Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum

prawnsambo wrote: »

This is objectively funny. Do we start talking about Oswald Mosley now? Is this some sort of Godwin's law with bit players for the main part?

We could do. Perhaps we could start with this https://www.oswaldmosley.com/europe-a-nation/

ThePanjandrum

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

‘Hard as it is to say now.. I look forward to a United States of Europe, in which the barriers between the nations will be greatly minimised and unrestricted travel will be possible.’ - Churchill

By your perverse brexiter logic Churchill was a fascist?

What would Churchill say about preventing democratic people's representatives from discussing the biggest (self imposed) problem faced by the country in 70 years?

The mask of brexiters has fallen off, what is beneath is no different to what we seen from righwing populist of history. Quacks like a duck, walks like a duck, UK for sure have duck for a prime minister, an unelected duck at that.

That would be a lapse in logic. Your argument form is basically if A then B. B, therefore A.

This same argument form could be used in this way. If I am lesbian then I am human. I am human, therefore I am a lesbian. The opening sentence is true no matter who says it, but if the soeaker is a straight woman or a man, the conclusion is false.

By the way, name an elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

An Ciarraioch

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We could do. Perhaps we could start with this https://www.oswaldmosley.com/europe-a-nation/

He had the same idea as Salvini and Le Pen attempted to implement this May - subvert European institutions from within by building a transcontinental grouping of the far-right, with Italian fascists and neo-Nazis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Party_of_Europe

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

I found his reply to this tweet great,

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1167327051654692867?s=20

'I'm sorry, the people knew we planned to nationalise Guido and turn it into a government funded art zine for lesbian auto worker union members when they voted for, "Britain to be a bit nicer. "'

As for the plan, I was listening to Remainiacs podcast and Hugo Rifkind was thinking the idea is to bring back a deal from the EU and have a vote on it. Those saying they want to stop no-deal would then be compelled to vote for it because it would be either this deal or no-deal.

I see a couple of flaws with this plan. Firstly it assumes that he can come back with a deal that has a compromise better than the backstop. Then he will have to navigate the numbers in the HoC and the ERG and DUP, which we should remember doesn't like the backstop at all. If the plan is to get enough Labour support, well it would be hard for Labour to back the deal seeing that it will be a harder Brexit deal than May's, Johnson isn't likely to come back with a softer option, so there should be no support on that side.

The other problem is also that his plans could be ruined by parliament if they take control of the agenda and take back control themselves. I am still unclear what he actually wants and what the plan is. I see Johnson in a tighter spot than May, seeing that he has trashed the backstop and still has the same red lines. At least with May she had the WA that she negotiated.

That's why I was wondering about a "NI + Free port around car factory backstop" brexit as a final offer.
Picks up on the themes of: free ports, recent Stephen Barclay tweet about "hey how do we ensure frictionless trade in a nothing agreed brexit" and gets rid of NI but not in an obviously the same way manner - so room to spin.

ThePanjandrum

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

I am holding a mirror up to continuing hypocrisy and rising authoritarianism of brexiters.

If it makes you uncomfortable perhaps take a moment to reflect why that is so.

UK is going down a dark path with some very uncomfortable parallels from history.

If you were bothered about totalitarianism then it is Bercow who you would object to. Johnson has used a perfectly normal and constitutional device, Bercow has ignored the constitution (although he knows it very well) and given himself unconstitutional powers which he uses in a partial way. He subverts the whole role of the speaker. He is permitted to do this because his actions benefit Remainers.

Incidentally, as Dicey would tell you, the only legitimacy of an MP comes from their representation of the majority, something which Remainer MPs have ignored.

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

We could do. Perhaps we could start with this https://www.oswaldmosley.com/europe-a-nation/

I am certainly not going to read the dribblings of that nutcase. But just from the title, it's clearly not Europe as an alliance of nations.

ThePanjandrum

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

He had the same idea as Salvini and Le Pen attempted to implement this May - subvert European institutions from within by building a transcontinental grouping of the far-right, with Italian fascists and neo-Nazis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Party_of_Europe

Subvert is a loaded term but he would have been happy to work through the EC. It's interesting to look at the Venice Declaration and compare it with the trajectory of the EU, on many of these points I would say that there is little difference.

First Up

Akrasia wrote:

That’s called a trade deal. To negotiate a trade deal they need to accept the withdrawal agreement which includes the backstop as insurance against the UK trying to screw us over on the border

No trade "deal" would allow specific industries to be exempt from customs procedures. A "free zone" or "export processing zone" would need secure geographic boundaries and could only be used for items entering and leaving UK jurisdiction. That effectively means right beside a port. Anything from the zone entering from orbto the UK proper would undergo customs procedures.

If the UK can move the entire auto industry to a secure controlled area it just might help it survive with its current JIT supply chains for re-export.

I wouldn't put money on it.

