Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

ThePanjandrum

Enzokk wrote: »

And how are you waving Lorries through to France when the stoppage will be at Calais? If I have it correct the vehicles will be checked in France and thus there will be a wait for ferries to be offloaded, which means ferries cannot be loaded or leave the UK. So the problem is not waving them through in Dover, it is having to wait for them to clear in France before they leave the UK.

Right, so when the article says:

Presently, vehicles from EU countries face a delay of around two minutes.

Any delay such as those suggested by the analysis could lead to shortages of goods on shelves and medical supplies in hospitals.

It's talking about the trucks travelling to France, many of which are empty anyway because we import far more goods from the EU than we send there.

Water John

You miss the point (deliberately), that Sky News didn't write the report/analysis. They simply reported it and did some follow up enquiries.
No media org has been criticised for doing their job.
A media outlet expressing an opinion is a different matter.

ThePanjandrum

maebee wrote: »

It doesn't matter which news outlet it was obtained by. The fact is that it is an analysis by Boris Johnson's government.

I haven't seen any confirmation of that yet.

The Yellowhammer leak was claimed to be genuine but this article says that:

Previously, ministers sought to dismiss concerns over leaked documents, especially those related to so-called Operation Yellowhammer preparations for no-deal, as they were written under the May government and apparently did not adequately reflect the increased preparations under the new administration.

Water John

Source? Again you're wrong, it was updated about one month ago.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Right, so when the article says:



It's talking about the trucks travelling to France, many of which are empty anyway because we import far more goods from the EU than we send there.

I am not sure, the problem will be in the UK for trucks leaving to the EU and for trucks coming in. I am no expert, but when two people within the industry basically confirms the same concerns then it would be something to try and hand wave their concerns away. Another quote from the article,

Kevin Green, communications director of the Freight Transport Association, told Sky News: "We have been asking those questions for some time without any response so our concern is that we're going to get much closer.

"And a lot of these issues are caught up in the negotiations and probably won't get agreed until very close to the deadline and then there clearly won't be any time to respond, and delays and impacts will be very worst of the estimates."

You said no hauliers reported any concerns and yet in the article there is quotes from two people in the industry registering their concern. Do you see the problem isn't who is reporting the story but the contents it contains?

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

It's talking about the trucks travelling to France, many of which are empty anyway because we import far more goods from the EU than we send there.

Wouldn't an empty lorry still need paperwork and to be searched by Customs before it could enter the EU? Otherwise, God knows what might be in the back of it.

ThePanjandrum

Water John wrote: »

Parliament can arrest and imprison the PM if he refuses to implement their ruling/law. They have their own Sergeant at Arms and prison, I think.

I know of no such provision. Please give your sources for this and tell me when this supposed power has been exercised.

ThePanjandrum

Strazdas wrote: »

Wouldn't an empty lorry still need paperwork and to be searched by Customs before it could enter the EU? Otherwise, God knows what might be in the back of it.

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

ThePanjandrum

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not sure, the problem will be in the UK for trucks leaving to the EU and for trucks coming in. I am no expert, but when two people within the industry basically confirms the same concerns then it would be something to try and hand wave their concerns away. Another quote from the article,



You said no hauliers reported any concerns and yet in the article there is quotes from two people in the industry registering their concern. Do you see the problem isn't who is reporting the story but the contents it contains?

No, I said:

None of our hauliers has expressed any concern at present.

The company I work for imports goods and materials from the EU and I have spoken to them to ask about any difficulties they anticipate. These are working hauliers.

Akrasia

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I haven't seen any confirmation of that yet.

The Yellowhammer leak was claimed to be genuine but this article says that:

The new administration that’s about 30 seconds old and couldn’t possibly have properly formulated detailed plans never mind have such revolutionary new ideas funded, procured and ready to deploy in 2 months time

Mister Know It Not

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

Depends on what's inside it.

