Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ath262

BluePlanet wrote: »

...Isn't there some Sun Tzu quote about not getting in the way of your opponent when they are damaging themselves?

isn't that a principle of Judo ?

Tell me how

BluePlanet wrote: »

We have to let this play out.
Let them exit on 31/10, if they ask for an extension then tack-on some additional demands like another referendum before granting one.

What? just in case the resolve of Brexiteers is flagging, give them the motivation of the EU once again dictating to them what they must do.

Now, if the UK were to suggest they wanted to go back to the people then et them have it.

Strazdas

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think the EU should pull the plug on this extension if Johnsons prorogue goes ahead. They are within their rights to do so.
I am sure the EU want to get the inevitable over with.

The prorogation doesn't really change that much though in that it ends in mid October.

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

What? just in case the resolve of Brexiteers is flagging, give them the motivation of the EU once again dictating to them what they must do.

Now, if the UK were to suggest they wanted to go back to the people then et them have it.

They can't just request an extension without a reason for it. Apart from how that would look; "Eh, we know you told us not to waste the time, but we had the holliers and eh... then we kind of shut down parliament and eh...", pretty much no EU leader could justify giving them an extension for no good reason.

But absolutely not tell them the reason, just that they have to have one. And it had better be good.

declanflynn

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I'd say there's a good chance that farmers in NI, knowing they're up the creek without a paddle, that they'll be dumping their milk at DUP HQ and no amount of flegs or such palaver will distract their ire. The same applies to other sectors that are going to get absolutely hammered.

Yeah milk is a serious one and the **** will hit the fan 3 days into a hard Brexit

Tell me how

prawnsambo wrote: »

They can't just request an extension without a reason for it. Apart from how that would look; "Eh, we know you told us not to waste the time, but we had the holliers and eh... then we kind of shut down parliament and eh...", pretty much no EU leader could justify giving them an extension for no good reason.

But absolutely not tell them the reason, just that they have to have one. And it had better be good.

Two former Brexit secretary's said the deal they were a part of negotiating was a bad one.
Steve Barclay is saying that given the JIT requirements of manufacturers, a deal must be agreed with the EU quickly.
They used the last extension to change the PM after Tusk told them he hoped they'd use it wisely.
Johnson said he has prorogued in order to focus on domestic issues.

They don't give a toss what anything looks like.

10000maniacs

Strazdas wrote: »

The prorogation doesn't really change that much though in that it ends in mid October.

Stopping the extension would focus Johnsons mind and force him to show his real hand. Finding out whether he is lying about wanting a deal or not.
Waiting till October 31st won't necessarily do that.
BTW, I think we all know the answer to whether he is lying about wanting a deal or not.

Spanish Eyes

To me, and I could be wrong, all the theatrics and drama of proroguing and taking things down to the wire etc. are designed not for the good of the people, democracy or anything else, just pure arrogance and hubris on the part of Johnson et al believing that the pressure will be all on the EU now to capitulate.

Well if that happens I will not be very happy. Enter your own word for it, because I am afraid I might use VERY bad language at this point.

Do you think EU will back down or what? Probably answered already, I'm tired and haven't read all the posts yet.

briany

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think the EU should pull the plug on this extension if Johnsons prorogue goes ahead. They are within their rights to do so.
I am sure the EU want to get the inevitable over with.

I would say the EU will give the UK until 31/10, at the least. However, why the EU would do this is something I don't think that either end of the Brexit spectrum will ever be able to reconcile their views on. The Remain side will say it's because the EU wants to give the UK as much time as possible to see sense. The Leave side will say it's because the EU is absolutely sh**ing itself that it will lose the UK's spending power.

Water John

Cummings is the Pied Piper now, Johnson is the puppet and you know what the rest are.

Borderhopper

briany wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think the EU should pull the plug on this extension if Johnsons prorogue goes ahead. They are within their rights to do so.
I am sure the EU want to get the inevitable over with.