Igotadose

First Up wrote: »

No trade "deal" would allow specific industries to be exempt from customs procedures. A "free zone" or "export processing zone" would need secure geographic boundaries and could only be used for items entering and leaving UK jurisdiction. That effectively means right beside a port. Anything from the zone entering from orbto the UK proper would undergo customs procedures.

If the UK can move the entire auto industry to a secure controlled area it just might help it survive with its current JIT supply chains for re-export.

I wouldn't put money on it.

This shower of clowns negotiating a trade deal? Srsly? Having to resort to procedural skulduggery to, effectively, succeed at doing *nothing* for the last 3 years, and they're going to negotiate a trade deal? Talk about opportunities for eating popcorn! The posh boys like Raab will have their pockets, underwear and dentures swiped and won't even realize it.

ThePanjandrum

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

If you go to the U.S. Holocaust Museum, you can see a sign hanging there that tells you what to look for if you’re worried that your country may be slipping into fascism

1. Powerful and continuing nationalism
2. Disdain for human rights
3. Identification of enemies as a unifying cause
4. Rampant sexism
5. Controlled mass media
6. Obsession with national security
7. Religion and government intertwined
8. Corporate power protected
9. Labor power suppressed
10. Disdain for intellectual and the arts
11. Obsession with crime and punishment
12. Rampant cronyism and corruption

Currently brexiters tick most of these

Source: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2017/01/31/the-12-early-warning-signs-of-fascism/

That's basically Lawrence (or Laurence) Britt's "Fourteen Characteristics of Fascism" from 2003 with items 4 and 14 removed. The Museum had the full version but only on a poster which it sold at one time in its shop.

Despite what you may be told he was not a doctor nor a political scientist and had no particular expertise in the subject. The list is just a collecton of left wing shibboleths.

Spanish Eyes

I think BJ and Cummings will be ridiculed in time to come. What the F do they really want?

The EU to capitulate and do everything they want, or leave on WTO terms?

Game of chicken going on here and I sincerely hope that EU just says feck off.

But at the end of the day I often wonder if NO DEAL is such a great thing, why have they not gone already?

Can anyone answer me that.

prawnsambo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think BJ and Cummings will be ridiculed in time to come. What the F do they really want?

The EU to capitulate and do everything they want, or leave on WTO terms?

Game of chicken going on here and I sincerely hope that EU just says feck off.

But at the end of the day I often wonder if NO DEAL is such a great thing, why have they not gone already?

Can anyone answer me that.

Interesting you should mention that. Read an article about Cummings and hs love affair with game theory. The ultimate way to win a game of chicken (in theory) is to ostentatiously throw your steering wheel out of the window. So the steering wheel is out the window, but he's playing chicken with an express train.

Bit cynical

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

But at the end of the day I often wonder if NO DEAL is such a great thing, why have they not gone already?

Can anyone answer me that.

They have to stay until the agreed date.

Bit cynical

Bit cynical wrote: »

They have to stay until the agreed date.

As far as I know, this is the deadline, the final leaving date.
They can leave before if they choose to do so.

Capt'n Midnight

Just a reminder that Queen's speech could be delayed if there are any last minute changes because the ink takes a week to dry.

Really.



https://www.irishnews.com/magazine/daily/2017/06/12/news/wait-is-the-queen-s-speech-actually-being-delayed-because-the-ink-takes-a-week-to-dry-on-goatskin-parchment--1052908/

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

They have to stay until the agreed date.

Well they could achieve the same thing if they'd prorogued parliament until November 1st. That would have locked them in to no deal.

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's basically Lawrence (or Laurence) Britt's "Fourteen Characteristics of Fascism" from 2003 with items 4 and 14 removed. The Museum had the full version but only on a poster which it sold at one time in its shop.

Despite what you may be told he was not a doctor nor a political scientist and had no particular expertise in the subject. The list is just a collecton of left wing shibboleths.

Isolationism and withdrawing from treaties and trading blocs seems a most peculiar route for any modern democracy to go down. You would imagine that most countries would regard this as a nuclear option (ie. a unilateral action for purely political reasons that risks doing massive damage to the economy and the citizens) and yet the 17m Leave voters and the Brexit politicians are doing this as if they haven't a care in the world. It would suggest British politics has become radicalised and quite abnormal.

briany

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think BJ and Cummings will be ridiculed in time to come. What the F do they really want?

The EU to capitulate and do everything they want, or leave on WTO terms?

Game of chicken going on here and I sincerely hope that EU just says feck off.

But at the end of the day I often wonder if NO DEAL is such a great thing, why have they not gone already?

Can anyone answer me that.

The UK needs all the time it can get to prepare for no-deal. That's number one.

The political fallout from no-deal is likely to be large and lasting. The UK government wishes to avoid being seen as the instigators as much as they possibly can. To this end, they will pursue the 'our friends and partners in Europe' 'til the end, while not actually doing anything. They also want to give time for parliamentary scrutiny, but the very minimum they possibly can.

