ramifications to be felt and even then trying to get brexiteers to agree this is the fault of brexit and not everyone else they can point a finger at will be nigh impossible.

I agree with VinLieger: there's going to be no sudden meltdown on Nov 1st. Stockpiling means that British shelves will remain full for a month or more; and the EU's unilateral concessions will mean that most travel and trade from the UK will continue as before. The UK has published its schedule of tariffs, so we know that the price of most staples won't increase in the short term.

At the earliest, it will be some time towards the end of the year, more likely well into next year that the real impact is felt, starting with businesses closing -> jobs being lost -> disposable income evaporating -> house prices dropping -> negative equity rearing its head again -> greater demand for national social & health services at a time when the government's revenue is dropping -> government needs to borrow at unfavourable rates -> ballooning national debt -> finally some measure of realisation by the 17.4million that being part of the EU wasn't such a bad thing after all.

storker

BarryD2 wrote: »

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality.

I thought that too. Then I educated myself about the subject, and now I don't. I'm no little Irelander, in fact I'm half English, but we need to cut those apron strings once and for all, particularly now that mummy has gone psycho...

LuckyLloyd

BarryD2 wrote: »

So what's your solution then? That the ordinary Irish citizen, taxpayer and consumer will pick up the tab for the sake of ideology?

I'm no lover of the Brits, love nothing more than to see us get one over them on the sports field etc. But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

When this whole business started, I was of the opinion that if Brexit ever came to pass and in particular a no deal Brexit, that Irexit will be an inevitable reality. Maybe not immediately but I think we'll be obliged for many practical reasons to realign ourselves. So the Brits will drag us out too, just like we went into the EEC together, just like the EU framework backs up the GFA.

And do you know what. We've a lot of Euro skeptics here (keeping quiet at the moment) who would be quite happy to see this come to pass. I wouldn't be among them but they've been very prominent in previous referendums and include political figures and parties here.

Oh you’re an Irexit guy, your mealy mouthed posts suggested as much. Again, your posts are contradicted by fact:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112%3fmode=amp

More than 90% of Irish people want to stay in the EU. Yet again you continue to post nonsense easily contradicted by facts. Why do you persist?

prunudo

Don't know what to make of this. Has he just shown his hand to the EU, seems a far cry from the bravado and bluster from his interviews a few weeks back. As usual, never know what the real story is with Boris.

Sky News: https://news.sky.com/story/live-ireland-claims-nothing-credible-from-uk-as-brexit-negotiations-stepped-up-11797517?inApp=true

Shelga

If I hear him say “our friends and partners in the EU” one more time, I will scream.

CelticRambler

Dymo wrote: »

it's nine weeks out and the government seems to be letting every company do their own thing it hasn't set out clear guidelines like saying "It's looking like a no deal on the 31st, here is what every company must do."

Ah listen: they've been running ads for ages telling businesses to figure out what they need to do to be ready for Brexit. I live 1000 miles away and I've heard them, so anyone in Ireland who hasn't copped on at this stage deserves to sink with the HMS Unicorn.

BarryD2 wrote: »

But I also understand the close links between our countries and as the smaller neighbour, how our bread is buttered. We can't escape our geography or history for that matter.

Yeah, we also have a long history (and geography) shared with our continental neighbours. There was a time when the people of Munster spoke French and Spanish - but no English - because they were our most important trading partners. This wouldn't be the first time we've turned to the French or the Spanish for a bit of help when the crowd on the neighbouring island were acting the eejit.

Besides, there's a string of town and cities from the French and Belgian coastlines to central Europe that were founded by Irish monks. We are Europeans, we think like Europeans, and we will continue to grow and develop as Europeans however much the Britons try to dissociate themselves from the rest of us.