PropJoe10

briany wrote: »

I believe Dominic Grieve has already been threatened with deselection by his local constituency. Given his relative outspokenness on Brexit, his chances of holding his seat are pretty low, so he doesn't have much to lose by voting his conscience.

Nah. Ken Clarke is the same, retiring at the next election I believe. Nothing left to do but vote with his conscience which is what Clarke has always done anyway.

Absolutely mad time in British politics. I literally can't wait for the Commons sitting on Tuesday!

Akrasia

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

No, I said:



The company I work for imports goods and materials from the EU and I have spoken to them to ask about any difficulties they anticipate. These are working hauliers.

Working haulers do not necessarily know the consequences of changes to Britain’s access to the single market, or the consequences of Britain ripping up every EU agreement en masse with nothing to replace them on Halloween 2019. Working haulers are in for a very rude awakening, especially if they are self employed contractors who get paid per job and not by the hour

Water John

Well King Charles 1 as you know, was imprisoned and executed by Parliament.

Akrasia

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

A lot longer than it takes when the lorry can just drive straight off the ferry without having to be searched at all

maebee

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'm taking that with a pinch of salt.. Sky News is notorious for its rabid anti-Brexit line and the last I heard, the Government were prepared to wave lorries through if necessary.

None of our hauliers has expressed any concern at present.

ITV is also rabid anti-Brexit?

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-09-01/supply-chain-concerns-amid-warnings-of-two-day-delays-at-dover/

Strazdas

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

How long does it take to search an empty lorry?

Long enough I would say. We're not talking 15 seconds or something - the lorry would have to queue up with all the others, the driver present papers to Customs and then opens up the back for inspection.

An 'empty lorry' sounds fine in theory, but not when there are thousands of lorries to be checked in a single day.

ThePanjandrum

Akrasia wrote: »

Working haulers do not necessarily know the consequences of changes to Britain’s access to the single market, or the consequences of Britain ripping up every EU agreement en masse with nothing to replace them on Halloween 2019. Working haulers are in for a very rude awakening, especially if they are self employed contractors who get paid per job and not by the hour

They are large companies that I am talking about and (like us) they are members of the Road Hauliers Association.

Rain Ascending

The provenance of the Yellowhammer document is generally regarded to be good. You can dispute whether or not the analysis it contains is correct, but it has been dated to early August, based on the throughput numbers it gives for Dover-Calais. These are actually more optimistic than figures given earlier in the year because of improved facilities at Calais and an apparent agreement to prevent any truck with incorrect paperwork from boarding at Dover. The UK government hasn't disputed this dating -- they've merely described the document as "out of date", which doesn't mean much.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

They are large companies that I am talking about and (like us) they are members of the Road Hauliers Association.

I'd be curious to know what they are basing that opinion on, given that up until very recently, most industry associations were gagged by NDAs and therefore not in a position to share government plans with their members. And it is important to note that in theory, there is a lot a government could do to ensure that critical supplies, food and medicine got through in a timely manner -- but the cost of doing so would be to severely impede trade of non-critical items. These kinds of trade-offs, in a severely delay-sensitive system like Dover-Calais, have not been discussed openly.

fash

Water John wrote: »

Source? Again you're wrong, it was updated about one month ago.

He is aware that it is new, it was repeatedly proved to him yet it repeats the lie- he is begging deliberately dishonest

The official page is up and the public campaign has started apparently.

https://www.gov.uk/brexit

I'm looking at the how to export goods from UK part and my brain is starting to hurt.

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

Tacitus Kilgore

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

You're still wrong thankfully, Ireland's not going to get thrown to the dogs by the EU. We're just lucky we're on the side that has a shred of integrity, if we were on the other side we'd be long since screwed over.

swampgas

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

Isn't that where they are right now though? Any country can walk away from an international agreement any time they feel like it, if they are prepared to accept the repercussions. The UK are fighting the backstop because they want to have their cake and eat it: they want access to the EU on their own terms, unconstrained by the GFA. They are trying to limit the repercussions in advance, for when they trash the GFA.

