Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

devnull

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Every single interview with a government minister should now lead with this question. This cannot be ignored

Won't happen as the Tories are now setting pre-conditions on many of their MPs taking party in any television interviews on the advice of Cummings. Adam Boulton revealed this last week and said Sky News won't carry out interviews with anyone who sets pre-conditions.

Believed that one of the pre-conditions is having advance notices of what the questions are and being able to select which questions are and are not asked otherwise they will not take part in interviews most of the time.

If that's the case then the TV stations should start doorstepping politicians and following them around to hold them to account. I don't believe in harassing politicians but the media needs to hold them to account if they are not willing to take part in proper unrestricted interviews.

Zubeneschamali

jochenstacker wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfjgd7FTwpY

For those who don't watch, he makes several points.


1) Gordon Brown might have been spoofing or wrong about the EU making an offer to extend A50 next week


2) BUT Boris immediately threatening to deselect any Tory MP that votes for an extension means HE believes a vote on an extension is coming.


3) If the EU offer an extension and Parliament votes to accept it, they don't need Boris to physically ask for it - Parliament is sovereign, if they vote for it, it happens no matter what Boris says.


4) If an extension happens and Boris ejects even 2 rebels from the party, he loses his majority.


5) If an election is called, the Brexit party will take a chunk out of the Tories for failing to deliver Brexit.

Strazdas

20silkcut wrote: »

But the polls consistently show it nearer to 40% of the population. Maybe there is something I’m misunderstanding.

It seems to be only pro-Brexit opinion polls with loaded questions coming up with the 40% figure. The real number of hardcore No Deal fans appears to be lower, maybe 25% at most.

is_that_so

Strazdas wrote: »

Legally, the ballot paper was meaningless and may as well have been written by a six year old in crayon.

The ballot paper didn't even specify what 'the European Union' was. Was it the 28 member political union? Did it include membership of the Single Market or Customs Union?

Even the right wing press in autumn 2016 were speculating that Britain might apply for SMCU membership, meaning nobody actually knows what the UK voted to leave in any definitive sense.

Sure it was advisory and of no real legal standing but what government was ever going to go against it.

ilovesmybrick

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I posted this in the Brexit thread in the CA forum just now...

Here you go. He starts 25 minutes in.

Edit: he wants the EU to "Come to heel". Christ almighty some of these guys are on another planet.

Igotadose

Any potential problems due to no Parliament and the Bahamas getting nailed by Hurricane Dorian? Does Bojo have to call out the mighty frigates of her Navy to relieve their poor beleaguered colony?

Strazdas

is_that_so wrote: »

Sure it was advisory and of no real legal standing but what government was ever going to go against it.

But the problem is the "instruction" to the government was so vague and ambiguous that nobody can even agree on what was voted for - to the point where the Bexiteers can confidently claim the 17m voted for No Deal.

It was never intended to be implemented. A political stunt which backfired in a huge way. Cameron underestimated the dark forces who would hijack the result if it went against the Govt - the worst people in British society.

Water John

The pressure is being ramped up. Barnier's article in The Telegraph was very clear. It is now followed up by Coveney:

'
“There isn’t a single EU member state putting pressure on Ireland to move away from that position, despite the fact that the UK has spoken to all of them and used all of the persuasion that they can muster to actually move countries away from that position,” he said.

He explained that dropping the backstop now just to deliver a UK domestic agenda would just mean storing up problems in Ireland for decades.

“I’m not going to pretend to people that we can do that for political convenience now to get a deal, and then find that Irish politics is dominated by the border issue indefinitely into the future. We’re not doing that,” he said.

“That is essentially transferring a problem that has been created by Brexit, by a decision by the UK, and transferring it to Ireland on a permanent basis, post-Brexit,” he said. Guardian.

Leaving MPs in no doubt.

Igotadose

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Here you go. He starts 25 minutes in.

Edit: he wants the EU to "Come to heel". Christ almighty some of these guys are on another planet.

Begging Ireland to be his 'honest broker' is so pathetic. UK wants someone else to fix their mess for them.

