Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

First Up

prawnsambo wrote:

Well Bamford (of JCB fame) seems to think he'll get something from it. He's been paying Johnson among others to keep the momentum going.

Maybe he still nurses a grudge against the EU for hitting them with a hefty anti-trust fine some years ago but he'll have to explain it himself.

Akrasia

fash wrote: »

Was just wondering about the following: would it be possible for the UK to have a "backstop" limited to NI + "car factories" -designated as "free ports" since that has been a term used recently?
It could look more acceptable to the DUP that sections of GB were similarly subject and would it help with car manufacturing?

That’s called a trade deal. To negotiate a trade deal they need to accept the withdrawal agreement which includes the backstop as insurance against the UK trying to screw us over on the border

prawnsambo

First Up wrote: »

Maybe he still nurses a grudge against the EU for hitting them with a hefty anti-trust fine some years ago but he'll have to explain it himself.

Seems awfully like cutting off your nose to spite your face. I wonder has he insulated himself like Dyson has.

CelticRambler

BarryD2 wrote: »

an indisputable fact of life and history is that it is far more convenient for us to deal with UK suppliers and distributors where the same range of services is not available here. I dunno but I suspect that many smaller Irish businesses will seek ways to try and continue those relationships.

You said earlier that you used to deal with Irish providers until the global recession in 2008. What's to say that your UK suppliers will survive a Britain-only recession any better? And if the business was profitable for those Irish providers back in 2007, what's to stop it being so again for anyone who sets up now? Are you saying that even if there was a decent Irish supplier, you'd stick with a more expensive UK business "just because" ?

fash

Akrasia wrote: »

That’s called a trade deal. To negotiate a trade deal they need to accept the withdrawal agreement which includes the backstop as insurance against the UK trying to screw us over on the border

Well I am aware of that - on the slight chance that Boris were thinking of a deal, I'm just wondering what a modified WA could look like- assuming at least some of his current/previous statements are a set up to a final "take it or leave it" over which he can present as a win in the UK - given his previous statements.

fash

prawnsambo wrote: »

Seems awfully like cutting off your nose to spite your face. I wonder has he insulated himself like Dyson has.

Most of JCB's business is in third world countries building major infrastructure which requires earth moving apparently and relatively unaffected by tariffs

Call me Al

briany wrote: »

I know Theresa May said the last thing and very telling it was, too. Who said the other things?

One of them was reported on by the BBC. He didn't name the minister unfortunately..
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-politics-46528952
Crispin Blunt tweeted about holding Ireland hostage.

prawnsambo

CelticRambler wrote: »

You said earlier that you used to deal with Irish providers until the global recession in 2008. What's to say that your UK suppliers will survive a Britain-only recession any better? And if the business was profitable for those Irish providers back in 2007, what's to stop it being so again for anyone who sets up now? Are you saying that even if there was a decent Irish supplier, you'd stick with a more expensive UK business "just because" ?

I asked him that on two separate occasions. Got no reply. It makes no sense that a local contractor couldn't do it cheaper than an external one who has to ship all their gear over and have people on site staying in (at best) B&Bs. Unless of course they are from NI. Which is still a fair distance if the chap is based in Dublin as his handle seems to imply.

InTheShadows

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It's great to see pro democracy protesters on UK streets, at least some recognise that the country is now on a slippery slide into populist fascism

Anti democratic I think you'll find.

Spanish Eyes

Can't understand why Javid didn't resign when Cummings summarily sacked his SPAD.

He is an afterthought symbolic Muslim in the Cabinet in the eyes of Cummings anyway, albeit Chancellor, so now he may be cowed into doing what Cummings wants with the Exchequer.

I do realise that there has often been tension between no's 10 and 11, but honestly that kind of jackboot firing is not acceptable. I suppose the head of the Civil Service is next.

prawnsambo

As I said before, Cummings isn't the genius he's made out to be. All they've done is harden attitudes and I doubt they thought they'd have ongoing protests, days after they pulled their little prorogation stunt. Now you have Tory MPs like Rory Stewart openly saying they'll oppose the government and the opposition parties pretty close to unheard of agreement. And all these firings and threats to MPs just look like they're losing control. Smacks of desperation tbh.

is_that_so

beggars_bush wrote: »

Johnson has been quite shrewd though

Mention all the things people are worried about - crime, policing, education funding

They've found extra money for schools and next up will be the NHS

It's like they're trying to buy off the middle class voting opposition

You would imagine that to be the case but given the pedigree of recent PMs from the Con Party how much money would you put on him being successful at any of this.

mickoneill31

InTheShadows wrote: »

Anti democratic I think you'll find.