I would say the EU will give the UK until 31/10, at the least. However, why the EU would do this is something I don't think that either end of the Brexit spectrum will ever be able to reconcile their views on. The Remain side will say it's because the EU wants to give the UK as much time as possible to see sense. The Leave side will say it's because the EU is absolutely sh**ing itself that it will lose the UK's spending power.

Whereas in actual fact it is the deadline the EU have given and, as a rules based organisation it will stick to the rules. Imagine it as a 3 hour exam and the candidate is sitting, arms folded, with an hour to go. The exam isn’t ended early because it looks like the candidate is doing nothing, they wait until the allotted time is spent. Because that’s the rules.

prawnsambo

Tell me how wrote: »

Two former Brexit secretary's said the deal they were a part of negotiating was a bad one.
Steve Barclay is saying that given the JIT requirements of manufacturers, a deal must be agreed with the EU quickly.
They used the last extension to change the PM after Tusk told them he hoped they'd use it wisely.
Johnson said he has prorogued in order to focus on domestic issues.

They don't give a toss what anything looks like.

They do when it comes to asking for stuff. A lot of what they say is for internal consumption.

Kermit.de.frog

BarryD2 wrote: »

Well I run a small business and I source services from the UK. I'd much rather source these services in Ireland and used to up to about 10 years ago. But I found that the suppliers were unable to do the work anymore, they had decommissioned the equipment required. Why? In part, shrinking work due to the recession and part of that was government contracts from this state which were sent outside the country for 'cost reasons'.

So now I source same services in the UK and they have done a fine job at a reasonable price at reasonable speed since. I have absolutely no desire to go chasing off to continental Europe to find French or German or even Chinese companies to do same.

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

That's just one small tiny business, multiply this out.

I suspect that most of the people opining on here, don't have to actually think too much about the realities of all this?

So, because your small business sources everything from the UK we all have to get in line for a right old rogering and know our place for the Rees Moggs, Farages' and Mark Francois' of this world?

No.

Better idea would be to diversify your suppliers. You don't have to be supplied by UK suppliers.

Irish entrepreneurs need to get a way from that mentality.

ToBeFrank123

Even with a hard brexit it will take months if not years for customs posts to get up and running.

If the EU insists on us putting them up at the border we should just tell them to go jump.

Impossible to fully police a border anyways.

BluePlanet

10000maniacs wrote: »

Stopping the extension would focus Johnsons mind and force him to show his real hand. Finding out whether he is lying about wanting a deal or not.
Waiting till October 31st won't necessarily do that.
BTW, I think we all know the answer to whether he is lying about wanting a deal or not.

The EU can't stop the extension date, nor change it unilaterally.
It's part of the "Agreement to Extend Brexit".
The UK can exit earlier though, as soon as they ratify the WA:

In response, the European Council agrees to an extension to allow for the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement. Such an extension should last only as long as necessary and, in any event, no longer than 31 October 2019. If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by both parties before this date, the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month.

PeadarCo

ToBeFrank123 wrote:

If the EU insists on us putting them up at the border we should just tell them to go jump.

And if we do that we basically leave the CU and SM. Or more or less leave the EU. If Northern Ireland stays out of the Single market and customs Union a hard border is only a matter of time before a hard border goes up. Pretending otherwise is just copying the Brexiters delusion of having your cake and eating it.

BarryD2

VinLieger wrote: »

May i ask you why you are so loyal to doing business with the UK vs even looking into the potential for a better and or cheaper service provided in any the many EU countries you have access to thanks to the SM?

Why? For the same reasons that we've all 'happily' emigrated to the UK for decades/ centuries. We speak the same language, whether we like it or not and we have broadly similar cultures. We understand each other better and the UK is closer.

Generally happy to spend a week on holidays in France or Italy but no wish to start doing business there. Yes that's an insular attitude you may say but you know, we do live on an island. Better the divil you know etc etc.

