Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

fash

InTheShadows wrote: »

VinLieger wrote:

Your still waiting for that bus ehh?

It's on the way

Will it have a promise to put £350 million into the NHS on it and will it be hand-painted by Johnson?

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

“Real local economy”

The notion that the entirety of Ireland’s actual economy is tiny businesses trading solely with the UK and that 90% of our economy is therefore illusory and effectively a bunch of major multinationals employing fake people making fake money is utterly bizarre, fantastical and completely and utterly wrong. Wrapping it in half baked put downs of the former being the reality of the normal working man and the latter being the ‘elite’ takes the biscuit.

But when you’re committed to a narrative, no matter how wrong it is, I guess ignoring reality is the objective.

The facts remain: Brexit hurts the Irish economy but it isn’t 1960, UK trade is a small minority of the business we do as a nation and we need to align with and focus on where 90% of our economy makes its money: the Single Market.

They simply don't care about what happens to Ireland. The DUP are laughing them on.

Why would the DUP try reinstate a Stormant that doesn't matter to them.

I don't think the Conservative government gives a crap about Ireland. They want and have tried for an EU deal constantly without us but haven't got it.

Enzokk

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Here on Planet Earth, is was Johnson who loudly announced that he would not talk to the EU until they dropped the backstop. These twice a week talks are a total climbdown.

Meanwhile the EU has been open to negotiation on the content of the Political Declaration all along. It is the WA which they will not negotiate. There is no sign, none, that they have changed that longstanding position.

None of this is or will work out well for the UK.

What I tried to convey is that the EU was always going to open talks with a new leader. The EU is not unreasonable and thus negotiations was always going to happen. Framing it as the EU being unreasonable and then "winning that battle" when you knew they would he could spin it his way, even if it doesn't mean much in the larger scheme of things.

VinLieger

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

They simply don't care about what happens to Ireland. The DUP are laughing them on.

Why would the DUP try reinstate a Stormant that doesn't matter to them.

I don't think the Conservative government gives a crap about Ireland. They want and have tried for an EU deal constantly without us but haven't got it.

DUP really would do well to take heed of Edward Carsons thoughts on the tories

What a fool I was. I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into power.

Absolutely nothing has changed in 100 years

reslfj

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm going to reply to this inside the quote.

What are the new tariffs going to be.
From the UK, you'll need to look up the commodity code. Here. From France, none and from NI (imo) none.

Without a deal EU's WTO MFN tariffs will be collected from NI into Ireland/EU27 too. Regulatory control will also happen.

Might, however, not happen on Brexit day, as I'm sure the EU27 will focus on getting customs and controls working first for the England<->Continental EU trade.

Lars

If the UK will trade they need to 'integrate' many/most rules (follow the EU's standards). If they won't trade it will be OK for the EU27 too.

But the EU27+UK citizens rights, the backstop and paying the 'peanuts' money the UK owes (£39bn or whatever) is just something we must force the UK to uphold - with no mercy, no mitigation and no negotiations

Laois_Man

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I don't think the Conservative government gives a crap about Ireland.

Refer to Alex Boris Johnson's constant and annoying use of the "Our friends across the channel" line! They only look in that direction!

prawnsambo

reslfj wrote: »

Without a deal EU's WTO MFN tariffs will be collected from NI into Ireland/EU27 too. Regulatory control will also happen.

Might, however, not happen on Brexit day, as I'm sure the EU27 will focus on getting customs and controls working first for the England<->Continental EU trade.

Lars

Might not happen on brexit day plus one or two either. It's a weekend.

reslfj

is_that_so wrote: »

They are right to an extent about last minute changes and many a summit has gone down to the wire but once it's been agreed and nothing better shows up that's it.

Any EU<-> UK deal is a deal with a 3. country where A50 says the EU Parliament must give its consent too.

It's not and can't be a last minute operation.

Lars

prawnsambo

reslfj wrote: »

Any EU<-> UK deal is a deal with a 3. country where A50 says the EU Parliament must give its consent too.

It's not and can't be a last minute operation.