Everything is anti democratic these days apparently.

Strazdas

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I said before, Cummings isn't the genius he's made out to be. All they've done is harden attitudes and I doubt they thought they'd have ongoing protests, days after they pulled their little prorogation stunt. Now you have Tory MPs like Rory Stewart openly saying they'll oppose the government and the opposition parties pretty close to unheard of agreement. And all these firings and threats to MPs just look like they're losing control. Smacks of desperation tbh.

The guy is an egomaniac and nowhere near as intelligent as he seems to think he is. It will all end badly for him, an arrogant blowhard out of his depth.

Irish Praetorian

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Everything is anti democratic these days apparently.

Anti-Anti-Democratic I think you'll find XD

On a more serious note, Brexit does seem to be acting as, amongst other things, a wound in the UK media establishment which is permitting American style hyperbole and exaggeration to penetrate into British political discourse. I mean you look at some of the comment sections and you find Brits making comments like EUSSR or 'Brussels Dictatorship' in a way that is far more frequent than before the referendum.

amacca

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I said before, Cummings isn't the genius he's made out to be. All they've done is harden attitudes and I doubt they thought they'd have ongoing protests, days after they pulled their little prorogation stunt. Now you have Tory MPs like Rory Stewart openly saying they'll oppose the government and the opposition parties pretty close to unheard of agreement. And all these firings and threats to MPs just look like they're losing control. Smacks of desperation tbh.

perhaps I'm crediting good ole Boris with way too much cunning here I'm of the opinion that many of his actions so far are to provoke the type of reaction we've seen today ...... he needs that so he can row back on the do or die stuff .... and retain as many of the pro-brexit voters as possible while not delivering a Brexit. Its not brinksmanship with the EU, that battle was comprehensively lost almost before it began (as its such a moronic idea) its brinksmanship with misinformed brexit voters brainwashed by UK media for the past 40/50 years.

He's bringing it to a head and hoping to cling on to power as part of the process imo......

if I'm right you will see him soften his position even completely reverse it over the coming weeks in an attempt to get on the right side of this.

is_that_so

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Everything is anti democratic these days apparently.

Yeah especially things that annoy you!

prawnsambo

amacca wrote: »

perhaps I'm crediting good ole Boris with way too much cunning here I'm of the opinion that many of his actions so far are to provoke the type of reaction we've seen today ...... he needs that so he can row back on the do or die stuff .... and retain as many of the pro-brexit voters as possible while not delivering a Brexit. Its not brinksmanship with the EU, that battle was comprehensively lost almost before it began (as its such a moronic idea) its brinksmanship with misinformed brexit voters brainwashed by UK media for the past 40/50 years.

He's bringing it to a head and hoping to cling on to power as part of the process imo......

if I'm right you will see him soften his position even completely reverse it over the coming weeks in an attempt to get on the right side of this.

But his biggest problem, one that's not easily surmountable is that he doesn't control a majority in parliament (hence the little prorogue adventure). One is just not a majority in any real sense bar the mathematical one. So he has to have an election at some point, the earlier the better. I would have said that his brexity noises would help with taking the clothes off the BP. So if he rows back now, he's done with that cohort. But now he's losing Tory MPs, despite the threats and he's galvanised and united all the opposition. They're even saying Corbyn as interim PM is palatable.

He's screwed it up monumentally.

is_that_so

amacca wrote: »

perhaps I'm crediting good ole Boris with way too much cunning here I'm of the opinion that many of his actions so far are to provoke the type of reaction we've seen today ...... he needs that so he can row back on the do or die stuff .... and retain as many of the pro-brexit voters as possible while not delivering a Brexit. Its not brinksmanship with the EU, that battle was comprehensively lost almost before it began (as its such a moronic idea) its brinksmanship with misinformed brexit voters brainwashed by UK media for the past 40/50 years.