On top of all this, we are increasingly lectured about our carbon responsibilities, so it's make more sense to do business in Ire and UK, rather than the European & global shipping solutions that people champion here.

prawnsambo

The brexit secretary ladies and gentlemen. The delusion is strong in this one.

First Up

Mod - play the ball not the man

BarryD2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So, because your small business sources everything from the UK we all have to get in line for a right old rogering and know our place for the Rees Moggs, Farages' and Mark Francois' of this world?

No.

Better idea would be to diversify your suppliers. You don't have to be supplied by UK suppliers.

Irish entrepreneurs need to get a way from that mentality.

That's a ridiculous extrapolation of what I said and you do your argument no favours. What skin have you got in the game? Do you care? Or is it all a great game to do down the Brits?

I'm an Irishman first and a EU citizen second. I'm glad we're in the EU, appreciative of the benefits and wish the UK were staying in too. But they're not as things stand and that's going cause serious grief here.

I don't think we can back down from the 'Backstop' now and our fate is pretty much outside our control. All we hope is that the moderate voices in Britain can get their act together and either have a general election and/or a confirmatory referendum.

Imreoir2

BluePlanet wrote: »

Yes and no.
It's too entertaining watching Britain cannibalize itself.

Isn't there some Sun Tzu quote about not getting in the way of your opponent when they are damaging themselves?

Sun Tzu probably had something similar but Napoleon said "Never interrupt the enemy when he is making a mistake".

Calina

BarryD2 wrote: »

Why? For the same reasons that we've all 'happily' emigrated to the UK for decades/ centuries. We speak the same language, whether we like it or not and we have broadly similar cultures. We understand each other better and the UK is closer.

Generally happy to spend a week on holidays in France or Italy but no wish to start doing business there. Yes that's an insular attitude you may say but you know, we do live on an island. Better the divil you know etc etc.

On top of all this, we are increasingly lectured about our carbon responsibilities, so it's make more sense to do business in Ire and UK, rather than the European & global shipping solutions that people champion here.

I was born in Limerick and grew up in Cork. I live in Luxembourg. I have lived in France, Germany, UK, Belgium and briefly, Finland.

The UK is the last one I would go back to.

Your closing lecture needs to be delivered to the UK. They think global shipping will replace their lost trade.

listermint

BarryD2 wrote: »

Why? For the same reasons that we've all 'happily' emigrated to the UK for decades/ centuries. We speak the same language, whether we like it or not and we have broadly similar cultures. We understand each other better and the UK is closer.

Generally happy to spend a week on holidays in France or Italy but no wish to start doing business there. Yes that's an insular attitude you may say but you know, we do live on an island. Better the divil you know etc etc.

On top of all this, we are increasingly lectured about our carbon responsibilities, so it's make more sense to do business in Ire and UK, rather than the European & global shipping solutions that people champion here.

Your business will fall flat on its arse.

The only person to blame in all this will be you.

Simple as this. If you think you'll get away with passing price increases onto your customers because you won't bother your hole looking in the single market for suppliers then you'll be severely shocked . Because someone else will and your customers will be off.

Someone earlier described Irish entrepreneur.... There's nothing entrepreneurial about the attitude you have.

Also you may not have considered but you should, your UK suppliers can go bust. This is plausible

reslfj

VinLieger wrote: »

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No Deal is utterly, instantly disastrous for the UK and therefore can't last long even if the UK are bonkers enough to try it.

There is no point in pissing everyone off, North and South of the border, by talking about checks and infrastructure when No Deal can't last more then a week or two.

I think you are being very naive, it will take a week or two at least for the full ramifications to be felt
....
they are starting from scratch, they cannot come cap in hand to the EU asking to get the WA as it wont exist anymore.