Jumping off the cliff only makes the fall more painful.

Bit cynical

Deleted User wrote: »

As far as I know, this is the deadline, the final leaving date.
They can leave before if they choose to do so.

I might be wrong with regard to it being in an extension period but under the A50 article, they can leave before the end of the agreed period if they secure agreement and give a months notice.

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

Well they could achieve the same thing if they'd prorogued parliament until November 1st. That would have locked them in to no deal.

I think Johnson wanted a longer prorogation but this was the maximum the monarch agreed to.

prawnsambo

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think Johnson wanted a longer prorogation but this was the maximum the monarch agreed to.

I think that's spin. Because it could only have one source.

BluePlanet

Deleted User wrote: »

As far as I know, this is the deadline, the final leaving date.
They can leave before if they choose to do so.

They can leave after they ratify the Withdrawal Agreement.
Otherwise it's 31/10.

Strazdas

Barnier has written an article for the Telegraph saying that the backstop remains under all circumstances and the WA must be ratified without changes to it :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/31/will-start-work-alternative-arrangements-current-deal-ratified/

Spanish Eyes

Macron is in power now. Germany can go to pot.

Well that is what he seems to be trying to say, to me anyway! I am sure Germany is in favour but Merkel may not be prepared to say it out loud. And who is her sub when she goes, haven't a clue, so there we go.

To be fair I can understand the worry of some that France and Germany are actually running the show. They need to stop that. But everyone knows it anyway.

Kermit.de.frog

Strazdas wrote: »

Barnier has written an article for the Telegraph saying that the backstop remains under all circumstances and the WA must be ratified without changes to it :

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/08/31/will-start-work-alternative-arrangements-current-deal-ratified/

Critical article.

He would only put an opinion piece in the Telegraph to the get the message through to the Brexiters.

Sam Russell

First Up wrote: »

No trade "deal" would allow specific industries to be exempt from customs procedures. A "free zone" or "export processing zone" would need secure geographic boundaries and could only be used for items entering and leaving UK jurisdiction. That effectively means right beside a port. Anything from the zone entering from orbto the UK proper would undergo customs procedures.

If the UK can move the entire auto industry to a secure controlled area it just might help it survive with its current JIT supply chains for re-export.

I wouldn't put money on it.

'Free trade zones' would not help the motor assembly business because of CoO rules. The resulting cars would still attract full tariffs on entry into the EU, and why would somebody buy a Nissan from Sunderland with a 10% tariff when the same model built in Japan would come in with zero tariff?

NI as a 'Free trade Zone' would be a nonsense. How can dairy farming, or killing pigs be 'free trade'. Perhaps a unicorn farm might work, but even that would be far fetched.

BarryD2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Are you saying that even if there was a decent Irish supplier, you'd stick with a more expensive UK business "just because" ?

Of course, I always support other Irish businesses where I can, even if sometimes more expensive. Just because it's better to deal local. But as mentioned a while back, the service / equipment required for some of my work is no longer available here. My UK company does a good job, I understand them, they understand my requirements. Why would I bother (unless obliged) to go looking for some equivalent German or Italian equivalent? The UK are more local that Germany or Italy or China. That's the practical reality.

listermint

BarryD2 wrote: »

Of course, I always support other Irish businesses where I can, even if sometimes more expensive. Just because it's better to deal local. But as mentioned a while back, the service / equipment required for some of my work is no longer available here. My UK company does a good job, I understand them, they understand my requirements. Why would I bother (unless obliged) to go looking for some equivalent German or Italian equivalent? The UK are more local that Germany or Italy or China. That's the practical reality.

Perhaps to save your business and keep your customers..

Or you could maintain this weird affiliation to some companies you've been using a few years just because they are in the UK.

Kermit.de.frog

Barnier - in his article in the Telegraph tomorrow - also says there will be no special mini deals with the UK in a no deal Brexit.


So what he has said is negotiations are over, the deal is there and it is time to decide whether it is a deal or not.

Very direct article.

Stop moaning ffs

‪in tomorrow’s main Tory propaganda outlet the Telegraph

EU Chief Negotiator @MichelBarnier writing in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph:‬

‪The backstop “is not about changing the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. That is none of the EU’s business” “I am not optimistic about avoiding a “no deal” scenario but I remain determined to explore all avenues that the UK government will present that are compatible with the Withdrawal Agreement.” “We should stop kicking the can down the road. Uncertainty has festered for far too long in the UK, in particular in Northern Ireland, as well as in Ireland and all other EU countries, for that matter.”The UK has now come to a moment of truth & it must decide if it leaves the EU with or without an agreement. If it chooses the latter, it means that there’ll be no transition period & no so-called “mini-deals”, as the EU will only act to protect its own interests‬

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167903282037063680