He's bringing it to a head and hoping to cling on to power as part of the process imo......

if I'm right you will see him soften his position even completely reverse it over the coming weeks in an attempt to get on the right side of this.

I think there are quite a few things at work now that he's stopped being Trump for a day or two.

-He thinks bypassing Parliament and any news channel that annoys him is a good plan.
-He's spending a lot of time "outmanoeuvring" his opponents, but they are coming right back at him.
-He wants to become a social media bot.
-He wants an election in which he will, of course, be triumphant
-He wants the option of a No Brexit. Who knows what he'll actually do?
-He wants to build up a stock of as many people to blame as possible
-He intends to spend his way out of any post-Brexit mess with the pensions of people expected to be born in 2050s!

ThePanjandrum

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

It's great to see pro democracy protesters on UK streets, at least some recognise that the country is now on a slippery slide into populist fascism

Well, that's interesting because the British Fascists support the idea of a united Europe and campaigned to stay in the European Community in 1975.

In Ireland the major Fascist Party was one of the three founders of Fine Gael, whose views on the EU we know and the National Party wants to remain in the EU.

So which side are the Fascists on?

is_that_so

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Well, that's interesting because the British Fascists support the idea of a united Europe and campaigned to stay in the European Community in 1975.

In Ireland the major Fascist Party was one of the three founders of Fine Gael, whose views on the EU we know and the National Party wants to remain in the EU.

So which side are the Fascists on?

EU support is at about 90% in Ireland. Does that make us all fascists?

amacca

prawnsambo wrote: »

But his biggest problem, one that's not easily surmountable is that he doesn't control a majority in parliament (hence the little prorogue adventure). One is just not a majority in any real sense bar the mathematical one. So he has to have an election at some point, the earlier the better. I would have said that his brexity noises would help with taking the clothes off the BP. So if he rows back now, he's done with that cohort. But now he's losing Tory MPs, despite the threats and he's galvanised and united all the opposition. They're even saying Corbyn as interim PM is palatable.

He's screwed it up monumentally.

Can you see no way for him to cling on to power and while claiming he wanted to deliver brexit but it simply wasn't possible. (shift blame)

He's the incumbent after all and it was always going to be a fine line to tread becoming PM now, a softening of stance to get any of his own that have strayed back onside....they don't want to vote against their own PM (and it could cost them their position - with no guarantee of getting it back given the even greater ****show this could turn out to be might let him keep that majority and perhaps get support from other quarters if it looks like he would be willing to listen and avert a no deal.........then he sells the some of the brexit crowd on a deal thats essentially the WA with some meaningless bells and whistles added on (maybe just meaningless promises about sovereignty from the man himself)

If I'm incorrect then I suppose he has screwed it up monumentally but I was of the opinion that like him or not he's supremely talented at feathering his own nest and hanging on to said nest.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1167719775230922752?s=20
Upping the stakes to drive them into fearful Tory hearts.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7413615/Boris-Johnson-threatens-SACK-Tory-Remainer-MPs-vote-block-No-Deal.html

Boris has a majority of ONE, and that's with DUP support. It's a house of cards.

And he's threatening to fire MPs which technically speaking means he would no longer be able to command a majority.

Except the loophole is that he's not firing them now, just at the next election. And it's a real threat because 60% of seats are safe thanks to FPTP. And the best bit is they can use this threat again and again.



Unless an MP or two defects or has already decided they won't stand again.

Enzokk

fash wrote: »

There were some amusing posts by Dmitry Grozoubinski on vague “instructions” - such as the Brexit referendum
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1167321318254993408

I found his reply to this tweet great,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1167327051654692867?s=20

'I'm sorry, the people knew we planned to nationalise Guido and turn it into a government funded art zine for lesbian auto worker union members when they voted for, "Britain to be a bit nicer. "'

As for the plan, I was listening to Remainiacs podcast and Hugo Rifkind was thinking the idea is to bring back a deal from the EU and have a vote on it. Those saying they want to stop no-deal would then be compelled to vote for it because it would be either this deal or no-deal.