Lars

It would be quite amusing; if a deal were reached, to see Nigel Farage and co. having to vote on it.

Sam Russell

reslfj wrote: »

Without a deal EU's WTO MFN tariffs will be collected from NI into Ireland/EU27 too. Regulatory control will also happen.

Might, however, not happen on Brexit day, as I'm sure the EU27 will focus on getting customs and controls working first for the England<->Continental EU trade.

Lars

If the UK will trade they need to 'integrate' many/most rules (follow the EU's standards). If they won't trade it will be OK for the EU27 too.

But the EU27+UK citizens rights, the backstop and paying the 'peanuts' money the UK owes (£39bn or whatever) is just something we must force the UK to uphold - with no mercy, no mitigation and no negotiations

On Brexit day + 1, the milk lorry from Baiieborough that normally collects milk north and south of the border will be instructed that the milk will not be collected north of the border, not until there is a deal f some sort. Same goes for beef, lamb and pigs. Large companies cannot break the rules because the penalties could put them out of business.

So what does a NI farmer do with his milk?

I think Arlene needs to plan an answer.

Bit cynical

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That would be brilliant. Francois, Mogg, IDS et al would go bananas.

Optics would not be good for the EU however. Much better that the UK come begging to the EU for an extension than the other way round from the EU's perspective.

Leroy42

Sam Russell wrote: »

I think Arlene needs to plan an answer.

Arlene already has an answer. The UK will simply increase the subvention to keep things exactly the same, and if there are losses then that is a price worth paying to stay in the union and the unionist community has been through much worse.

I would then expect that any nationalist that complain will be told that they can always move to the ROI. Since, of course, it is all Leo's fault anyway.

Sam Russell

Leroy42 wrote: »

Arlene already has an answer. The UK will simply increase the subvention to keep things exactly the same, and if there are losses then that is a price worth paying to stay in the union and the unionist community has been through much worse.

I would then expect that any nationalist that complain will be told that they can always move to the ROI. Since, of course, it is all Leo's fault anyway.

But what do they do with milk? That is the question that Arlene needs to answer. There will be a lot of milk sloshing around NI. We can survive without it.

briany

SNIP. Enough of the sarcasm please.

Imreoir2

Sam Russell wrote: »

But what do they do with milk? That is the question that Arlene needs to answer. There will be a lot of milk sloshing around NI. We can survive without it.

You pour it out, and if you keep having to do that, then you sell or cull your heard, then you go to have an unpleasant talk with the bank manager.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You pour it out, and if you keep having to do that, then you sell or cull your heard, then you go to have an unpleasant talk with the bank manager.

Then very quickly your entire farm/livelihood comes under pressure. And that is when the real anger sets in.

CelticRambler

Sam Russell wrote: »

But what do they do with milk? That is the question that Arlene needs to answer. There will be a lot of milk sloshing around NI.

They can sell it cheap to the British. At the very least, it'll help British pig farmers cut costs before their market is flooded with cheap hogs from the States.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Then very quickly your entire farm/livelihood comes under pressure. And that is when the real anger sets in.

Especially if wealthy "vultures" from the Republic start buying up land and property that's being auctioned off at a hefty discount, what with GBPs being so cheap and all ...

Imreoir2

The UK still considers themselves to be a great power, and as such they believe they have and deserve their own sphere of influence in the world that encompases their former Empire. It goes without saying that Ireland is in the British sphere of influence and this is supposed to be understood by all parties.

Ireland forgetting its place is frustrating but understandable, it is only Ireland after all and Ireland is know to be troublesome. This is why so many Brexiteers feel the need to remind us of our place, of the special relationship between Ireland and Britain, our dependance on the British economey and how much better if would be if Ireland came along with the UK in leaving the EU.

The EU sticking its nose in where it does not belong however is unforgivable. It is deeply disrespectful of Britains place in the world to have the EU butting into the relationship between Ireland and the UK and convincing the Irish to stand up to Britian. Ireland is being mislead by an outside power that cannot possibly have our interests at heart, becasue our true interests are to be back in our place playing second fiddle to the UKs interests.

prawnsambo

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You pour it out, and if you keep having to do that, then you sell or cull your heard, then you go to have an unpleasant talk with the bank manager.

