Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

briany

swampgas wrote: »

But that potential economic success must be terrifying for the DUP. A scenario where NI is successful with a border in the Irish sea, with NI closely aligned with their old enemy across the border, combined with a GB economy likely sunk into recession, would mean that cooperation with Ireland and the EU would be a much more attractive option for many in NI than sticking with Westminster.

Their supporters might start to think the unthinkable, and start to consider whether a united Ireland is really such a bad idea.

Given an existential threat like that, the DUP's attitude is quite predictable. They must feel like they are looking into the abyss.

Hang on - if a load of UK businesses set up in backstopped NI in order to maintain unhindered trade with the EU, the tax money they generate would go back into the UK treasury and therefore mitigate the economic damage that a no-deal might have otherwise caused on the mainland. It would also make NI the darling of the UK, all of a sudden, instead of the red-headed stepchild.

I don't think the DUP are thinking long-term on this. They're only concern is playing to their base. But in that they're failing to recognise that the potential economic disaster of a no-deal for the whole of the UK is probably more fertile ground for a border poll.

Professor Moriarty

McGiver wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn:

Whilst I agree with the Labour policy in general and agree that UK faces huge issues, I maintain he's an idiot and/or a liar - if they crash out there's no way they can fund the 'radical rebuild programme'. None. Zero. And also no time as all focus will be in firefighting.

Corbyn is so bad it would make you cry with frustration. He's locked in his own ideological bubble and can't see the opportunity for Labour that Brexit is bringing.

swampgas

briany wrote: »

Hang on - if a load of UK businesses set up in backstopped NI in order to maintain unhindered trade with the EU, the tax money they generate would go back into the UK treasury and therefore mitigate the economic damage that a no-deal might have otherwise caused on the mainland. It would also make NI the darling of the UK, all of a sudden, instead of the red-headed stepchild.

I really have no idea what would really happen, but no matter how successful NI might be I can't see it being enough to stop the rest of the UK sliding into recession or worse.

I don't think the DUP are thinking long-term on this. They're only concern is playing to their base. But in that they're failing to recognise that the potential economic disaster of a no-deal for the whole of the UK is probably more fertile ground for a border poll.

Quite likely. But the DUP have always been against of any kind of cooperation with Dublin, they need to maintain the demonisation of their old enemies - otherwise they won't know who they are any more.

Stop moaning ffs

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is so bad it would make you cry with frustration. He's locked in his own ideological bubble and can't see the opportunity for Labour that Brexit is bringing.

It was a campaign speech start to finish. He said he would do whatever it takes to stop no deal brexit.

Except step down and hand the reigns over to literally anyone else who would easily kick the Tories into touch in the election.

Tell me how

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It was a campaign speech start to finish. He said he would do whatever it takes to stop no deal brexit.

Except step down and hand the reigns over to literally anyone else who would easily kick the Tories into touch in the election.

Corbyn has been so bad throughout this that Labour are going to get annihilated when next in Government if he is PM. No one will be willing to give them any wiggle room.

The Tories who have had the living daylights kicked out of them for the last 3 years (while being in government) will be smarting and looking to get pay back.

The media who are sick of bluster and waffle (except when they are the sources of it) and the Brexit Party who will likely be mew in the HoC and looking to score some soundbite wins.

I think no one will give too much credence to the Labour position that the Conservatives left a mess behind which is unfair but I think many will see Labour as not having earned some leeway through their (Corbyn's) ineptitude.

ArmaniJeanss

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is so bad it would make you cry with frustration. He's locked in his own ideological bubble and can't see the opportunity for Labour that Brexit is bringing.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It was a campaign speech start to finish. He said he would do whatever it takes to stop no deal brexit.

Except step down and hand the reigns over to literally anyone else who would easily kick the Tories into touch in the election.

I still don't see that turning to full-on revoke/remain/2ndRef gets Labour elected (much as I'd personally approve of that policy).
It might well increase their vote by a good few percentage points, but hell they don't need any more votes in London or Manchester or Liverpool.
But it would cost them votes in marginals in the Midlands, and xyz-On-Sea constituencies on every coast, places they need to win.

