Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

fash

Imreoir2 wrote: »

If you bothered to look at the evidence, you would see that the EU is vastly more important to the Irish economy than the UK. You solution seems to suggest that we should cut our hands off to avoid a blister.

Ireland will not be getting dragged out of the EU by the UK because to leave the EU to maintain links with the UK would be economic suicide for us, it would not be in our interest to do so, and because of that it wont happen.

Why would we give up 90% of our trade with partners who respect and support us to stay with a (collapsing) partner with whom we have 10% trade which is trying to f**k us and literally starve us to death?
Am I missing something?

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

Johnson has to make a the guts of a deal done by EUCO 17 October

The deal is done, it is on the table. The UK can take it or leave with No Deal.

As to what Johnson is up to, I have seen several commentators on Twitter say their sources in Whitehall have told them they are overestimating the amount of thought the UK Government have put in. They are literally winging it with no clue how it could work out.

J Mysterio

Inspiring comments from Johnson here. The way he is so flippant and blase is astonishing.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1167420018260267010

Also how he refers to 'the parliamentarians'. They are somehow 'other' and distinct to what he is.

maebee

declanflynn wrote: »

The dup mite bring in a money for milk scheme

Moving from "Cash for Ash" to "Cash Cow".

woohoo!!!

I'd say there's a good chance that farmers in NI, knowing they're up the creek without a paddle, that they'll be dumping their milk at DUP HQ and no amount of flegs or such palaver will distract their ire. The same applies to other sectors that are going to get absolutely hammered.

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

Inspiring comments from Johnson here. The way he is so flippant and blase is astonishing.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1167420018260267010

Also how he refers to 'the parliamentarians'. They are somehow 'other' and distinct to what he is.

There is already speculation Johnson and Cummings are planning a "People vs the Parliament" general election.

BarryD2

CelticRambler wrote: »

And why - in your opinion - should a small business importing from the UK still be in business if they haven't already taken steps to protect themselves against Brexit? Do you (or they) know that there are 26 other countries that can supply goods to the same standards?

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

Frank Bullitt

If Ireland left the EU to go along with Brexit (like some posters have suggested), I would gladly give up my passport and go with he Canadian one over it.

J Mysterio

trellheim wrote: »

OK back to timelines

Assuming a deal is there to be done and no A50 extension request ( ignore proroguing its all dead cat stuff , and assuming the ERG can be brough onside )

Johnson has to make a the guts of a deal done by EUCO 17 October

Said deal HAS to assure the EU it will pass the Commons and the Lords ( which means ERG and/or Labour AND the DUP need to be in the tent , and very publicly saying so too )

With conference recess about to hit , how on earth can the space for a deal get created , the only possible thing I can think of is a super-compressed scenario leading up to the last week with a vote to ratify at 2359 31 October

does anyone have a different idea how this might work out ?

random ideas - get labour to abstain the ratification vote ? pass a law creating 200 new conservative MP robots ?

really am scratching the head here

Proroguing is not 'dead cat stuff'. Though Johnson is good at minimizing things, brushing things off his shoulder and diverting, what he is doing is an unprecedented outrage and quite dictatorial. He is basically looking to usurp parliament and push through his view, without the intererference of elected representatives.

I was thinking to use the word 'demagogue' to describe Johnson and - having checked the definition to be safe - it does seem quite apt:

a political leader who seeks support by appealing to the desires and prejudices of ordinary people rather than by using rational argument.

"a gifted demagogue with particular skill in manipulating the press"

RE: the ERG, I cannot see how they can be 'brought onside' in any way. They are fundamentalists who have all now subscribed to the view that Any Deal With the EU is a Bad Deal.

Further, there is no new deal to be had and the EU are not, and will not, be offering one. The extent to any change I can see would be UK backstop to NI backstop only, but even that might be complicated now.

Johnson and all the Brexit maniacs in the UK need to be honest with themselves and with each other and understand 'the backstop' is not a problem - how can it be? It is simply an insurance mechanism that ensures NI is protected. It can be replaced so soon as the UK find a better solution. It is not indefinite and is not permanent. Therefore it is intrinsically time-limited.

prunudo

J Mysterio wrote: »

Inspiring comments from Johnson here. The way he is so flippant and blase is astonishing.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1167420018260267010

Also how he refers to 'the parliamentarians'. They are somehow 'other' and distinct to what he is.

He's some spoofer, wonder what the EU make of his latest angle to try and get the deal across the line.

BluePlanet

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK.

At least you're admitting you are here talking your book.

Who has imposed this impending disruption on your business: UK or Ireland?