Some farmers have already bought farms across the border and moved part of their operation there. I heard one guy interviewed (on RTE I think) who'd bought land in Donegal and his son was setting up there in preparation.

But they can't all do that. It's not fun times for them.

Stop moaning ffs

Just on the farming of it all.
Could we see those big corps that own mega farms in the US swoop in up north?
Would there be any legal block to a farmer in dire straits as above selling his lot to one of them?
Is there anything stopping them coming in that way and buying one farm at a time and doing the industrial scale farming the states have?

lawred2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Just on the farming of it all.
Could we see those big corps that own mega farms in the US swoop in up north?
Would there be any legal block to a farmer in dire straits as above selling his lot to one of them?
Is there anything stopping them coming in that way and buying one farm at a time and doing the industrial scale farming the states have?

nothing at all - sure it would be used as evidence of how this new trading relationship with the US is working wonders

prawnsambo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Just on the farming of it all.
Could we see those big corps that own mega farms in the US swoop in up north?
Would there be any legal block to a farmer in dire straits as above selling his lot to one of them?
Is there anything stopping them coming in that way and buying one farm at a time and doing the industrial scale farming the states have?

Those mega farms are massive. You'd lose an entire county in one of them. Not sure how that would work.

Stop moaning ffs

lawred2 wrote: »

nothing at all - sure it would be used as evidence of how this new trading relationship with the US is working wonders

Thought as much. That’s kinda scary.

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Thought as much. That’s kinda scary.

Lets not forgot the environmental impact of those monstrosities it would definitely spill over the border in various ways

Stop moaning ffs

prawnsambo wrote: »

Those mega farms are massive. You'd lose an entire county in one of them. Not sure how that would work.

I don’t think size or scale would matter. They’re there for the profit.
But have Flown over them in the US and it’s mind blowing how big they are

Stop moaning ffs

VinLieger wrote: »

Lets not forgot the environmental impact of those monstrosities it would definitely spill over the border in various ways

That was my other thought. Would you see Irish farming thinking, I’ve no son to take over. It doesn’t pay its grueling work. I’m selling up.

I think it might become a factor.

As and how it clashes up to Eu rules though might be a thing

I know nothing about farming just occurred to me as a way out of despair for farmers up north

declanflynn

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

You pour it out, and if you keep having to do that, then you sell or cull your heard, then you go to have an unpleasant talk with the bank manager.

Then very quickly your entire farm/livelihood comes under pressure. And that is when the real anger sets in.

Anger only sets in if you are a remainer if you are a brexiteer you dump your milk happy in the knowledge that you are doing in without restrictions from Brussels

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That was my other thought. Would you see Irish farming thinking, I’ve no son to take over. It doesn’t pay its grueling work. I’m selling up.

I think it might become a factor.

As and how it clashes up to Eu rules though might be a thing

I know nothing about farming just occurred to me as a way out of despair for farmers up north

I meant more that the environmental impact for instance to the water table and air quality goes far beyond the boundaries of the farms themselves and cannot be controlled by a border

trellheim

OK back to timelines

Assuming a deal is there to be done and no A50 extension request ( ignore proroguing its all dead cat stuff , and assuming the ERG can be brough onside )

Johnson has to make a the guts of a deal done by EUCO 17 October

Said deal HAS to assure the EU it will pass the Commons and the Lords ( which means ERG and/or Labour AND the DUP need to be in the tent , and very publicly saying so too )

With conference recess about to hit , how on earth can the space for a deal get created , the only possible thing I can think of is a super-compressed scenario leading up to the last week with a vote to ratify at 2359 31 October

does anyone have a different idea how this might work out ?

random ideas - get labour to abstain the ratification vote ? pass a law creating 200 new conservative MP robots ?

really am scratching the head here

declanflynn

The dup mite bring in a money for milk scheme