And he had the nerve to mention Cromwell. "The backstop's unacceptable because we can't exit it unilaterally." He was honest enough to say he doesn't know what's going to happen.

Actually a good job by the panelists, when dealing with a blinkered liar like this guy. Not Marian, probably why.

PeadarCo

ath262 wrote:

from Sunday Telegraph, Suella Braverman of the 'Alternative Arrangements Commission' aka the magical Unicorn Factory, is still pushing ideas for replacing the backstop already rejected during the original negotiations with the EU. Including risking our single market status with some sort of 'all-island regulatory area'

This is an issue for Johnson. His own Brexit supporters are undermining him. It's one thing saying you need to get rid of the backstop, however it's another thing when his own supporters see that as just the start. It destroys any chance of the backstop going because the everyone knows a bigger change is desired which suits no one. I know Johnson has complained about remainers making a deal harder. However it says a lot when he can't even keep his own side on message.

SeaBreezes

PeadarCo wrote: »

This is an issue for Johnson. His own Brexit supporters are undermining him. It's one thing saying you need to get rid of the backstop, however it's another thing when his own supporters see that as just the start. It destroys any chance of the backstop going because the everyone knows a bigger change is desired which suits no one. I know Johnson has complained about remainers making a deal harder. However it says a lot when he can't even keep his own side on message.

I dunno, Ireland is the uks fifth largest trading partner and the first of those five it makes a profit on. I can see why it is important to the UK to try and keep us as trading partners we however Like being protected by EU standards.

trellheim

The backstop exists until better alternative arrangements are agreed to by both sides.

It is specifically written into the WA that both sides wish to find an alternative and will work to do so.

****************************

My view today : Why has Johnson NOT said "I can get a deal if Backstop is removed, I have the numbers to get a ratification through" .

-> All the EU does if this is not clear "well if its not the backstop itll be something else" ....

Now, Johnson must know this .... so therefore why has he not said it
*******************************

jochenstacker

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

For those who don't watch, he makes several points.


1) Gordon Brown might have been spoofing or wrong about the EU making an offer to extend A50 next week


2) BUT Boris immediately threatening to deselect any Tory MP that votes for an extension means HE believes a vote on an extension is coming.


3) If the EU offer an extension and Parliament votes to accept it, they don't need Boris to physically ask for it - Parliament is sovereign, if they vote for it, it happens no matter what Boris says.


4) If an extension happens and Boris ejects even 2 rebels from the party, he loses his majority.


5) If an election is called, the Brexit party will take a chunk out of the Tories for failing to deliver Brexit.

It's a very long shot and I haven't heard anything about it on German media, so I'm sceptical.
It just would be too funny.
Or maybe it got buried, AfD just took 25% in Sachsen and Brandenburg, bit of a gloomy atmosphere here.

lawred2

Next thing for the chop is the CTA no doubt. I don't believe that anything is sacrosanct for this lot any more.

PropJoe10

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Here you go. He starts 25 minutes in.

Edit: he wants the EU to "Come to heel". Christ almighty some of these guys are on another planet.

Is that Andrew Bridgen? He's absolutely shocking. Still living in British Empire land.

lawred2

The undemocratic CTA. Sure who voted for that?

trellheim

The latest wheeze : ( off Darren Grimes' twitter)

Assuming an A50 extension request forced through the Parliament, this will force Boris to ask for an extension request.

Right ... everyone listening at the back ?

THEN , as the EU28 ( !) must all agree to it, he will refuse .....

I swear to fk

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_


( yes I know I shouldnt read Darren Grimes but know your enemy and all that )

briany

trellheim wrote: »

The latest wheeze : ( off Darren Grimes' twitter)

Assuming an A50 extension request forced through the Parliament, this will force Boris to ask for an extension request.

Right ... everyone listening at the back ?

THEN , as the EU28 ( !) must all agree to it, he will refuse .....

