Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Johnson is simply trying to limit the number of his own MPs leaking to the other side in any vote in Parliament next week, no other concern.
He'll spin them any ould sh1te.

Stop moaning ffs

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Oh you’re an Irexit guy, your mealy mouthed posts suggested as much. Again, your posts are contradicted by fact:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112%3fmode=amp

More than 90% of Irish people want to stay in the EU. Yet again you continue to post nonsense easily contradicted by facts. Why do you persist?

Across several threads repeating the same nonsense despite being corrected repeatedly.
You’d wonder why

prawnsambo

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU has had to do virtually nothing on Brexit since Nov 2018. It has just been the UK arguing with itself.

And the "uncertainty" is just uncertainty about when No Deal might happen, with the worst case being... right now.

It's like a soldier under fire saying uncertainty about maybe getting shot is stressful, and the suggested solution is to stand up and volunteer to get shot right now to end the uncertainty.

Every EuCo since then has been taken up by brexit. And there have also been sepcial sessions to deal with it. It's been all-consuming. The uncertainty has also been about whether an agreement can be arrived at. The no deal stuff is still (until it happens) sabre rattling on behalf of the UK. So businesses still don't know for sure if it's no deal, a deal or a revocation coming down the line. Granted a revocation is unlikely, but it's still very possible.

I don't think your analogy really fits. The chances of the UK leaving on no deal and continuing to operate as a sole nation on purely WTO MFN rules (afaik, their schedule split with the EU has still not been agreed) without coming back to the EU for some kind of trade deal in the very near term and having to agree the terms of the WA are (imo) slim to none.

Let's not forget that the WA is just the housekeeping. It's not a trade deal and it's no indication of how the UK will exist outside the EU after the TP. So even if the WA is signed off, two years hence, the same conditions (in terms of our relationship with the UK on purely trade terms) will prevail. Exports to the UK will likely bear tariffs and will involve NTBs and imports weill also carry tariffs and the overhead of NTBs.

To take the cold-eyed and probably callous view: They're leaving, they will be a third country and at that point, it's what benefits the EU most that should be the overriding principle. Leaving them more time to prepare for a hard brexit (if that's their aim) is of no benefit whatsoever to the EU.

prawnsambo

CelticRambler wrote: »

I agree with VinLieger: there's going to be no sudden meltdown on Nov 1st. Stockpiling means that British shelves will remain full for a month or more; and the EU's unilateral concessions will mean that most travel and trade from the UK will continue as before. The UK has published its schedule of tariffs, so we know that the price of most staples won't increase in the short term.

Afaik, these have not been agreed by the WTO yet. There were quite a number of objections; from New Zealand (et tu Brute), Argentina (Well they would, wouldn't they) and others. They have to be unainmous, all 163 members. Going from the frying pan of 27 to the fire of 163.

Leroy42

In that Sky news link, Johnson IMO, makes a bit of a gaff.

He says they need a deal (he is talking about remain MPs reducing his chances of getting a deal).

Not want, need. Sure it could be reading too much into a specific word (except for the fact that it is true).

He knows No Deal is not a runner, in the way TM knew.

Strazdas

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Oh you’re an Irexit guy, your mealy mouthed posts suggested as much. Again, your posts are contradicted by fact:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/more-than-90-of-irish-people-want-to-stay-in-eu-poll-reveals-1.3488112%3fmode=amp

More than 90% of Irish people want to stay in the EU. Yet again you continue to post nonsense easily contradicted by facts. Why do you persist?

The main reason Irexit is nonsensical is that the ROI is a small country of 5m and an export led economy. Leaving the SM and Eurozone would absolutely decimate the economy, worse than the 2008 crash.

Igotadose

LBC's James O'Brien has what passes for a fiery* monologue this a.m.. My favorite line is, "(Brexiteers) will love it when they get hurt, because Remoaners like James O'Brien will feel sorry for them."

He absolutely destroys the most recent round of true Brexit religion madness, where callers celebrate the PM lying to them.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/james-obriens-electrifying-monologue-on-the-lies-o/

*: Unfortunately, the intrusive libel/slander laws in the UK and Ireland keep this from being less amusing than the same sort of things you hear in the US media. No one's directly callling anyone names, questioning their parentage, making fun of their physical appearance, etc. Libel's too easy to prove in the UK.

LuckyLloyd

Strazdas wrote: »

The main reason Irexit is nonsensical is that the ROI is a small country of 5m and an export led economy. Leaving the SM and Eurozone would absolutely decimate the economy, worse than the 2008 crash.

It’s a ridiculous notion ignorant of our trading realities, but it also has little or no public support. Indeed support for the EU here is rising since the start of the Brexit crisis in the UK.

prawnsambo

Strazdas wrote: »

The main reason Irexit is nonsensical is that the ROI is a small country of 5m and an export led economy. Leaving the SM and Eurozone would absolutely decimate the economy, worse than the 2008 crash.