Professor Moriarty

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I still don't see that turning to full-on revoke/remain/2ndRef gets Labour elected (much as I'd personally approve of that policy).
It might well increase their vote by a good few percentage points, but hell they don't need any more votes in London or Manchester or Liverpool.
But it would cost them votes in marginals in the Midlands, and xyz-On-Sea constituencies on every coast, places they need to win.

Well, pro-Remain vote numbers have increased according to the polls so that would be a factor in deciding their stance on Brexit when assessing constituencies. As important is that Corbyn will be debating/interviewed on television as will Johnson. Only one winner there when it comes to charisma.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, pro-Remain vote numbers have increased according to the polls so that would be a factor in deciding their stance on Brexit when assessing constituencies. As important is that Corbyn will be debating/interviewed on television as will Johnson. Only one winner there when it comes to charisma.

I'm genuinely unsure who you are talking about here.

Corbyn is nearly a caricature at this point and Johnson can appear like a blustering dishevelled city type.

Neither have them have genuine charisma no matter how much their planted supporters will stomp and holler.

prawnsambo

Interesting article by Alex Andreou about the dangers of intersecting post brexit problems and what effect they may have. As an example, the effect of delays on the road haulage industry. Would haulage companies stop transport to the UK because delays would eat up their entire (very slim) profit margins?

ArmaniJeanss

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, pro-Remain vote numbers have increased according to the polls so that would be a factor in deciding their stance on Brexit when assessing constituencies. As important is that Corbyn will be debating/interviewed on television as will Johnson. Only one winner there when it comes to charisma.

I think the key thing there is 'assessing constituencies', and exactly where the remain vote has increased.

I'm no expert on constituencies.
But obviously Labour get no seats in N Ireland, and are at best underdog in Scotland overall, and Wales is always very split.
So if Labour are to get an overall majority then they probably need 55%-58% of the seats in England.

So does a revoke/remain/2ndRef policy actually help with that. Or is the increase in remain in the polls centred on London/Manc/LPool. If some safe Labour constituency that voted 60% remain is now 65% remain then there is no point in chasing that vote - you already have that seat won.
It's tricky, and obviously they have analysts who do this for them.

But I think we can pay too much attention to poll figures when because of fptp only about 20% of votes are meaningful.

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

I'm genuinely unsure who you are talking about here.

Corbyn is nearly a caricature at this point and Johnson can appear like a blustering dishevelled city type.

Neither have them have genuine charisma no matter how much their planted supporters will stomp and holler.

In the latest Approval Rating poll:

Johnson 40% approval. Net approval rating of +6%
Corbyn: 20% approval. Net approval rating of -40%

In a two horse race, Johnson hammers Corbyn.

Professor Moriarty

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I think the key thing there is 'assessing constituencies', and exactly where the remain vote has increased.

I'm no expert on constituencies.
But obviously Labour get no seats in N Ireland, and are at best underdog in Scotland overall, and Wales is always very split.
So if Labour are to get an overall majority then they probably need 55%-58% of the seats in England.

So does a revoke/remain/2ndRef policy actually help with that. Or is the increase in remain in the polls centred on London/Manc/LPool. If some safe Labour constituency that voted 60% remain is now 65% remain then there is no point in chasing that vote - you already have that seat won.
It's tricky, and obviously they have analysts who do this for them.

But I think we can pay too much attention to poll figures when because of fptp only about 20% of votes are meaningful.

Exactly. Remember, Cameron won a majority with 37% of the votes.

54and56

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn is so bad it would make you cry with frustration. He's locked in his own ideological bubble and can't see the opportunity for Labour that Brexit is bringing.

Where is Keir Starmer? Haven't heard or seen him in months.

reslfj

Peregrinus wrote: »

Just to be clear, you travelling on a (non-CTA) EU passport when you arrived in Ireland (from outside the CTA) and your passport was scanned?

(Not doubting you; just want to make sure I have correctly understood you.)

I was arriving in May from Schengen (Copenhagen via Oslo, Norway). I scanned my passport (selfservice) gates out of Schengen while in transit in Oslo Gardamo. I passed passport control in the airport in Scotland. I can't remember the details of the actual passport procedure, but I firmly believe my passport was scanned.

Peregrinus wrote: »

In a no-deal Brexit, might data-sharing between the Irish and UK authorities have to cease because the UK will no longer be committed to EU data protection standards? And could this cause problems for the operation of the CTA?