I swear to fk

https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_


( yes I know I shouldnt read Darren Grimes but know your enemy and all that )

In that case, Boris should just stand up and tell parliament, "I don't care what you voted for."

is_that_so

lawred2 wrote: »

Next thing for the chop is the CTA no doubt. I don't believe that anything is sacrosanct for this lot any more.

It actually originally goes back to the 1920s, it's reciprocal, so that's very doubtful. Johnson has said it will not change. A memorandum of understanding was signed in May this year.

L1011

is_that_so wrote: »

It actually originally goes back to the 1920s, it's reciprocal, so that's very doubtful. Johnson has said it will not change. A memorandum of understanding was signed in May this year.

The current thing of referring to "May's no mandate government", forgetting that Johnson has even less of a mandate, can and will be used to renege on that sort of agreement

lawred2

is_that_so wrote: »

It actually originally goes back to the 1920s, it's reciprocal, so that's very doubtful. Johnson has said it will not change. A memorandum of understanding was signed in May this year.

Johnson said it will not change

Right so..

VinLieger

I asked the question a few days ago when it seemed somewhat mote outlandish but now seriously what happens if they pass an extension vote or something else he doesnt like but he simply refuses to act on it?

is_that_so

lawred2 wrote: »

Johnson said it will not change

Right so..

I think it's safe on the grounds that he really doesn't need any more battles to fight and that it was something they agreed not the EU. It's not the same "foreigner" issue and we're a more "acceptable" one. Unwinding it would upset 100K people here never mind a much larger number in the UK.

ath262

from Sky News (also mentioned on C4 News) PM cancels Monday meeting with Brexit 'Gaukeward squad'

the excuse being given is a "diary clash", this meeting was supposed to reassure the rebels on progress on a deal with EU

CelticRambler

Heyyyy - no deal, no worries! The UK government is about to embark on a £100m publicity campaign. Free mugs and t-shirts for everyone.

£100 million is an awful lot to spend on new bolts for those stable doors ... :rolleyes:

BorneTobyWilde

If there was a General Erection surely more people would vote for the parties that campaign to Remain? It's just that they would vote partly for Lib Dems, Labour, and other remain parties. The Brexit Party would win a lot of seats, more than any individual Remain Party, but not as many as the combined Remain Parties .

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

lawred2

CelticRambler wrote: »

Heyyyy - no deal, no worries! The UK government is about to embark on a £100m publicity campaign. Free mugs and t-shirts for everyone.

£100 million is an awful lot to spend on new bolts for those stable doors ... :rolleyes:

How much is left of that 350m per week for the NHS?

A lot of juicy contracts being drawn up with no oversight whatsoever as far as I can tell.

PropJoe10

ath262 wrote: »

from Sky News (also mentioned on C4 News) PM cancels Monday meeting with Brexit 'Gaukeward squad'

the excuse being given is a "diary clash", this meeting was supposed to reassure the rebels on progress on a deal with EU

I can only assume that this is because Boris doesn't have any idea about either how he's going to deliver a deal, how he's going to propose to get rid of the backstop, or why he's ploughing on with no deal. Easier to avoid that to have to answer difficult questions that he clearly has no clue about.

VinLieger

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If there was a General Erection surely more people would vote for the parties that campaign to Remain? It's just that they would vote partly for Lib Dems, Labour, and other remain parties. The Brexit Party would win a lot of seats, more than any individual Remain Party, but not as many as the combined Remain Parties .

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/

Theres alot to take into account, if brexit hasnt been delivered then yes the brexit party probably splits or steals the tories vote unless they agree on a non compete campaign. I cant see the tories agreeing to that so with first past the post this could mean a remainer majority if the brexit vote is split but nothing is guaranteed as its still seems that thanks to brexit fatigue that leavers are more motivated and active than remainers so nobody really can say what a GE would look like fought on Brexit.

Headshot

The recent Welsh by election should be the blue print for how the remaining parties need to work together and make sure that other remaining parties do not dilute the votes.

I just couldnt see the likes of the Conservatives or the Brexit party doing this and therefor their votes will be weakended