Let me count the ways.

1. Losing 90% of our export markets (either to the EU or via EU FTAs)
2. Losing pretty much all our FDI. How many jobs is that?
3. Being completely dependant on the UK. That worked well the last time.
4. Losing FoM. Which coupled with 2 above would mean no emigration to take the pressure off the exchequer. Except to the UK of course (as long as they continue to honour the CTA - See 3 above).

Good move Irexit. Can't wait.

Strazdas

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

It’s a ridiculous notion ignorant of our trading realities, but it also has little or no public support. Indeed support for the EU here is rising since the start of the Brexit crisis in the UK.

Yes, the most recent Eurobarometer showed Ireland as nearly the most pro-EU country in Europe (I imagine Brexit is helping with this).

jimmycrackcorm

Peregrinus wrote: »

In fairness, I think FF have a bit of a point here.

My one criticism of the government is that they should have been more upfront about the consequences if the UK refuses to honour it's no-hard-border guarantee by committing to the backstop, or something equally effective.

Letting people think that we could still avoid a hard border in that scenario played into the Brexiters' hands by giving them a basis for arguing that the backstop wasn't necessary/had a sinister purpose. And it discouraged business and people in Ireland from considering the prospect of a hard border, and how it might affect them, and what plans they might make to mitigate damage in that situation.

I don't think that the Irish government talking about what would happen in a no-deal situation could ever have been spun into Ireland accepting a no-deal. You can turn every talking about what would happen in no-deal into a diatribe against no-deal and a restatement of the need for the UK not to force it on us.

I don't agree with this because the reality is that hard brexit means a hard border that we have to put up and that gives the UK a give scoring point to continually day that Ireland are definitely going to put up a border while they continually blatantly lie that they had no intention of doing the same.

As such after hard brexit we will have to put up the border but it will be seen as a response to the UKs choice.
Any hint beforehand just plays straight into the brexiteers book.

Balanadan

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, the most recent Eurobarometer showed Ireland as nearly the most pro-EU country in Europe (I imagine Brexit is helping with this).

And when you look at anti-Irish bile emanating from some quarters in the UK, usually staunch pro-Brexit quarters, you'd have to question the sanity of anyone thinking Ireland should leave the EU to align with them!

ath262

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy , and really will exit with no deal thinking that the EU will suddenly break all their principles, damage the single market and possibly the EU by doing so, and somehow change the WA... if so they hopelessly misunderstand how the EU functions. Not the first senior UK politician to be guilty of this

CelticRambler

ath262 wrote: »

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy ...

Having just seen that, I'm not convinced there's any acting involved.

"The best way to get a deal, is to show that we're preparing for no-deal"

Ehhhh, Boris, you're going to need a deal sooner or later. The best way to do so would be to stop saying you don't care whether or not you get it.

storker

ath262 wrote: »

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy , and really will exit with no deal thinking that the EU will suddenly break all their principles, damage the single market and possibly the EU by doing so, and somehow change the WA... if so they hopelessly misunderstand how the EU functions. Not the first senior UK politician to be guilty of this

I'm reminded of Napoleon waiting too long in Moscow, convinced that the Tsar would get in touch to negotiate any day now.

ath262

CelticRambler wrote: »

Having just seen that, I'm not convinced there's any acting involved.

"The best way to get a deal, is to show that we're preparing for no-deal"

Ehhhh, Boris, you're going to need a deal sooner or later. The best way to do so would be to stop saying you don't care whether or not you get it.

that the illogical idea they keep bringing up - the UK shooting themselves in the foot (or wherever) is not as great a threat to the EU as damaging the single market, four freedoms, risking the hard-won peace in Ireland etc would be

CelticRambler

I read (or heard) something somewhere this morning (sorry, been scooting all over th'internet today, can't remember where) suggesting that some cabinet minister (?) was caught saying that Britain's political system is based on the "winner takes all" principle, and in proroguing parliament Johnson is just pushing that to the limit.

Whether or not the comment is true in respect of the prorogation, it is certainly true in respect of British politics, and this attitude has undoubtedly been a major contributor to the shambles of a negotiation strategy with the EU (and HoC's inability to mount a coherent counterstrategy to the government). It doesn't bode well for the many other negotiations that will have to take place in years to come.

VinLieger

CelticRambler wrote: »

I read (or heard) something somewhere this morning (sorry, been scooting all over th'internet today, can't remember where) suggesting that some cabinet minister (?) was caught saying that Britain's political system is based on the "winner takes all" principle, and in proroguing parliament Johnson is just pushing that to the limit.

Whether or not the comment is true in respect of the prorogation, it is certainly true in respect of British politics, and this attitude has undoubtedly been a major contributor to the shambles of a negotiation strategy with the EU (and HoC's inability to mount a coherent counterstrategy to the government). It doesn't bode well for the many other negotiations that will have to take place in years to come.