I'm sure this could be problematic. But the exchange of passport, arrival and departure data between the two governments within the CTA should be possible, I think.

Lars

Professor Moriarty

54&56 wrote: »

Where is Keir Starmer? Haven't heard or seen him in months.

Locked away in Corbyn's basement with Long-Bailey and Thornberry. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

Tell me how

prawnsambo wrote: »

Interesting article by Alex Andreou about the dangers of intersecting post brexit problems and what effect they may have. As an example, the effect of delays on the road haulage industry. Would haulage companies stop transport to the UK because delays would eat up their entire (very slim) profit margins?

It could be a virtual avalanche of Brexit related snowball problems.

Brexit causes delays
Delays impact profits
Profits impact viability and so company stops delivering
Companys can't get materials and so lose contracts
Lost contracts impact viability and company closes
Company closes leads to unemployment increase
Increased unemployment raises demand on social services
More demand on social services leads to cost cutting elsewhere
Cost cutting reduces NHS budget
Reduced NHS budget means services are unavailable to those in need

The example above reads very dramatic but there most certainly are going to be impacts of Brexit. The phrase, an army marches on it's stomach originated out of the impact things which might have been considered inconsequential can have on the bigger picture.

Tell me how

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

In the latest Approval Rating poll:

Johnson 40% approval. Net approval rating of +6%
Corbyn: 20% approval. Net approval rating of -40%

In a two horse race, Johnson hammers Corbyn.

Agreed. As it stands.

But will Johnson still be on 40% if EU have left him with egg on his face?

Professor Moriarty

Tell me how wrote: »

Agreed. As it stands.

But will Corbyn still be on 40% if EU have left him with egg on his face?

You mean Johnson? Nope. But then it will be too late and he'll be an irrelevance. If they leave with no deal in October, they're gone for a decade. Staying in or negotiating a deal while you are in is vastly different to applying for membership having crashed out. This is the ERG's gameplan.

bilston

Bomb attack overnight in Newtownbutler.

I'm sure we will all recognise the significance of where Newtownbutler is.

Project Fear obviously...

Quin_Dub

prawnsambo wrote: »

Interesting article by Alex Andreou about the dangers of intersecting post brexit problems and what effect they may have. As an example, the effect of delays on the road haulage industry. Would haulage companies stop transport to the UK because delays would eat up their entire (very slim) profit margins?

The implications are widespread.

If trucks (and containers) are taking longer to complete the routes involving the UK because of customs delays it has knock-on impacts across the boards.

I don't have specifics numbers , but imagine for example that a Truck or container is now able to do 10% less shipments each week/month because of the extra delays caused by No-deal Brexit. Are there enough physical Trucks and Containers in operation to accommodate that loss of capacity and productivity?

Stop moaning ffs

Just on shortages, woman on LBC earlier who has cancer and undergoing chemo. She had to produce her passport so it seems the nhs are prioritising British citizens. Understandable to a degree. But her doctors made her aware they’re unsure about the status of supplies for chemotherapy come the 31st.

That’s effing shocking for anyone unfortunate enough to be in that situation.

prawnsambo

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The implications are widespread.

If trucks (and containers) are taking longer to complete the routes involving the UK because of customs delays it has knock-on impacts across the boards.

I don't have specifics numbers , but imagine for example that a Truck or container is now able to do 10% less shipments each week/month because of the extra delays caused by No-deal Brexit. Are there enough physical Trucks and Containers in operation to accommodate that loss of capacity and productivity?

There are also tachograph implications. A lot of what enters the UK is driver accompanied RoRo because it's quick and cheap and there's the added benefit of return loads. But reach the end of the tachograph limit and you have to add either further waiting time or another driver. Costs really escalate then. And the return loads encounter the same problem.

Quin_Dub

prawnsambo wrote: »

There are also tachograph implications. A lot of what enters the UK is driver accompanied RoRo because it's quick and cheap and there's the added benefit of return loads. But reach the end of the tachograph limit and you have to add either further waiting time or another driver. Costs really escalate then. And the return loads encounter the same problem.