Isn't it better that they renege on their agreements (including the GFA) up front, right now, when we have maximum leverage, rather than after years of pointless wrangling, having agreed a bad deal? That's a hard call to make, but my gut instinct is to face the issues head on. If we kick the can down the road with a bad compromise, because of a lack of political courage, we might live to regret it.

Shelga

Why is parliament back tomorrow and not today, a Monday?

Nothing major going on, after all, I suppose.

volchitsa

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm starting to feel like the backstop is pointless. They can break it in the future if they want, just like they'll break the GFA if they want.

I posted this here before and people said I was wrong, but I still think the EU could just say "Start with the backstop and end it unilaterally any time you want. If ending it results in a border, all deals between the EU and the UK are immediately voided. Flights, citizens rights, electricity etc. Everything."

That way, there's no trapping the UK. It's just up to them to solve it some time in the future.

Isn't that pretty much the current situation?

The backstop is only applicable in the absence of another workable solution, a safety net which will allow all the other deals to start simultaneously.

The U.K. are refusing to accept that there needs to be that safety net at all because either 1) they are sure there are solutions available (but they can't actually name them) or 2) because they want to be free to do what they want without any threat of the other deals being rescinded because of that.

You choose.

kuro68k

I'm so ashamed, as a Brit, of my government now. Not just the proroguing or the refusal to commit to the rule of law, but the shear cruelty of their immigration policy.

The Guardian is reporting that family reunions for refugees will end on October 31st. That's evil. There is no other word for it. It's nasty and inhumane and pandering to the worst elements of our broken society.

Brexit has broken Britain. It's brought out the worst in people. I despair for my country.

swampgas

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Yep zero sum game from game theory is where we are

The opponent has shown themselves to be completely unreliable, unreasonable and plainly mad. That means compromise choice where both win win is not an option. Only choice for Ireland and EU is the backstop as that maximises our advantage.

But don't forget unlike game theory players there is a giant imbalance between two parties here. Worst case scenario for us is nowhere near as bad as it is for UK.

tl dr UK unlike what they think are not equals to us

Additionally political game theory proponents can go badly wrong if they focus on single stage games, as if Brexit were happening in a vacuum, and forget that in the real world of politics the people you are playing with today are the same ones you played with yesterday and the same ones you will be playing tomorrow - at a nation level anyway.

The key point (from a Brexit POV) is that an organisation like the EU which depends on cooperative strategies has to discourage abusive behaviour from wannabe freeloaders who might try to game the system to their own advantage.

From Wikipedia (my bold):

The most widely studied repeated games are games that are repeated an infinite number of times. In iterated prisoner's dilemma games, it is found that the preferred strategy is not to play a Nash strategy of the stage game, but to cooperate and play a socially optimum strategy. An essential part of strategies in infinitely repeated game is punishing players who deviate from this cooperative strategy. The punishment may be playing a strategy which leads to reduced payoff to both players for the rest of the game (called a trigger strategy). A player may normally choose to act selfishly to increase their own reward rather than play the socially optimum strategy. However, if it is known that the other player is following a trigger strategy, then the player expects to receive reduced payoffs in the future if they deviate at this stage. An effective trigger strategy ensures that cooperating has more utility to the player than acting selfishly now and facing the other player's punishment in the future.

Political strategy in the UK seems be trapped in a winner takes all, divide and conquer mode driven by the FPTP electoral system. If there were more incentive to cooperate at a national level I really think the UK would be better able to navigate its relationship with the EU. But the rest of the EU can't really hang around for the UK to fix a few hundred years of political tradition that is no longer fit for purpose. We are where we are, unfortunately

prawnsambo

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

They are large companies that I am talking about and (like us) they are members of the Road Hauliers Association.

So as members, you should be listening to what they say. Things that they have been saying for three years?

lawred2

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

The company I work for imports goods and materials from the EU and I have spoken to them to ask about any difficulties they anticipate. These are working hauliers.

And they've said they have none!?

That's simply not believable.

On any level.