Yup here it is


https://twitter.com/MonarchyUK/status/1167048291273584641

ath262

CelticRambler wrote: »

I read (or heard) something somewhere this morning (sorry, been scooting all over th'internet today, can't remember where) suggesting that some cabinet minister (?) was caught saying that Britain's political system is based on the "winner takes all" principle, and in proroguing parliament Johnson is just pushing that to the limit.
....

sounds like Ben Wallace yesterday

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-politics-49516694/defence-secretary-ben-wallace-overheard-discussing-parliament-suspension

BarryD2

prawnsambo wrote: »

Time after time, you've been given links to the ACTUAL amount of trade we do with the UK. Under 10% of our exports go to the UK. A far higher percentage goes to the EU. We actually export more to Belgium. On its own. Seriosuly, why are you persisting with this stuff.

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

It's the real local economy that we should be concerned about. Because that's what will have a lasting impact.

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

Laois_Man

CelticRambler wrote: »

Ehhhh, Boris, you're going to need a deal sooner or later. The best way to do so would be to stop saying you don't care whether or not you get it.

He knows, it's all just a preemptive strike with general election campaign sound bytes

VinLieger

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

It's the real local economy that we should be concerned about. Because that's what will have a lasting impact.

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

Your attitude is very akin to the bexiteers magical thinking and the idea that wishing for unicorns would get us through if we went for an Irexit because if we all joined together and wished really really hard everything would work out regardless of the fact that we would be cutting ourself off from our biggest trading partner which gives us access to several of the other largest markets and free trade deals in the world.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

Go on then: show us the statistics that demonstrate that Supervalu and Centra are importing just as much from the UK now as they were three years ago.

And why - in your opinion - should a small business importing from the UK still be in business if they haven't already taken steps to protect themselves against Brexit? Do you (or they) know that there are 26 other countries that can supply goods to the same standards?

prawnsambo

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

Where do you think their groceries come from? Ever been to Lidl or Aldi? Or any of the Musgraves many chains of supermarkets? All source mainly from the continent.

BarryD2 wrote: »

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

You haven't looked at the figures then. Because y'know, they're broken down into commodities. It's ok to say you don't understand them though, we'll do our best to explain.

I've snipped the personal comment. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you're not trying to 'play the man'.

Igotadose

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

Any thought, for the poor small businesses in NI? Imagine the chaos when they can't source products from the ROI.

And the cost to the UK. As others have commented on your trolling post, Brexit's no surprise so they 'should' be ready. Are you confident HMG's plans have them covered?

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

BarryD2 wrote: »

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

Less of the personal digs please. Play the ball, not the man.

Thanks

Charles Babbage

Igotadose wrote: »

Any thought, for the poor small businesses in NI? Imagine the chaos when they can't source products from the ROI.

But they will, according to Boris, as there will be no checks on the NI side.

Their problem is much worse, they will have real problems selling in the 26 counties while businesses from there will be able to sell in NI.

McGiver

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Lyra Black Sportswoman wrote: »

Facts are important. 5% at the moment. 20 years ago it was about 5%

12% in 2009
16% in 2012

It was higher in 2012 than during the 90's, hitting ~18% during the 80's.

5% is effectively full employment

Ehm nope, 2-3% is the level.

Czech Republic has 1.9% unemployment - that's a full employment

L1011

McGiver wrote: »

Ehm nope, 2-3% is the level.

Czech Republic has 1.9% unemployment - that's a full employment

International standard is ~5%. 1.9% is either abnormally low or they're using bad definitions.

LuckyLloyd

BarryD2 wrote: »

My working definition of the real economy is different from yours. I'm thinking of the many small businesses up and down this country who import/ export goods from and via the U.K. Businesses that have a solid role to play in providing employment and in staying the course if they can at all. My definition includes the ordinary people who buy their daily groceries down in their local Supervalu or Centra or wherever.

This is the real economy, not your 'funny money' from the likes of Apple or Google etc etc which grossly inflates our GDP etc. Not the multi nationals, whilst their employment is welcome, are quite capable of upping sticks and moving off if it suits their boardroom and shareholders.

It's the real local economy that we should be concerned about. Because that's what will have a lasting impact.

Your user name Prawn Sambo is very apt

“Real local economy”

The notion that the entirety of Ireland’s actual economy is tiny businesses trading solely with the UK and that 90% of our economy is therefore illusory and effectively a bunch of major multinationals employing fake people making fake money is utterly bizarre, fantastical and completely and utterly wrong. Wrapping it in half baked put downs of the former being the reality of the normal working man and the latter being the ‘elite’ takes the biscuit.

But when you’re committed to a narrative, no matter how wrong it is, I guess ignoring reality is the objective.

The facts remain: Brexit hurts the Irish economy but it isn’t 1960, UK trade is a small minority of the business we do as a nation and we need to align with and focus on where 90% of our economy makes its money: the Single Market.