Absolutely, all of those delays feed into that lost throughput and capacity..

ballsymchugh

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I think the key thing there is 'assessing constituencies', and exactly where the remain vote has increased.

I'm no expert on constituencies.
But obviously Labour get no seats in N Ireland, and are at best underdog in Scotland overall, and Wales is always very split.
So if Labour are to get an overall majority then they probably need 55%-58% of the seats in England.

So does a revoke/remain/2ndRef policy actually help with that. Or is the increase in remain in the polls centred on London/Manc/LPool. If some safe Labour constituency that voted 60% remain is now 65% remain then there is no point in chasing that vote - you already have that seat won.
It's tricky, and obviously they have analysts who do this for them.

But I think we can pay too much attention to poll figures when because of fptp only about 20% of votes are meaningful.

Corbyn's own constituency voted more for the Lib Dems in the European elections than for Labour, so even safe Labour seats in remain areas are going to be targetted by the remain alliance unless the MP is 100% behind a second referendum. blocking a no deal brexit won't be enough.

ArmaniJeanss

ballsymchugh wrote: »

Corbyn's own constituency voted more for the Lib Dems in the European elections than for Labour, so even safe Labour seats in remain areas are going to be targetted by the remain alliance unless the MP is 100% behind a second referendum. blocking a no deal brexit won't be enough.

Not actually true, but it was quite close. They won Islington but not the constituency of Islington North.

Regardless there is a 40 year history of Euro election results not really translating to GE voting in the UK.

McGiver

prawnsambo wrote: »

Interesting article by Alex Andreou about the dangers of intersecting post brexit problems and what effect they may have. As an example, the effect of delays on the road haulage industry. Would haulage companies stop transport to the UK because delays would eat up their entire (very slim) profit margins?

He's brilliant on Remainiacs as well.
He's spot on on everything and really important he raises the UK media "balance" nonsense - truth cannot be balanced by no amount of bulshíte.

A member of the public calling in to ask whether his European health insurance card will work after a disorderly exit does not require balance. He needs an answer. An insurance expert saying 'well, in the absence of a side deal being struck between now and then, the short answer is 'no'' need not be balanced by a pundit droning on over Skype about 'project fear'.

This is not a contentious issue. It is a factual one. There is only one credible reading of it. The view of someone who has worked in the industry for thirty years is not equilibrant to the pundit who quickly Googled the issue in the green room. But on that day of BBC no-deal coverage, that's exactly what happened.

AbusesToilets

I can't understand why the Labour party hasn't turfed Corbyn out on his ear. He's worse than useless. Deliberately refusing to score an open goal. A perfect moment where service to the nation and political desires are coalescing and he's likely to squander the opportunity and condemn the country to ruin.

Madness.

Stop moaning ffs

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I can't understand why the Labour party hasn't turfed Corbyn out on his ear. He's worse than useless. Deliberately refusing to score an open goal. A perfect moment where service to the nation and political desires are coalescing and he's likely to squander the opportunity and condemn the country to ruin.

Madness.

He’s a eurosceptic down to his bones though. Suits him fine to let the Tories do the dirty work under the delusion he’ll get to be pm afterwards.
Never gonna happen of course.

prawnsambo

AbusesToilets wrote: »

I can't understand why the Labour party hasn't turfed Corbyn out on his ear. He's worse than useless. Deliberately refusing to score an open goal. A perfect moment where service to the nation and political desires are coalescing and he's likely to squander the opportunity and condemn the country to ruin.

Madness.

He has voted against every EU treaty that went through parliament afaik. The method in his madness is that the Tories bring about brexit and take the blame for all the chaos and he rides in on his white charger and builds his worker's utopia on the ashes. And nationalisation is top of his agenda, which of course the pesky EU may have issues with. Among other things obviously. His is just another pick 'n mix EU membership unicorn farm.

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He’s a eurosceptic down to his bones though. Suits him fine to let the Tories do the dirty work under the delusion he’ll get to be pm afterwards.
Never gonna happen of course.

The thing i can't comprehend is yes say he somehow manages to become PM and outside of the EU he can start instituting his socialist utopia, however thanks to being outside of the EU the next Tory government will just tear it apart.


Is he that delusional to believe that once he is in government and has shown everyone how they are living wrong and why his way is better that a right wing government will never ever be elected again?