It will be disastrous for the UK but it will likely also take longer than two week for the full ramifications to be felt - much will depend on the effectiveness of unilateral mitigating actions the EU27 plan. The end result will be dire, but when it will show in full force - depends. There is much to say for not making any mitigating actions by the EU27 and get it over with ASAP.

The text of the WA will still exits after Oct 31 and the problems is should solve will only be worse and fast becoming much more visible.

The EU27 will simply copy the WA text - without the UK good stuff e.g. transition periods - give the copy a new name and present is to the UK as a non-negotiable prerequisite for any future talks to begin - any talks about trade and any about non trade.

The UK is by then a 3. country and the EU27 will just wait until the UK gets into 'begging mode' and again arrives in Brussels.
It could well be like year 1077 all over again.

Lars

PS!
The EU and its most excellent negotiator Michel Barnier has always been most diplomatic and given the Little-UK's negotiators multiple chances to save face.

But all unsuccessful diplomacy will come to an end - a not very pretty end, I'm afraid.

prawnsambo

Mod - play the ball not the man

Imreoir2

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Even with a hard brexit it will take months if not years for customs posts to get up and running.

If the EU insists on us putting them up at the border we should just tell them to go jump.

Impossible to fully police a border anyways.

We have a responsibility to protect the integrity of the single market, just like all the other members, tell the EU to go jump and we are destabelising the bedrock of our own economey and putting our place in the EU at risk.

Imreoir2

BarryD2 wrote: »

Why? For the same reasons that we've all 'happily' emigrated to the UK for decades/ centuries. We speak the same language, whether we like it or not and we have broadly similar cultures. We understand each other better and the UK is closer.

Generally happy to spend a week on holidays in France or Italy but no wish to start doing business there. Yes that's an insular attitude you may say but you know, we do live on an island. Better the divil you know etc etc.

On top of all this, we are increasingly lectured about our carbon responsibilities, so it's make more sense to do business in Ire and UK, rather than the European & global shipping solutions that people champion here.

If you would rather go out of business than deal with Europe, go right ahead. This is an entirely blinkered mentality if you ask me.

declanflynn

BarryD2 wrote: »

VinLieger wrote: »

May i ask you why you are so loyal to doing business with the UK vs even looking into the potential for a better and or cheaper service provided in any the many EU countries you have access to thanks to the SM?

Why? For the same reasons that we've all 'happily' emigrated to the UK for decades/ centuries. We speak the same language, whether we like it or not and we have broadly similar cultures. We understand each other better and the UK is closer.

Generally happy to spend a week on holidays in France or Italy but no wish to start doing business there. Yes that's an insular attitude you may say but you know, we do live on an island. Better the divil you know etc etc.

On top of all this, we are increasingly lectured about our carbon responsibilities, so it's make more sense to do business in Ire and UK, rather than the European & global shipping solutions that people champion here.

While the uk want to all their shipping to the US

declanflynn

BarryD2 wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

So, because your small business sources everything from the UK we all have to get in line for a right old rogering and know our place for the Rees Moggs, Farages' and Mark Francois' of this world?

No.

Better idea would be to diversify your suppliers. You don't have to be supplied by UK suppliers.

Irish entrepreneurs need to get a way from that mentality.

That's a ridiculous extrapolation of what I said and you do your argument no favours. What skin have you got in the game? Do you care? Or is it all a great game to do down the Brits?

I'm an Irishman first and a EU citizen second. I'm glad we're in the EU, appreciative of the benefits and wish the UK were staying in too. But they're not as things stand and that's going cause serious grief here.

I don't think we can back down from the 'Backstop' now and our fate is pretty much outside our control. All we hope is that the moderate voices in Britain can get their act together and either have a general election and/or a confirmatory referendum.

Your right no backing down

storker

BarryD2 wrote: »

So I'll stick with my UK supplier insofar as possible, it may mean that costs will rise and those costs will then be passed on in increased retail prices.

If your competitors can source from Europe at less extra cost, you may not have anyone left to pass those costs on to.