There are unfortunate lessons to be learned from this. Brexit is exactly why Ireland needs to de-couple from the UK as a trading partner.
They are a volatile neighbour willing to trample on anybody and everybody.

prawnsambo

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

Well if you don't revise your procurement decisions in over ten years, you're not really setting the standard for wise business decisions. Especially in light of what's happened in the last three years. You're not going to be able to get contractors from the UK after they brexit. Not unless they agree a FTA that includes services. Sourcing goods is one thing and can still continue (at a cost), but services would be a lot more complicated.

Imreoir2

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

I know other small business in much the same situation. The reality is that costs will rise, or suppliers will have to be changes, or most likely both. No one is pretending that this is not the case, we accept that this will happen, but it is vastly better than the alternative which would ruin our economey.

woohoo!!!

BarryD2 wrote: »

CelticRambler wrote: »

And why - in your opinion - should a small business importing from the UK still be in business if they haven't already taken steps to protect themselves against Brexit? Do you (or they) know that there are 26 other countries that can supply goods to the same standards?

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

Two things. There are many areas where a no deal will cause disruption, time and costs while the new reality sets in. In time, businesses and consumers will have adjusted to the new reality and those businesses that adapt will find they're taking business off those firms that do not adapt. There are some areas that due to our small market, will just see price rises until in the longer term, firms that adapt and drop costs will again take business from those that don't.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But ... now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

Well, hopefully that'll all work out OK for you. But in the event of a No-Deal Brexit, any of your competitors who did "go chasing off to continental Europe" and are getting the same service cheaper/quicker than you will be able to offer a better deal to their customers ... and yours.

It definitely sounds like you fall into the same camp as the Brexiters who think that the French are somehow more "foreign" than themselves, and that would explain how your opinion of all of this is distorted. I was born and reared in Dublin, currently live in France and in the last two weeks have been (half-heartedly) looking/tendering for work in Britain, France, Germany, Luxembourg and Switzerland. As far as the provision of services is concerned, none of those countries is significantly different to the other and there's no "chasing off" involved.

fash

ath262 wrote: »

based on the Sky interview and the ranting about rebels harming chances of a getting good deal with Brussels it appears to me that Boris (cummings?) cunning plan is to act crazy , and really will exit with no deal thinking that the EU will suddenly break all their principles, damage the single market and possibly the EU by doing so, and somehow change the WA... if so they hopelessly misunderstand how the EU functions. Not the first senior UK politician to be guilty of this

there was an interesting article on unherd suggesting that his MO is to do the unexpected:
https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/
Hard to believe the overall plan is not to go for a "nothing agreed" brexit though.

Jizique

Gintonious wrote: »

If Ireland left the EU to go along with Brexit (like some posters have suggested), I would gladly give up my passport and go with he Canadian one over it.

i am off to Germany in that scenario - would never stay here

prawnsambo

Jizique wrote: »

i am off to Germany in that scenario - would never stay here

I think the chances of Germany leaving first are higher*.


*On a scale of vanishingly small to tiny.

ath262

fash wrote: »

there was an interesting article on unherd suggesting that his MO is to do the unexpected:
https://unherd.com/2019/08/dominic-cummings-is-no-chicken/
Hard to believe the overall plan is not to go for a "nothing agreed" brexit though.

it's certainly an crazy looking plan to most people and hard to know if they dont see how bad a no-deal Brexit will hit or this is in fact genuine, but it's a little scary for the neighbours when the people involved are a prime-minister and an advisor..

"..If I’m right, Cummings has convinced Johnson to throw the Government’s steering wheel out of the window(*). By making it harder for Britain to change course from its headlong path towards no-deal, he thinks he can force the opponent to swerve.."

* in a game of chicken - but between equal opponents maybe in purely academic discussions on game theory, not between a Fiat 500 and a freight train

VinLieger

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

May i ask you why you are so loyal to doing business with the UK vs even looking into the potential for a better and or cheaper service provided in any the many EU countries you have access to thanks to the SM? Since its a service being provided that it sounds like proximity is not an issue so i really cant understand this.

I would also wager your attitude especially when it comes to a service being provided would very much be in the minority among business owners here.

Tell me how

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

Why do you think that all businesses will tolerate the idea of price hikes?

Prices withstanding, shipping times may impact on customer experience even more.

Call me Al

ath262 wrote: »

it's certainly an crazy looking plan to most people and hard to know if they dont see how bad a no-deal Brexit will hit or this is in fact genuine, but it's a little scary for the neighbours when the people involved are a prime-minister and an advisor..

"..If I’m right, Cummings has convinced Johnson to throw the Government’s steering wheel out of the window(*). By making it harder for Britain to change course from its headlong path towards no-deal, he thinks he can force the opponent to swerve.."