I see a couple of flaws with this plan. Firstly it assumes that he can come back with a deal that has a compromise better than the backstop. Then he will have to navigate the numbers in the HoC and the ERG and DUP, which we should remember doesn't like the backstop at all. If the plan is to get enough Labour support, well it would be hard for Labour to back the deal seeing that it will be a harder Brexit deal than May's, Johnson isn't likely to come back with a softer option, so there should be no support on that side.

The other problem is also that his plans could be ruined by parliament if they take control of the agenda and take back control themselves. I am still unclear what he actually wants and what the plan is. I see Johnson in a tighter spot than May, seeing that he has trashed the backstop and still has the same red lines. At least with May she had the WA that she negotiated.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Well, that's interesting because the British Fascists support the idea of a united Europe and campaigned to stay in the European Community in 1975.

In Ireland the major Fascist Party was one of the three founders of Fine Gael, whose views on the EU we know and the National Party wants to remain in the EU.

So which side are the Fascists on?

This is objectively funny. Do we start talking about Oswald Mosley now? Is this some sort of Godwin's law with bit players for the main part?

ThePanjandrum

is_that_so wrote: »

EU support is at about 90% in Ireland. Does that make us all fascists?

I'm commenting on the use of Fascist by another poster. People use these terms without realising that attempting to demonise others in this way sometimes means that reality redounds on them.

prawnsambo

Enzokk wrote: »

As for the plan, I was listening to Remainiacs podcast and Hugo Rifkind was thinking the idea is to bring back a deal from the EU and have a vote on it. Those saying they want to stop no-deal would then be compelled to vote for it because it would be either this deal or no-deal.

I see a couple of flaws with this plan. Firstly it assumes that he can come back with a deal that has a compromise better than the backstop. Then he will have to navigate the numbers in the HoC and the ERG and DUP, which we should remember doesn't like the backstop at all. If the plan is to get enough Labour support, well it would be hard for Labour to back the deal seeing that it will be a harder Brexit deal than May's, Johnson isn't likely to come back with a softer option, so there should be no support on that side.

The other problem is also that his plans could be ruined by parliament if they take control of the agenda and take back control themselves. I am still unclear what he actually wants and what the plan is. I see Johnson in a tighter spot than May, seeing that he has trashed the backstop and still has the same red lines. At least with May she had the WA that she negotiated.

That's what I thought his plan was. And the prorogue ending on 14th October made it close enough to b-day 3 to put the fear of hard brexit in parliament and give them a Hobson's choice. So he gets his WA (NI only backstop) through and can triumphantly claim to have delivered brexit.


Except he's gone and overplayed his hand; Amusing, since this is what the Telegraph and their ilk have accused Leo Varadkar of. The meeting of the opposition parties may have panicked him into it, but now it's biting him on the arse. Matters could be taken out of his hands now, with Rory Stewart saying there'd probably be a dozen Tory backbenchers prepared to vote against him.



The panic is showing with the firings and threats to MPs. I suspect that a softer approach may be adopted now to try and win them back, but it may be too late.

Leroy42

What can Johnson offer to the EU to promise that any compromise on their part would lead to a deal definitely getting approved?

He has just shown starkly that he fears the HoC and has no confidence in his ability to control it.

The EU already gave a massive compromise to TM and it was met with little more than a shrug and if anything emboldened the Brexiteers to feel they had more to get.

So they run the real risk of offering something and only being seen as a soft touch, both by the UK and in any future trade negotiations (such as with the US).

This is all based on the UK plan of the EU reopening the WA.

reslfj

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well Bamford (of JCB fame) seems to think he'll get something from it. He's been paying Johnson among others to keep the momentum going.

Lord Bamford/JBC was hit by a £22mill EU anti competition fine. He may be angry, but he really shouldn't be, as breaking competition laws is a major offence in the EU and even more so in the US.

Lars

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/dec/22/6

ThePanjandrum

is_that_so wrote: »

EU support is at about 90% in Ireland. Does that make us all fascists?

I'm commenting on the use of Fascist by another poster. People use these terms without realising that attempting to demonise others in this way sometimes means that reality redounds on them.