* in a game of chicken - but between equal opponents maybe in purely academic discussions on game theory, not between a Fiat 500 and a freight train

I heard an business interview last week on newstalk with an English financial news correspondent. This was a day or two after Germany figures were announced indicating its economy was about to slide into recession.
He contends that these figures mean that Germany will not allow 31/10 pass without a deal. Domestic politics will dictate it apparently.
Katya Adler hinted at this earlier:
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1167409517388341248?s=20

BluePlanet

The UK's National Farmers Union (NFU) wrote to Prime Minister Boris Johnson today (30 August) calling for import tariffs on agricultural products if Britain leaves the European Union without a trade deal.

British agricultural exports to the EU are expected to face tariffs under a no-deal scenario, but in March the government under then Prime Minister Theresa May announced a plan to eliminate tariffs on many imports, including some dairy products and agricultural products, to avoid a so-called hard border with Ireland.

"There is no indication that such an arrangement will be reciprocated by the EU and there is nothing in practical terms to stop this trade becoming an open gateway for all EU goods entering the UK duty free," NFU president Minette Batters said in a statement.

Export tariffs on agricultural goods would most likely lead to a surplus of domestic products on the UK market, she said, while at the same time lower or no tariffs on imports would put further downward pressure on domestic producer prices.
Source: https://thepigsite.com/news/2019/08/uk-farmers-call-for-import-tariffs-in-no-deal-brexit

It looks like someone is woke, but wow that sure took a long time.
Of course the next logical question is: how to levy such tariffs on EU agri-produce entering from RoI when the government has said their won't be a border?

Tell me how

Call me Al wrote: »

I heard an business interview last week on newstalk with an English financial news correspondent. This was a day or two after Germany figures were announced indicating its economy was about to slide into recession.
He contends that these figures mean that Germany will not allow 31/10 pass without a deal. Domestic politics will dictate it apparently.
Katya Adler hinted at this earlier:
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1167409517388341248?s=20

Katya's operating system is stuck in a loop. She has been saying this for as long as Johnson, Gove and Rees-Mogg have been without a scintilla of evidence that it is how the EU or Germany feel outside of their normal statements that they wish that there will be a deal.

It's gone beyond being a slightly different take on things with Katya, she seems to saying what she wants to happen rather than reporting accurately what is going on.

VinLieger

Call me Al wrote: »

I heard an business interview last week on newstalk with an English financial news correspondent. This was a day or two after Germany figures were announced indicating its economy was about to slide into recession.
He contends that these figures mean that Germany will not allow 31/10 pass without a deal. Domestic politics will dictate it apparently.
Katya Adler hinted at this earlier:
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1167409517388341248?s=20

Interesting but a brexit deal isn't going to stop the real driver of the looming recession which is trumps trade war also don;t trust anything Katya or Laura say they have been consistently wrong on everything regarding what the EU will do since this farce started. They are interested in talking about the drama and theatrics so will print anything that sounds exciting to them instead of reporting the actual news

10000maniacs

I think the EU should pull the plug on this extension if Johnsons prorogue goes ahead. They are within their rights to do so.
I am sure the EU want to get the inevitable over with.

BluePlanet

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think the EU should pull the plug on this extension if Johnsons prorogue goes ahead. They are within their rights to do so.
I am sure the EU want to get the inevitable over with.

Yes and no.
It's too entertaining watching Britain cannibalize itself.

Isn't there some Sun Tzu quote about not getting in the way of your opponent when they are damaging themselves?

10000maniacs

BluePlanet wrote: »

Yes and no.
It's too entertaining watching Britain cannibalize itself.

Isn't there some Sun Tzu quote about not getting in the way of your opponent when they are damaging themselves?

For one thing, it would deprive Johnson of his independence day, his VE day.

prawnsambo

VinLieger wrote: »

May i ask you why you are so loyal to doing business with the UK vs even looking into the potential for a better and or cheaper service provided in any the many EU countries you have access to thanks to the SM? Since its a service being provided that it sounds like proximity is not an issue so i really cant understand this.

I would also wager your attitude especially when it comes to a service being provided would very much be in the minority among business owners here.

From what he says, it sounds like a service that includes 'equipment' and therefore people travelling to provide the service. Now perhaps there are other services that can be done remotely but require 'equipment'; web-hosting would be one, but I doubt that's what he's talking about.

A service from the UK* that requires equipment and most likely people would be a very messy business indeed if there's a hard brexit. I'd be looking for a local supplier pdq.

*If the UK means NI, there may be scope post brexit.

BluePlanet

10000maniacs wrote: »

For one thing, it would deprive Johnson of his independence day, his VE day.

We have to let this play out.
Let them exit on 31/10, if they ask for an extension then tack-on some additional demands like another referendum before granting one.